scholarly journals Asymmetric effect of government debt on GDP growth: evidence from Namibia

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 543-558
Author(s):  
Teboho Jeremiah Mosikari ◽  
◽  
Joel Hinaunye Eita ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Debt ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Asymmetric Effect

scholarly journals Will Rising Debt in China Lead to a Hard Landing?

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Wang Man Cang ◽  
Zhou Ming Matt
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate

Moody has recently downgraded China's sovereign debt, which's Moody's first downgrade for the country since 1989. The objective of this study is to get an insight into the local and regional government debt in China, analyze the key factors, and evaluate the economic risks. Based on the published data since 1996, the granger causality test is performed to find out the relationship between local government debt level, the fiscal income, GDP growth rate and CPI. Some major findings are: i) local government debt is accumulated through more spending on economic development and less funding obtained from the revenue sharing scheme between governments. ii) fiscal income and GDP growth rate have positive impact on the increase of local government debt. iii) CPI increase shows negative impact on the local government debt. It’s projected that in the coming years, slower growth and less income with a stable CPI could slow down debt accumulation. The Chinese government should monitor the risk factors closely and use risk mitigation tools to avoid a hard landing.

scholarly journals U.S. Debt: The Next Financial Crisis?

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Paul Stuart
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Tax Reduction ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
Manageable Level ◽  
The U.S

<p>As the U.S. economy has mainly recovered from the 2008 Financial Crisis, with unemployment below 5%, inflation below 2%, and the stock market near all-time highs, there is growing concern about the huge amount of U.S. government debt, which today stands at over $20 Trillion dollars and 106% of Debt/GDP. Could this be the next thing to derail the U.S. economy, and in so doing, negatively affecting nearly every other country in the world?  This paper reviews the size and scope of the U.S. National Debt in it’s historical context. There are three reasons to be alarmed about this, especially now. First, the annual budget deficit, which had been shrinking in the later years of the Obama administration, is once again on the rise. Second, the Republican tax reduction bill is estimated to add another trillion dollars to the overall level of government debt in the next 10 years, even with higher GDP growth rates factored in. Third, the Trump administration, while slashing other areas of government spending (State Department, Environmental Protection Agency, and more) is once again seeking major increases in military spending. This scenario is strikingly similar to the early 1980’s, where deficits soared as a result. The paper also offers some solutions as to what can be done to bring it down to a more manageable level (or at least reduce it’s rate of growth). Like many things in economics, the “best” solution is to find ways to return to levels of historical GDP growth rates (3% and above).</p>

scholarly journals Egypt Public Debt Dynamic and its’ Trajectory Projection

2020 ◽  
pp. 15-29
Author(s):  
Mohammed I. Abdu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Debt Level ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
General Government

Egypt’s general government debt recorded a precarious level at the end of the fiscal year 2015/16 by 103.2% of GDP. Although the economic reform program has succeeded in putting the debt level on a downturn path, the debt level is still high compared to the other middle income economies countries group and is subject to significant risks. The paper aims to identify the main drivers of the change in Egypt’s general government debt as a percentage of the GDP,starting from 1999 to 2019 by using a multiple regression model. Also, the paper reviews the Egyptian public debt trajectory under different scenarios for the upcoming five years (2020 – 2024). The findings of the applied model correspond to the economic theory, as both the previous year debt and exchange rate lead to an increase in the debt level as a percentage of GDP. On the other hand, real GDP growth, interest rate, and the primary balance have a reduction effect. Furthermore, the model is used to forecast the debt level over the medium term under different scenarios. The results show that the debt level as a percentage of GDP is expected to spike in 2020 and then return to the downturn trajectory gradually. Also, the compound shock consisting of the shrink of real GDP growth and exchange rate depreciation will have the most severe effect.

scholarly journals An alert on the recent fall of the fiscal reaction in Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-262
Author(s):  
EDUARDO LIMA CAMPOS ◽  
RUBENS PENHA CYSNE
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Fiscal Reaction Function ◽  
Fiscal Adjustments ◽  
Primary Surplus

ABSTRACT Recent evaluations of how the Brazilian government’s primary surplus reacts to the evolution of the debt to GDP ratio convey two important (and worrisome) messages: first, the reaction function has been almost steadily decreasing since 2012. Second, it has turned from positive to negative figures as of October 2017. With effective real interest rates (over the net government debt) higher than prospects of GDP growth, negative figures for the fiscal reaction function mean a non-sustainable debt trajectory. Therefore, significant fiscal adjustments are required in the short run.

scholarly journals GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY: THE LITHUANIAN CASE

Ekonomika ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 91 (3) ◽  
pp. 56-71
Author(s):  
Arvydas Kregždė
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Scenario Approach

The paper deals with some aspects of sustainability of the government debt of Lithuania for a long, medium and short time horizon. The purpose of the study is to investigate the sustainability of the debt with respect to the nominal GDP growth, the interest rate on the debt, and the primary budget deficit. The differential equations calculus technique is used for the analysis of the debt. A scenario approach is used to simulate the sensitivity of the debt to economic shocks. An inequality for a non-increasing debt over a medium term is applied for the possibility to restore the level of the debt to a pre-crisis level. The sensitivity of the debt to a short movement of interest rate, the GDP growth rate and the primary budget deficit is investigated. A rule of debt change in a short run by one percentage point is formulated.

China: "A Bee Has a Stripy Back, but No One Can Call It a Tiger"

2003 ◽  
pp. 61-75
Author(s):  
V. Guelbras
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
International Demand ◽  
Real Size ◽  
Rates Of Growth

The article is devoted to verification of the Chinese GDP data. The author compares the rates of GDP growth with the rates of growth of energy consumption, transport turnover of goods, and numbers of projected and constructed objects in 1980-2000. The former was significantly lower during that period. He also analyses the level of using productive capacities and the quality of production. About 25-30% of industrial productive capacities are not used because there is neither national nor international demand for their low quality goods. The main conclusion of the article is that the Chinese GDP real size is about 20-30% less than official releases.

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