15. Democracies, Democratization, and Authoritarian Regimes

2020 ◽  
pp. 336-362
Author(s):  
Peter Ferdinand
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
National Crisis ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Types Of Democracy ◽  
The Face ◽  
Long Term Trends

This chapter focuses on democracies, democratization, and authoritarian regimes. It first considers the two main approaches to analysing the global rise of democracy over the last thirty years: first, long-term trends of modernization, and more specifically economic development, that create preconditions for democracy and opportunities for democratic entrepreneurs; and second, the sequences of more short-term events and actions of key actors at moments of national crisis that have precipitated a democratic transition — also known as ‘transitology’. The chapter proceeds by discussing the different types of democracy and the strategies used to measure democracy. It also reviews the more recent literature on authoritarian systems and why they persist. Finally, it examines the challenges that confront democracy in the face of authoritarian revival.

13. Democracies, Democratization, and Authoritarian Regimes

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Ferdinand
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
National Crisis ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Types Of Democracy ◽  
The Face ◽  
Long Term Trends

This chapter focuses on democracies, democratization, and authoritarian regimes. It first considers the two main approaches to analysing the global rise of democracy over the last thirty years: first, long-term trends of modernization, and more specifically economic development, that create preconditions for democracy and opportunities for democratic entrepreneurs; and second, the sequences of more short-term events and actions of key actors at moments of national crisis that have precipitated a democratic transition — also known as ‘transitology’. The chapter proceeds by discussing the different types of democracy and the strategies used to measure democracy. It also reviews the more recent literature on authoritarian systems and why they persist. Finally, it examines the challenges that confront democracy in the face of authoritarian revival.

Approaches to Skills in the Asian Developmental States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny Sung ◽  
Arwen Raddon
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Developmental State ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Developmental States ◽  
Asian Tiger ◽  
The Face ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
And Training ◽  
Over Time

The developmental state model was proposed in the early 1990s as a better means of understanding the mechanisms underlying the rapid growth of the Asian Tiger economies, when compared to classic economic models. The national skills systems of South Korea and Singapore are examined in order to consider how the Asian developmental state approach has worked in practice. It is shown that, whilst the state identifies and firmly guides the direction of economic development, the market plays a fundamental role in the concrete delivery of long-term economic objectives. Within this approach, education and training act as a vehicle to achieve broader economic and social development goals. Examples are used to consider how these systems changed throughout the industrialisation process. We reflect on some of the challenges faced over time, which have put the long-term viability of the developmental state approach in question. Most notable is the gradual erosion of the state’s ability to lead capital and labour in order to achieve long- rather than short-term goals, particularly in the face of globalisation.

Coronavirus pandemic and trends of economic policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 5-30
Author(s):  
V. A. Mau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Long Term Trends

The paper deals with social and economic consequences of COVID-19 in the context of long-term trends of economic development. The current crisis is compared with economic and war cataclysms of 20th—21st centuries. Special attention is paid to types of anti-crisis policies as well as to relations between anti-crisis (short-term) and modernization (medium-term) challenges. The paper discusses the influence of pandemic on budget and monetary policies, trends of globalization, and new approaches to government regulation of economic development.

Graduate Medical Education in Otolaryngology: Making Dollars and Sense of Reform

2021 ◽  
pp. 019459982110042
Author(s):  
Jenny X. Chen ◽  
Shivani A. Shah ◽  
Vinay K. Rathi ◽  
Mark A. Varvares ◽  
Stacey T. Gray
Keyword(s):  
Medical Education ◽  
Graduate Medical Education ◽  
Resident Training ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Graduate Medical ◽  
Departmental Leadership ◽  
Key Stakeholders ◽  
The Face ◽  
Funding Cuts

Graduate medical education (GME) is funded by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services through both direct and indirect payments. In recent years, stakeholders have raised concerns about the growth of spending on GME and distribution of payment among hospitals. Key stakeholders have proposed reforms to reduce GME funding such as adjustments to statutory payment formulas and absolute caps on annual payments per resident. Otolaryngology departmental leadership should understand the potential effects of proposed reforms, which could have significant implications for the short-term financial performance and the long-term specialty workforce. Although some hospitals and departments may elect to reduce resident salaries or eliminate positions in the face of GME funding cuts, this approach overlooks the substantial Medicare revenue contributed by resident care and high cost of alternative labor sources. Commitment to resident training is necessary to align both the margin and mission of otolaryngology departments and their sponsoring hospitals.

scholarly journals Reform in the international food aid regime: the role of consensual knowledge

1992 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 225-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond F. Hopkins
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Epistemic Community ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Local Production ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
Food Imports

The principles and norms adopted by the regime governing food aid in the 1950s have changed substantially during the subsequent three decades. Explaining the changes necessarily includes analyzing the efforts of an international epistemic community consisting of economic development specialists, agricultural economists, and administrators of food aid. According to the initial regime principles, food aid should be provided from donors' own surplus stocks, should supplement the usual commercial food imports in recipient countries, should be given under short-term commitments sensitive to the political and economic goals of donors, and should directly feed hungry people. As a result of following these principles, the epistemic community and other critics argued, food aid often had the adverse effects of reducing local production of food in recipient countries and exacerbating rather than alleviating hunger. The epistemic community (1) developed and proposed ideas for more efficiently supplying food aid and avoiding “disincentive” effects and (2) pushed for reforms to make food aid serve as the basis for the recipients' economic development and to target it at addressing long-term food security problems. The ideas of the international epistemic community have increasingly received support from international organizations and the governments of donor and recipient nations. Most recently, they have led to revisions of the U.S. food aid program passed by Congress in October 1990 and signed into law two months later. As the analysis of food aid reform demonstrates, changes in the international regime have been incremental, rather than radical. Moreover, the locus for the change has shifted from an American-centered one in the 1950s to a more international one in recent decades.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment Led Growth Hypothesis and Economic Development in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 376-393
Author(s):  
Ubong Edem Effiong ◽  
Nora Francis Inyang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This study was an inquiry into the nexus of the foreign-direct investment (FDI) led growth hypothesis, and how it translates into the development of the Nigerian economy as of 1970 – 2018. The study utilized secondary data from the ‘World Development Indicators’ which were analysed using the Bounds test for cointegration and the ‘autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to divulge both the short-term cum the long-term influence of foreign direct investment net inflow on ‘economic development’ of Nigeria. The Bounds test was conducted after the unit root test revealed that the variables were stationary at mixed order of level and first difference. The outcome of the ARDL Bounds test supported confirmation of long-term association among the variables. The ARDL short-run error correction showed that 14.62% of the instability in the model was corrected yearly. In the short-term, it was discovered that FDI wielded a deleterious and substantial weight on ‘economic development of Nigeria. Meanwhile, the long-term estimates indicated that FDI influenced economic development positively, though not in a significant manner. The Granger causality test supported the fact that FDI causes ‘economic development’ in Nigeria. Given this potential of FDI exerting a positive effect on ‘economic development’, the paper recommended that bottlenecks inherent in FDI influxes in the country should be removed so as to reap the fullest benefits of such inflows in Nigeria.

scholarly journals COASTAL CHANGES AT BETHANY BEACH, DELAWARE

1984 ◽  
Vol 1 (19) ◽  
pp. 112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer E. Dick ◽  
Robert A. Dalrymple
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Erosion ◽  
Coastal Processes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Barrier Beach ◽  
Commercial Activities ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Coastal Changes ◽  
Summer Homes

The coastal processes affecting Bethany Beach, Delaware were studied and the short-term and long-term trends in coastal changes were determined in order to develop recommendations for protecting Bethany against coastal erosion (Dick and Dalrymple, 1983). Bethany Beach is located on the Delaware Atlantic coastline which is a wide sandy baymouth barrier beach distinguished by highlands at Rehoboth Beach and Bethany Beach. The shoreline is straight, with only minor bulges and indentations (see Figure 1). Bethany Beach is a residential and resort community. Privatelyowned properties front the publicly-owned beach. Construction of new motels and summer homes is anticipated along with the continued growth of commercial activities to accommodate the increased number of visitors. Bethany is protected by a series of nine groins built between 1934 and 1945. Many of these groins have deteriorated, and are flanked at the landward end. Winter storms severely erode the beach and damage shorefront property. The beach is generally narrow (approximately 45 m wide), especially along the southern portion, and is backed by low dunes (about 15-45 m above NGVD). A timber bulkhead extends along most of the backshore.

scholarly journals Changes in the biomass of scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees in Europe since 1940

2021 ◽  
pp. 6-22
Author(s):  
А.В. Лебедев ◽  
В.В. Кузьмичев
Keyword(s):  
Wood Density ◽  
Scots Pine ◽  
Wood Properties ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Pine Tree ◽  
Mixed Effect Models ◽  
The Face ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Linear Mixed Effect Models

Сосна обыкновенная является одной из основных лесообразующих пород Европы, а ее древесина находит широкое применение в лесопромышленном комплексе. При оценке углерододепонирующих функций считается, что конверсионные коэффициенты являются константными по времени. Последние исследования показывают, что происходящие климатические изменения оказывают существенное влияние на прирост древесины и ее свойства. Цель данного исследования – выявление долговременных тенденций в изменении биомассы фракций деревьев сосны обыкновенной в Европе, происходящих с 1940 г. Для проверки гипотезы о влиянии календарного года на биомассу фракций деревьев проводился регрессионный анализ с применением линейных моделей смешанных эффектов. Проведенный статистический анализ позволил выявить достоверное влияние (при p < 0,05) календарного года только на биомассу стволов в коре. Наиболее сильно изменения проявляются для деревьев в молодняках и средневозрастных насаждениях, где происходит формирование наибольшего радиального прироста. Для крупномерных стволов, согласно результатам моделирования, снижение биомассы стволов в коре не прослеживается. В ближайшие десятилетия в результате продолжающихся климатических изменений процесс снижения биомассы и плотности древесины крупномерных стволов должен усилиться. Выявленные изменения биомассы сопровождаются снижением плотности древесины, что происходит в результате увеличения в структуре годичного прироста более рыхлой и менее плотной ранней древесины. Таким образом, в условиях ускоряющихся темпов роста древесных растений объемы стволов и запасы древесины не должны напрямую пересчитываться в депонированный углерод с учетом исторических значений конверсионных коэффициентов. Это также следует учитывать при мониторинге, моделировании и использовании углерода и биомассы в лесах в условиях глобальных изменений. Scots pine is one of the main forest-forming species in Europe, and its wood is widely used in the timber industry. When evaluating carbon-depositing functions, the conversion rations are assumed to be constant over time. Recent studies show that the ongoing climatic changes have a significant impact on the growth of trees and wood properties. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify long-term trends in the change in the biomass of Scots pine tree fractions in Europe since 1940. To test the hypothesis about the influence of the calendar year on the biomass of tree fractions, regression analysis was performed using linear mixed-effect models. The performed statistically analysis made it possible to reveal a significant effect (p < 0.05) of the calendar year only on the biomass of the trunks in the bark. The changes are most pronounced for trees in young and middle-aged stands, where the formation of the greatest radial growth occurs. For large-sized trunks, according to the simulation results, the biomass of the stems in the bark is not traced. In the coming decades, as a result of ongoing climate change, the decline in biomass and wood density of largesized stems should intensify. The revealed changes in biomass are accompanied by a decrease in wood density, which occurs as a result of an increase in the structure of the annual growth of looser and less dense early wood. Thus, in the context of accelerating growth rates of woody plants, the volume of trunks and wood stock should not be directly converted into deposited carbon, considering the historical values of conversion rations. This should also be considered when monitoring, modeling and using carbon and biomass in forests in the face of global change.

scholarly journals Pembangunan Ekonomi, Industrialisasi, dan Degradasi Lingkungan Hidup di Indonesia Tahun 1967-2013: Enviromental Kuznet Curve Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andi Kurniawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Error Correction Mechanism ◽  
The Impact

Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi dampak pembangunan ekonomi dan proses industrialisasi terhadap Degradasi lingkungan di Indonesia baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Untuk melihat pengaruh pembangunan ekonomi dan industrialisasi terhadap penurunan kualitas lingkungan di Indonesia, penelitian ini menggunakan model Enviromental Kuznet Curve (EKC) dan dengan model Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). Hasil penelitian menjelaskan bahwa dalam jangka panjang peningkatan pendapatan masyarakat dan industrilasasi berpengaruh positif  secara linier terhadap peningkatan emisi C02 dan pada tingkat pendapatan tertentu terjadi proses perbaikan lingkungan yang ditandai dengan penurunan emisi CO2. Namun dalam jangka pendek hanya industrialisasi yeng membrikan pengaruh pada peningkatan emisi CO2. Diharapkan adanya konsesus bersama antara pemerintah dan pelaku usaha (industri) dalam mengurangi dampak pencemaran serta adanya peningkatan kesadaran masyakat dalam membantu mengurangi kerusakan lingkungan hidup.   Abstract This study aims to identify the impact of economic development and industrialization to  the environmental degradation in Indonesia, both in the long term and short term. To see the effect of economic development and industrialization to the environmental degradation in Indonesia, this research was  used Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model and the model of  Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results of the study explain that in the long term, improvement of people's income and industrialization have positive effect linearly with the increase in C02 emissions and at a certain income level there is a process improvement environment characterized by a decrease in CO2 emissions. But in the short term only industrialization which influence on the increase of CO2 emissions Expected that the consensus between the government and businesses (industri) in reducing the impact of pollution and the increased awareness of society in helping to reduce environmental damage.    

Integration of geological and seismological data in earthquakes occurrence models for Italy: towards a unified model for different forecast perspectives

2019 ◽  
Vol 219 (3) ◽  
pp. 2148-2164
Author(s):  
A M Lombardi
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Background Rate ◽  
Etas Model ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Earthquake Predictability ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Different Types

SUMMARY The operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is a procedure aimed at informing communities on how seismic hazard changes with time. This can help them live with seismicity and mitigate risk of destructive earthquakes. A successful short-term prediction scheme is not yet produced, but the search for it should not be abandoned. This requires more research on seismogenetic processes and, specifically, inclusion of any information about earthquakes in models, to improve forecast of future events, at any spatio-temporal-magnitude scale. The short- and long-term forecast perspectives of earthquake occurrence followed, up to now, separate paths, involving different data and peculiar models. But actually they are not so different and have common features, being parts of the same physical process. Research on earthquake predictability can help to search for a common path in different forecast perspectives. This study aims to improve the modelling of long-term features of seismicity inside the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, largely used for short-term forecast and OEF procedures. Specifically, a more comprehensive estimation of background seismicity rate inside the ETAS model is attempted, by merging different types of data (seismological instrumental, historical, geological), such that information on faults and on long-term seismicity integrates instrumental data, on which the ETAS models are generally set up. The main finding is that long-term historical seismicity and geological fault data improve the pseudo-prospective forecasts of independent seismicity. The study is divided in three parts. The first consists in models formulation and parameter estimation on recent seismicity of Italy. Specifically, two versions of ETAS model are compared: a ‘standard’, previously published, formulation, only based on instrumental seismicity, and a new version, integrating different types of data for background seismicity estimation. Secondly, a pseudo-prospective test is performed on independent seismicity, both to test the reliability of formulated models and to compare them, in order to identify the best version. Finally, a prospective forecast is made, to point out differences and similarities in predicting future seismicity between two models. This study must be considered in the context of its limitations; anyway, it proves, beyond argument, the usefulness of a more sophisticated estimation of background rate, inside short-term modelling of earthquakes.

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