Coronavirus pandemic and trends of economic policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 5-30
Author(s):  
V. A. Mau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Long Term Trends

The paper deals with social and economic consequences of COVID-19 in the context of long-term trends of economic development. The current crisis is compared with economic and war cataclysms of 20th—21st centuries. Special attention is paid to types of anti-crisis policies as well as to relations between anti-crisis (short-term) and modernization (medium-term) challenges. The paper discusses the influence of pandemic on budget and monetary policies, trends of globalization, and new approaches to government regulation of economic development.

15. Democracies, Democratization, and Authoritarian Regimes

2020 ◽  
pp. 336-362
Author(s):  
Peter Ferdinand
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
National Crisis ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Types Of Democracy ◽  
The Face ◽  
Long Term Trends

This chapter focuses on democracies, democratization, and authoritarian regimes. It first considers the two main approaches to analysing the global rise of democracy over the last thirty years: first, long-term trends of modernization, and more specifically economic development, that create preconditions for democracy and opportunities for democratic entrepreneurs; and second, the sequences of more short-term events and actions of key actors at moments of national crisis that have precipitated a democratic transition — also known as ‘transitology’. The chapter proceeds by discussing the different types of democracy and the strategies used to measure democracy. It also reviews the more recent literature on authoritarian systems and why they persist. Finally, it examines the challenges that confront democracy in the face of authoritarian revival.

scholarly journals Expansionary or restrictive policies in the Eurozone? Dominating trends in the first two decades

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 405-430
Author(s):  
Joanna Stawska ◽  
Paulo Jorge Reis Mourao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Switching Regimes ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

Abstract Our aim is to identify periods of restrictive versus expansionary economic policy in the euro area in the last two decades. We firstly conducted the study for identifying the dominant trend in fiscal policies and then in monetary policies. We studied several fiscal outputs, focusing on the cyclical adjusted primary balance. We also analysed the European long-term and short-term interest rates. The study was conducted for several windows, namely for 3-, 4- and 5-year periods. Additional procedures were conducted for robustness checks, namely the study of structural breaks in the analysed time series as well as a study of them recurring to Markov-Switching Regimes models. For most of the analysed periods and subperiods of the series, we concluded for the presence of expansionary policies either in the fiscal or in monetary European domains. Finally, the results and the analysis of dependencies in the euro area economy favour the evidence that economic authorities in the euro area have sought to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy to stabilise the economy.

13. Democracies, Democratization, and Authoritarian Regimes

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Ferdinand
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
National Crisis ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Types Of Democracy ◽  
The Face ◽  
Long Term Trends

This chapter focuses on democracies, democratization, and authoritarian regimes. It first considers the two main approaches to analysing the global rise of democracy over the last thirty years: first, long-term trends of modernization, and more specifically economic development, that create preconditions for democracy and opportunities for democratic entrepreneurs; and second, the sequences of more short-term events and actions of key actors at moments of national crisis that have precipitated a democratic transition — also known as ‘transitology’. The chapter proceeds by discussing the different types of democracy and the strategies used to measure democracy. It also reviews the more recent literature on authoritarian systems and why they persist. Finally, it examines the challenges that confront democracy in the face of authoritarian revival.

scholarly journals Belgium

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (92) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Single Event ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
The Past ◽  
Trade Offs

This Selected Issues paper analyzes Belgium’s fiscal stance using a structural stochastic model. This note uses a theoretical model that explicitly accounts for the trade-offs between the short-term cost of fiscal tightening and the long-term gains associated with higher fiscal buffers. This paper shows that once the current crisis is over, rebuilding fiscal buffers is essential to helping Belgium confront the next shock from a stronger fiscal position. Overall, this illustrates a major motivation for a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy. When a government reduces debt, it increases its capacity to react to shocks later. This entails a short-term cost that is, in the case of Belgium, worth the effort as this capacity to smooth future shocks increases future welfare. In addition, a large capacity to react with fiscal policy reduces the risk of long-lasting effects of a large crisis. Historical data show that in the past, the Belgium government’s reaction to the cycle was limited to a single event. By contrast, if Belgium could firmly anchor public debt on a downward path, future governments would be able to offset downturns while keeping debt sustainability concerns under control.

scholarly journals Research on the Influence of Regional Economic Development on Shenzhen's Economic Vitality

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
Sihao Fu ◽  
Xinzhu Chen ◽  
Zekun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Regional Economic Development ◽  
Short Term ◽  
New Economic Policy ◽  
Chinese Characteristics ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Economic Vitality ◽  
Permanent Residents

<p>We studied the population increment and enterprise increment under the policy of “building socialism with Chinese characteristics pilot demonstration zone” in Shenzhen and calculated the number of permanent residents and enterprises in Shenzhen in terms of short term (next year) and long term (next five to ten years). Combined with the new population and enterprises brought by the new economic policy and the model in question 1, the data of Shenzhen GDP in the short-term and long-term situations are calculated. So we concluded that the long-term impact on Shenzhen will be greater than the short-term impact in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Long-Term Data Traffic Forecasting for Network Dimensioning in LTE with Short Time Series

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1151
Author(s):  
Carolina Gijón ◽  
Matías Toril ◽  
Salvador Luna-Ramírez ◽  
María Luisa Marí-Altozano ◽  
José María Ruiz-Avilés
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Data Traffic ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Traffic Forecasting ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Radio Planning

Network dimensioning is a critical task in current mobile networks, as any failure in this process leads to degraded user experience or unnecessary upgrades of network resources. For this purpose, radio planning tools often predict monthly busy-hour data traffic to detect capacity bottlenecks in advance. Supervised Learning (SL) arises as a promising solution to improve predictions obtained with legacy approaches. Previous works have shown that deep learning outperforms classical time series analysis when predicting data traffic in cellular networks in the short term (seconds/minutes) and medium term (hours/days) from long historical data series. However, long-term forecasting (several months horizon) performed in radio planning tools relies on short and noisy time series, thus requiring a separate analysis. In this work, we present the first study comparing SL and time series analysis approaches to predict monthly busy-hour data traffic on a cell basis in a live LTE network. To this end, an extensive dataset is collected, comprising data traffic per cell for a whole country during 30 months. The considered methods include Random Forest, different Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average and Additive Holt–Winters. Results show that SL models outperform time series approaches, while reducing data storage capacity requirements. More importantly, unlike in short-term and medium-term traffic forecasting, non-deep SL approaches are competitive with deep learning while being more computationally efficient.

scholarly journals A systemic socio-ecological recovery from Covid-19

2021 ◽  
pp. 146801812110191
Author(s):  
William Hynes
Keyword(s):  
Financial Economic ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Economic Approach ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Policy Alternatives ◽  
Economic Thinking ◽  
Emergency Measures ◽  
Ecological Recovery

New economic thinking and acting through a systemic approach could outline policy alternatives to tackle the global-scale systemic challenges of financial, economic, social and environmental emergencies, and help steer our recovery out of the current crisis. A systemic recovery requires an economic approach that balances several factors - markets and states, efficiency and resilience, growth and sustainability, national and global stability, short-term emergency measures and long-term structural change. To achieve this, we need to think beyond our policy silos, comprehend our interconnections, and build resilience into our systems.

scholarly journals Reform in the international food aid regime: the role of consensual knowledge

1992 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 225-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond F. Hopkins
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Epistemic Community ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Local Production ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
Food Imports

The principles and norms adopted by the regime governing food aid in the 1950s have changed substantially during the subsequent three decades. Explaining the changes necessarily includes analyzing the efforts of an international epistemic community consisting of economic development specialists, agricultural economists, and administrators of food aid. According to the initial regime principles, food aid should be provided from donors' own surplus stocks, should supplement the usual commercial food imports in recipient countries, should be given under short-term commitments sensitive to the political and economic goals of donors, and should directly feed hungry people. As a result of following these principles, the epistemic community and other critics argued, food aid often had the adverse effects of reducing local production of food in recipient countries and exacerbating rather than alleviating hunger. The epistemic community (1) developed and proposed ideas for more efficiently supplying food aid and avoiding “disincentive” effects and (2) pushed for reforms to make food aid serve as the basis for the recipients' economic development and to target it at addressing long-term food security problems. The ideas of the international epistemic community have increasingly received support from international organizations and the governments of donor and recipient nations. Most recently, they have led to revisions of the U.S. food aid program passed by Congress in October 1990 and signed into law two months later. As the analysis of food aid reform demonstrates, changes in the international regime have been incremental, rather than radical. Moreover, the locus for the change has shifted from an American-centered one in the 1950s to a more international one in recent decades.

Sampling estuarine copepods at different scales and resolutions: a study in Rio de la Plata

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (5) ◽  
pp. 1059-1064 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sourav Paul ◽  
Danilo Calliari
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Effort ◽  
Rio De La Plata ◽  
Population Densities ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Río De La Plata ◽  
La Plata ◽  
Resource Limitations ◽  
Paracalanus Parvus

AbstractIn the Rio de la Plata salinity, temperature, chlorophyll a (chl a), and densities (ind. m−3) of the copepods Acartia tonsa and Paracalanus parvus were measured from January to November in 2003 by following a nested weekly and monthly design. Such sampling yielded two separate datasets: (i) Yearly Dataset (YD) which consists of data of one sampling effort per month for 11 consecutive months, and (ii) Seasonal Weekly Datasets (SWD) which consists of data of one sampling effort per week of any four consecutive weeks within each season. YD was assumed as a medium-term low-resolution (MTLR) dataset, and SWD as a short-term high-resolution (STHR) dataset. The hypothesis was, the SWD would always capture (shorter scales generally captures more noise in data) more detail variability of copepod populations (quantified through the regression relationships between temporal changes of salinity, temperature, chl a and copepod densities) than the YD. Analysis of both YD and SWD found that A. tonsa density was neither affected by seasonal cycles, nor temporal variability of salinity, temperature and chl a. Thus, compared to STHR sampling, MTLR sampling did not yield any further information of the variability of population densities of the perennial copepod A. tonsa. Analysis of SWD found that during summer and autumn the population densities of P. parvus had a significant positive relationship to salinity but their density was limited by higher chl a concentration; analysis of YD could not yield such detailed ecological information. That hints the effectiveness of STHR sampling over MTLR sampling in capturing details of the variability of population densities of a seasonal copepod species. Considering the institutional resource limitations (e.g. lack of long-term funding, manpower and infrastructure) and the present hypothesis under consideration, the authors suggest that a STHR sampling may provide useful complementary information to interpret results of longer-term natural changes occurring in estuaries.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment Led Growth Hypothesis and Economic Development in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 376-393
Author(s):  
Ubong Edem Effiong ◽  
Nora Francis Inyang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This study was an inquiry into the nexus of the foreign-direct investment (FDI) led growth hypothesis, and how it translates into the development of the Nigerian economy as of 1970 – 2018. The study utilized secondary data from the ‘World Development Indicators’ which were analysed using the Bounds test for cointegration and the ‘autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to divulge both the short-term cum the long-term influence of foreign direct investment net inflow on ‘economic development’ of Nigeria. The Bounds test was conducted after the unit root test revealed that the variables were stationary at mixed order of level and first difference. The outcome of the ARDL Bounds test supported confirmation of long-term association among the variables. The ARDL short-run error correction showed that 14.62% of the instability in the model was corrected yearly. In the short-term, it was discovered that FDI wielded a deleterious and substantial weight on ‘economic development of Nigeria. Meanwhile, the long-term estimates indicated that FDI influenced economic development positively, though not in a significant manner. The Granger causality test supported the fact that FDI causes ‘economic development’ in Nigeria. Given this potential of FDI exerting a positive effect on ‘economic development’, the paper recommended that bottlenecks inherent in FDI influxes in the country should be removed so as to reap the fullest benefits of such inflows in Nigeria.

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