scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling and Epidemic Prediction of Covid-19 and Its Significance to Epidemic Prevention and Control Measures

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 01-12
Author(s):  
Bin Zhao ◽  
Yichi Li ◽  
Bowen Wang ◽  
Ruiyang Peng ◽  
Chen Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Model Analysis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Background: Since receiving unexplained pneumonia patients at the Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the new coronavirus (COVID-19) has rapidly spread in Wuhan, China and spread to the entire China and some neighboring countries. We establish the dynamics model of infectious diseases and time series model to predict the trend and short-term prediction of the transmission of COVID-19, which will be conducive to the intervention and prevention of COVID-19 by departments at all levels in mainland China and buy more time for clinical trials. Methods: Based on the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 in the population and the implemented prevention and control measures, we establish the dynamic models of the six chambers, and establish the time series models based on different mathematical formulas according to the variation law of the original data. Findings: The results based on time series analysis and kinetic model analysis show that the cumulative diagnosis of pneumonia of COVID-19 in mainland China can reach 36,343 after one week (February 8, 2020), and the number of basic regenerations can reach 4.01. The cumulative number of confirmed diagnoses will reach a peak of 87,701 on March 15, 2020; the number of basic regenerations in Wuhan will reach 4.3, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Wuhan will reach peak at 76,982 on March 20. Whether in Mainland China or Wuhan, both the infection rate and the basic regeneration number of COVID-19 continue to decline, and the results of the sensitivity analysis show that the time it takes for a suspected population to be diagnosed as a confirmed population can have a significant impact on the peak size and duration of the cumulative number of diagnoses. Increased mortality leads to additional cases of pneumonia, while increased cure rates are not sensitive to the cumulative number of confirmed cases. Interpretation: Chinese governments at various levels have intervened in many ways to control the epidemic. According to the results of the model analysis, we believe that the emergency intervention measures adopted in the early stage of the epidemic, such as blocking Wuhan, restricting the flow of people in Hubei province, and increasing the support to Wuhan, had a crucial restraining effect on the original spread of the epidemic. It is a very effective prevention and treatment method to continue to increase investment in various medical resources to ensure that suspected patients can be diagnosed and treated in a timely manner. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, we believe that enhanced treatment of the bodies of deceased patients can be effective in ensuring that the bodies themselves and the process do not result in additional viral infections, and once the pneumonia patients with the COVID-19 are cured, the antibodies left in their bodies may prevent them from reinfection COVID-19 for a longer period of time.

scholarly journals Epidemic prevention and control measures in China significantly curbed the epidemic of COVID-19 and influenza

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang-Sha Kong ◽  
Feng Liu ◽  
Hai-Bo Wang ◽  
Rui-Feng Yang ◽  
Dong-Bo Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Tract ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Spring Festival ◽  
Railway Passenger ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

AbstractAt the end of 2019, an outbreak of unknown pathogen pneumonia occurred in China, then it was named corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19). With the rapid spread of COVID-19, a series of strict prevention and control measures were implemented to cut the spread of the epidemic. Influenza as a respiratory tract infection disease as COVID-19 might also be controlled. To assess the effects, we used the total passenger numbers sent in mainland China from 2018 to 2020 and the daily number of railway passenger (DNRP) flow in 2020 during Spring Festival travel rush to reflect the population movement and further to analyze newly and cumulative confirmed COVID-19 and influenza. We found that with implementing the series measures on COVID-19, not only COVID-19, but also influenza mitigated in China. The prevention and control measures for COVID-19 might be used in controlling respiratory tract diseases, and reducing the national health economic burden. When other countries issue measures on COVID-19 and influenza, they should consider adopting more aggressive epidemic prevention and control strategies.

scholarly journals Changes in Prevalence of Nosocomial Infection Pre- and Post-COVID-19 pandemic from a Tertiary Hospital in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunmei Su ◽  
Zhiqin Zhang ◽  
Xu Zhao ◽  
Hanlin Peng ◽  
Yi Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nosocomial Infection ◽  
Nosocomial Infections ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Gastrointestinal Infections ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Oral Infections ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Nosocomial infections (NIs) are an important cause of mortality, and increasing evidence reveals that the prevalence of NIs can be reduced through effective prevention and control measures. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the prevention and control measures for the COVID-19 pandemic on NIs.Methods: A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the prevalence of NIs before and after COVID-19 pandemic for six months in the Children’s Hospital of Soochow University.Results: A total of 39,914 patients in 2019 and 34,645 patients in 2020 were admitted to the hospital during the study. There were 1.39% (481/34645) of patients with NIs in 2020, which was significantly lower than the 2.56% (1021/39914) of patients in 2019. The rate of critical and fatal cases was also decreased. Except for the ICU, the prevalence of nosocomial infection in most departments decreased from 2019 to 2020. Regarding the source of infections, a significant reduction was mainly observed in respiratory (0.99% vs 0.42%, p=0.000) and digestive tract (0.63% vs 0.14%, p=0.000). The microorganism analysis of respiratory infections indicated an obvious decline in acinetobacters and fungi. The most significant decline of pathogens in gastrointestinal infections was observed for rotavirus. The comparison of catheter-related nosocomial infections between 2019 and 2020 did not show significant differences. Conclusions: The prevention and control measures for the COVID-19 pandemic have reduced the nosocomial infection in almost all departments, except the ICU, mainly regarding respiratory, gastrointestinal, and oral infections, while catheter-related infections did not show any differences.

scholarly journals A knowledge, attitudes, and practices study on ticks and tick-borne diseases in cattle among farmers in a selected area of eastern Bhutan

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0247302
Author(s):  
Jamyang Namgyal ◽  
Tenzin Tenzin ◽  
Sylvia Checkley ◽  
Tim J. Lysyk ◽  
Sangay Rinchen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Favorable Attitude ◽  
Feeding System ◽  
Livestock Farming ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Adequate Knowledge ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Livestock farming plays an important role in supporting the livelihood of resource-poor subsistence farmers in Bhutan. However, ticks and tick-borne diseases (TBDs) are one of the major constraints to livestock farming due to their negative effect on health and production. To date, no study has been conducted in Bhutan to assess farmers’ knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) about ticks and TBDs in cattle, although such information is essential in ensuring the development and adoption of effective prevention and control measures. Therefore, a KAP survey was conducted among 246 cattle owners in the Samkhar sub-district of eastern Bhutan in June 2019, using a structured questionnaire. Based on our scoring criteria, 52% [95%CI: 45.5–58.4] had adequate knowledge about ticks as potential vectors of diseases. Logistic regression analysis showed that the individuals who practiced a stall-feeding system of cattle rearing were 2.8 times [OR = 2.8 (95%CI: 1.66–4.78)] more likely to have adequate knowledge than others. Sixty-eight percent [95%CI: 62.5–74.4] had a favorable attitude toward tick prevention and control programs. Men were 1.95 times [OR = 1.95 (95%CI: 1.09–3.55)] more likely to have a favorable attitude than women, and the individuals who practiced a stall-feeding system were 2.59 times [OR = 2.59 95%CI: 1.45–4.78)] more likely to have a favorable attitude than others, after adjusting for the effect of other variables in the model. Overall, only 38% [95%CI 32.5–45] of the respondents reported tick infestation as one of the most important animal health problems, but 100% reported using acaricides to control ticks in cattle. Despite a high level of acaricide usage, the level of knowledge was low among the farmers interviewed. Findings from this study underline the importance of considering identified knowledge gaps and initiating education efforts to improve the adoption of effective tick prevention and control measures among farmers.

scholarly journals Changes in prevalence of nosocomial infection pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic from a tertiary Hospital in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunmei Su ◽  
Zhiqin Zhang ◽  
Xu Zhao ◽  
Hanlin Peng ◽  
Yi Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nosocomial Infection ◽  
Nosocomial Infections ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Gastrointestinal Infections ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Oral Infections ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Nosocomial infections (NIs) are an important cause of mortality, and increasing evidence reveals that the prevalence of NIs can be reduced through effective prevention and control measures. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the prevention and control measures for the COVID-19 pandemic on NIs. Methods A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the prevalence of NIs before and after COVID-19 pandemic for 6 months in the Children’s Hospital of Soochow University. Results A total of 39,914 patients in 2019 and 34,645 patients in 2020 were admitted to the hospital during the study. There were 1.39% (481/34645) of patients with NIs in 2020, which was significantly lower than the 2.56% (1021/39914) of patients in 2019. The rate of critical and fatal cases was also decreased. In addition, the rate of appropriate handwashing, the number of protective gloves and aprons used per person and the number of healthcare staff per patients were significantly increased. Except for the ICU, the prevalence of nosocomial infection in most departments decreased from 2019 to 2020. Regarding the source of infections, a significant reduction was mainly observed in respiratory (0.99% vs 0.42%, p = 0.000) and digestive tract (0.63% vs 0.14%, p = 0.000). The microorganism analysis of respiratory infections indicated an obvious decline in acinetobacters and fungi. The most significant decline of pathogens in gastrointestinal infections was observed for rotavirus. The comparison of catheter-related nosocomial infections between 2019 and 2020 did not show significant differences. Conclusions The prevention and control measures for the COVID-19 pandemic have reduced the nosocomial infection in almost all departments, except the ICU, mainly regarding respiratory, gastrointestinal, and oral infections, while catheter-related infections did not show any differences.

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Distribution Changes of Human Brucellosis in Inner Mongolia, China, effects of Husbandry and Control Measures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingbo Zhai ◽  
qi zhang ◽  
Ying Wang ◽  
Dali Wang ◽  
Lihua Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Inner Mongolia ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Human Brucellosis ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Distribution ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Policies And Measures ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract BackgroundInner Mongolia has the highest incidence rate, causing great public health and economic losses. A number of policies to guide the prevention and control of human brucellosis had been issued and have made some achievements. Analysis of the distribution characteristics and changes of human brucellosis is important for the targeted prevention and control of this disease.MethodsWe collected various policies and measures related to brucellosis promulgated, and comprehensively analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia from 2005 to 2019 using the Bayesian theory of space-time modeling. ResultsWith the implementation of various policies and measures, great achievements have been made and distribution trends changed. Some western regions have changed into stable or cold-spot counties, and most cities in the eastern region have become hot-spot counties during the time period. The rising trend of risk in three cities is slowing down, while the risk in two cities is growing faster than the overall trend.ConclusionThe effective prevention and control measures are essential. The analysis results of this study may provide a theoretical and scientific basis for the public health department to develop targeted effective prevention and control measures for human brucellosis.

scholarly journals A Spread Model of COVID-19 With Some Strict Anti-epidemic Measures

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Yang ◽  
Zhenhua Yu ◽  
Yuanli Cai
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Spread Dynamics ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract In the absence of specific drugs and vaccines, the best way to control the spread of COVID-19 is to adopt and diligently implement effective and strict anti-epidemic measures. In this paper, a mathematical spread model is proposed based on strict epidemic prevention measures and the known spreading characteristics of COVID-19. The equilibriums and the basic regenerative number of the model are widely analyzed. As a validation, the model is used to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei Province of China for a period of time. The model parameters are estimated and the model is validated by the actual data related to COVID-19 in Hubei. Simulation results show that themodel can accurately describe the spread dynamics of COVID-19. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters is also done to provide the basis for formulating prevention and control measures.

scholarly journals Yulin Children's Hospital's Response to COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Measures and Effects

2020 ◽  
pp. 16-23
Author(s):  
Li Huirong
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Children's Hospital ◽  
Children’S Hospital ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Control Work ◽  
And Control

Objective: Introduce the prevention and control measures and effects during COVID-19, and provide a basis for strengthening the emergency response ability of children's hospitals to respond to public health emergencies. Methods: Introduced the epidemic prevention and control measures of the Children's Hospital of Yulin City, Shaanxi Province from January 22 to July 31, and summarize the prevention and control effects Results: During this period, according to the relevant national guidelines and regulations, the hospital established a reasonable hospital management model, formulated scientific prevention and control plans, and introduced effective prevention and control measures, realizing zero infection among front-line medical workers, zero spread of the epidemic in the hospital, and zero death among confirmed patients in the hospital. Conclusion: The prevention and control work of Yulin Children's hospital has comprehensive overall deployment and effective prevention and control measures, which has certain reference significance for the prevention and control work of large comprehensive children's specialized hospitals.

scholarly journals Questionnaire Survey on the Current Situation and Experience in Prevention and Control Measures at Urology Clinics During the COVID-19 Epidemic in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Liang Zhu ◽  
Hai-Hong Jiang ◽  
Ming-Hui Jiang ◽  
Wen-Li Liu ◽  
Zi-Lu Sheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Questionnaire Study ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
New Normal ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

COVID-19, the coronavirus disease 2019; SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus 2; ACE2, angiotensin converting enzyme 2; S protein, spiked glycoprotein; TMPRSS2, transmembrane serine protease 2; WHO, World Health Organization.Purpose: Although the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, has been viably controlled in China, a new normal in healthcare strategies has become standard in China and worldwide. We conducted a questionnaire study to disseminate the experience from China in terms of urology outpatient prevention and control measures under standardized prevention policies against COVID-19.Participants and Methods: From May 3, 2020 to June 25, 2020, we conducted an anonymous cross-sectional questionnaire study, focused on the status of and experiences with outpatient urology prevention and control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. The targeted respondents were urologists in mainland China, covering all levels of hospitals and clinics.Results: A total of 216 (97%) valid responses were collected. We found that 183 (85%) respondents were from outside of Hubei province in China. One-hundred-and-fifty-eight (73%) respondents believed that SARS-CoV-2 could be detected in urine, and that protection against urine exposure was needed. Over 80% of respondents recommended WeChat application or similar online video meetings for virtual outpatient consultations. The suggested flowcharts and recommendations to prevent new cases were easy to understand and approved by most physicians, which could provide reference for outpatient prevention and control. We still need to make adequate preparations under the new normal of the COVID-19 Epidemic, especially for those suspected of being infected.Conclusions: Although the scientific validation of the questionnaire is limited, it provides a first snapshot of the experiences relating to the prevention and control measures in urology clinics in China, and can inform future policies in this field.

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