scholarly journals The January 6 Insurrection and America's Standing Abroad: Natural Experimental Evidence from Five Unexpectedly Interrupted Public Opinion Surveys

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam van Noort
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Experimental Test ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Random Digit Dialing ◽  
Random Digit ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nationally Representative

American geopolitical power partly relies on foreign public support for its leadership. Pundits worry that this support is evaporating now that the United States—which claims to be the world’s beacon of democracy—has itself experienced democratic back- sliding. I provide the first natural experimental test of this hypothesis by exploiting that the January 6 insurrection of the US Capitol unexpectedly occurred while Gallup was conducting nationally-representative surveys in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Romania, and Vietnam. Because Gallup uses random digit dialing I can identify the effect by comparing US leadership approval among respondents that were interviewed just before, and just after, January 6, 2021. I find that the insurrection had no effect on US approval. If even a violent attempt to overturn a free and fair election does not affect US approval abroad it is unlikely that any other domestic anti-democratic event will.

Racial Sentiment and Public Support for Arming Teachers with Guns in the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 215336872110389
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Baranauskas
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
African Americans ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Racial Issue ◽  
Racial Resentment ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Negative Feelings

In the effort to prevent school shootings in the United States, policies that aim to arm teachers with guns have received considerable attention. Recent research on public support for these policies finds that African Americans are substantially less likely to support them, indicating that support for arming teachers is a racial issue. Given the racialized nature of support for punitive crime policies in the United States, it is possible that racial sentiment shapes support for arming teachers as well. This study aims to determine the association between two types of racial sentiment—explicit negative feelings toward racial/ethnic minority groups and racial resentment—and support for arming teachers using a nationally representative data set. While explicit negative feelings toward African Americans and Hispanics are not associated with support for arming teachers, those with racial resentments are significantly more likely to support arming teachers. Racial resentment also weakens the effect of other variables found to be associated with support for arming teachers, including conservative ideology and economic pessimism. Implications for policy and research are discussed.

Mobilising ‘Minutemen’: Predicting Public Support for Anti-Immigration Activism in the United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 195-212
Author(s):  
Matthew Ward
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cultural Beliefs ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Willingness To Participate ◽  
Sequential Process ◽  
Economic Threat ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Actual Participation

Advances in social movement research conceptualise micromobilisation as – at least – a two-step sequential process in which willingness to participate must first be generated and then translated into actual participation. However, such research often ignores a more fundamental first step in this process: the generation of movement support. I address this gap by drawing on a nationally representative sample of adults in the United States – who either sympathised with or opposed anti-immigration activism – to identify individual attributes differentiating anti-immigration movement supporters and non-supporters. Perceptions of economic threat, waning confidence in political leadership, and prejudicial cultural beliefs about Latinos represent attributes differentiated movement supporters from non-supporters. Power devaluation theory is used as an overarching framework to meaningfully interpret these results. More generally, I argue that grievances play an important, yet under theorised role in jumpstarting conservative micromobilisation and that principles from power devaluation theory can help us understand the differentiation of movement support, irrespective of a social movement's political orientation.

E-Cigarette Advice to Patients From Physicians and Dentists in the United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1228-1233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Drouin ◽  
Robert C. McMillen ◽  
Jonathan D. Klein ◽  
Jonathan P. Winickoff
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fisher Exact Test ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
The Past ◽  
Random Digit Dialing ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Nationally Representative

Purpose: To report on adults’ recall of discussion by physicians and dentists about e-cigarettes. Design: A nationally representative cross-sectional survey (Internet and random digit dialing) in the United States. Participants: Adults who ever used e-cigarettes. Measures: Participant-reported discussion about the potential benefits and harms of e-cigarettes with their doctor, dentist, or child’s doctor in the past 12 months. Analysis: Fisher exact test for the analysis between benefits and harms for each type of provider and for rates of advice between provider types. Results: Among the 3030 adults who completed the survey, 523 (17.2%) had ever used e-cigarettes. Of those who had seen their doctor, dentist, or child’s doctor in the last year, 7.3%, 1.7%, and 10.1%, respectively, reported discussing potential harms of e-cigarettes. Conversely, 5.8%, 1.7%, and 9.3% of patients who had seen their doctor, dentist, or child’s doctor in the last year reported that the clinician discussed the potential benefits of e-cigarettes. Each clinician type was as likely to discuss harms as benefits. Rates of advice were similar between doctors and child’s doctors but lower for dentists. Rates were comparable when the analysis was limited to current e-cigarette users, participants with children, or those who reported using both e-cigarettes and combusted tobacco. Conclusions: Few physicians and dentists discuss either the harms or benefits of e-cigarettes with their patients. These data suggest an opportunity to educate, train, and provide resources for physicians and dentists about e-cigarettes and their use.

scholarly journals Solidarities, Fairness, and Economic Governance in Advanced Capitalism: The Cases of COVID-19 Responses in Germany and the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achim Goerres ◽  
Mark I. Vail
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Governance ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Economic Relationships ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Theoretical Question

This paper addresses the theoretical question of how competing models of social and economic solidarity shape patterns of economic governance in periods of economic crisis. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a signal case, we seek to understand how changes in public opinion in response to similar social and economic shocks are informed by deeper ideational structures among citizens relating to their capacity for empathy, mutual support, and willingness to support and trust public policy interventions. Drawing on scholarly literatures related to moral economies and the social embeddedness of economic relationships, we undertake an empirical study of how the COVID-19 pandemic has shaped patterns of support for social and economic policies. We focus on Germany and the United States, countries with widely divergent modes of integration of capitalist markets and, therefore, potentially different levels of support for particular kinds of policy responses. We trace American and German policy responses since March 2020 across a number of domains, complemented by a systematic analysis of public opinion in the two countries, drawing from fifteen different sources of public-opinion data, in order to assess the pandemic’s effects on public support for individualized and collectively-oriented policy responses.

Audience Beliefs and International Organization Legitimacy

2009 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 733-764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terrence L. Chapman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Causal Chain ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Strategic Information ◽  
Un Security Council

AbstractRecent work suggests that multilateral security institutions, such as the UN Security Council, can influence foreign policy through public opinion. According to this view, authorization can increase public support for foreign policy, freeing domestic constraints. Governments that feel constrained by public opinion may thus alter their foreign policies to garner external authorization. These claims challenge traditional realist views about the role of international organizations in security affairs, which tend to focus on direct enforcement mechanisms and neglect indirect channels of influence. To examine these claims, this article investigates the first link in this causal chain—the effect of institutional statements on public opinion. Strategic information arguments, as opposed to arguments about the symbolic legitimacy of specific organizations or the procedural importance of consultation, posit that the effect of institutional statements on public opinion is conditional on public perceptions of member states' interests. This article tests this conditional relationship in the context of changes in presidential approval surrounding military disputes, using a measure of preference distance between the United States and veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council. Findings indicate that short-term changes in presidential approval surrounding the onset of military disputes in the United States between 1946 and 2001 have been significantly larger when accompanied by a positive resolution for a Security Council that is more distant in terms of foreign policy preferences. The article also discusses polling data during the 1990s and 2000s that support the strategic information perspective.

scholarly journals Revealing public opinion towards COVID-19 vaccines using Twitter data in the United States: a spatiotemporal perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Hu ◽  
Siqin Wang ◽  
Wei Luo ◽  
Yingwei Yan ◽  
Mengxi Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Attitudes ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Sentiment ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
The Us ◽  
Key Events

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has imposed a large, initially uncontrollable, public health crisis both in the United States (US) and across the world, with experts looking to vaccines as the ultimate mechanism of defense. The development and deployment of COVID-19 vaccines have been rapidly advancing via global efforts. Hence, it is crucial for governments, public health officials, and policy makers to understand public attitudes and opinions towards vaccines, such that effective interventions and educational campaigns can be designed to promote vaccine acceptance. Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate public opinion and perception on COVID-19 vaccines by investigating the spatiotemporal trends of their sentiment and emotion towards vaccines, as well as how such trends relate to popular topics on Twitter in the US. Methods: We collected over 300,000 geotagged tweets in the US from March 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021. We examined the spatiotemporal patterns of public sentiment and emotion over time at both national and state scales and identified three phases along the pandemic timeline with the significant changes of public sentiment and emotion. We further linked the changes to eleven key events and major topics as the potential drivers to induce such changes via cloud mapping of keywords and topic modeling. Results: An increasing trend of positive sentiment in parallel with the decrease of negative sentiment are generally observed in most states, reflecting the rising confidence and anticipation of the public towards COVID-19 vaccines. The overall tendency of the eight types of emotion implies the trustiness and anticipation of the public to vaccination, accompanied by the mixture of fear, sadness and anger. Critical social/international events and/or the announcements of political leaders and authorities may have potential impacts on the public opinion on vaccines. These factors, along with important topics and manual reading of popular posts on eleven key events, help identify underlying themes and validate insights from the analysis. Conclusions: The analyses of near real-time social media big data benefit public health authorities by enabling them to monitor public attitudes and opinions towards vaccine-related information in a geo-aware manner, address the concerns of vaccine skeptics and promote the confidence of individuals within a certain region or community, towards vaccines.

scholarly journals Strategies and Tactics in Gaining Public Opinion

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (1-2 (6)) ◽  
pp. 66-71
Author(s):  
Armine Simonyan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
Democratic Principles ◽  
First Time ◽  
To Receive

One of the contemporary spheres of modern linguistics is the study of political discourse.For a politician, language is a weapon to win the favours of public at large. The article aims to reveal how American politicians use English to receive the support of the nation. The research is conducted on the debates between the US presidential candidates in 2008 – Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama. The reason for the choice is obvious. Both candidates, as members of the same party, seem to have a lot in common. Both belong to the same party, hence, they should have an audience committed to the same democratic principles whereas, the differences are more than obvious. It is the first time in the history of the United States that the post of the US president has two main candidates that are so different – a woman and a coloured man. The article includes research on the tactics and strategies applied by both the candidates.

scholarly journals Current surveys may underestimate climate change skepticism evidence from list experiments in Germany and the USA

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0251034
Author(s):  
Liam F. Beiser-McGrath ◽  
Thomas Bernauer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation Policy ◽  
The Usa

Strong public support is a prerequisite for ambitious and thus costly climate change mitigation policy, and strong public concern over climate change is a prerequisite for policy support. Why, then, do most public opinion surveys indicate rather high levels of concern and rather strong policy support, while de facto mitigation efforts in most countries remain far from ambitious? One possibility is that survey measures for public concern fail to fully reveal the true attitudes of citizens due to social desirability bias. In this paper, we implemented list-experiments in representative surveys in Germany and the United States (N = 3620 and 3640 respectively) to assess such potential bias. We find evidence that people systematically misreport, that is, understate their disbelief in human caused climate change. This misreporting is particularly strong amongst politically relevant subgroups. Individuals in the top 20% of the income distribution in the United States and supporters of conservative parties in Germany exhibit significantly higher climate change skepticism according to the list experiment, relative to conventional measures. While this does not definitively mean that climate skepticism is a widespread phenomenon in these countries, it does suggest that future research should reconsider how climate change concern is measured, and what subgroups of the population are more susceptible to misreporting and why. Our findings imply that public support for ambitious climate policy may be weaker than existing survey research suggests.

Do campaigns matter outside the United States? Equilibrium and enlightenment in Korean presidential elections

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-39
Author(s):  
Jeonghun Min ◽  
Paul-Henri Gurian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Presidential Campaigns ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vote Intention

Do presidential campaigns matter outside the United States? We examine how public opinion responds to campaign events during Korean presidential campaigns. The fundamental variables of the election year influence vote intention before the campaign begins and substantially influence eventual vote choice. Campaign events assist voters to learn more about the fundamental variables – regionalism, party identification, and retrospective evaluations of the incumbent administration – and this leads to more informed intentions during the campaign. The results suggest that there is substantial congruence in the explanatory power of Holbrook’s ‘equilibrium’ theory and Gelman and King’s ‘enlightenment’ theory in presidential campaigns held in the US and in Korea.

A Second Look at Views on Women’s Ordination

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin R. Knoll and ◽  
Cammie Jo Bolin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Survey Tool ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
Accurate Picture ◽  
Female Clergy ◽  
Women's Ordination ◽  
List Experiment ◽  
Item Count Technique

This chapter asks whether it is reasonable to expect that the data is revealing a fully accurate picture of the prevalence of support for female ordination in the United States. When asked by a telephone surveyor whether they are in favor of women being allowed to serve as clergy in their own congregation, respondents might feel social pressure to say “yes” when in actuality they are more hesitant. This chapter takes advantage of a survey tool called a “list experiment” (or “item-count technique”) to examine whether there is any evidence that support for female ordination is either over- or underreported in our public opinion surveys. It finds this is indeed the case: support for female clergy is likely overreported among our survey respondents, especially among women, meaning that there are fewer supporters of female ordination than our public opinion surveys would lead one to believe.

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