Import substitution contribution to Russia’s economic growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 58-78
Author(s):  
A. V. Gotovsky
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Domestic Products

Import substitution becomes a hot topic in Russia every time world oil prices fall and the exchange rate of the ruble weakens. Since 2014, it has become a key area of state economic policy. Despite this, various indicators for assessing this phenomenon in the Russian economy have different trends and do not allow to make a clear conclusion about the results achieved. There is also no comprehensive assessment of the impact on economic growth. The paper analyzes approaches to the construction of relevant indicators, taking into account the model tools of the inter-industry balance, offers a macroeconomic method for decomposing GDP growth in the areas of its final use, with the allocation of the contribution of import substitution by increasing the availability of finished domestic products, and localization of production, domestic import substitution, and export-oriented one. Based on the results of calculating the corresponding indicators for 1996—2019, the conclusion is made about the significance of this factor for the dynamics of economic growth in Russia, especially in the periods of high volatility of economic environment. A deliberately high error of forecasts is noted when applying the traditional approach of GDP decomposition from the final demand side, which assumes the preservation in the short term of the proportions of consumption between domestic and imported finished products, materials and components.

scholarly journals Research on the Impact of International Oil Prices on the Economy of Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03006
Author(s):  
Jiuxia Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Income Determination ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In the process of Russian economic development, the oil industry is one of the important pillar industries. More than 50% of the total revenue of the Russian government comes from the oil and gas industry. Oil and oil products exports account for about 56.9% of Russia’s total export[1]. So Russia’s economy is inextricably linked to oil prices. Rosneft’s role in budgetary revenue sources is growing. In the development of the world economy, the change of international oil price affects the development of the Russian economy. This paper reviews the relevant theories about the relationship between oil price and Russia’s economic growth. Besides, the short-term and long-term effects of oil price fluctuation on Russian economy are analyzed with Keynes’s income determination theory and “resource Curse” theory[2] respectively. In addition, the granger causality test is used to analyze the relationship between the fluctuation of oil price and the change of Russian GDP. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis. Firstly, oil price rise is beneficial to Russian economic growth in the short term, but will hinder Russia’s economic long-term development. Secondly, the fluctuation of oil price is the granger cause of the change of Russian GDP. However, the change of Russian GDP is not the granger cause of the fluctuation of oil price.

Dependency of the Russian industry on imports and the strategy of import substitution industrialization

2015 ◽  
pp. 103-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Berezinskaya ◽  
A. Vedev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Russian Industry ◽  
Import Substitution Industrialization

In the context of slowly increasing domestic demand, import substitution industrialization is urged to become the driver of economic growth already in the short term. Replacement of foreign import production with domestic equivalents will be essentially determined by the character of the economy dependency on imports. The paper proposes the analysis of perspectives and potential ways of addressing the issue of import substitution in order to lessen the degree of Russian economy dependency on imports.

Methodological Approaches to Assessing the Impact of Import Substitution on Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 26-32
Author(s):  
N. Talalaeva ◽  
A. Litvinova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Composite Indicator ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Components Method ◽  
The Impact

Import substitution provide multidirectional impact on the economy, accompanied by both positive and negative effects, nevertheless, import substitution, is a leading tool to overcome most unfavorable events in the country's economic system, which extremely aggravated in the first half of 2020. It is possible to force the development of import substitution's positive effects if there is a clear quantitative assessment of its effectiveness in terms of its impact on the growth of the Russian economy. Based on a generalization and analysis of the methods and tools for assessing the impact of import substitution on the economy used by domestic and foreign authors in their studies, scientific-methodological approaches to such an impact were identified. In model approach, an author’s assessment methodology has been developed. At the first stage using an expanded system of import substitution effectiveness indicators, which grouped by sectors of the economy, a composite indicator of the effectiveness is formed by means of principal components method. At the second stage the dependence of economic growth on a composite indicator of import substitution effectiveness is formed by means of correlation and regression analysis. General government of the economy can use our technique to shape an economic development strategy under the import substitution.

Econometric estimation of the impact of oil prices shock on the Russian economy in VECM model

2017 ◽  
pp. 27-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Polbin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Negative Contribution ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Economic Boom ◽  
The Impact

The paper estimates terms of trade shock influence on the Russian output, gross investment and consumption using VECM model with exogenous variables. As a proxy for terms of trade we use oil prices. Empirical results demonstrate that a permanent oil price increase led to a short-run economic boom followed by a negative contribution to economic growth.

Russia’s fiscal stimulus and fiscal sustainability

2013 ◽  
pp. 90-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Akindinova ◽  
N. Kondrashov ◽  
A. Cherniavsky
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Russia. Fiscal multipliers for various items of government spending are calculated by means of our macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. Resources for fiscal stimulus and optimization are analyzed. In this study we assess Russia’s fiscal sustainability in conditions of various levels of oil prices. We conclude that fiscal stimulus is ineffective in Russia, while fiscal sustainability in conditions of a sharp drop in oil prices is relatively low.

scholarly journals Econometric models for estimating current and forecast values of the level of human capital development in the Russian economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-67
Author(s):  
Nina Baranova ◽  
Sergey Larin ◽  
Evgeny Khrustalyov
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Human Capital Development ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The Impact

Studies of factors of sustainable economic development in modern conditions are highly relevant for Russia due to the constant increase and tightening of sanctions restrictions. They have a negative impact on the introduction of innovative developments and economic growth, and reduce the competitiveness of Russian enterprises and their products on world markets. Human capital can become one of the key factors for countering sanctions restrictions, improving the efficiency of economic development and gaining additional competitive advantages for domestic enterprises and the economy as a whole. Assessing the impact of human capital on the sustainable development of the economy is difficult, since it is one of the specific forms of capital. When making appropriate measurements, economic scientists rely on a number of developed theoretical methods and practical tools that support them, which allow us to obtain fairly accurate values of the human capital development index (HDI) based on statistical data. First of all, this is the current UN methodology for calculating the HDI indicator, as well as modern software systems OriginPro-8.6 and Eviews-10.0, which have sufficiently advanced functionality for performing calculations. Russia today has all the necessary prerequisites and opportunities for progressive social and economic development. However, the formation of econometric models will help to timely determine the current and forecast values of the level of human capital development for individual enterprises, industries, and the country’s economy as a whole. This paper shows the practical application of the econometric tools of all the above approaches to obtain the calculated values of the HDI indicator for different time periods and different scenarios for the development of the Russian economy. The results obtained confirmed the high practical significance of the tools used and the acceptable accuracy of the calculations. However, the current and forecast values of the level of human capital development alone will not be able to ensure the effective development of the Russian economy. On the contrary, the effective use of human capital in the implementation of import substitution strategies and national projects will allow our country to become one of the world’s leading economic development countries.

Integration of Manufacturing, Science and Education as a Basis for the Re-Industrialization of Russia

2015 ◽  
pp. 94-104
Author(s):  
S. Bodrunov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Domestic Industry ◽  
Technological Basis ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Science And Education ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Manufacturing Science

The article investigates the problems that Russian industry has encountered during the period of economic reforms. The author explores the reasons for the competitiveness decrease and contradictions that hinder the modernization of the domestic industry. Based on the analysis the principal concept is posed of the need in the implementation of the strategy of re-industrialization in Russia on a new technological basis. The basic directions of re-industrialization, the mechanisms of its implementation, as well as the impact on import substitution are considered. Substantial attention is paid to the risks inherent in a re-industrialization of Russia and the ways to overcome them. In recent years, geo-political and geo-economic challenges to the Russian economy and society greatly exacerbated the contradictions that emerged in the previous decades of economic evolution. During a long period of time the country tried to implement an economic policy intended, in principle, at achieving the strategic goal of creating a modern socially-oriented market economy on the base of modernization. However, the practical tools for implementation of this course – first of all, the ideology of “market fundamentalism” combined with the remaining powerful black market and “hand steering” by the government – caused stagnation and further de-industrialization of the country with inevitably negative implications for the manufacturing, science, education, human capital. Most recently, the Russian economy faced additional problems, namely, the Western sanctions, world economic slump and decline in world oil prices. That is why significant changes in the objectives and tools of economic policy are so urgent.

Breakthrough Technologies: New Directions in Economic and Social Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 1227-1235
Author(s):  
V. D. Ardzinov ◽  
N. V. Chepachenko ◽  
A. A. Leont’ev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Impact

The presented study examines the comparative characteristics of industrial revolution targets, national goals, and strategic objectives for the development of the Russian economy; proposes methods for measuring and evaluating technological development; describes its impact on economic growth and shows the performance of enterprises.Aim. The study aims to determine the specific features of formation of economic and social development targets and the potential of new technologies, including breakthrough technologies, for shaping the technological development of the Russian economy; to propose methods for measuring and evaluating technological development and its impact on the growth and development of the national economy that would improve the quality of economic and managerial decision-making.Tasks. The authors clarify the interpretation of the concept of breakthrough technologies; identify distinctive features in the formation of industrial revolution targets and priority targets for the development of the Russian economy; substantiate methodological approaches to identifying parameters and indicators, methods for measuring and evaluating the level of technological development, its impact on the results of changes in economic growth and development of the national economy and its economic entities.Methods. The authors use the methods of scientific research, theoretical and comparative analysis, synthesis, generalization, general theory of economic growth, and elements of the economic efficiency theory.Results. The interpretation of breakthrough technologies as dominant new technologies that can ensure accelerated progressive development of the economy and minimize damage to the natural environment is clarified. The distinctive features of formation of industrial revolution targets and their relationship with the targets for the development of the Russian economy are identified. Evaluative features are substantiated; indicators for measuring and evaluating the transformation of the technological development of enterprises engaged in different activities and indicators for measuring and evaluating the impact of new technologies, including breakthrough technologies, on economic growth and development are proposed. The influence of the recommended measurement and evaluation methods on improving the quality of management decisions is shown.Conclusions. The study substantiates the need to improve methods for assessing the actual achieved (projected, planned) level of technological development as a necessary prerequisite for its qualitative analysis, evaluation, control, and monitoring required to make sound economic and managerial decisions. The proposed methods for measuring and evaluating technological development, measuring and evaluating the impact of new technologies, including breakthrough technologies, on the quality of economic growth, efficiency and competitiveness of the national economy (region, industry, activity, enterprises) improve the quality of managerial decision-making in achieving national goals for the development of the national economy.

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