Climate forecasting as a support tool for farm management.

1999 ◽  
pp. 167-169
Author(s):  
Georgina Daw
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Farm Management ◽  
Climate Variations ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Weather Events

Climate variability has a significant impact on climate sensitive industries in New Zealand, including farming. Droughts, floods, and other extreme or unseasonable weather events all have an impact on primary production, and ultimately, profitability. NIWA has recently established the National Climate Centre to improve the flow of climate information to climate sensitive industries, including the farmer. The Centre's goal is to help New Zealanders manage for climate variations, by providing accessible, easy to understand, climate information. This paper will provide details about some of the basic NIWA National Climate Centre climate information that is available, and how to access it. Keywords: climate, El Niño, forecasting, La Niña, risk management, weather

scholarly journals Climate reality - actual and expected

2003 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 13-18
Author(s):  
J. Salinger
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Dryland Farming

New Zealand average surface temperatures have increased by 0.7 °C since 1871. In the last quarter of the 20th century, more prevalent west to southwest flows occurred, accompanying a higher incidence of El Niño events. This resulted in annual rainfall decreasing in eastern areas of the North Island. As well as the global warming signal, interannual to decadal climate variability is a strong feature of east coast dryland climates. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, (ENSO), through El Niño/ and La Niña episodes, drives climate variability seasonally. The recently described Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) shifts climate every one to three decades and changes precipitation averages in these areas. These features of the climate system leave east coast dryland farming open to considerable climate variability. Records of potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) around Napier and Ashburton show that significant PSMD developed in these regions by 1 December, in 50 to 85% of years with severe deficits in 20 to 55% of years. These deficits build as summer progresses. El Niño events intensify, whilst La Niña episodes normally ameliorate these conditions on seasonal time scales. The IPO climate shifts significantly change the dryness of the soil of these areas, with the transition from negative to positive phases increasing PSMD by 35 to 50 mm. Climate change over the next few decades will be driven by the underlying trend of global warming. For New Zealand, this will be a warming of about 0.2 °C per decade. The latest scenarios and climate model results indicate that westerly circulation is likely to strengthen over New Zealand, with a drying of east coast climate in the order of 10% by 2080. These will cause an increase in PSMD in the order of 20 to 30%. ENSO and IPO variability will be a continuing feature of New Zealand climate in coming decades. East coast dryland farms experience substantial climate variability. As climate warming continues in the decades of the 21st century, these areas will become increasingly stressed as potential evapotranspiration (PET) rates increase, particularly when the IPO next changes phase and during El Niño events. Climate forecasting is an exciting new technology that will give farmers early warning and increase preparedness for dry seasons ahead, allowing them to make key strategic decisions. A mixture of new and traditional technologies will also assist, such as intercropping and use of seasonal climate forecasting. Despite this, dryland farming systems are likely to become increasingly limited owing to low rainfall and high potential evapotranspiration rates.

PRESENT AND FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR FORESTRY IN THE CENTRAL PUMICE REGION

1971 ◽  
pp. 14-17
Author(s):  
J. Ure
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Local Conditions

The region contains half the area of exotic forest in New Zealand and the major industries dependent thereon. Both are expanding rapidly to meet promising export markets. Local conditions are particularly favourable for this form of primary production and continued expansion is expected.

scholarly journals Overview of microbial risks in water distribution networks and their health consequences: quantification, modelling, trends, and future implications

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 149-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Viñas ◽  
Annika Malm ◽  
Thomas J.R. Pettersson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Distribution Network ◽  
Water Quality Monitoring ◽  
Distribution Networks ◽  
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Microbial Risks

The water distribution network (WDN) is usually the final physical barrier preventing contamination of the drinking water before it reaches consumers. Because the WDN is at the end of the supply chain, and often with limited online water quality monitoring, the probability of an incident to be detected and remediated in time is low. Microbial risks that can affect the distribution network are: intrusion, cross-connections and backflows, inadequate management of reservoirs, improper main pipe repair and (or) maintenance work, and biofilms. Epidemiological investigations have proven that these risks have been sources of waterborne outbreaks. Increasingly since the 1990s, studies have also indicated that the contribution of these risks to the endemic level of disease is not negligible. To address the increasing health risks associated to WDNs, researchers have developed tools for risk quantification and risk management. This review aims to present the recent advancements in the field involving epidemiological investigations, use of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for modelling, risk mitigation, and decision-support. Increasing the awareness of the progress achieved, but also of the limitations and challenges faced, will aid in accelerating the implementation of QMRA tools for WDN risk management and as a decision-support tool.

scholarly journals Current and planned research for managing the fruit fly threat to New Zealand

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 ◽  
pp. 279
Author(s):  
David A.J. Teulon ◽  
John M. Kean ◽  
Karen F. Armstrong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Fruit Fly ◽  
Fruit Flies ◽  
Bactrocera Tryoni ◽  
The World ◽  
Increasing Risk ◽  
Management Diagnostics ◽  
The Impact

Fruit flies (Family Tephritidae), in particular the Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni; QFF), areone of the biggest biosecurity risks for New Zealand horticulture. New Zealand has one of the bestscience-based biosecurity systems in the world, based on years of experience and sound research. Theintroduction of fruit flies to New Zealand is now well managed in commercial fruit imports, but the riskis rising from growing trade and travel and, in the case of QFF, climatic adaptation and spread to moresouthern localities. Smarter solutions are continually needed to manage this increasing risk, and to dealwith such pests when they arrive. We present a brief summary of current and anticipated research aimedat reducing the likelihood of entry into New Zealand and/or minimising the impact for the fruit flyspecies of greatest threat to New Zealand. Research spans risk assessment, pathway risk management,diagnostics, surveillance and eradication.

Climate variability controlled the development of the pre-Viking society during the Late Antiquity in Southeastern Norway

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manon Bajard ◽  
Eirik Ballo ◽  
Helge I. Høeg ◽  
Jostein Bakke ◽  
Eivind Støren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Late Antiquity ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Viking Age ◽  
Climate Variations ◽  
Livestock Farming ◽  
Lake Productivity ◽  
Crop Farming ◽  
Zero Hunger

<p>Understanding how agricultural societies were impacted and adapted to past climate variations is critical to face to contemporary climate change and guaranty the food security (#SDG2 Zero Hunger). However, linking climate and change in the behaviour of a population are difficult to evidence. Here, we studied the climate variations of the period between 200 and 1300 CE and its impact on the pre-Viking and Viking societies in Southeastern Norway, including the adaptation and resilience of the agricultural management. This period includes, between 300 and 800 CE, one of the coldest period of the last 2000 years. We used a retrospective approach combining a multi-proxy analysis of lake sediments, including geochemical and palynological analyses, to reconstruct past changes in temperature and agricultural practices during the period 200-1300 CE. We associated variations in Ca/Ti ratio as a result of change in lake productivity with the temperature. The periods 200-300 and 800-1300 CE were warmer than the period between 300 and 800 CE, which is known as the “Dark Ages Cold Period” in the Northern Hemisphere. During this colder period, phases dominated by grazing activities (280-420 CE, 480-580 CE, 700-780 CE) alternated with phases dominated by the cultivation of cereals and hemp (before 280 CE, 420-480 CE, 580-700 CE, and after 800 CE). The alternation of these phases is synchronous of temperature changes. Cold periods are associated to livestock farming, and warmer periods to crop farming. This result suggests that when temperature no longer allowed crop farming, the food production specialized in animal breeding. The result of a Principal Component Analysis show a succession of phases of crisis, adaptation and resilience of the socio-environmental system. The Viking Age (800-1000 CE) started with an increase in temperature and corresponds to the warmest period between 200 and 1300 CE, allowing a larger development of the agriculture practices and society. Our results prove that the pre-Viking society adapted their agricultural practices to the climate variability of the Late Antiquity and that the Vikings expanded with climate warming.</p>

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