MODELING THE NONLINEAR FISCAL REACTION FUNCTION IN MALAYSIA

The fiscal reaction function (FRF) provides valuable insights into a country’s fiscal sustainability and output stability. However, there is no consensus yet on how to model it. Thus, this study investigates the best functional form for the FRF by adopting a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach that accounts for a potential structural break in the data across periods. We examine the case of Malaysia and address the country’s data by using a break-point of the unit root test. The test results indicate the presence of a structural break in the country’s FRF. Moreover, the primary balance of Malaysia has an asymmetrical reaction to the country’s public debt and the output gap. This result suggests that a nonlinear behavior of FRF with a structural break is an accurate approach for the fiscal authority in Malaysia (for example, the Ministry of Finance) in designing prudent fiscal policy. This study finds that an asymmetric fiscal reaction in Malaysia neither guarantees fiscal sustainability nor supports output stability, thus suggesting the need for an independent fiscal council to promote prudent fiscal policy.

Fiscal reaction functions for the advanced economies revisited

We revisit the relationship between the primary balances/GDP and debt/GDP ratios (fiscal reaction function, FRF), in the advanced economies, showing that using adequate tests and estimators leads to question the validity of the current consensus. Using data for 1961–2019, we find that long-run FRFs exist only in a small number of advanced economies (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Norway, Portugal and Sweden), with polynomial effects with fiscal fatigue only in Germany. These results warn against the widespread practice of estimating homogeneous polynomial panel FRFs. Limiting the sample to 1961–2007, thus excluding the 2008 crisis and its aftermath, FRFs hold also in Canada, Ireland, Italy (polynomial), Spain and USA, though not in Germany, and the coefficients are generally larger. Particularly, after 2008 European Union countries appear somehow to have been more likely to implement FRFs.

Revisiting the Sustainability of India’s Fiscal Deficit

Growing fiscal deficit and public debt has been a cause of concern for the government, economists and the policymakers of India since long. Various studies have tried to test the sustainability issue of India’s fiscal policies applying various methodologies time to time. However, the results obtained are ambiguous. Such ambiguity might emerge because of the various methodologies adopted for the respective studies. In view of this, the current study attempts to revisit the sustainability issue of India’s fiscal deficit using up-to-date time series methodologies on the annual data sets ranging from the time period 1981 to 2019. Apart from this, the study also tries to verify the results using a model based on fiscal reaction function (FRF) developed by Henning Bohn. The study found the fiscal deficit of India to be sustainable. JEL Classification: H61, H62, H63, H68

Determinants of fiscal effort in sub-Saharan African countries: Does conflict matter?

This study investigates the determinants of fiscal effort in sub-Saharan African (SSA) within the framework of fiscal reaction functions. Whereas previous studies focusing on SSA have mainly considered the economic non-debt determinants this study accounts for the role of conflict given its persistence in many SSA countries. It employs a variety of panel econometric methods that are applicable in tackling the problem of endogeneity. Specifically the study employs the instrumental variables fixed effects, the two-step generalised method of moments (GMM) and the traditional two-stage least squares techniques. Mainly the evidence shows that although SSA governments have made fiscal adjustments in response to the escalating levels of debt, conflict impacts negatively on this response in SSA. Furthermore, the results affirm the presence of fiscal fatigue in SSA’s fiscal reaction function. Recommendations based on these findings are discussed.

Debt sustainability and the fiscal reaction function: evidence from MIST countries

The use of public debt is not new in financing developmental objectives. A significant challenge arose when it became obvious that the indebted countries could not fulfill its existing financial obligation to the rest of the world where debt is sourced. For a panel of 4 heterogeneous countries from 1990 to 2017, we study governments’ reactions to debt accumulation and the corrective measures taken when its borrowings result in a rise in debt–GDP ratio. The study evidence is based on the fixed effect and the feasible generalized least squares estimators. We find evidence that primary balance improves by about 0.005–0.013 for every 1 percentage point increase in central government debt after controlling for other relevant factors. The results further suggest that the accrued interest payments on debt reflect the effective debt management policies across the countries, whereas the activities on the current account balance impose a possible threat to the primary balance. The study calls for policies that increase fiscal bases through the reduction in fiscal expenditure and the reinforcement of tax base revenue across the MIST countries.

Estimating the Fiscal Reaction Function for Namibia

This paper estimates the fiscal reaction function for Namibia with the aim of establishing how the Government of Namibia responds to changes in debt levels. The VECM and the ARDL models were adopted to explore the reactions between the two variables. Both the VECM and ARDL confirmed the long-run relationship between the variables and showed that government increases its primary balance (i.e. reduce its primary deficit) by 0.07 percent and 0.31 percent, respectively, for every 1 percentage increase in debt levels. On one end, the results from VECM indicated that fiscal policy in Namibia is pro-cyclical, reflected in a positive estimated effect of the output gap on the primary balance. On the other end, the ARDL model indicated an insignificant relationship between the output gap and the primary balance. The debt targeting analysis performed provides evidence that it is not enough to only reduce the primary deficit for fiscal sustainability. Instead, it is important to grow the economy and improve the ability of debt repayment so that debt accumulation declines. Thus, the paper recommends that Namibia needs not only a positive, but also a strong economic growth if it is to make significant impacts on the debt level and guarantee both debt and fiscal sustainability.

Can Pakistan Raise More External Debt? A Fiscal Reaction Approach

This study has assessed the role of existing policies in determining the state of debt sustainability for the Pakistan economy (1980- June 2019) through fiscal reaction function. This study adds to the literature in two aspects. First, a policy index has been constructed to formulate a debt-policy interactive term that implies whether or not existing macroeconomic policies contribute in making external debt sustainable in Pakistan. Second, this study has gauged the potential sustainable external debt through in-sample forecast method. The estimated results obtained by the ARDL method show that Pakistan has just entered into a phase of unsustainable debt burden in the long run as fiscal reaction analysis exhibits the weak significant negative relationship between primary balance and external debt to GDP ratio. Moreover, existing macroeconomic policies also show a negative association with the primary balance that implies the ineffectiveness of policies in making external debt sustainable for Pakistan. This study suggests that an increase in foreign inflows through remittances or export earnings may improve the debt sustainability state in Pakistan.

Estimating a Fiscal Reaction Function for Nigeria

The study examines the determinants of fiscal balance and the impact of the selected macroeconomic variables on the primary balance of government. It aims to estimate the fiscal reaction function for Nigeria and determine whether the implementation of fiscal policy is sustainable in the long-run. A Fiscal Reaction model was developed and ARDL technique was used to establish the relationships and interactions among the variables. The study investigated whether the fiscal measures pursued by the government from 2000:Q1 to 2018:Q4 was adequate in addressing the accumulation of huge debt. The analysis of the stylized facts reveals that the government had continued to run budget deficits for almost the entire period, except for a few period. The public debt to GDP, which is a major determinant of the primary balance, is negative and significant implying that a fiscal rule that encourages a strong reduction in debt-to-GDP levels would result in substantial pressure for Nigeria to run large primary surpluses in the future. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests show the recursive residual plots of the fiscal reaction function are within the 5 per cent critical lines, hence, providing evidence of stable fiscal reaction function for Nigeria. The study thus, recommends that, apart from the urgent need for the fiscal authorities to adopt urgent reforms to discourage huge debt accumulation, improve revenue generation capacity and more fundamentally, expenditure switching to improve the quality of expenditure, the transition from primary deficits to primary surpluses should follow a gradual process.

DP 0250 - Fiscal Fatigue and Public Debt Limit in Brazil: are we on sustainable path?

In this paper I use Ghosh et al. (2013) approach to assess Brazil’s fiscal sustainability, fiscal fatigue, and public debt limit. Using monthly data for the last 21 years, I estimate Brazil’s fiscal reaction function and an eventual fiscal fatigue effect, which is a lack of government’s will (or capability) to implement higher primary surpluses as a reaction to higher levels of debt. I show that fiscal fatigue occurs at relatively mild levels of debt in Brazil. I also define Brazil’s debt limit, which is the precise level of debt/GDP ratio above which the debt dynamics becomes explosive, public debt becomes unpayable, and the government invariably defaults. I show that the debt limit in Brazil is much lower than the limits that have been estimated for advanced economies.