scholarly journals Climate change in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1945: observations and possible causes

1998 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 571-575 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. King ◽  
S. A. Harangozo

Temperature records from slations on the west roast of the Antarctic Peninsula show a very high level of interannual variability and, over the last 50 years, larger warming trends than are seen elsewhere in Antarctica. in this paper we investigate the role of atmospheric circulation variability and sea-ice extent variations in driving these changes. Owing to a lack of independent data, the reliability of Antarctic atmospheric analyses produced in the 1950s and 1960s cannot be readily established, but examination of the available data suggests that there has been an increase in the northerly component of the circulation over the Peninsula since the late 1950s. Few observations of sea-ice extent are available prior to 1973, but the limited data available indicate that the ice edge to the west of the Peninsula lay to the north of recently observed extremes during the very cold conditions prevailing in the late 1950s. The ultimate cause of the atmospheric-circulation changes remains to be determined and may lie outside the Antarctic region.

Author(s):  
Hugh W Ducklow ◽  
Karen Baker ◽  
Douglas G Martinson ◽  
Langdon B Quetin ◽  
Robin M Ross ◽  
...  

The marine ecosystem of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) extends from the Bellingshausen Sea to the northern tip of the peninsula and from the mostly glaciated coast across the continental shelf to the shelf break in the west. The glacially sculpted coastline along the peninsula is highly convoluted and characterized by deep embayments that are often interconnected by channels that facilitate transport of heat and nutrients into the shelf domain. The ecosystem is divided into three subregions, the continental slope, shelf and coastal regions, each with unique ocean dynamics, water mass and biological distributions. The WAP shelf lies within the Antarctic Sea Ice Zone (SIZ) and like other SIZs, the WAP system is very productive, supporting large stocks of marine mammals, birds and the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba . Ecosystem dynamics is dominated by the seasonal and interannual variation in sea ice extent and retreat. The Antarctic Peninsula is one among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, having experienced a 2°C increase in the annual mean temperature and a 6°C rise in the mean winter temperature since 1950. Delivery of heat from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has increased significantly in the past decade, sufficient to drive to a 0.6°C warming of the upper 300 m of shelf water. In the past 50 years and continuing in the twenty-first century, the warm, moist maritime climate of the northern WAP has been migrating south, displacing the once dominant cold, dry continental Antarctic climate and causing multi-level responses in the marine ecosystem. Ecosystem responses to the regional warming include increased heat transport, decreased sea ice extent and duration, local declines in ice-dependent Adélie penguins, increase in ice-tolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins, alterations in phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition and changes in krill recruitment, abundance and availability to predators. The climate/ecological gradients extending along the WAP and the presence of monitoring systems, field stations and long-term research programmes make the region an invaluable observatory of climate change and marine ecosystem response.


Author(s):  
Raymond C. Smith ◽  
William R. Fraser

The Antarctic Peninsula, a relatively long, narrow extension of the Antarctic continent, defines a strong climatic gradient between the cold, dry continental regime to its south and the warm, moist maritime regime to its north. The potential for these contrasting climate regimes to shift in dominance from season to season and year to year creates a highly variable environment that is sensitive to climate perturbation. Consequently, long-term studies in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region, which is the location of the Palmer LTER (figure 9.1), provide the opportunity to observe how climate-driven variability in the physical environment is related to changes in the marine ecosystem (Ross et al. 1996; Smith et al. 1996; Smith et al. 1999). This is a sea ice–dominated ecosystem where the annual advance and retreat of the sea ice is a major physical determinant of spatial and temporal change in its structure and function, from total annual primary production to the breeding success and survival of seabirds. Mounting evidence suggests that the earth is experiencing a period of rapid climate change, and air temperature records from the last half century confirm a statistically significant warming trend within the WAP during the past half century (King 1994; King and Harangozo 1998; Marshall and King 1998; Ross et al. 1996; Sansom 1989; Smith et al. 1996; Stark 1994; van den Broeke 1998; Weatherly et al. 1991). Air temperature–sea ice linkages appear to be very strong in the WAP region (Jacka 1990; Jacka and Budd 1991; King 1994; Smith et al. 1996; Weatherly et al. 1991), and a statistically significant anticorrelation between air temperatures and sea ice extent has been observed for this region. Consistent with this strong coupling, sea ice extent in the WAP area has trended down during this period of satellite observations, and the sea ice season has shortened. In addition, both air temperature and sea ice have been shown to be significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which suggests possible linkages among sea ice, cyclonic activity, and global teleconnections.


2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3544-3571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Massom ◽  
Sharon E. Stammerjohn ◽  
Raymond C. Smith ◽  
Michael J. Pook ◽  
Richard A. Iannuzzi ◽  
...  

Abstract Exceptional sea ice conditions occurred in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region from September 2001 to February 2002, resulting from a strongly positive atmospheric pressure anomaly in the South Atlantic coupled with strong negative anomalies in the Bellingshausen–Amundsen and southwest Weddell Seas. This created a strong and persistent north-northwesterly flow of mild and moist air across the WAP. In situ, satellite, and NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis (NNR) data are used to examine the profound and complex impact on regional sea ice, oceanography, and biota. Extensive sea ice melt, leading to an ocean mixed layer freshening and widespread ice surface flooding, snow–ice formation, and phytoplankton growth, coincided with extreme ice deformation and dynamic thickening. Sea ice dynamics were crucial to the development of an unusually early and rapid (short) retreat season (negative ice extent anomaly). Strong winds with a dominant northerly component created an unusually compact marginal ice zone and a major increase in ice thickness by deformation and over-rafting. This led to the atypical persistence of highly compact coastal ice through summer. Ecological effects were both positive and negative, the latter including an impact on the growth rate of larval Antarctic krill and the largest recorded between-season breeding population decrease and lowest reproductive success in a 30-yr Adélie penguin demographic time series. The unusual sea ice and snow cover conditions also contributed to the formation of a major phytoplankton bloom. Unexpectedly, the initial bloom occurred within compact sea ice and could not be detected in Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) ocean color data. This analysis demonstrates that sea ice extent alone is an inadequate descriptor of the regional sea ice state/conditions, from both a climatic and ecological perspective; further information is required on thickness and dynamics/deformation.


2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7570-7585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinghua Ding ◽  
Eric J. Steig

Abstract Significant summer warming over the eastern Antarctic Peninsula in the last 50 years has been attributed to a strengthening of the circumpolar westerlies, widely believed to be anthropogenic in origin. On the western side of the peninsula, significant warming has occurred mainly in austral winter and has been attributed to the reduction of sea ice. The authors show that austral fall is the only season in which spatially extensive warming has occurred on the Antarctic Peninsula. This is accompanied by a significant reduction of sea ice cover off the west coast. In winter and spring, warming is mainly observed on the west side of the peninsula. The most important large-scale forcing of the significant widespread warming trend in fall is the extratropical Rossby wave train associated with tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Winter and spring warming on the western peninsula reflects the persistence of sea ice anomalies arising from the tropically forced atmospheric circulation changes in austral fall.


1988 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 204-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Mulvaney ◽  
David A. Peel

In January 1986, a 133 m ice core, with an estimated age at the bottom of 300-350 years, was collected (using an electromechanical drill) on Dolleman Island (70° 35.2′S, 60°55.5′ W; 398 ma.s.l.; 10 m temperature −16.75°C). The site lies on the east coast of the Antarctic Peninsula and has a continental-type climate dominated by perennial sea ice in the Weddell Sea. The core is being analysed for a range of chemical impurities, in order to assess their potential as indicators of past climate. High-resolution (10-15 samples a−1) continuous profiles of the anionic species Cl−1, NO3 − and SO4 2−, together with the cation Na+, have been measured on a section of the core from 26 to 71 m depth. The core has previously been dated between 0 and 32 m depth using the δ18O profile (Peel and others 1988). Lack of δ18O data for the section 32-71 m forced us to seek an alternative method of dating. Biogenic outgassing of sulphurous gases from the ocean and subsequent photochemical oxidation contribute an excess of sulphate over that derived from the marine aerosol. We show that excess sulphate, calculated as (concentrations in Eq. 1−1 and assuming that all measured Na+ is derived from sea salt), is highly seasonal in character, and annual horizons are well preserved over the whole of the core. This enabled us to determine the chronology to 71 m depth, and date the bottom of this section as 1844 ± 5 years. Cl− is derived mainly from sea salt. Its profile in the core is also seasonal in character, with peaks that tend to occur in late summer, reflecting the period of minimum sea-ice extent in the Weddell Sea, and therefore maximum source area for the uptake of sea salt. From instrumental meteorological records, Limbert (1974) showed that there were three extended periods of warm or cold weather in the Antarctic Peninsula between 1903 and 1944. During the two 4 year cold periods, when the summer break-up of sea ice in the Weddell Sea is likely to have been reduced, we found that the annual flux of Cl− to the Dolleman Island snow-pack was lower than the average. Conversely, the 3 year warm period showed a peak in the values of annual flux of Cl−. We therefore propose that Cl− can be used as a palaeoclimatic indicator for sea-ice extent. Extending our chloride data into the latter half of the nineteenth century (before the earliest continuous instrumental records for the Antarctic), we found three distinct peaks in the values of annual flux of Cl−. We suggest that the period 1850-60 was marked by a decrease in Weddell Sea ice extent (due perhaps to a warm period), followed by an extended period of increased sea ice. There were then two periods of much-reduced sea ice during (approximately) 1885-1890 and 1895-1900, with an intervening period of greatly increased ice coverage. These events are in good agreement with the warm and cold periods which Aristarain and others (1986) identified in the deuterium profile from James Ross Island.


1988 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 204-205
Author(s):  
Robert Mulvaney ◽  
David A. Peel

In January 1986, a 133 m ice core, with an estimated age at the bottom of 300-350 years, was collected (using an electromechanical drill) on Dolleman Island (70° 35.2′S, 60°55.5′ W; 398 ma.s.l.; 10 m temperature −16.75°C). The site lies on the east coast of the Antarctic Peninsula and has a continental-type climate dominated by perennial sea ice in the Weddell Sea. The core is being analysed for a range of chemical impurities, in order to assess their potential as indicators of past climate.High-resolution (10-15 samples a−1) continuous profiles of the anionic species Cl−1, NO3− and SO42−, together with the cation Na+, have been measured on a section of the core from 26 to 71 m depth. The core has previously been dated between 0 and 32 m depth using the δ18O profile (Peel and others 1988). Lack of δ18O data for the section 32-71 m forced us to seek an alternative method of dating.Biogenic outgassing of sulphurous gases from the ocean and subsequent photochemical oxidation contribute an excess of sulphate over that derived from the marine aerosol. We show that excess sulphate, calculated as(concentrations in Eq. 1−1 and assuming that all measured Na+ is derived from sea salt), is highly seasonal in character, and annual horizons are well preserved over the whole of the core. This enabled us to determine the chronology to 71 m depth, and date the bottom of this section as 1844 ± 5 years.Cl− is derived mainly from sea salt. Its profile in the core is also seasonal in character, with peaks that tend to occur in late summer, reflecting the period of minimum sea-ice extent in the Weddell Sea, and therefore maximum source area for the uptake of sea salt. From instrumental meteorological records, Limbert (1974) showed that there were three extended periods of warm or cold weather in the Antarctic Peninsula between 1903 and 1944. During the two 4 year cold periods, when the summer break-up of sea ice in the Weddell Sea is likely to have been reduced, we found that the annual flux of Cl− to the Dolleman Island snow-pack was lower than the average. Conversely, the 3 year warm period showed a peak in the values of annual flux of Cl−. We therefore propose that Cl− can be used as a palaeoclimatic indicator for sea-ice extent.Extending our chloride data into the latter half of the nineteenth century (before the earliest continuous instrumental records for the Antarctic), we found three distinct peaks in the values of annual flux of Cl−. We suggest that the period 1850-60 was marked by a decrease in Weddell Sea ice extent (due perhaps to a warm period), followed by an extended period of increased sea ice. There were then two periods of much-reduced sea ice during (approximately) 1885-1890 and 1895-1900, with an intervening period of greatly increased ice coverage. These events are in good agreement with the warm and cold periods which Aristarain and others (1986) identified in the deuterium profile from James Ross Island.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2429-2452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao-Yuan Yang ◽  
Jiping Liu ◽  
Yongyun Hu ◽  
Radley M. Horton ◽  
Liqi Chen ◽  
...  

Abstract. This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multi-model spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3–7 years), but there is a re-emerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6–8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.


Author(s):  
C. Moffat ◽  
M. Meredith

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a highly productive marine ecosystem where extended periods of change have been observed in the form of glacier retreat, reduction of sea-ice cover and shifts in marine populations, among others. The physical environment on the shelf is known to be strongly influenced by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current flowing along the shelf slope and carrying warm, nutrient-rich water, by cold waters flooding into the northern Bransfield Strait from the Weddell Sea, by an extensive network of glaciers and ice shelves, and by strong seasonal to inter-annual variability in sea-ice formation and air–sea interactions, with significant modulation by climate modes like El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. However, significant gaps have remained in understanding the exchange processes between the open ocean and the shelf, the pathways and fate of oceanic water intrusions, the shelf heat and salt budgets, and the long-term evolution of the shelf properties and circulation. Here, we review how recent advances in long-term monitoring programmes, process studies and newly developed numerical models have helped bridge these gaps and set future research challenges for the WAP system. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change’.


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