Is technological change a devourer of jobs?

2017 ◽  
pp. 111-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Kapeliushnikov
Keyword(s):  
Technological Change ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Employment Growth ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
Technological Unemployment ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Task Sets ◽  
The Impact

The paper provides a critical analysis of the idea of technological unemployment. The overview of the existing literature on the employment effects of technological change shows that on the micro-level there exists strong and positive relationship between innovations and employment growth in firms; on the sectoral level this correlation becomes ambiguous; on the macro-level the impact of new technologies seems to be positive or neutral. This implies that fears of explosive growth of technological unemployment in the foreseeable future are exaggerated. Our analysis further suggests that new technologies affect mostly the structure of employment rather than its level. Additionally we argue that automation and digitalisation would change mostly task sets within particular occupations rather than distribution of workers by occupations.

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY PROTECTION, ENTREPRENEURSHIP, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

1996 ◽  
Vol 04 (03) ◽  
pp. 267-285
Author(s):  
FRANCIS W. RUSHING ◽  
MARK A. THOMPSON
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Intellectual Property ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Technological Change ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Intellectual Property Protection ◽  
Economic Literature ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Impact

This paper brings together the importance of intellectual property protection (IPP) and entrepreneurship in economic growth. The paper surveys the economic literature on what factors are important to growth. The focus is on recent models of endogenous growth which reflect on the role of investment, technological change and education. Secondly, publications, which measure the impact of IPP on some of the growth elements identified are reviewed. The third section deals with IPP and the entrepreneur as an important agent and facilitator of growth. It discusses the nature of IPP as an incentive in not only stimulating the development of new technologies and processes but also the dissemination of existing technologies. Using the surveys as background, short case studies for India and Brazil are presented on IPP as a stimulus and application of research and development. The last section summarizes the previous sections and draws some conclusions with respect to policy.

scholarly journals The phantom of technological unemployment

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rostislav Kapeliushnikov
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Technological Changes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Technological Unemployment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Strong Positive Relationship ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

Nowadays there are many gloomy prophecies provided by both technologists and economists about the detrimental effects of the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution on aggregate employment and its composition. These prophecies imply that in the near future we will face Robocalypse — a massive replacement of people by machines alongside an explosion in joblessness. This paper provides theoretical, empirical and historical evidence that the phenomenon of technological unemployment is a phantom. The most general results can be summarized as follows: in the long run, reduction in labor demand under the impact of new technologies is merely a theoretical possibility that has never before been realized in practice; at the level of individual firms, there is a strong positive relationship between innovations and employment growth; at the sectoral level, technological changes cause a multidirectional employment response, since different industries are at different stages of the life cycle; at the macro level, technological progress acts as a positive or neutral, but not a negative factor; a surge in technological unemployment, even in the short-term, seems a remote prospect since in coming decades the pace of technological change is unlikely to be fast enough by historical standards; the impact of new technologies on labor supply may be a more serious problem than their impact on labor demand; technological changes seem to have a much greater effect on the composition of employment than on its level.

scholarly journals Distributional consequences of technological change: Worker-level evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 205316801882214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kurer ◽  
Aina Gallego
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Technological Change ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Employment Trajectories ◽  
Routine Work ◽  
The Impact

This paper explores the employment trajectories of workers exposed to technological change. Based on individual-level panel data from the UK, we first confirm that the share of middle-skilled routine workers has declined, while non-routine jobs in both high- and low-skilled occupations have increased, consistent with country-level patterns of job polarization. Next, we zoom in on the actual transition patterns of threatened routine workers. Despite the aggregate decline in routine work, most affected workers manage to remain in the labor market during the time they are in the study: about 64% “survive” in routine work, 24% switch to other (better or worse paying) jobs, almost 10% exit routine work via retirement and only a small minority end up unemployed. Based on this finding, the final part of our analysis studies the economic implications of remaining in a digitalizing occupational environment. We rely on an original approach that specifically captures the impact of information and communication technology at the industry level on labor market outcomes and find evidence for a digital Matthew effect: while outcomes are, on average, positive, it is first and foremost non-routine workers in cognitively demanding jobs that benefit from the penetration of new technologies in the workplace. In the conclusions, we discuss if labor market polarization is a likely source of intensified political conflict.

scholarly journals Technological unemployment – A Failure in Theorizing

2005 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Earl F. Beach
Keyword(s):  
Technological Change ◽  
Industrial Relations ◽  
Production Method ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Partial Equilibrium ◽  
Capital Equipment ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
Technological Unemployment ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Partial Equilibrium Analysis

The subject of technological unemployment is used to illustrate how accepted theory leads to wrong answers because the technique used is that of partial equilibrium analysis. On this basis one rules out the investment needed to make the change in production method. In a dynamic context, in which such change continues, the employment effects of this investment should be allowed, and they can be seen to be substantial relative to the loss in employment from the installation of the new capital equipment. The result is that technological change conceived in this broad context is expansionary, and the implications for industrial relations and other policies is very important.

The Psychological Impact of New Technologies: Anticipation of Stress

1989 ◽  
Vol 33 (13) ◽  
pp. 811-815
Author(s):  
Charles M. Slem ◽  
Daniel J. Levi ◽  
Andrew Young
Keyword(s):  
Technological Change ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Job Insecurity ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Psychological Impact ◽  
Role Overload ◽  
Reduction In Force ◽  
Organizational Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Slem, Levi and Young (1986) developed a model of the psychological impact of technological change on the workforce. The purpose of current research was to investigate the relationship between stress and technological change. The “Impact of Technological Change Survey” was administered to workers in five large electronics manufacturing corporations. Almost one-third of the workforce believed that technological change would make the individual's job more stressful. Over 20% were worried about the future of their jobs. Anticipated role conflict, role ambiguity, and quantitative role overload produced the strongest and most consistent relationships with the global measure of stress. Qualitative role overload and beliefs about reduction in force were more closely allied to job insecurity stress. Anticipated stress is reduced somewhat when technological change is seen as providing personal and organizational benefits or when the organization is perceived as effectively dealing with the transition to the new technology.

scholarly journals Understanding Technological Unemployment: A Review of Causes, Consequences, and Solutions

Societies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Yuri Lima ◽  
Carlos Eduardo Barbosa ◽  
Herbert Salazar dos Santos ◽  
Jano Moreira de Souza
Keyword(s):  
Social Impact ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Technological Unemployment ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Subject ◽  
New Research ◽  
The Impact

Many studies have focused on estimating the impact of automation on work around the world with results ranging widely. Despite the disagreement about the level of impact that automation will have, experts agree that new technologies tend to be applied to every economic sector, thus impacting work regardless of substituting or complementing it. The purpose of this study is to move on from the discussion about the size of the impact of automation to understanding the main social impacts that automation will cause and what actions should be taken to deal with them. For this purpose, we reviewed literature about technological unemployment found in Scopus and Web of Science published since 2000, presenting an academic view of the actions necessary to deal with the social impact of automation. Our results summarize causes, consequences, and solutions for the technological unemployment found in the literature. We also found that the literature is mainly concentrated on the areas of economy, sociology, and philosophy, with the authors situated in developed economies such as the USA, Europe, and New Zealand. Finally, we present the research agenda proposed by the reviewed papers that could motivate new research on the subject.

scholarly journals Twenty-nine years of the BIR Annual Survey part 1: Technological change

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 106-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Tredinnick
Keyword(s):  
Technological Change ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Professional Experience ◽  
Annual Survey ◽  
The World ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Information Work ◽  
Rich Data ◽  
The Impact

This article is the first part of a review of the Business Information Review Annual Survey, which has been published annually since 1991. The article explores technological change as it has been revealed by the surveys. It uses a combination of content and thematic analysis to develop six key themes, which are discussed by reference to the original surveys: the telling case of CD-ROMs; the Internet and the World Wide Web; changing information formats; the impact of digital technologies on information work; intranets and knowledge management (KM); and newer technologies. The article aims to summarise and consolidate longitudinal trends revealed by the survey, act as a guide to the rich data contained within the surveys themselves and provide a testament to the wealth of professional experience captured in the BIR Annual Surveys. Its findings relate to the nature of technological change and the incorporation of new technologies by the information and KM profession.

scholarly journals A Survey on the potential of monitoring of longwall complex parameters based on industry 4.0

2020 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 01065
Author(s):  
Patryk Szolc ◽  
Marta Stempniak ◽  
Remigiusz Grudziecki ◽  
Dorota Pałka
Keyword(s):  
Technological Change ◽  
Industry 4.0 ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Young Generation ◽  
Employee Education ◽  
Operation And Maintenance ◽  
University Of Technology ◽  
Mining Machinery ◽  
Polish Economy ◽  
The Impact

A brief description of the program of Industry 4.0 and the impact it has on the economy and its development provided by the students show how the young generation sees the concept–a reality they themselves will soon be engage in as workers. The paper discusses the principles of Industry 4.0 and what they mean to Polish economy. The authors developed a survey and conducted it among students of the Wrocław University of Technology, Faculty of Geoengineering, Mining and Geology, and engineers from the Polska Grupa Górnicza S.A. KWK ROW Ruch Chwałowice. The survey was of an informative nature. It covered a group of underground workers holding different positions including miners, electricians or mechanical fitters. The respondents are employed to carry on various tasks related to operation and maintenance of mining machinery and devices. The questionnaire consists of 15 questions. They were arranged in such a way that the participants could respond in an efficient and quick way. Additionally, the questionnaire contained information about the seniority of a given employee, education and age. The results of the survey demonstrate how employees understand technological change. They can be helpful in implementing the development and implementation of new technologies.

scholarly journals Technological Risk and Policy Preferences

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402110242
Author(s):  
Aina Gallego ◽  
Alexander Kuo ◽  
Dulce Manzano ◽  
José Fernández-Albertos
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Technological Change ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Recent Attention ◽  
Technological Displacement

Despite recent attention to the economic and political consequences of automation and technological change for workers, we lack data about concerns and policy preferences about this structural change. We present hypotheses about the relationships among automation risk, subjective concerns about technology, and policy preferences. We distinguish between preferences for compensatory policies versus “protectionist” policies to prevent such technological change. Using original survey data from Spain that captures multiple measures of automation risk, we find that most workers believe that the impact of new technologies in the workplace is positive, but there is a concerned minority. Technological concern varies with objective vulnerability, as workers at higher risk of technological displacement are more likely to negatively view technology. Both correlational and experimental analyses indicate little evidence that workers at risk or technologically concerned are more likely to demand compensation. Instead, workers concerned about technological displacement prefer policies to slow down technological change.

Technology

2021 ◽  
pp. 217-256
Author(s):  
Jagjeet Lally
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Technological Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
New Imperialism ◽  
The Impact ◽  
And Diffusion

By the latter decades of the nineteenth century, caravan trade first showed signs of growth before entering a period of decline and reorientation. This chapter evaluates the causes of the relative and absolute decline of trade, focusing on productive and transport technologies (including railways, steamships and telegraph lines), the rapid development and diffusion of which were the hallmarks of the era of the New Imperialism. The impact of technological change was ambivalent, with the modern nowhere supplanting more archaic motilities; instead, the existing pattern of trade was undermined where new technologies interacted with wider economic changes, particularly the institution of protectionism in Russian Central Asia. This is examined by returning to three of the most important commodities flowing through the networks of caravan trade: indigo, silk and textiles.

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