Stable water isotope signals in tropical ice clouds in the West African monsoon simulated with a regional convection-permitting model

Tropical ice clouds have an important influence on the Earth’s radiative balance. They often form as a result of tropical deep convection, which strongly affects the water budget of the tropical tropopause layer. Ice cloud formation involves complex interactions on various scales, which are not fully understood yet and lead to large uncertainties in climate predictions. In this study, we investigate the formation of tropical ice clouds related to deep convection in the West African monsoon, using stable water isotopes as tracers of moist atmospheric processes. We perform simulations using the regional isotope-enabled model COSMOiso with different resolutions and treatments of convection for the period of June–July 2016. First, we evaluate the ability of our simulations to represent the isotopic composition of monthly precipitation through comparison with GNIP observations, and the precipitation characteristics related to the monsoon evolution and convective storms based on insights from the DACCIWA field campaign in 2016. Next, a case study of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) explores the isotope signatures of tropical deep convection in atmospheric water vapour and ice. Convective updrafts within the MCS inject enriched ice into the upper troposphere leading to depletion of vapour within these updrafts due to the preferential condensation and deposition of heavy isotopes. Water vapour in downdrafts within the same MCS are enriched by non-fractionating sublimation of ice. In contrast to ice within the MCS core regions, ice in widespread cirrus shields is isotopically in approximate equilibrium with the ambient vapour, which is consistent with in situ formation of ice. These findings from the case study are supported by a statistical evaluation of isotope signals in the West African monsoon ice clouds. The following five key processes related to tropical ice clouds can be distinguished based on their characteristic isotope signatures: (1) convective lofting of enriched ice into the upper troposphere, (2) cirrus clouds that form in situ from ambient vapour under equilibrium fractionation, (3) sedimentation and sublimation of ice in the mixed-phase cloud layer in the vicinity of convective systems and underneath cirrus shields, (4) sublimation of ice in convective downdrafts that enriches the environmental vapour, and (5) the freezing of liquid water in the mixed-phase cloud layer at the base of convective updrafts. Importantly, the results show that convective systems strongly modulate the humidity budget and the isotopic composition of the lower tropical tropopause layer. They contribute to about 40 % of the total water and 60 % of HDO in the 175–125 hPa layer in the African monsoon region according to estimates based on our model simulations. Overall, this study demonstrates that isotopes can serve as useful tracers to disentangle the role of different processes in the Earth’s water cycle, including convective transport, the formation of ice clouds, and their impact on the tropical tropopause layer.

The role of random vorticity stretching in tropical depression genesis

Tropical deep convection plays a key role in the tropical depression stage of tropical cyclogenesis by aggregating vorticity, but no existing theory can depict such a stochastic vorticity aggregation process. A vorticity probability distribution function (PDF) is proposed as a tool to predict the horizontal structure and wind speed of the tropical depression. The reason lies in the tendency for a vortex to adjust to an axisymmetric and monotonic vorticity structure. Assuming deep convection as independent and uniformly distributed vortex tube stretching events in the low-mid troposphere, repetitive vortex tube stretching will make the air column area shrink many times and significantly increase vorticity. A theory of the vorticity PDF is established by modelling the random stretching process as a Markov chain. The PDF turns out to be a weighted Poisson distribution, in good agreement with a randomly-forced divergent barotropic model (weak temperature gradient model), and in rough agreement with a cloud-permitting simulation. The result shows that a stronger and sparser deep convective mode tends to produce more high vorticity air columns, which leads to a more compact major vortex with a higher maximum wind. Based on the vorticity PDF theory, a parameterization of the eddy acceleration effect on the tangential flow is proposed.

Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska

Convective storms can cause economic damage and harm to humans by producing flash floods, lightning and severe weather. While organized convection is well studied in the tropics and mid-latitudes, few studies have focused on the physics and climate change impacts of pan-Arctic convective systems. Using a convection-permitting model we showed in a predecessor study that organized convective storm frequency might triple by the end of the century in Alaska assuming a high emission scenario. The present study assesses the reasons for this rapid increase in organized convection by investigating dynamic and thermodynamic changes within future storms and their environments, in light of canonical existing theories for mid-latitude and tropical deep convection. In a future climate, more moisture originates from Arctic marine basins increasing relative humidity over Alaska due to the loss of sea ice, which is in sharp contrast to lower-latitude land regions that are expected to become drier. This increase in relative humidity favors the onset of organized convection through more unstable thermodynamic environments, increased low-level buoyancy, and weaker downdrafts. Our confidence in these results is increased by showing that these changes can be analytically derived from basic physical laws. This suggests that organized thunderstorms might become more frequent in other pan-Arctic continental regions highlighting the uniqueness and vulnerability of these regions to climate change.

Convective self–aggregation in a mean flow

Convective self-aggregation is an atmospheric phenomenon found in numerical simulations in a radiative convective equilibrium framework of which configuration captures the main characteristics of the real-world convection in the deep tropics. As tropical deep convection is typically embedded in a large-scale flow, we impose a background mean wind flow on convection-permitting simulations through the surface flux calculation. The simulations show that with imposing mean flow, the organized convective system propagates in the direction of the flow but slows down compared to what pure advection would suggest, and eventually becomes stationary relative to the surface after 15 simulation days. The termination of the propagation arises from momentum flux, which acts as a drag on the near-surface horizontal wind. In contrast, the thermodynamic response through the wind-induced surface heat exchange feedback is a relatively small effect, which slightly retards (by about 15 %) the convection relative to the mean wind.

Evaluation of Clouds in the E3SM Atmosphere Model with Satellite Simulators

<div> <div> <div> <div> <div> <div>This study systematically evaluates clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version one (EAMv1) against satellite cloud observations. The simulator package, COSP, is used to facilitate a meaningful “apples-to-apples” comparison between model and observation by considering the different definitions of geophysical quantities among models and observations and the limitations/features of the observing process. EAMv1 is configured at two horizontal resolutions (1<span>º</span> and 0.25<span>º</span>) and one vertical resolution of 72 layers for different scientific applications. To provide a more complete picture of the model performance in simulating clouds and insights into modeled cloud biases, the evaluation is performed by utilizing unique features of individual instrument contained in COSP in observing different aspects of clouds.</div> <div> </div> <div>Both low (1deg) and high (0.25deg) resolution EAMv1 configurations generally underestimat clouds in low and midlatitudes and overestimate clouds in the Arctic although the error is smaller in the high-resolution model. The underestimate of clouds is due to the underestimate of optically thin to intermediate clouds, as EAMv1 generally overestimates optically intermediate to thick clouds. Other model errors include the largely under-predicted marine stratocumulus along the coasts and high clouds over the tropical deep convection regions. The underestimate of thin clouds results in too much LW radiation being emitted to space and too little SW radiation being reflected back to space while the overestimate of optically intermediate and thick clouds leads to too little LW radiation being emitted to space and too much SW radiation being reflected back to space. EAMv1 shows better skill in reproducing the observed distribution of clouds and their properties and has smaller radiatively relevant errors in the distribution of clouds than most of the CFMIP1 and CFMIP2 models. It produces more supercooled liquid cloud fraction than CAM5 and most CMIP5 models primarily due to a new ice nucleation scheme and secondarily due to a reduction of the ice deposition growth rate.</div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div>

Natural and anthropogenic sources of bromoform and dibromomethane in the oceanographic and biogeochemical regime of the subtropical North East Atlantic

Transport of air masses from the subtropics, enriched in trace gases from the oceans, coasts and islands, towards lower latitudes under the trade inversion and uplift to the stratosphere in tropical deep convection.

Tropical Deep Convection Impact on Southern Winter Stationary Waves and Its Modulation by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

The impact of tropical deep convection on southern winter stationary waves and its modulation by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have been investigated in a long (210 year) climate model simulation and in ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period 1979–2018. Model results reveal that tropical deep convection over the region of its climatological maximum modulates high-latitude stationary planetary waves in the southern winter hemisphere, corroborating the dominant role of tropical thermal forcing in the generation of these waves. In the tropics, deep convection enhancement leads to wavenumber-1 eddy anomalies that reinforce the climatological Rossby–Kelvin wave couplet. The Rossby wave propagates toward the extratropical southern winter hemisphere and upward through the winter stratosphere reinforcing wavenumber-1 climatological eddies. As a consequence, stronger tropical deep convection is related to greater upward wave propagation and, consequently, to a stronger Brewer–Dobson circulation and a warmer polar winter stratosphere. This linkage between tropical deep convection and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter polar vortex is also found in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, model results indicate that the enhancement of deep convection observed during the easterly phase of the QBO (E-QBO) gives rise to a similar modulation of the southern winter extratropical stratosphere, which suggests that the QBO modulation of convection plays a fundamental role in the transmission of the QBO signature to the southern stratosphere during the austral winter, revealing a new pathway for the QBO–SH polar vortex connection. ERA-Interim corroborates a QBO modulation of deep convection; however, the shorter data record does not allow us to assess its possible impact on the SH polar vortex.

DYAMOND: the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains

A review of the experimental protocol and motivation for DYAMOND, the first intercomparison project of global storm-resolving models, is presented. Nine models submitted simulation output for a 40-day (1 August–10 September 2016) intercomparison period. Eight of these employed a tiling of the sphere that was uniformly less than 5 km. By resolving the transient dynamics of convective storms in the tropics, global storm-resolving models remove the need to parameterize tropical deep convection, providing a fundamentally more sound representation of the climate system and a more natural link to commensurately high-resolution data from satellite-borne sensors. The models and some basic characteristics of their output are described in more detail, as is the availability and planned use of this output for future scientific study. Tropically and zonally averaged energy budgets, precipitable water distributions, and precipitation from the model ensemble are evaluated, as is their representation of tropical cyclones and the predictability of column water vapor, the latter being important for tropical weather.

Probing the Response of Tropical Deep Convection to Aerosol Perturbations Using Idealized Cloud-Resolving Simulations with Parameterized Large-Scale Dynamics

A framework is introduced to investigate the indirect effect of aerosol loading on tropical deep convection using three-dimensional limited-domain idealized cloud-system-resolving model simulations coupled with large-scale dynamics over fixed sea surface temperature. The large-scale circulation is parameterized using the spectral weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation that utilizes the dominant balance between adiabatic cooling and diabatic heating in the tropics. The aerosol loading effect is examined by varying the number of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) available to form cloud droplets in the two-moment bulk microphysics scheme over a wide range of environments from 30 to 5000 cm−3. The radiative heating is held at a constant prescribed rate in order to isolate the microphysical effects. Analyses are performed over the period after equilibrium is achieved between convection and the large-scale environment. Mean precipitation is found to decrease modestly and monotonically when the aerosol number concentration increases as convection gets weaker, despite the increase in cloud liquid water in the warm-rain region and ice crystals aloft. This reduction is traced down to the reduction in surface enthalpy fluxes as an energy source to the atmospheric column induced by the coupling of the large-scale motion, though the gross moist stability remains constant. Increasing CCN concentration leads to 1) a cooler free troposphere because of a reduction in the diabatic heating and 2) a warmer boundary layer because of suppressed evaporative cooling. This dipole temperature structure is associated with anomalously descending large-scale vertical motion above the boundary layer and ascending motion at lower levels. Sensitivity tests suggest that changes in convection and mean precipitation are unlikely to be caused by the impact of aerosols on cloud droplets and microphysical properties but rather by accounting for the feedback from convective adjustment with the large-scale dynamics. Furthermore, a simple scaling argument is derived based on the vertically integrated moist static energy budget, which enables estimation of changes in precipitation given known changes in surfaces enthalpy fluxes and the constant gross moist stability. The impact on cloud hydrometeors and microphysical properties is also examined, and it is consistent with the macrophysical picture.