How to secure external sustainability of the russian economy

2013 ◽  
pp. 4-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gurvich ◽  
I. Prilepskiy
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Growth Trajectory ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
External Imbalances ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
External Sustainability

The paper looks into emergence of external imbalances and economy’s adjustment to them. We find that Russian economy adjusts mainly via increase or decrease of domestic demand (resulting in substantial risks and losses of production), while capacity of adjustment via exchange rate channel is very limited. Another conclusion is that long-term growth rate compatible with external sustainability amounts to just 2,2%. Any attempts to boost growth above this level, not supported with profound structural reforms, would entail regular painful crises, reverting economy to the two-percentage growth trajectory.

scholarly journals Negative Effect of Current Account Surplus on Long-term Growth; Focused on the Cases of Japan, S. Korea and China

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 116-147
Author(s):  
Yongshik Choe ◽  
Seong-yop You
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Foreign Reserve ◽  
The World ◽  
International Payment ◽  
Negative Effect

It is a teaching of current economics that the surplus of current account in international payment contributes to the increase of income. But it has got a negative effect on the long-term growth in the reality, which is easily proved by some instances. First, the Japanese growth rate has been very low despite its current account maintaining a huge surplus. Second, it is another instance that South Korea has suffered from its low growth rate even if its government has enforced the policy to defend its exchange rate from declining while its current account surplus has become large since 1998. Next, the growth rate of China has decreased from the time when its foreign reserve has begun to reduce despite its huge surplus of current account. This paper clarifies the reason why their growths are stagnant despite their huge surpluses in current account. If this paper changes the policies of above countries, it would resolve their economic difficulties and settle the imbalance of the world economy. And this paper would contribute to the evolution of economics.

Stimulative monetary policy: Myths and reality

2017 ◽  
pp. 5-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin ◽  
E. Goryunov ◽  
P. Trunin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Credit Markets ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Production Capacities ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

In the paper we critically assess the stimulative monetary policy, proposed by the Stolypin Club and other experts. We discuss its inflationary consequences, the ability to accelerate economic growth along with created distortions in credit markets. We argue that the long-term macroeconomic stability cannot be sustained under managed exchange rate. We provide counterarguments to views, according to which inflation in Russia has nonmonetary roots and it is possible to increase money supply without causing inflation due to undermonetization of Russian economy and low utilization of production capacities. Negative consequences of monetary easing are illustrated with recent Belorussian experience.

scholarly journals Examining the Relationship between Economic Variables and Financial Performance of the Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 188
Author(s):  
Ali Akbar Nazari ◽  
Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Integration Test

<p>This study aims to identify long-term financial performance of the companies in Tehran Stock Exchange and some economic variables like inflation rate, liquidity growth rate, exchange rate, and oil income. In this study, data was analyzed in a quarterly form from 2005-2013 using self-regression with distributional lags. Results of co-integration test showed a long-term correlation between economic variables and growth rate of cash return index. The long-term correlation between growth rate of cash return index and oil return and exchange rate was negative while the correlation between growth rate of cash return index and inflation rate was positive.<em> </em>Also, the significance of cash growth rate coefficient was rejected at 90% significance level.</p>

scholarly journals Growth acceleration results in faster telomere shortening later in life

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1956) ◽  
pp. 20211118
Author(s):  
Pablo Salmón ◽  
Caroline Millet ◽  
Colin Selman ◽  
Pat Monaghan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Blood Cells ◽  
Later Life ◽  
Experimental Period ◽  
Growth Trajectory ◽  
Telomere Shortening ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Accelerated Growth ◽  
Telomere Dynamics

There is a wealth of evidence for a lifespan penalty when environmental conditions influence an individual's growth trajectory, such that growth rate is accelerated to attain a target size within a limited time period. Given this empirically demonstrated relationship between accelerated growth and lifespan, and the links between lifespan and telomere dynamics, increased telomere loss could underpin this growth–lifespan trade. We experimentally modified the growth trajectory of nestling zebra finches ( Taeniopygia guttata ), inducing a group of nestlings to accelerate their growth between 7 and 15 days of age, the main phase of body growth. We then sequentially measured their telomere length in red blood cells at various time points from 7 days to full adulthood (120 days). Accelerated growth between 7 and 15 days was not associated with a detectable increase in telomere shortening during this period compared with controls. However, only in the treatment group induced to show growth acceleration was the rate of growth during the experimental period positively related to the amount of telomere shortening between 15 and 120 days. Our findings provide evidence of a long-term influence of growth rate on later-life telomere shortening, but only when individuals have accelerated growth in response to environmental circumstances.

The Slowdown of the Russian Economy

2013 ◽  
pp. 4-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Zamaraev ◽  
A. Kiyutsevskaya ◽  
A. Nazarova ◽  
E. Sukhanov
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Trends

This article considers factors and conditions slowing growth of the Russian economy. Its recovery growth after the crisis of 2008—2009 is over. The limit of rapid growth through the export of raw materials has now been reached. Reducing flows of financial resources from the rest of the world influence the Russian overall macro framework. Reduction of infrastructure investment projects and public investments led to a slowdown in the growth of domestic demand. New, lower long-term trends of economic growth are being formed in the Russian economy. This picture is radically different from the "fat" 2000s.

On the Aggregate Impact of Exchange Rate Variability on EU Trade

2001 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalid Sekkat
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Variability ◽  
Relative Wages ◽  
Demand Variability ◽  
The Uk

Abstract The paper assesses the aggregate impact of exchange rate variability on EU trade. A small econometric model is constructed and estimated for five countries: France, Italy, Germany, the UK and Belgium. The results show that there exists a long-term relationship between trade variables and relative costs, demand, exchange rates and expected exchange rates. No such relation exists with respect to volatility. It is also found that while the most important determinants of trade variables are relative wages and demand, variability is also responsible for a decrease in the growth rate of these variables.

Armenia's long-term growth will need sustained reform

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Economic And Financial Crisis

Subject The prospects for structural reform. Significance Armenia's sharp economic contraction in 2009, due to the global economic and financial crisis, should have encouraged the authorities to introduce the long-needed structural reforms that are essential for securing long-term sustainable growth. Armenia's prospects for moving towards a more dynamic economic market system that would help improve the population's well-being are limited. Impacts The main short-term downside risk is a sharper-than-expected contraction of the Russian economy in 2016 and weaker recovery in 2017. Russian weakness would harm Armenia's trade, investment and remittance flows. Failure to allow the private sector to develop more swiftly is discouraging Armenians abroad from returning. The lifting of sanctions on Iran will offer the opportunity to diversify investment and expand trade links. Failure to introduce reforms could lead to further protests against the elite, following the 'Electric Yerevan' demonstrations of mid-2015.

The Politics of Exchange Rate—Based Stabilization Versus Structural Reforms in Latin America

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (9) ◽  
pp. 1193-1216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cameron G. Thies ◽  
Moises Arce
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Comprehensive Test

In the 1990s, the choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime began to capture the attention of policy makers across Latin America. Several countries pegged their currency to the U.S. dollar or even officially substituted the dollar for their national currency. Although economists and political scientists have made piecemeal contributions to the understanding of such policy choices, the literature currently lacks an integrated theoretical framework and a comprehensive test of alternative hypotheses. This study seeks to rectify these gaps in the literature by arguing that policy makers see the implementation of fixed exchange rate regimes as a politically expedient commitment device that allows them to avoid adopting more difficult long-term adjustment policies designed to attain macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth. This hypothesis is tested with alternative hypotheses put forward in the burgeoning literature on exchange rate regime choice. Theoretical expectations are supported by the results of several logit models, which confirm some previous findings in the literature.

Competitive Capacity and Modernization of the Russian Economy

2004 ◽  
pp. 4-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Yasin ◽  
A. Yakovlev
Keyword(s):  
Present State ◽  
Transition Economy ◽  
Adaptive Model ◽  
Russian Economy

Having analyzed the present state of the Russian economy the authors come to the conclusion that the only reasonable goal of its modernization is achieving high competitive capacity of production. External and internal competitive capacity is analysed in detail basing on broad statistics as well as competitive capacity of institutions and their changes, the adaptive model of transition economy. According to the authors implementation of competitive capacity policy as a national idea should take into account long-term perspective.

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