Hurricane Scenario Generation for Uncertainty Modeling of Coastal and Inland Flooding

Hurricanes often induce catastrophic flooding due to both storm surge near the coast, and pluvial and fluvial flooding further inland. In an effort to contribute to uncertainty quantification of impending flood events, we propose a probabilistic scenario generation scheme for hurricane flooding using state-of-art hydrological models to forecast both inland and coastal flooding. The hurricane scenario generation scheme incorporates locational uncertainty in hurricane landfall locations. For an impending hurricane, we develop a method to generate multiple scenarios by the predicated landfall location and adjusting corresponding meteorological characteristics such as precipitation. By combining inland and coastal flooding models, we seek to provide a comprehensive understanding of potential flood scenarios for an impending hurricane. To demonstrate the modeling approach, we use real-world data from the Southeast Texas region in our case study.

Download Full-text

A novel interval forecasting system for uncertainty modeling based on multi-input multi-output theory: A case study on modern wind stations

Renewable Energy ◽

10.1016/j.renene.2020.08.139 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 163 ◽

pp. 88-104

Author(s):

Tongxiang Liu ◽

Qiujun Zhao ◽

Jianzhou Wang ◽

Yuyang Gao

Keyword(s):

Uncertainty Modeling ◽

Forecasting System

Download Full-text

Territorial governance of managed retreat in Sweden: addressing challenges

Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences ◽

10.1007/s13412-021-00696-z ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gunnel Göransson ◽

Lisa Van Well ◽

David Bendz ◽

Per Danielsson ◽

Jim Hedfors

Keyword(s):

Climate Adaptation ◽

Governance Framework ◽

Case Study Site ◽

Feasible Option ◽

Flexible Planning ◽

Barriers And Opportunities ◽

Study Sites ◽

Inland Flooding

AbstractMany climate adaptation options currently being discussed in Sweden to meet the challenge of surging seas and inland flooding advocate holding the line through various hard and soft measures to stabilize the shoreline, while managed retreat is neither considered as feasible option nor has it been explicitly researched in Sweden. However, failure to consider future flooding from climate change in municipal planning may have dangerous and costly consequences when the water does come. We suggest that managed retreat practices are challenging in Sweden, not only due to public opinions but also because of a deficit of uptake of territorial knowledge by decision-makers and difficulties in realizing flexible planning options of the shoreline. A territorial governance framework was used as a heuristic to explore the challenges to managed retreat in four urban case studies (three municipalities and one county) representing different territorial, hydrological and oceanographic environments. This was done through a series of participatory stakeholder workshops. The analysis using a territorial governance framework based on dimensions of coordination, integration, mobilization, adaptation and realization presents variations in how managed retreat barriers and opportunities are perceived among case study sites, mainly due to the differing territorial or place-based challenges. The results also indicate common challenges regardless of the case study site, including coordination challenges and unclear responsibility, the need for integrated means of addressing goal conflicts and being able to adapt flexibly to existing regulations and plans. Yet rethinking how managed retreat could boost community resilience and help to implement long-term visions was seen as a way to deal with some of the territorial challenges.

Download Full-text

Wave farm impacts on coastal flooding under sea-level rise: A case study in southern Spain

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.422 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 653 ◽

pp. 1522-1531 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Rafael J. Bergillos ◽

Cristobal Rodriguez-Delgado ◽

Gregorio Iglesias

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Coastal Flooding ◽

Southern Spain ◽

Wave Farm

Download Full-text

Uncertainty modeling process for semantic technology

PeerJ Computer Science ◽

10.7717/peerj-cs.77 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 2 ◽

pp. e77 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Rommel N. Carvalho ◽

Kathryn B. Laskey ◽

Paulo C.G. Da Costa

Keyword(s):

Knowledge Engineering ◽

Uncertainty Modeling ◽

Domain Model ◽

Proof Of Concept ◽

Semantic Technology ◽

Modeling Process ◽

Ontology Language ◽

Domain Semantics ◽

Probabilistic Ontology

The ubiquity of uncertainty across application domains generates a need for principled support for uncertainty management in semantically aware systems. A probabilistic ontology provides constructs for representing uncertainty in domain ontologies. While the literature has been growing on formalisms for representing uncertainty in ontologies, there remains little guidance in the knowledge engineering literature for how to design probabilistic ontologies. To address the gap, this paper presents the Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technology (UMP-ST), a new methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies. To explain how the methodology works and to verify that it can be applied to different scenarios, this paper describes step-by-step the construction of a proof-of-concept probabilistic ontology. The resulting domain model can be used to support identification of fraud in public procurements in Brazil. While the case study illustrates the development of a probabilistic ontology in the PR-OWL probabilistic ontology language, the methodology is applicable to any ontology formalism that properly integrates uncertainty with domain semantics.

Download Full-text

Development of an Innovative Real-World Evidence Registry for the Herpes Simplex Virus: Case Study

JMIR Dermatology ◽

10.2196/16933 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. e16933 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Michelle Helena van Velthoven ◽

Ching Lam ◽

Caroline de Cock ◽

Terese Stenfors ◽

Hassan Chaudhury ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Herpes Simplex Virus ◽

Herpes Simplex ◽

Real World ◽

Physical Symptoms ◽

Use Cases ◽

Real World Data ◽

World Data ◽

Real World Evidence ◽

Simplex Virus

Background Infection with the herpes simplex virus (HSV) is common but not well understood. Furthermore, there remains a social stigma surrounding HSV that can have psychosocial implications for those infected. Despite many patients infected with HSV experiencing mild-to-severe physical symptoms, only one subeffective treatment is available. A registry collecting real-world data reported by individuals potentially infected with HSV could help patients to better understand and manage their condition. Objective This study aimed to report on the development of a registry to collect real-world data reported by people who might be infected with HSV. Methods A case study design was selected as it provides a systematic and in-depth approach to investigating the planning phase of the registry. The case study followed seven stages: plan, design, prepare, collect, analyze, create, and share. We carried out semistructured interviews with experts, which were thematically analyzed and used to build use cases for the proposed registry. These use cases will be used to generate detailed models of how a real-world evidence registry might be perceived and used by different users. Results The following key themes were identified in the interviews: (1) stigma and anonymity, (2) selection bias, (3) understanding treatment and outcome gaps, (4) lifestyle factors, (5) individualized versus population-level data, and (6) severe complications of HSV. We developed use cases for different types of users of the registry, including individuals with HSV, members of the public, researchers, and clinicians. Conclusions This case study revealed key considerations and insights for the development of an appropriate registry to collect real-world data reported by people who might be infected with HSV. Further development and testing of the registry with different users is required. The registry must also be evaluated for the feasibility and effectiveness of collecting data to support symptom management. This registry has the potential to contribute to the development of vaccines and treatments and provide insights into the impact of HSV on other conditions.

Download Full-text

Why We Go Where We Go: Profiling User Decisions on Choosing POIs

Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence ◽

10.24963/ijcai.2020/478 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Renjun Hu ◽

Xinjiang Lu ◽

Chuanren Liu ◽

Yanyan Li ◽

Hao Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Key Factors ◽

Real World Data ◽

Decision Factors ◽

Point Of Interest ◽

Learning Factor ◽

Poi Recommendation ◽

Key Factor ◽

Selection Of ◽

Decision Structures

While Point-of-Interest (POI) recommendation has been a popular topic of study for some time, little progress has been made for understanding why and how people make their decisions for the selection of POIs. To this end, in this paper, we propose a user decision profiling framework, named PROUD, which can identify the key factors in people's decisions on choosing POIs. Specifically, we treat each user decision as a set of factors and provide a method for learning factor embeddings. A unique perspective of our approach is to identify key factors, while preserving decision structures seamlessly, via a novel scalar projection maximization objective. Exactly solving the objective is non-trivial due to a sparsity constraint. To address this, our PROUD adopts a self projection attention and an L2 regularized sparse activation to directly estimate the likelihood of each factor to be a key factor. Finally, extensive experiments on real-world data validate the advantage of PROUD in preserving user decision structures. Also, our case study indicates that the identified key decision factors can help us to provide more interpretable recommendations and analyses.

Download Full-text

Dynamic virtual infrastructure benchmarking: DynaVIBe

Water Science & Technology Water Supply ◽

10.2166/ws.2010.188 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 600-609 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

R. Sitzenfrei ◽

S. Fach ◽

M. Kleidorfer ◽

C. Urich ◽

W. Rauch

Keyword(s):

Case Studies ◽

Distribution Systems ◽

Water Distribution ◽

New Technologies ◽

Study Data ◽

Data Availability ◽

Urban Structure ◽

Real World Data ◽

Virtual Infrastructure

In environmental engineering, identification of problems and their solutions as well as the identification of the relevant processes involved is often done by means of case study analyses. By researching the operation of urban drainage and water distribution systems, this methodology is suited to evaluate new technologies, strategies or measures with regard to their impact on the overall processes. However, data availability is often limited and data collection and the development of new models are both costly and time consuming. Hence, new technologies, strategies or measures can only be tested on a limited number of case studies. In several environmental disciplines a few virtual case studies have been manually developed to provide data for research tasks and these are repeatedly used in different research projects. Efforts have also been invested in tackling limited data availability with the algorithmic generation of virtual case studies having constant or varying boundary conditions. The data provided by such tools is nevertheless only available for a certain instance in time. With DynaVIBe (Dynamic Virtual Infrastructure Benchmarking), numerous virtual case studies are algorithmically generated with a temporal development of the urban structure (population and land use model) and infrastructure. This provides a methodology that allows for the analysis of future scenarios on a spatio-temporal city scale. By linking a population model with DynaVIBe's infrastructure models, socio-economics impacts on infrastructure and system coherences can be investigated. The problematic of limited case study data is solved by the algorithmic generation of an unlimited number of virtual case studies, which are dynamic over time. Additionally, this methodology can also be applied on real world data for probabilistic future scenario analysis.

Download Full-text

Security of Railway Infrastructures

Railway Safety, Reliability, and Security ◽

10.4018/978-1-4666-1643-1.ch017 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 355-379

Author(s):

A. Di Febbraro ◽

F. Papa ◽

N. Sacco

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Real World ◽

Analysis Tool ◽

Security Risk ◽

Input Output ◽

Real World Data ◽

Security Problem ◽

Output Characteristics ◽

General Architecture

The chapter is organized as follows: In section 1, the basic definitions of the security risk analysis and the characteristics of the railway security problem are introduced, and a bibliography review is reported. Then, in section 2, the general architecture for designing a security risk analysis tool is presented, focusing on the relevant specifications, and on the input/output characteristics. Therefore, in section 3, with the aim of pointing out the characteristics of the presented architecture, an explicative case study is defined based on real world data coming from Italian railways. Finally, some conclusions and remarks are discussed in chapter 4.

Download Full-text

Designing Mobile Multimodal Applications

Multimodality in Mobile Computing and Mobile Devices ◽

10.4018/978-1-60566-978-6.ch005 ◽

2010 ◽

pp. 106-135 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Marco de Sá ◽

Carlos Duarte ◽

Luís Carriço ◽

Tiago Reis

Keyword(s):

Quantitative Analysis ◽

Mobile Application ◽

Early Stage ◽

Evaluation Process ◽

Scenario Generation ◽

Blind Users ◽

Digital Books ◽

Support Evaluation

In this chapter we describe a set of techniques and tools that aim at supporting designers while creating mobile multimodal applications. We explain how the additional difficulties that designers face during this process, especially those related to multimodalities, can be tackled. In particular, we present a scenario generation and context definition framework that can be used to drive design and support evaluation within realistic settings, promoting in-situ design and richer results. In conjunction with the scenario framework, we detail a prototyping tool that was developed to support the early stage prototyping and evaluation process of mobile multimodal applications, from the first sketch-based prototypes up to the final quantitative analysis of usage results. As a case study, we describe a mobile application for accessing and reading rich digital books. The application aims at offering users, in particular blind users, means to read and annotate digital books and it was designed to be used on Pocket PCs and Smartphones, including a set of features that enhance both content and usability of traditional books.

Download Full-text