scholarly journals Information Entropy as Quantifier of Potential Predictability in the Tropical Indo-Pacific Basin

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olawale J. Ikuyajolu ◽  
Fabrizio Falasca ◽  
Annalisa Bracco
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Information Entropy ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Fast Method ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Linear Dynamical Systems ◽  
Climate Predictability ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Global warming is posed to modify the modes of variability that control much of the climate predictability at seasonal to interannual scales. The quantification of changes in climate predictability over any given amount of time, however, remains challenging. Here we build upon recent advances in non-linear dynamical systems theory and introduce the climate community to an information entropy quantifier based on recurrence. The entropy, or complexity of a system is associated with microstates that recur over time in the time-series that define the system, and therefore to its predictability potential. A computationally fast method to evaluate the entropy is applied to the investigation of the information entropy of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, focusing on boreal fall. In this season the predictability of the basins is controlled by two regularly varying non-linear oscillations, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. We compute and compare the entropy in simulations from the CMIP5 catalog from the historical period and RCP8.5 scenario, and in reanalysis datasets. Discrepancies are found between the models and the reanalysis, and no robust changes in predictability can be identified in future projections. The Indian Ocean and the equatorial Pacific emerge as troublesome areas where the modeled entropy differs the most from that of the reanalysis in many models. A brief investigation of the source of the bias points to a poor representation of the ocean mean state and basins' connectivity at the Indonesian Throughflow.

scholarly journals Indian Ocean impact on ENSO evolution 2014–2016 in a set of seasonal forecasting experiments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variations ◽  
The Indian Ocean

AbstractThis study investigates the influence of the anomalously warm Indian Ocean state on the unprecedentedly weak Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the unexpected evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 2014–2016. It uses 25-month-long coupled twin forecast experiments with modified Indian Ocean initial conditions sampling observed decadal variations. An unperturbed experiment initialized in Feb 2014 forecasts moderately warm ENSO conditions in year 1 and year 2 and an anomalously weak ITF throughout, which acts to keep tropical Pacific ocean heat content (OHC) anomalously high. Changing only the Indian Ocean to cooler 1997 conditions substantially alters the 2-year forecast of Tropical Pacific conditions. Differences include (i) increased probability of strong El Niño in 2014 and La Niña in 2015, (ii) significantly increased ITF transports and (iii), as a consequence, stronger Pacific ocean heat divergence and thus a reduction of Pacific OHC over the two years. The Indian Ocean’s impact in year 1 is via the atmospheric bridge arising from altered Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Effects of altered ITF and associated ocean heat divergence (oceanic tunnel) become apparent by year 2, including modified ENSO probabilities and Tropical Pacific OHC. A mirrored twin experiment starting from unperturbed 1997 conditions and several sensitivity experiments corroborate these findings. This work demonstrates the importance of the Indian Ocean’s decadal variations on ENSO and highlights the previously underappreciated role of the oceanic tunnel. Results also indicate that, given the physical links between year-to-year ENSO variations, 2-year-long forecasts can provide additional guidance for interpretation of forecasted year-1 ENSO probabilities.

scholarly journals Triggering the Indian Ocean Dipole from the Southern Hemisphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lian-Yi Zhang ◽  
Yan Du ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Zesheng Chen ◽  
Tomoki Tozuka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Triggering Mechanism ◽  
Phase Development ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
High System ◽  
The Tropics

<p>This study identifies a new triggering mechanism of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) from the Southern Hemisphere. This mechanism is independent from the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tends to induce the IOD before its canonical peak season. The joint effects of this mechanism and ENSO may explain different lifetimes and strengths of the IOD. During its positive phase, development of sea surface temperature cold anomalies commences in the southern Indian Ocean, accompanied by an anomalous subtropical high system and anomalous southeasterly winds. The eastward movement of these anomalies enhances the monsoon off Sumatra-Java during May-August, leading to an early positive IOD onset. The pressure variability in the subtropical area is related with the Southern Annular Mode, suggesting a teleconnection between high-latitude and mid-latitude climate that can further affect the tropics. To include the subtropical signals may help model prediction of the IOD event.</p>

scholarly journals Globalisation and Difference: Cosmopolitanism Before the Nation-State

2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akhil Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Early Modern ◽  
Religious Beliefs ◽  
Cultural Practices ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Nation State ◽  
Limited Perspective ◽  
The Indian Ocean

In this paper, I have tried to reflect on what cosmopolitanism might mean in a very different era of globalisation than the present. Although cosmopolitanism, as an expansive and sociable vision, is often contrasted with the geographically limited perspective and claustrophobic affinities of nationalism, the term originates in a historical period before the rise of nationalism in Europe. I argue that the residents of the civilisations around the Indian Ocean in the medieval and early modern world were cosmopolitan even by the standards of the high modernist meaning of the term. Not only did a range of people transact and translate across different languages, but they also knew how to conduct themselves in different cultural settings with people of different religious beliefs, while respecting the disparate religious, social, and cultural practices of their neighbours.

scholarly journals Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño/Southern Oscillation impacts on regional chlorophyll anomalies in the Indian Ocean

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 6677-6698 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Currie ◽  
M. Lengaigne ◽  
J. Vialard ◽  
D. M. Kaplan ◽  
O. Aumont ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Climate Modes ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are independent climate modes, which frequently co-occur, driving significant interannual changes within the Indian Ocean. We use a four-decade hindcast from a coupled biophysical ocean general circulation model, to disentangle patterns of chlorophyll anomalies driven by these two climate modes. Comparisons with remotely sensed records show that the simulation competently reproduces the chlorophyll seasonal cycle, as well as open-ocean anomalies during the 1997/1998 ENSO and IOD event. Results suggest that anomalous surface and euphotic-layer chlorophyll blooms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in fall, and southern Bay of Bengal in winter, are primarily related to IOD forcing. A negative influence of IOD on chlorophyll concentrations is shown in a region around the southern tip of India in fall. IOD also depresses depth-integrated chlorophyll in the 5–10° S thermocline ridge region, yet the signal is negligible in surface chlorophyll. The only investigated region where ENSO has a greater influence on chlorophyll than does IOD, is in the Somalia upwelling region, where it causes a decrease in fall and winter chlorophyll by reducing local upwelling winds. Yet unlike most other regions examined, the combined explanatory power of IOD and ENSO in predicting depth-integrated chlorophyll anomalies is relatively low in this region, suggestive that other drivers are important there. We show that the chlorophyll impact of climate indices is frequently asymmetric, with a general tendency for larger positive than negative chlorophyll anomalies. Our results suggest that ENSO and IOD cause significant and predictable regional re-organisation of chlorophyll via their influence on near-surface oceanography. Resolving the details of these effects should improve our understanding, and eventually gain predictability, of interannual changes in Indian Ocean productivity, fisheries, ecosystems and carbon budgets.

scholarly journals The Years of El Niño, La Niña, and Interactions with the Tropical Indian Ocean

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 2872-2880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Meyers ◽  
Peter McIntosh ◽  
Lidia Pigot ◽  
Mike Pook
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The Indian Ocean zonal dipole is a mode of variability in sea surface temperature that seriously affects the climate of many nations around the Indian Ocean rim, as well as the global climate system. It has been the subject of increasing research, and sometimes of scientific debate concerning its existence/nonexistence and dependence/independence on/from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, since it was first clearly identified in Nature in 1999. Much of the debate occurred because people did not agree on what years are the El Niño or La Niña years, not to mention the newly defined years of the positive or negative dipole. A method that identifies when the positive or negative extrema of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole occur is proposed, and this method is used to classify each year from 1876 to 1999. The method is statistical in nature, but has a strong basis on the oceanic physical mechanisms that control the variability of the near-equatorial Indo-Pacific basin. Early in the study it was found that some years could not be clearly classified due to strong decadal variation; these years also must be recognized, along with the reason for their ambiguity. The sensitivity of the classification of years is tested by calculating composite maps of the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly and the probability of below median Australian rainfall for different categories of the El Niño–Indian Ocean relationship.

Recent Atmospheric Variability at Kibo Summit, Kilimanjaro, and Its Relation to Climate Mode Activity

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (10) ◽  
pp. 3875-3891 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Collier ◽  
Thomas Mölg ◽  
Tobias Sauter
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Rain Season ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Accurate knowledge of the impact of internal atmospheric variability is required for the detection and attribution of climate change and for interpreting glacier records. However, current knowledge of such impacts in high-mountain regions is largely based on statistical methods, as the observational data required for process-based assessments are often spatially or temporally deficient. Using a case study of Kilimanjaro, 12 years of convection-permitting atmospheric modeling are combined with an 8-yr observational record to evaluate the impact of climate oscillations on recent high-altitude atmospheric variability during the short rains (the secondary rain season in the region). The focus is on two modes that have a well-established relationship with precipitation during this season, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean zonal mode, and demonstrate their strong association with local and mesoscale conditions at Kilimanjaro. Both oscillations correlate positively with humidity fluctuations, but the association is strongest with the Indian Ocean zonal mode in the air layers near and above the glaciers because of changes in zonal circulation and moisture transport, emphasizing the importance of the moisture signal from this basin. However, the most anomalous conditions are found during co-occurring positive events because of the combined effects of the (i) extended positive sea surface temperature anomalies, (ii) enhanced atmospheric moisture capacity from higher tropospheric temperatures, (iii) most pronounced weakening of the subsiding branch of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation over East Africa, and (iv) stronger monsoonal moisture fluxes upstream from Kilimanjaro. This study lays the foundation for unraveling the contribution of climate modes to observed changes in Kilimanjaro’s glaciers.

Impact of Indo-Pacific Feedback Interactions on ENSO Dynamics Diagnosed Using Ensemble Climate Simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (21) ◽  
pp. 7743-7763 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Santoso ◽  
M. H. England ◽  
W. Cai
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Thermocline Feedback ◽  
Enso Dynamics ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Impact

The impact of Indo-Pacific climate feedback on the dynamics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated using an ensemble set of Indian Ocean decoupling experiments (DCPL), utilizing a millennial integration of a coupled climate model. It is found that eliminating air–sea interactions over the Indian Ocean results in various degrees of ENSO amplification across DCPL simulations, with a shift in the underlying dynamics toward a more prominent thermocline mode. The DCPL experiments reveal that the net effect of the Indian Ocean in the control runs (CTRL) is a damping of ENSO. The extent of this damping appears to be negatively correlated to the coherence between ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). This type of relationship can arise from the long-lasting ENSO events that the model simulates, such that developing ENSO often coincides with Indian Ocean basin-wide mode (IOBM) anomalies during non-IOD years. As demonstrated via AGCM experiments, the IOBM enhances western Pacific wind anomalies that counteract the ENSO-enhancing winds farther east. In the recharge oscillator framework, this weakens the equatorial Pacific air–sea coupling that governs the ENSO thermocline feedback. Relative to the IOBM, the IOD is more conducive for ENSO growth. The net damping by the Indian Ocean in CTRL is thus dominated by the IOBM effect which is weaker with stronger ENSO–IOD coherence. The stronger ENSO thermocline mode in DCPL is consistent with the absence of any IOBM anomalies. This study supports the notion that the Indian Ocean should be viewed as an integral part of ENSO dynamics.

scholarly journals Rainfall Teleconnections with Indo-Pacific Variability in the WCRP CMIP3 Models

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (19) ◽  
pp. 5046-5071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Arnold Sullivan ◽  
Tim Cowan
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Stochastic Noise ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The present study assesses the ability of climate models to simulate rainfall teleconnections with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). An assessment is provided on 24 climate models that constitute phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3), used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The strength of the ENSO–rainfall teleconnection, defined as the correlation between rainfall and Niño-3.4, is overwhelmingly controlled by the amplitude of ENSO signals relative to stochastic noise, highlighting the importance of realistically simulating this parameter. Because ENSO influences arise from the movement of convergence zones from their mean positions, the well-known equatorial Pacific climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and ENSO cold tongue anomaly biases lead to systematic errors. The climatological SSTs, which are far too cold along the Pacific equator, lead to a complete “nonresponse to ENSO” along the central and/or eastern equatorial Pacific in the majority of models. ENSO anomalies are also too equatorially confined and extend too far west, with linkages to a weakness in the teleconnection with Hawaii boreal winter rainfall and an inducement of a teleconnection with rainfall over west Papua New Guinea in austral summer. Another consequence of the ENSO cold tongue bias is that the majority of models produce too strong a coherence between SST anomalies in the west, central, and eastern equatorial Pacific. Consequently, the models’ ability in terms of producing differences in the impacts by ENSO from those by ENSO Modoki is reduced. Similarly, the IOD–rainfall teleconnection strengthens with an intensification of the IOD relative to the stochastic noise. A significant relationship exists between intermodel variations of IOD–ENSO coherence and intermodel variations of the ENSO amplitude in a small subset of models in which the ENSO anomaly structure and ENSO signal transmission to the Indian Ocean are better simulated. However, using all but one model (defined as an outlier) there is no systematic linkage between ENSO amplitude and IOD–ENSO coherence. Indeed, the majority of models produce an ENSO–IOD coherence lower than the observed, supporting the notion that the Indian Ocean has the ability to generate independent variability and that ENSO is not the only trigger of the IOD. Although models with a stronger IOD amplitude and rainfall teleconnection tend to have a greater ENSO amplitude, there is no causal relationship; instead this feature reflects a commensurate strength of the Bjerknes feedback in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

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