scholarly journals The Relationship Between Increased Debt Ratio and Economic Growth in the European Union: The Granger Causality Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-94
Author(s):  
Ádám Marton
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Reverse Direction ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Relationship

Increased government debt rates in recent years can be easily financed in the current global economic environment characterised by liquidity abundance. Nevertheless, the  debt ratios represent a potential threat under the surface,  which could lead to significant macroeconomic problems in  the future. The purpose of the paper is to contribute to the  debate in the empirical studies between public debt and  economic growth, as well as external debt and economic  growth. During the analyses, the relationship between  variables was examined using the panel Granger causality  test with the Dumitrescu–Hurlin test in the Member States  of the European Union. The main findings of the study are  that there is a unidirectional causal effect between public  debt and economic growth, that is, only debt impacts on  the economic growth. In case of external debt and  economic growth there is also a unidirectional effect, but it  is in the reverse direction. In addition, the pre-crisis and  post-crisis period was also examined, on the basis of which  it can be concluded that before the crisis, the nature of the  relationship was bidirectional between public debt and  economic growth, whereas after the crisis the debt had an  impact on the economy growth, and the reverse effect does  not exist.

The Relationship Between Stock Market Indices of the Biggest Six Economies of the European Union and BIST 100

2020 ◽  
pp. 257-275
Author(s):  
Serdar Ögel ◽  
Fatih Temizel
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Var Model ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter examines the relationship between stock market indices of the biggest six economies of the European Union and BIST 100. In this context, this study used the daily time series regarding indices of DAX for Germany, CAC 40 for France, FTSE MIB for Italy, IBEX 35 for Spain, AEX for Holland, FTSE 100 for United Kingdom, and BIST 100 for Turkey from 2014 to 2018. To test whether there is a co-integration relationship among indices, Johansen co-integration test was used. Since a co-integration relationship was not found between series, causality relationship between the European stock market indices and Turkey was tested with Granger causality test by establishing standard VAR model. As a result, a unidirectional Granger causality relationship was found from DAX, FTSE 100, CAC 40, IBEX 35, and AEX to BIST 100 according to lag length 1 and 2. However, a unidirectional Granger causality relationship was only found from FTSE MIB to BIST 100 for lag length 1. For lag length 1 and 2, no causality relationship was found from BIST 100 to the selected European stock market indices.

Financial Globalization and Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
pp. 99-116
Author(s):  
Murat Gündüz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Financial Globalization ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between financial development and economic growth is one of the interesting topics of economic researches. Financial globalization is a term used to open up capital markets to the international arena and to capitalize on developed countries to developing countries. This chapter investigates the causality relationship between financial globalization and economic growth. In this study, the panel causality test of Emirmahmutoğlu and Kose (2011) was used for the European Union countries by using data from 1996-2016 period. According to the causality analysis conducted for the European Union, there is a causality from general financial globalization index to economic growth, from de facto financial globalization to economic growth and from economic growth to De jure financial globalization index.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals FDI and Economic Growth in EU13 Countries: Cointegration and Causality Tests

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
European Union ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Foreign direct investments are seen as a prerequisite for gaining and maintaining competitiveness. The research objective of this study is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in “new” European Union member countries using various unit root, cointegration, as well as causality tests. The paper employs annual data for FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) from 2002 to 2018 for the 13 most recent members of European Union (EU13): Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. An estimated panel ARDL (PMG) model found evidence that there is a long-run equilibrium between the LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series, with the rate of adjustment back to equilibrium between 3.27% and 20.67%. In the case of the LogFDI series, long-run coefficients are highly statistically significant in all four models, varying between 0.0828 and 0.3019. These coefficients indicate that a 1% increase in LogFDI increases LogGDP between 0.0828% and 0.3019%. Results of a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that a relationship between the GDP growth rate and FDI growth rate is only indirect. Finally, only weak evidence was shown that FDI had a statistically significant impact on GDP in the EU13 countries over the period 2002-2018. This report of findings contributes to the literature concerning FDI and economic growth, namely regarding the current understanding of the relationship between these two factors.

scholarly journals ODA and Provincial Economic Growth in Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dang Ngoc Duc ◽  
Do Thi Ngoc Lan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test

The focal point of this paper is focused on assessing the causal relationship between ODA and economic growth in the localities of Vietnam. This research uses panel data of ODA and GDP from 63 provinces of Vietnam by using Granger Causality test. The results showed that ODA has a causal effect on economic growth (GDP) and vice versa, economic growth decides to attract ODA in provinces in Vietnam. This result complements studies on the causal relationship between ODA and economic growth using new empirical evidence through case studies in the provinces of Vietnam.

Government expenditure and economic growth in the European Union countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gitana Dudzevičiūtė ◽  
Agnė Šimelytė ◽  
Aušra Liučvaitienė
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide more reliable estimates of the relationship between government spending and economic growth in the European Union (EU) during the period of 1995-2015. Design/methodology/approach The methodology consisted of several different stages. In the first stage for an assessment of dynamics of government spending and economic growth indicators over two decades, descriptive statistics analysis was employed. Correlation analysis helped to identify the relationships between government expenditures (GEs) and economic growth. In the third stage, for modeling the relationship and the estimation of causality between GE and economic growth, Granger causality testing was applied. Findings The research indicated that eight EU countries have a significant relationship between government spending and economic growth. Research limitations/implications This study has been bounded by general GE and economic growth only. The breakdowns of general GE on the basis of the activities they support have not been considered in this paper, which is the main limitation of the research. Despite the limitation, it might be maintained that the research highlights key relationships in the EU countries. Originality/value These insights might be useful for policy makers. In countries with unidirectional causality running from GE to economic growth, the government can employ expenditure as a factor for growth. The governments should ensure that resources are properly managed and efficiently allocated to accelerate economic growth in the countries with unidirectional causality from GDP to GE.

Fiscal Decentralization and Public debt in the European Union

10.4335/171 ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lenka Horváthová ◽  
Julius Horváth ◽  
Vladimír Gazda ◽  
Matúš Kubák
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Public ◽  
Small Countries ◽  
Average Size ◽  
The Relationship

This paper analyses the relationship between fiscal decentralization and the level of the public debt in the twenty seven member countries of the European Union. Our panel data analysis points to the importance of size as fiscal decentralization reduces public debt in large and small countries, but not in medium - size countries. In addition, our results show that the number of government levels and average size of the lowest government unit is insignificant with respect to the public debt in these countries.

scholarly journals Causality of Economic Growth and Openness in ASEAN-5

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-09
Author(s):  
Yarlina Yacoub ◽  
Nindya Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Relationship

Objective - This study aims to determine the relationship between FDI and trade and its effect on economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries using the Engel-Granger causality method. Methodology/Technique - The study uses OLS panel regression analysis to identify the relationship between the variables in each country. The results of the Engel-Granger causality test indicate that there is a two-way relationship between economic growth and FDI, and economic growth and international trade. Findings - When tested together through panel regression, it is concluded that the best model is a random effect method (REM) in which FDI and international trade significantly influence economic growth in the same direction. However, the relationship between FDI and international trade and its effect on economic growth in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand was negative, whilst in Malaysia and Singapore the relationship has a directional trend. Novelty - To reinforce the FDI inflows, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers, and increase the sophistication of quality exports to compete in the global market. This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the ASEAN5 economies using panel analysis. Type of Paper: Empirical. Keywords: Economic Growth; FDI; Openness; Engle-Granger Causality. JEL Classification: F02, F10, F41. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.1(1)

scholarly journals The human capital rationale behind the economic growth of the European Union countries: application of the advanced methods to enhance an efficiency of national human capital stocks

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-48
Author(s):  
Iuliia A. Stabinskaite
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
The European Union ◽  
National Human ◽  
Dimensional Assessment ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Eu

Human capital is an important factor of economic growth, as has been underlined by recent theoretical models. The main goal of this article is to elucidate the relationship between human capital and dynamics of economic growth in the European Union (EU). For the purposes of this article human capital is defined as knowledge, skills as well as other individual factors which lead to higher productivity. Therefore, the greatest attention is focused on the multi-dimensional assessment of human capital in the processes of economic development of the European countries. A detailed evaluation of human capital in the EU is represented at interregional and international levels. Furthermore, author suggests a guidance for designing and planning strategies aimed at sustainable economic development by using the model predictive control algorithms.

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