scholarly journals Analisis Permintaan Uang di Indonesia: Pendekatan Autoegressive Distributed lag (Ardl)

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 152-160
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ridha ◽  
Nurjannah ◽  
Ratna Mutia
Keyword(s):  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

Penelitian ini mengkaji permintaan uang di Indonesia dengan menggunakan pendekatan autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui fungsi permintaan uang di Indonesia dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya selama periode 1990:1-2019:4 dengan menggunakan data kuartal. Ada dua persamaan estimasi untuk uang sempit (M1) dan uang luas (M2). Hasil pengujian bounds testing menunjukkan bahwa ada hubungan jangka panjang yang stabil antara permintaan uang dan determinannya. Hasil persamaan pertama (M1) dalam jangka panjang variabel GDP dan inflasi bertanda positif sedangkan suku bunga dan nilai tukar bertanda negatif, dan semua variabel independen berpengaruh signifikan, yang ditunjukkan dengan nilai probabilitas kurang dari 0,05. Pada persamaan kedua (M2) dalam jangka panjang, variabel GDP dan nilai tukar menunjukkan arah positif sedangkan variabel inflasi memiliki arah negatif. Semua variabel independen berpengaruh signifikan terhadap permintaan uang di Indonesia kecuali variabel suku bunga. Nilai koefesien determinasi R2 untuk persamaan pertama sebesar 0,857 sedangkan persamaan kedua sebesar 0,807. Hasil pengujian CUSUM dan CUSUMQ untuk kedua model analisis stabil dalam jangka panjang.

scholarly journals FDI location and exchange rates. is there really a relationship between the two?

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 642-651
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Coming Out ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Exact Nature ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The exchange rate led foreign direct investment (FDI), FDI led exchange rates and feedback effect hypotheses summarise the literature around the nature of the relationship between FDI and exchange rates. So many authors on this subject over a long period have been found to generally side with of the above-mentioned hypothesis or another without a consensus. Despite this lack of consensus with regard to the exact nature of the causal relation between these two variables, what is coming out clearly from the literature is that there indeed exist a relationship between FDI and exchange rates. The lack of consensus has prompted this current study that used the ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag)-bounds testing approach. The study revealed the existence of causality from (1) the rand value to FDI in the long run and (2) FDI to the rand value only in the short run in South Africa. The author recommends that policies which strengthen the value of the rand should be put in place in order to attract FDI in the long run. The flow of FDI into South Africa will in turn not only stabilises the value of the rand.

scholarly journals The Causal Connection between CO2 Emissions and Agricultural Productivity in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Rehman ◽  
Ilhan Ozturk ◽  
Deyuan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Food Grains ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Total Food ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Seed Distribution

The rapid agricultural development and mechanization of agronomic diligence has led to a significant growth in energy consumption and CO2 emission. Agriculture has a dominant contribution to boosting the economy of any country. In this paper, we demonstrate carbon dioxide emissions’ association with cropped area, energy use, fertilizer offtake, gross domestic product per capita, improved seed distribution, total food grains and water availability in Pakistan for the period of 1987-2017. We employed Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests to examine the variables’ stationarity. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing technique to cointegration was applied to demonstrate the causality linkage among study variables from the evidence of long-run and short-run analyses. The long-run evidence reveals that cropped area, energy usage, fertilizer offtake, gross domestic product per capita and water availability have a positive and significant association with carbon dioxide emissions, while the analysis results of improved seed distribution and total food grains have a negative association with carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. Overall, the long-run effects are stronger than the short-run dynamics, in terms of the impact of explanatory variables on carbon dioxide emission, thus making the findings heterogeneous. Possible initiatives should be taken by the government of Pakistan to improve the agriculture sector and also introduce new policies to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide.

scholarly journals Violent Crime and Unemployment in Nigeria: An ARDL Bound Test Cointegration.

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 21-24
Author(s):  
Garba Mohammed Guza ◽  
Ahmed Balarabe Musa ◽  
Sunday Elijah
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Armed Robbery ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Unemployment And Crime ◽  
Bound Test

This study attempts to examine whether there is a long-run relationship existing between crime rates and unemployment in Nigeria for the period 2004 to 2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was used to determine the cointegration between unemployment and crime rates. The results show that unemployment and crime (murder, armed robbery, robbery, assaults, sexual offense, and cultism) are cointegrated. The empirical findings show that the unemployment rate and violent crime, such as; armed robbery, robbery-murder, assaults, sex violence, and cultism are all cointegrated. The long-run coefficients results indicated that the unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on murder, sex violence, assaults, and cultism

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

Electricity Consumption–Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from ARDL Bound Testing Approach in the Tunisian Context

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215092092543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zouheir Mighri ◽  
Hanen Ragoubi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Causal Nexus

This article investigates the causal nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth in Tunisia for the period 1971–2013 by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration and Granger causality tests. The empirical findings indicate the existence of a long-term relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Besides, they support the conservation hypothesis in the long run, while they confirm the growth hypothesis in the short run.

scholarly journals Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian K. Masinde ◽  
Steven Buigut ◽  
Joseph K. Mung'atu
Keyword(s):  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

<p>Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.</p>

Exports and Inequality: Evidence from the Highly Concentrated Textile and Garment Sector of Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
pp. 097317412110248
Author(s):  
Md. Iqbal Bhuyan ◽  
Keun-Yeob Oh
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Export Sector ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

In this study, we investigate the effects of textile and garment (T&G) exports on income inequality in Bangladesh. Focusing on T&G exports alone, which contribute more than 90% of the country’s total exports, we hypothesize that the export sector of a country being concentrated on a single industry widens income inequality. Based on time series data over the period 1991–2015, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration indicates that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. It seems that exports from the T&G sector have a statistically significant effect on income inequality in the long run, such that the high concentration of T&G exports contributes to widening income inequality in Bangladesh. This result implies that policies oriented toward export diversification are necessary so that people working in other sectors can also engage in income generating activities from exports. Our results also demonstrate that income inequality rises in the initial stages of economic growth. Then, after reaching a threshold level of growth, income inequality falls. This result confirms the validity of the Kuznets hypothesis in the case of Bangladesh.

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