scholarly journals American Voters Do Punish Overt Undemocratic Behavior at the Polls: Natural Experimental Evidence from the 2021 Insurrection of the U.S. Capitol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam van Noort
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Random Digit Dialing ◽  
Random Digit ◽  
Survey Experiments ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The U.S

Existing research suggests that overt undemocratic behavior by elected officials is insufficiently punished by American voters to electorally discourage democratic backsliding. Evidence for this proposition comes primarily from hypothetical survey experiments with relatively weak treatments. I test this hypothesis using a natural experiment with a powerful treatment: Donald Trump's incitement of the insurrection of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The insurrection was unexpected to the general public, did not coincide with other events that could plausibly affect public opinion, and occurred while Gallup was conducting a nationally representative survey using random digit dialing. Comparing vote choice intention among respondents that were interviewed just before, and just after, the insurrection occurred suggests that the insurrection caused a 10.8% decline in support for the Republican Party, and an 8.4% increase in support for the Democratic Party. Politicians interested in winning elections have strong incentives to avoid insurrection-like events from occurring.

scholarly journals Do American Voters Really Not Punish Overt Undemocratic Behavior at the Polls? Natural Experimental Evidence from the 2021 Insurrection of the U.S. Capitol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam van Noort
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Random Digit Dialing ◽  
Random Digit ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Party Support ◽  
The U.S

Existing research suggests that too few American voters hold politicians electorally accountable for overt undemocratic behavior to reasonably deter democratic backsliding. Evidence for this proposition comes primarily from hypothetical survey experiments with relatively modest treatments. I test this hypothesis using a natural experiment with a powerful real-world treatment: Donald Trump's incitement of the insurrection of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The insurrection was unexpected to the general public, did not coincide with other events that could plausibly affect public opinion, and occurred while Gallup was conducting a nationally representative survey using random digit dialing. Comparing Republican Party support among respondents that were interviewed just before, and just after, the insurrection occurred suggests that the insurrection caused a 10.8% decline in support for the Republican Party. Voters predominantly moved to the Democratic Party, rather than Independent. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggests that this electoral penalty is sufficient to decide presidential elections.

scholarly journals Do American Voters Really Not Punish Overt Undemocratic Behavior at the Polls? Natural Experimental Evidence from the 2021 Insurrection of the U.S. Capitol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam van Noort
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Random Digit Dialing ◽  
Random Digit ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Party Support ◽  
The U.S

Existing research suggests that too few American voters hold politicians electorally accountable for overt undemocratic behavior to reasonably deter democratic backsliding. Evidence for this proposition comes primarily from hypothetical survey experiments with relatively modest treatments. I test this hypothesis using a natural experiment with a powerful real-world treatment: Donald Trump's incitement of the insurrection of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The insurrection was unexpected to the general public, did not coincide with other events that could plausibly affect public opinion, and occurred while Gallup was conducting a nationally representative survey using random digit dialing. Comparing Republican Party support among respondents that were interviewed just before, and just after, the insurrection occurred suggests that the insurrection caused a 10.8% decline in support for the Republican Party. Voters predominantly moved to the Democratic Party, rather than Independent. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggests that this electoral penalty is sufficient to decide presidential elections.

Before Reagan: The Development of Abortion’s Partisan Divide

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1031-1047
Author(s):  
Neil A. O’Brian
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political Mobilization ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
The Political ◽  
Mass Public ◽  
Pro Life ◽  
Pro Choice

What explains the alignment of antiabortion positions within the Republican party? I explore this development among voters, activists, and elites before 1980. By 1970, antiabortion attitudes among ordinary voters correlated with conservative views on a range of noneconomic issues including civil rights, Vietnam, feminism and, by 1972, with Republican presidential vote choice. These attitudes predated the parties taking divergent abortion positions. I argue that because racial conservatives and military hawks entered the Republican coalition before abortion became politically activated, issue overlap among ordinary voters incentivized Republicans to oppose abortion rights once the issue gained salience. Likewise, because proabortion voters generally supported civil rights, once the GOP adopted a Southern strategy, this predisposed pro-choice groups to align with the Democratic party. A core argument is that preexisting public opinion enabled activist leaders to embed the anti (pro) abortion movement in a web of conservative (liberal) causes. A key finding is that the white evangelical laity’s support for conservative abortion policies preceded the political mobilization of evangelical leaders into the pro-life movement. I contend the pro-life movement’s alignment with conservatism and the Republican party was less contingent on elite bargaining, and more rooted in the mass public, than existing scholarship suggests.

How Immigration Shapes the Vote

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marisa Abrajano ◽  
Zoltan L. Hajnal
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
White Americans ◽  
Immigration Attitudes

This chapter examines whether the effects of immigration extend to the electoral arena. On average, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party present Americans with two different alternatives on immigration. Most of those calling for more punitive measures come from candidates on the Republican side. By contrast, most of the individuals offering a more compassionate perspective toward immigration emerge out of the Democratic camp. There are obvious partisan choices for voters with real hopes or deep fears on immigration. The chapter asks whether concerns about immigration are leading to greater support for Republican candidates across a range of elections from the presidency to gubernatorial contests. It shows that there is a strong, robust relationship between immigration attitudes and white Americans' vote choice. In other words, immigration exerts a broad influence on electoral politics in the United States.

The Transformation of the Republican and Democratic Party Coalitions in the U.S.

2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 433-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Miller ◽  
Norman Schofield
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
The Social ◽  
William Jennings Bryan ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Social Conservatives

Because the space of policies is two-dimensional, parties in the United States are coalitions of opposed interests. The Republican Party contains both socially conservative and socially liberal groups, though both tend to be pro-business. The increasing dominance of the social conservatives has angered some prominent Republicans, even causing a number of them to change party allegiance. Over time, the decreasing significance of the economic axis may cause the Republican Party to adopt policies that are analogous to those proposed by William Jennings Bryan in 1896: populist and anti-business. In parallel, the Democratic Party will increasingly appeal to pro-business, social liberals, so the party takes on the mantel of Lincoln.

Presidential Influence in the House: Presidential Prestige as a Source of Presidential Power

1976 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
George C. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The Other ◽  
Presidential Power ◽  
Presidential Popularity ◽  
The One ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Presidential Influence

Presidential prestige or popularity has often been cited as an important source of presidential influence in Congress. It has not been empirically and systematically demonstrated, however, that such a relationship exists. This study examines a variety of relationships between presidential prestige and presidential support in the U.S. House of Representatives. The relationships between overall national presidential popularity on the one hand and overall, domestic, and foreign policy presidential support in the House as a whole and among various groups of congressmen on the other are generally weak. Consistently strong relationships are found between presidential prestige among Democratic party identifiers and presidential support among Democratic congressmen. Similar relationships are found between presidential prestige among the more partisan Republican party identifiers and the presidential support by Republican congressmen. Explanations for these findings are presented, and the findings are related to broader questions of American politics.

scholarly journals The January 6 Insurrection and America's Standing Abroad: Natural Experimental Evidence from Five Unexpectedly Interrupted Public Opinion Surveys

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam van Noort
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Experimental Test ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Random Digit Dialing ◽  
Random Digit ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nationally Representative

American geopolitical power partly relies on foreign public support for its leadership. Pundits worry that this support is evaporating now that the United States—which claims to be the world’s beacon of democracy—has itself experienced democratic back- sliding. I provide the first natural experimental test of this hypothesis by exploiting that the January 6 insurrection of the US Capitol unexpectedly occurred while Gallup was conducting nationally-representative surveys in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Romania, and Vietnam. Because Gallup uses random digit dialing I can identify the effect by comparing US leadership approval among respondents that were interviewed just before, and just after, January 6, 2021. I find that the insurrection had no effect on US approval. If even a violent attempt to overturn a free and fair election does not affect US approval abroad it is unlikely that any other domestic anti-democratic event will.

scholarly journals Climate Change in the American Mind: April 2019

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Leiserowitz ◽  
Edward Maibach ◽  
Seth A. Rosenthal ◽  
John Kotcher ◽  
Parrish Bergquist ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Climate Change Communication ◽  
American Mind ◽  
University Center ◽  
Change Communication ◽  
George Mason University ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The U.S

This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (climatecommunication.yale.edu) and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication (climatechangecommunication.org). Interview dates: March 29-April 8, 2019. Interviews: 1,291 adults in the U.S. (18+).

scholarly journals Dixie Backlash? Anti-Southern Affect and Party Support Outside the South

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 179-206
Author(s):  
Jonathan Knuckey
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
The Political ◽  
The South ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Partisan Change ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Party Support ◽  
Election Studies

The literature on partisan change in the American electorate has devoted considerable attention to explaining Republican gains in the South. Less time has been devoted to examining changes outside of the South, where a Democratic majority has persisted-and indeed grown-over the past two decades. This article examines whether the realignment toward the Republican Party in the South has resulted in a move toward the Democratic Party outside the South. Specifically, it is posited that the growing influence of the South within the Republican Party has resulted in a backlash against the GOP. Using data from the American National Election Studies, this article examines affect toward southerners as a determinant of the political behavior of non-southerners. Findings indicate that even after controlling for other explanatory variables, affect toward southerners is a significant predictor of how non-southerners evaluate the political parties, as well as vote choice in the 2008 presidential election. While partisanship and ideology remain the best predictors of vote choice among non-southerners, anti-southern backlash should not be discounted for the GOP's "Northern problem" in recent elections.

scholarly journals The effects of corrective information about disease epidemics and outbreaks: Evidence from Zika and yellow fever in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. eaaw7449 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Carey ◽  
Victoria Chi ◽  
D. J. Flynn ◽  
Brendan Nyhan ◽  
Thomas Zeitzoff
Keyword(s):  
Vector Control ◽  
Yellow Fever ◽  
Preventive Behavior ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Control Policies ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Survey Experiments ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Disease Epidemics ◽  
Corrective Information

Disease epidemics and outbreaks often generate conspiracy theories and misperceptions that mislead people about the risks they face and how best to protect themselves. We investigate the effectiveness of interventions aimed at combating false and unsupported information about the Zika epidemic and subsequent yellow fever outbreak in Brazil. Results from a nationally representative survey show that conspiracy theories and other misperceptions about Zika are widely believed. Moreover, results from three preregistered survey experiments suggest that efforts to counter misperceptions about diseases during epidemics and outbreaks may not always be effective. We find that corrective information not only fails to reduce targeted Zika misperceptions but also reduces the accuracy of other beliefs about the disease. In addition, although corrective information about the better-known threat from yellow fever was more effective, none of these corrections affected support for vector control policies or intentions to engage in preventive behavior.

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