The risk assessment of manufacturing supply chains based on Bayesian networks with uncertainty of demand

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Mengjun Meng ◽  
Qiuyun Lin ◽  
Yingming Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Information Sharing ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Demand Uncertainty ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Uncertain Demand ◽  
Manufacturing Supply Chain

The great changes in the external environment of the manufacturing supply chain make its demand more complex and difficult to control. This paper takes China as an example. According to questionnaire survey and principal component analysis, the risk indicators caused by uncertain demand are screened and classified to construct evaluation system and complete risk identification. The Bayesian network integrating fuzzy set theory and left and right fuzzy ranking is used to explore the relationship between risk indicators and supply chain to achieve risk evaluation. In view of the highest risk factors, an incentive mechanism model based on information sharing is put forward to prove theoretically that information sharing is an important strategy to reduce risk. The results are as follows: The uncertain demand will lead to a high level of risk in China’s manufacturing supply chain, in which the level of information technology is the biggest cause. Only when manufacturing enterprises are willing to share information and other node enterprises join the information sharing team, can demand uncertainty be fundamentally reduced. The proposed risk assessment model realizes the method innovation and theoretical innovation. It can practical and effectively help relevant enterprises to determine and control risks.

A Study of e-Commerce Transaction Risk Assessment Model in Mobile Internet

2021 ◽  
pp. 789-799
Author(s):  
Zhihong Huang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Technology ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Mobile Terminal ◽  
Mobile Internet ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Continuous Development

With the continuous development of information technology, mobile e-commerce as a new economic and industrial mode has brought great benefits to the society. Mobile e-commerce does not need to bear the constraints of time and place, which has brought great benefits to the enterprise, from the point of trading, mobile e-commerce relies on convenient mobile terminal devices to provide convenience and unlimited trading environment for the user. However, there is a certain risk, mobile e-commerce is different from traditional e-commerce. It may bring many new problems and risks, and may lead to serious economic loss. So how to make reasonable assessment of mobile e-commerce transaction risk and then select strategy to minimize the risk is very important for the development of mobile e-commerce. In this paper, the risk of mobile e-commerce transactions is analyzed firstly, and then it uses a reasonable evaluation system to build a mobile e-commerce transactions risk assessment model. Finally, with the fact, it shows that the model has good feasibility and practical application value.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment and Monitoring of Green Logistics for Fresh Produce Based on a Support Vector Machine

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7569
Author(s):  
Guoquan Zhang ◽  
Guohao Li ◽  
Jing Peng
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Fresh Produce ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Cold Chain ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Monitoring Model ◽  
Assessment And Monitoring

The sustainability and profitability of fresh produce supply chains are contingent upon several risk factors. This work, therefore, examines several risk indicators that affect the quality and safety of fresh produce in transit, including technological, biological, sustainability, environmental, and emergency risks. Then, we developed a risk assessment and monitoring model that employs a machine learning algorithm, a support vector machine, based on historical monitoring data. The proposed methodology was then applied to simulation and numerical analysis to assess the risks incurred in the strawberry cold chain. After training, the algorithm predicted the risks incurred during transportation with an average accuracy of 90.4%. Therefore, the developed methodology can effectively and accurately perform a risk assessment. Furthermore, the risk assessment model can be applied to other fresh produce due to comprehensive risk indicators. Decision-makers in fresh produce logistics companies can use the developed methodology to identify and mitigate risks incurred, thus improving food safety, reducing product loss, maximizing profits, and realizing sustainable development.

Dynamic safety prewarning mechanism of human–machine–environment using computer vision

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 1813-1833 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenpei Xu ◽  
Ting-Kwei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Computer Vision ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Safety Information ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels

PurposeThis study provides a safety prewarning mechanism, which includes a comprehensive risk assessment model and a safety prewarning system. The comprehensive risk assessment model is capable of assessing nine safety indicators, which can be categorised into workers’ behaviour, environment and machine-related safety indicators, and the model is embedded in the safety prewarning system. The safety prewarning system can automatically extract safety information from surveillance cameras based on computer vision, assess risks based on the embedded comprehensive risk assessment model, categorise risks into five levels and provide timely suggestions.Design/methodology/approachFirstly, the comprehensive risk assessment model is constructed by adopting grey multihierarchical analysis method. The method combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the grey clustering evaluation in the grey theory. Expert knowledge, obtained through the questionnaire approach, contributes to set weights of risk indicators and evaluate risks. Secondly, a safety prewarning system is developed, including data acquisition layer, data processing layer and prewarning layer. Computer vision is applied in the system to automatically extract real-time safety information from the surveillance cameras. The safety information is then processed through the comprehensive risk assessment model and categorized into five risk levels. A case study is presented to verify the proposed mechanism.FindingsThrough a case study, the result shows that the proposed mechanism is capable of analyzing integrated human-machine-environment risk, timely categorising risks into five risk levels and providing potential suggestions.Originality/valueThe comprehensive risk assessment model is capable of assessing nine risk indicators, identifying three types of entities, workers, environment and machine on the construction site, presenting the integrated risk based on nine indicators. The proposed mechanism, which adopts expert knowledge through Building Information Modeling (BIM) safety simulation and extracts safety information based on computer vision, can perform a dynamic real-time risk analysis, categorize risks into five risk levels and provide potential suggestions to corresponding risk owners. The proposed mechanism can allow the project manager to take timely actions.

A Study of e-Commerce Transaction Risk Assessment Model in Mobile Internet

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Zhihong Huang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Technology ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Mobile Terminal ◽  
Mobile Internet ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Continuous Development

With the continuous development of information technology, mobile e-commerce as a new economic and industrial mode has brought great benefits to the society. Mobile e-commerce does not need to bear the constraints of time and place, which has brought great benefits to the enterprise, from the point of trading, mobile e-commerce relies on convenient mobile terminal devices to provide convenience and unlimited trading environment for the user. However, there is a certain risk, mobile e-commerce is different from traditional e-commerce. It may bring many new problems and risks, and may lead to serious economic loss. So how to make reasonable assessment of mobile e-commerce transaction risk and then select strategy to minimize the risk is very important for the development of mobile e-commerce. In this paper, the risk of mobile e-commerce transactions is analyzed firstly, and then it uses a reasonable evaluation system to build a mobile e-commerce transactions risk assessment model. Finally, with the fact, it shows that the model has good feasibility and practical application value.

Exploring information sharing in the extended supply chain: an interdependence perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 455-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joakim Kembro ◽  
Kostas Selviaridis
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Information Sharing ◽  
Demand Uncertainty ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Shared Information ◽  
Meta Information

Purpose – This paper aims to empirically explore demand-related information sharing in the extended supply chain. Design/methodology/approach – Through a single, embedded case design, a range of methods are used to collect data from companies representing three different supply chain tiers, including focal company, first-tier suppliers and first-tier customers. The collected data are analysed through the theoretical lens of interdependence. Findings – The findings indicate that the supply chain actors adapt information sharing to the pooled, serial or reciprocal type of interdependence. Information sharing is thus increased with key dyadic partners representing, for example, unique offerings and high market shares as percentage of total expenditure/sales. The study also unearths several barriers to information sharing beyond dyadic ties, including problems related to dis-aggregated, misinterpreted and/or incomplete information. Research limitations/implications – The study empirically contributes to the existing literature by exploring information sharing in the extended supply chain and by suggesting different approaches to information sharing depending on the type and intensity of interdependence between supply chain partners. Further, the paper contributes to the existing literature on barriers of information sharing in supply chains by identifying barriers specific to multi-tier information sharing. “Meta-information” (i.e. information about the shared information) is needed to overcome some of the barriers of sharing information in cases of weak, pooled interdependencies in the supply chain. Practical implications – Similar to previous empirical research, this exploratory study indicates that companies, in general, refrain from sharing information beyond dyadic ties. Supply chain managers would instead mostly focus on stronger, reciprocal interdependencies and emphasise dyadic information sharing. To further guide managers, a demand profiling framework considering market share and demand uncertainty is presented. It may be interesting to engage in multi-tier information sharing in particular cases where strong interdependence exists between three or more partners. Originality/value – This study contributes to existing research on information sharing in supply chains by empirically studying information sharing in an extended supply chain, applying interdependence theory as its analytical framework and unearthing several barriers that are specific to multi-tier information sharing.

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