scholarly journals Has Stratospheric HCl in the Northern Hemisphere Been Increasing Since 2005?

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Han ◽  
Fei Xie ◽  
Jiankai Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Joint Effect ◽  
Residual Circulation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
The North ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Stratospheric hydrogen chloride (HCl) is the main stratospheric reservoir of chlorine, deriving from the decomposition of chlorine-containing source gases. Its trend has been used as a metric of ozone depletion or recovery. Using the latest satellite observations, it is found that the significant increase of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric HCl during 2010–2011 can mislead the trend of HCl in recent decades. In agreement with previous studies, HCl increased from 2005 to 2011; however, when the large increase of stratospheric HCl during 2010–2011 is removed, the increasing linear trend from 2005 to 2011 becomes weak and insignificant. In addition, the linear trend of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric HCl from 2005 to 2016 is also weak and insignificant. The significant increase of HCl during 2010–2011 is attributed to a strong northern polar vortex and a weakened residual circulation, which slowed down the transport of HCl between the low-mid latitudes and the high latitudes, leading to an accumulation of HCl in the middle latitudes of the stratosphere. In addition, a weakened residual circulation leads to enhance conversion of chlorine-containing source gases of different lifetimes to HCl, thus increasing the levels of HCl. Simulations by both chemistry transport and chemistry-climate models support the result. It is further found that the joint effect of a La Niña event, the west phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation and positive anomalies of sea surface temperature in the North Pacific is responsible for the strong northern polar vortex and a weakened residual circulation.

Has the stratospheric HCl in the Northern Hemisphere been increasing since 2005

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Han ◽  
Wenshou Tian ◽  
Fei Xie
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Joint Effect ◽  
Residual Circulation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
North Polar ◽  
North Polar Vortex ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

<p>Stratospheric hydrogen chloride (HCl) is the main stratospheric reservoir of chlorine, deriving from the decomposition of chlorine-containing source gases. Its trend has been used as a metrics of ozone depletion or recovery. Using the latest satellite observations, the authors find that a significant increase of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric HCl during 2010–2011 can mislead trends of HCl in recent decades. Agree with previous studies, HCl increased from 2005 to 2011; while when removing the large increase of stratospheric HCl during 2010–2011, the increasing linear trend from 2005 to 2011 becomes weak and insignificant, in addition, the linear trend of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric HCl from 2005 to 2016 also shows weak and insignificant. The significant increase of HCl during 2010–2011 is attributed to a super strong north polar vortex and a reduced residual circulation during 2010–2011, which slowed down the transport of HCl from the low–mid latitudes to the high latitudes, leading to accumulation of HCl in the middle latitudes of the stratosphere during 2010–2011. Further analysis suggests that the strong polar vortex and the reduced residual circulation were caused by the joint effect of a La Niña event and the west phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation.</p>

The Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Troposphere in Winter in a Hierarchy of Models. Part I: Simplified Dry GCMs

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (6) ◽  
pp. 1273-1289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The North ◽  
Subtropical Jet ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract A dry primitive equation model is used to explain how the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the tropical stratosphere can influence the troposphere, even in the absence of tropical convection anomalies and a variable stratospheric polar vortex. QBO momentum anomalies induce a meridional circulation to maintain thermal wind balance. This circulation includes zonal wind anomalies that extend from the equatorial stratosphere into the subtropical troposphere. In the presence of extratropical eddies, the zonal wind anomalies are intensified and extend downward to the surface. The tropospheric response differs qualitatively between integrations in which the subtropical jet is strong and integrations in which the subtropical jet is weak. While fluctuation–dissipation theory provides a guide to predicting the response in some cases, significant nonlinearity in others, particularly those designed to model the midwinter subtropical jet of the North Pacific, prevents its universal application. When the extratropical circulation is made zonally asymmetric, the response to the QBO is greatest in the exit region of the subtropical jet. The dry model is able to simulate much of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime tropospheric response to the QBO observed in reanalysis datasets and in long time integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM).

Development of the Extratropical Response to the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-44
Author(s):  
Jian Rao ◽  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Ian P. White
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Response ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

AbstractUsing the Model of an Idealized Moist Atmosphere (MiMA) capable of spontaneously generating a Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the gradual establishment of the extratropical response to the QBO is explored. The period and magnitude of the QBO and the magnitude of the polar Holton-Tan (HT) relationship is simulated in a free-running configuration of MiMA, comparable to that in state-of-the-art climate models. In order to isolate mechanisms whereby the QBO influences variability outside of the tropical atmosphere, a series of branch experiments are performed with nudged QBO winds. When easterly QBO winds maximized around 30 hPa are relaxed, an Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence dipole quickly forms in the extratropical middle stratosphere as a direct response to the tropical meridional circulation, in contrast to the HT mechanism which is associated with wave propagation near the zero wind line. This meridional circulation response to the relaxed QBO winds develops within the first 10 days in seasonally-varying and fixed-seasonal experiments. No detectable changes in upward propagation of waves in the midlatitude lowermost stratosphere are evident for at least 20 days after branching, with the first changes only evident after 20 days in perpetual midwinter and season-varying runs, but after 40 days in perpetual November runs. The polar vortex begins to respond around the 20th day, and subsequently a near-surface response in the Atlantic sector forms in mid-to-late winter runs. These results suggest that the maximum near-surface response observed in mid-to-late winter is not simply due to a random seasonal synchronization of the QBO phase, but also due to the long (short) lag of the surface response to a QBO relaxation in early (mid-to-late) winter.

scholarly journals Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lesley J. Gray ◽  
James A. Anstey ◽  
Yoshio Kawatani ◽  
Hua Lu ◽  
Scott Osprey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Tropical Precipitation ◽  
The North ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract. Teleconnections between the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Northern Hemisphere zonally-averaged zonal winds, mean sea level pressure (mslp) and tropical precipitation are explored using regression analysis. A novel technique is introduced to separate responses associated with the stratospheric polar vortex from other underlying mechanisms. A previously reported mslp response in January, with a pattern that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) under QBO westerly conditions, is confirmed and found to be primarily associated with a QBO modulation of the stratospheric polar vortex. This mid-winter response is relatively insensitive to the exact height of the maximum QBO westerlies and a maximum response occurs with westerlies over a relatively deep range between 10–70 hPa. Two additional mslp responses are reported, in early winter (December) and late winter (February/March). In contrast to the January response the early and late winter responses show maximum sensitivity to the QBO winds at ~ 20 hPa and ~ 70 hPa but are relatively insensitive to the QBO winds in between (~ 50 hPa). The late winter response is centred over the North Pacific and is associated with QBO influence from the lowermost stratosphere at tropical/subtropical latitudes. The early winter response consists of anomalies over both the North Pacific and Europe, but the mechanism is unclear and requires further investigation. QBO anomalies are found in tropical precipitation amounts and a southward shift of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone under westerly QBO conditions is also evident.

scholarly journals Solar and QBO Influences on the Timing of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings

2004 ◽  
Vol 61 (23) ◽  
pp. 2777-2796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lesley J. Gray ◽  
Simon Crooks ◽  
Charlotte Pascoe ◽  
Sarah Sparrow ◽  
Michael Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Model Experiments ◽  
Zonal Winds ◽  
Stratospheric Sudden Warmings ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract The interaction of the 11-yr solar cycle (SC) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and their influence on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar vortex are studied using idealized model experiments and ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). In the model experiments, the sensitivity of the NH polar vortex to imposed easterlies at equatorial/subtropical latitudes over various height ranges is tested to explore the possible influence from zonal wind anomalies associated with the QBO and the 11-yr SC in those regions. The experiments show that the timing of the modeled stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is sensitive to the imposed easterlies at the equator/subtropics. When easterlies are imposed in the equatorial or subtropical upper stratosphere, the onset of the SSWs is earlier. A mechanism is proposed in which zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial/subtropical upper stratosphere associated with the QBO and 11-yr SC either reinforce each other or cancel each other out. When they reinforce, as in Smin–QBO-east (Smin/E) and Smax–QBO-west (Smax/W), it is suggested that the resulting anomaly is large enough to influence the development of the Aleutian high and hence the time of onset of the SSWs. Although highly speculative, this mechanism may help to understand the puzzling observations that major warmings often occur in Smax/W years even though there is no strong waveguide provided by the QBO winds in the lower equatorial stratosphere. The ERA-40 data are used to investigate the QBO and solar signals and to determine whether the observations support the proposed mechanism. Composites of ERA-40 zonally averaged zonal winds based on the QBO (E/W), the SC (min/max), and both (Smin/E, Smin/W, Smax/E, Smax/W) are examined, with emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere winter vortex evolution. The major findings are that QBO/E years are more disturbed than QBO/W years, primarily during early winter. Sudden warmings in Smax years tend to occur later than in Smin years. Midwinter warmings are more likely during Smin/E and Smax/W years, although the latter result is only barely statistically significant at the 75% level. The data show some support for the proposed mechanism, but many more years are required before it can be fully tested.

The Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Troposphere in Winter in a Hierarchy of Models. Part II: Perpetual Winter WACCM Runs

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (9) ◽  
pp. 2026-2041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Thermal Wind ◽  
The North ◽  
Tropical Deep Convection ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) are used to understand the influence of the stratospheric tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the troposphere. The zonally symmetric circulation in thermal wind balance with the QBO affects high-frequency eddies throughout the extratropical troposphere. The influence of the QBO is strongest and most robust in the North Pacific near the jet exit region, in agreement with observations. Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex does not appear to explain the effect of the QBO in the troposphere in the model, although it does contribute to the response in the North Atlantic. Anomalies in tropical deep convection associated with the QBO appear to damp, rather than drive, the effect of the QBO in the extratropical troposphere. Rather, the crucial mechanism whereby the QBO modulates the extratropical troposphere appears to be the interaction of tropospheric transient waves with the axisymmetric circulation in thermal wind balance with the QBO. The response to QBO winds of realistic amplitude is stronger for perpetual February radiative conditions and sea surface temperatures than perpetual January conditions, consistent with the observed response in reanalysis data, in a coupled seasonal WACCM integration, and in dry model experiments described in Part I.

Tropospheric Precursors of Anomalous Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortices

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 3282-3299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann ◽  
Fabrizio Sassi
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Regional extratropical tropospheric variability in the North Pacific and eastern Europe is well correlated with variability in the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in both the ECMWF reanalysis record and in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. To explain this correlation, the link between stratospheric vertical Eliassen–Palm flux variability and tropospheric variability is analyzed. Simple reasoning shows that variability in the North Pacific and eastern Europe can deepen or flatten the wintertime tropospheric stationary waves, and in particular its wavenumber-1 and -2 components, thus providing a physical explanation for the correlation between these regions and vortex weakening. These two pathways begin to weaken the upper stratospheric vortex nearly immediately, with a peak influence apparent after a lag of some 20 days. The influence then appears to propagate downward in time, as expected from wave–mean flow interaction theory. These patterns are influenced by ENSO and October Eurasian snow cover. Perturbations in the vortex induced by the two regions add linearly. These two patterns and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are linearly related to 40% of polar vortex variability during winter in the reanalysis record.

scholarly journals Snow–(N)AO Teleconnection and Its Modulation by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (24) ◽  
pp. 10211-10235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Peings ◽  
H. Douville ◽  
J. Colin ◽  
D. Saint Martin ◽  
Gudrun Magnusdottir
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Destructive Interference ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation Models ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

This study explores the wintertime extratropical atmospheric response to Siberian snow anomalies in fall, using observations and two distinct atmospheric general circulation models. The role of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in modulating this response is discussed by differentiating easterly and westerly QBO years. The remote influence of Siberian snow anomalies is found to be weak in the models, especially in the stratosphere where the “Holton–Tan” effect of the QBO dominates the simulated snow influence on the polar vortex. At the surface, discrepancies between composite analyses from observations and model results question the causal relationship between snow and the atmospheric circulation, suggesting that the atmosphere might have driven snow anomalies rather than the other way around. When both forcings are combined, the simulations suggest destructive interference between the response to positive snow anomalies and easterly QBO (and vice versa), at odds with the hypothesis that the snow–North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation [(N)AO] teleconnection in recent decades has been promoted by the QBO. Although model limitations in capturing the relationship exist, altogether these results suggest that the snow–(N)AO teleconnection may be a stochastic artifact rather than a genuine atmospheric response to snow-cover variability. This study adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that climate models do not capture a robust and stationary snow–(N)AO relationship. It also highlights the need for extending observations and/or improving models to progress on this matter.

scholarly journals Seasonal dependence of stratospheric temperature variations

1995 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. P. Kane
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
North Pole ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
The North ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Seasonal Dependence

Abstract. Stratospheric temperatures show distinct trends, not necessarily monotonically upward or downward. At the North Pole, trends were large only during winter and spring and were different for different months; downward for November, December, mixed for January and upward for February, March and April. For the 10°-90°N belt, the trends were variable, viz., downward during 1971-1975, upward during 1975-1978 and downward again from 1978 onwards up to date, opposite to the upward trend of ground temperature in the Northern hemisphere in recent years. Twelve-monthly running averages revealed strong QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation). For the North Pole, the QBO showed colder (lower) temperatures during 50-mb wind QBO westerly phase maxima. For the 10°-90°N belt, the QBO was similar for 30 mb and 50 mb but the QBO phases did not match well with 50-mb wind QBO phases.

scholarly journals Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 8227-8247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lesley J. Gray ◽  
James A. Anstey ◽  
Yoshio Kawatani ◽  
Hua Lu ◽  
Scott Osprey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Zonal Winds ◽  
Orthogonal Function ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract. Teleconnections between the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Northern Hemisphere zonally averaged zonal winds, mean sea level pressure (mslp) and tropical precipitation are explored. The standard approach that defines the QBO using the equatorial zonal winds at a single pressure level is compared with the empirical orthogonal function approach that characterizes the vertical profile of the equatorial winds. Results are interpreted in terms of three potential routes of influence, referred to as the tropical, subtropical and polar routes. A novel technique is introduced to separate responses via the polar route that are associated with the stratospheric polar vortex, from the other two routes. A previously reported mslp response in January, with a pattern that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation under QBO westerly conditions, is confirmed and found to be primarily associated with a QBO modulation of the stratospheric polar vortex. This mid-winter response is relatively insensitive to the exact height of the maximum QBO westerlies and a maximum positive response occurs with westerlies over a relatively deep range between 10 and 70 hPa. Two additional mslp responses are reported, in early winter (December) and late winter (February/March). In contrast to the January response the early and late winter responses show maximum sensitivity to the QBO winds at ∼ 20 and ∼ 70 hPa respectively, but are relatively insensitive to the QBO winds in between (∼ 50 hPa). The late winter response is centred over the North Pacific and is associated with QBO influence from the lowermost stratosphere at tropical/subtropical latitudes in the Pacific sector. The early winter response consists of anomalies over both the North Pacific and Europe, but the mechanism for this response is unclear. Increased precipitation occurs over the tropical western Pacific under westerly QBO conditions, particularly during boreal summer, with maximum sensitivity to the QBO winds at 70 hPa. The band of precipitation across the Pacific associated with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts southward under QBO westerly conditions. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based analysis suggests that this ITCZ precipitation response may be particularly sensitive to the vertical wind shear in the vicinity of 70 hPa and hence the tropical tropopause temperatures.

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