scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Wind Waves Generated by Major Tropical Cyclones off the Coast of New Jersey, USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Marsooli ◽  
Mohammad Jamous ◽  
Jon K. Miller
Keyword(s):  
New Jersey ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surf Zone ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Hydrodynamic Wave

Coastal areas of State of New Jersey in the Northeastern United States are exposed to extreme wind waves generated by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean. Past studies suggest that the frequency and intensity of major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin would increase under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Furthermore, sea level observations have revealed that the local mean sea level along the coast of New Jersey is rising at a rate higher than that of the global sea level rise. The objective of this study is to quantify the combined influence of sea level rise (SLR) and hurricane climatology change on wave heights induced by major hurricanes off the coast of New Jersey. To this end, a coupled hydrodynamic-wave model is utilized to simulate wind waves for synthetic hurricanes generated for the climate conditions in the historical period of 1980–2000 and future period of 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. The synthetic storms are generated by a hurricane model for the climate conditions obtained from four different global climate models. The projections of future wave heights show statistically significant increases in the wave heights induced by major hurricanes. Under the combined effects of hurricane climatology change and a SLR of 1.19 m, the increase in the extreme wave heights 15% in back-bays and shallow waters of the nearshore zone and up to 10% in deeper coastal waters. It is found that SLR alone would result in a significant increase in the hurricane-induced wave heights in the present-day surf zone.

The potential impacts of sea level rise on the coastal region of New Jersey, USA

2008 ◽  
Vol 90 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. P. Cooper ◽  
Michael D. Beevers ◽  
Michael Oppenheimer
Keyword(s):  
New Jersey ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Region

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (45) ◽  
pp. 11861-11866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andra J. Garner ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Kerry A. Emanuel ◽  
Robert E. Kopp ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
York City ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Tidal Level

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse.

Preventing local extinctions of tidal marsh endemic Seaside Sparrows and Saltmarsh Sparrows in eastern North America

The Condor ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 121 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel G Roberts ◽  
Rebecca A Longenecker ◽  
Matthew A Etterson ◽  
Chris S Elphick ◽  
Brian J Olsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Jersey ◽  
North America ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Population Persistence ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Saltmarsh Sparrow ◽  
Management Actions

Abstract Globally limited to 45,000 km2, salt marshes and their endemic species are threatened by numerous anthropogenic influences, including sea-level rise and predator pressure on survival and nesting success. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, Seaside (Ammospiza maritima) and Saltmarsh (A. caudacuta) sparrows are endemic to salt marshes, with Saltmarsh Sparrows declining by 9% annually. Because vital rates and factors affecting population persistence vary for both species, local estimates are necessary to best predict population persistence in response to management actions. We used a metapopulation model to estimate the population viability of the breeding Seaside and Saltmarsh sparrow populations in coastal New Jersey over a 42-yr period. We incorporated empirical data on the vital rates and abundances of these populations and simulated the effect of low (0.35 m) and high (0.75 m) levels of sea-level rise. We found that the Seaside Sparrow population persisted under both sea-level rise scenarios; however, the Saltmarsh Sparrow population reached a quasi-extinction threshold within 20 yr. Using the same framework, we modeled potential management scenarios that could increase the persistence probability of Saltmarsh Sparrows and found that fecundity and juvenile survival rates will require at least a 15% concurrent increase for the local population to persist beyond 2050. Future field research should evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of management actions, such as predator control, for increasing Saltmarsh Sparrow vital rates in order to maintain the species in coastal New Jersey.

scholarly journals Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (12) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Pardaens ◽  
J. A. Lowe ◽  
S. Brown ◽  
R. J. Nicholls ◽  
D. de Gusmão
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Gas Emission ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Future Scenario

Sea-level rise in New Jersey over the past 5000 years: Implications to anthropogenic changes

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 10-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth G. Miller ◽  
Peter J. Sugarman ◽  
James V. Browning ◽  
Benjamin P. Horton ◽  
Alissa Stanley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Jersey ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Anthropogenic Changes ◽  
The Past

scholarly journals Coastal Flooding in the Maldives Induced by Mean Sea-Level Rise and Wind-Waves: From Global to Local Coastal Modelling

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angel Amores ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Rodrigo Pedreros ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽  
Sophie Lecacheux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Major Drawback ◽  
Mean Sea Level

The Maldives, with one of the lowest average land elevations above present-day mean sea level, is among the world regions that will be the most impacted by mean sea-level rise and marine extreme events induced by climate change. Yet, the lack of regional and local information on marine drivers is a major drawback that coastal decision-makers face to anticipate the impacts of climate change along the Maldivian coastlines. In this study we focus on wind-waves, the main driver of extremes causing coastal flooding in the region. We dynamically downscale large-scale fields from global wave models, providing a valuable source of climate information along the coastlines with spatial resolution down to 500 m. This dataset serves to characterise the wave climate around the Maldives, with applications in regional development and land reclamation, and is also an essential input for local flood hazard modelling. We illustrate this with a case study of HA Hoarafushi, an atoll island where local topo-bathymetry is available. This island is exposed to the highest incoming waves in the archipelago and recently saw development of an airport island on its reef via land reclamation. Regional waves are propagated toward the shoreline using a phase-resolving model and coastal inundation is simulated under different mean sea-level rise conditions of up to 1 m above present-day mean sea level. The results are represented as risk maps with different hazard levels gathering inundation depth and speed, providing a clear evidence of the impacts of the sea level rise combined with extreme wave events.

scholarly journals The status and future of tidal marshes in New Jersey faced with sea level rise

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-192
Author(s):  
Judith S. Weis ◽  
Elizabeth Burke Watson ◽  
Beth Ravit ◽  
Charles Harman ◽  
Metthea Yepsen
Keyword(s):  
New Jersey ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Tidal Marshes ◽  
Wetland Ecosystems ◽  
Marsh Loss ◽  
Migration Pathways

Salt marshes are key coastal ecosystems that provide habitats for wildlife, including invertebrates, fishes, and birds. They provide ecosystem services such as protection from storm surges and waves, attenuation of flooding, sequestration of pollutants (e.g., blue carbon), and nutrient removal. They are currently under great threat from sea level rise (SLR). We collected information about trends in the horizontal extent (acreage) of New Jersey salt marshes and recent elevation changes compared with the current local rate of SLR in New Jersey, which is between 5 and 6 mm year−1. We found pervasive, although variable, rates of marsh loss that resulted from both anthropogenic disturbance as well as edge erosion and interior ponding expected from SLR. Elevation trends suggest that the current rates of SLR exceed most marsh elevation gains, although some Phragmites-dominated marshes keep pace with SLR. Four potential remedies to address current coastal trends of marsh loss were described in the context of New Jersey’s regulatory and management environment: protection of marsh inland migration pathways, altered management of Phragmites, thin layer sediment placement, and living shoreline installations. Proactive steps are necessary if coastal wetland ecosystems are to be maintained over the next few decades.

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