scholarly journals Do American Voters Really Not Punish Overt Undemocratic Behavior at the Polls? Natural Experimental Evidence from the 2021 Insurrection of the U.S. Capitol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam van Noort
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Random Digit Dialing ◽  
Random Digit ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Party Support ◽  
The U.S

Existing research suggests that too few American voters hold politicians electorally accountable for overt undemocratic behavior to reasonably deter democratic backsliding. Evidence for this proposition comes primarily from hypothetical survey experiments with relatively modest treatments. I test this hypothesis using a natural experiment with a powerful real-world treatment: Donald Trump's incitement of the insurrection of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The insurrection was unexpected to the general public, did not coincide with other events that could plausibly affect public opinion, and occurred while Gallup was conducting a nationally representative survey using random digit dialing. Comparing Republican Party support among respondents that were interviewed just before, and just after, the insurrection occurred suggests that the insurrection caused a 10.8% decline in support for the Republican Party. Voters predominantly moved to the Democratic Party, rather than Independent. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggests that this electoral penalty is sufficient to decide presidential elections.

scholarly journals Do American Voters Really Not Punish Overt Undemocratic Behavior at the Polls? Natural Experimental Evidence from the 2021 Insurrection of the U.S. Capitol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam van Noort
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Random Digit Dialing ◽  
Random Digit ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Party Support ◽  
The U.S

Existing research suggests that too few American voters hold politicians electorally accountable for overt undemocratic behavior to reasonably deter democratic backsliding. Evidence for this proposition comes primarily from hypothetical survey experiments with relatively modest treatments. I test this hypothesis using a natural experiment with a powerful real-world treatment: Donald Trump's incitement of the insurrection of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The insurrection was unexpected to the general public, did not coincide with other events that could plausibly affect public opinion, and occurred while Gallup was conducting a nationally representative survey using random digit dialing. Comparing Republican Party support among respondents that were interviewed just before, and just after, the insurrection occurred suggests that the insurrection caused a 10.8% decline in support for the Republican Party. Voters predominantly moved to the Democratic Party, rather than Independent. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggests that this electoral penalty is sufficient to decide presidential elections.

scholarly journals American Voters Do Punish Overt Undemocratic Behavior at the Polls: Natural Experimental Evidence from the 2021 Insurrection of the U.S. Capitol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam van Noort
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Random Digit Dialing ◽  
Random Digit ◽  
Survey Experiments ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The U.S

Existing research suggests that overt undemocratic behavior by elected officials is insufficiently punished by American voters to electorally discourage democratic backsliding. Evidence for this proposition comes primarily from hypothetical survey experiments with relatively weak treatments. I test this hypothesis using a natural experiment with a powerful treatment: Donald Trump's incitement of the insurrection of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The insurrection was unexpected to the general public, did not coincide with other events that could plausibly affect public opinion, and occurred while Gallup was conducting a nationally representative survey using random digit dialing. Comparing vote choice intention among respondents that were interviewed just before, and just after, the insurrection occurred suggests that the insurrection caused a 10.8% decline in support for the Republican Party, and an 8.4% increase in support for the Democratic Party. Politicians interested in winning elections have strong incentives to avoid insurrection-like events from occurring.

The Transformation of the Republican and Democratic Party Coalitions in the U.S.

2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 433-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Miller ◽  
Norman Schofield
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
The Social ◽  
William Jennings Bryan ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Social Conservatives

Because the space of policies is two-dimensional, parties in the United States are coalitions of opposed interests. The Republican Party contains both socially conservative and socially liberal groups, though both tend to be pro-business. The increasing dominance of the social conservatives has angered some prominent Republicans, even causing a number of them to change party allegiance. Over time, the decreasing significance of the economic axis may cause the Republican Party to adopt policies that are analogous to those proposed by William Jennings Bryan in 1896: populist and anti-business. In parallel, the Democratic Party will increasingly appeal to pro-business, social liberals, so the party takes on the mantel of Lincoln.

The Gender Gap Is a Race Gap: Women Voters in US Presidential Elections

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1135-1145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Junn ◽  
Natalie Masuoka
Keyword(s):  
Gender Gap ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
White Women ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Study ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study

Scholarship on women voters in the United States has focused on the gender gap, showing that, since the 1980s, women are more likely to vote for Democratic Party candidates than men. The persistence of the gender gap has nurtured the conclusion that women are Democrats. This article presents evidence upending that conventional wisdom. It analyzes data from the American National Election Study to demonstrate that white women are the only group of female voters who support Republican Party candidates for president. They have done so by a majority in all but 2 of the last 18 elections. The relevance of race for partisan choice among women voters is estimated with data collected in 2008, 2012, and 2016, and the significance of being white is identified after accounting for political party identification and other predictors.

Presidential Influence in the House: Presidential Prestige as a Source of Presidential Power

1976 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
George C. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The Other ◽  
Presidential Power ◽  
Presidential Popularity ◽  
The One ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Presidential Influence

Presidential prestige or popularity has often been cited as an important source of presidential influence in Congress. It has not been empirically and systematically demonstrated, however, that such a relationship exists. This study examines a variety of relationships between presidential prestige and presidential support in the U.S. House of Representatives. The relationships between overall national presidential popularity on the one hand and overall, domestic, and foreign policy presidential support in the House as a whole and among various groups of congressmen on the other are generally weak. Consistently strong relationships are found between presidential prestige among Democratic party identifiers and presidential support among Democratic congressmen. Similar relationships are found between presidential prestige among the more partisan Republican party identifiers and the presidential support by Republican congressmen. Explanations for these findings are presented, and the findings are related to broader questions of American politics.

scholarly journals The January 6 Insurrection and America's Standing Abroad: Natural Experimental Evidence from Five Unexpectedly Interrupted Public Opinion Surveys

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam van Noort
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Experimental Test ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Random Digit Dialing ◽  
Random Digit ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nationally Representative

American geopolitical power partly relies on foreign public support for its leadership. Pundits worry that this support is evaporating now that the United States—which claims to be the world’s beacon of democracy—has itself experienced democratic back- sliding. I provide the first natural experimental test of this hypothesis by exploiting that the January 6 insurrection of the US Capitol unexpectedly occurred while Gallup was conducting nationally-representative surveys in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Romania, and Vietnam. Because Gallup uses random digit dialing I can identify the effect by comparing US leadership approval among respondents that were interviewed just before, and just after, January 6, 2021. I find that the insurrection had no effect on US approval. If even a violent attempt to overturn a free and fair election does not affect US approval abroad it is unlikely that any other domestic anti-democratic event will.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Are Lowest among Political Outsiders in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byungkyu Lee ◽  
James Chu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Longitudinal Survey ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Longitudinal Survey Data ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The U.S

Vaccine hesitancy is a critical barrier to widespread vaccination uptake and containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, vaccines have become politically polarized, with high rates of vaccine hesitancy observed among Republicans. In contrast to prior research focusing on partisan gaps, we investigate vaccination attitudes and uptake among a group overlooked in prior research: those who are eligible to vote but did not register in the presidential elections. Drawing on nationally representative and longitudinal survey data from April 2020 to October 2021, we show that this group – whom we call “political outsiders” – represents about 16% of the U.S. population. They had the lowest vaccination rate (47%) by 2021 October, significantly lower than Republican (65%), Independent (76%), and Democratic voters (88%). Further, we find that political outsiders are less likely to trust physicians compared to other partisan groups. Because the sources they trust differ from partisans, existing public health messaging may be less likely to reach them successfully. Finally, we find that political outsiders experience more socio-economic hardships and are less integrated into society. Hence, our results underscore the importance of targeted efforts to reach this highly vulnerable population.

scholarly journals Climate Change in the American Mind: April 2019

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Leiserowitz ◽  
Edward Maibach ◽  
Seth A. Rosenthal ◽  
John Kotcher ◽  
Parrish Bergquist ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Climate Change Communication ◽  
American Mind ◽  
University Center ◽  
Change Communication ◽  
George Mason University ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The U.S

This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (climatecommunication.yale.edu) and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication (climatechangecommunication.org). Interview dates: March 29-April 8, 2019. Interviews: 1,291 adults in the U.S. (18+).

scholarly journals Dixie Backlash? Anti-Southern Affect and Party Support Outside the South

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 179-206
Author(s):  
Jonathan Knuckey
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
The Political ◽  
The South ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Partisan Change ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Party Support ◽  
Election Studies

The literature on partisan change in the American electorate has devoted considerable attention to explaining Republican gains in the South. Less time has been devoted to examining changes outside of the South, where a Democratic majority has persisted-and indeed grown-over the past two decades. This article examines whether the realignment toward the Republican Party in the South has resulted in a move toward the Democratic Party outside the South. Specifically, it is posited that the growing influence of the South within the Republican Party has resulted in a backlash against the GOP. Using data from the American National Election Studies, this article examines affect toward southerners as a determinant of the political behavior of non-southerners. Findings indicate that even after controlling for other explanatory variables, affect toward southerners is a significant predictor of how non-southerners evaluate the political parties, as well as vote choice in the 2008 presidential election. While partisanship and ideology remain the best predictors of vote choice among non-southerners, anti-southern backlash should not be discounted for the GOP's "Northern problem" in recent elections.

The U.S. Presidential Campaign, 2016

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-41
Author(s):  
Michael E. Meagher ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Political Regime ◽  
The Political ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Race And Religion ◽  
The U.S

This essay explores the 2016 election using 1964 for comparison. The central theme is that 1964 set the context for subsequent presidential elections. Issues and public policy revolved around the standards set by the 1964 converting election. Both race and religion played a role in the 1964 converting election that redefined the Democratic Party as the liberal political party for the nation, and the Republican as its conservative counterpart. This established a political regime that endures until the present day, but its endurance has had deleterious consequences for the discussion of new proposals. Change happens slowly and piecemeal. Both parties maintain high levels of spending as politics has been reduced to administration, a technocracy rather than representative democracy. The resulting pressures and frustrations manifest themselves with increasing frequency in the political system. The tumultuous 2016 campaign is the latest manifestation of this dissatisfaction among voters. Given the peculiarities of 2016, are we on the verge of a historic realignment, one that may set a similar standard for a generation?

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