scholarly journals Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Tonini ◽  
Pio Di Manna ◽  
Stefano Lorito ◽  
Jacopo Selva ◽  
Manuela Volpe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Evacuation Planning ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Inundation Maps ◽  
Coastal Risk ◽  
Run Up

Inundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model. Based on a given level of acceptable risk, Italian authorities in charge for this task recommended to consider, as design hazard intensity, the average return period of 2500 years and the 84th percentile of the hazard model uncertainty. An available, regional-scale tsunami hazard model was used that covers the entire Italian coastline. Safety factors based on analysis of run-up variability and an empirical coastal dissipation law on a digital terrain model (DTM) were applied to convert the regional hazard into the design run-up and the corresponding evacuation maps with a GIS-based approach. Since the regional hazard cannot fully capture the local-scale variability, this simplified and conservative approach is considered a viable and feasible practice to inform local coastal risk management in the absence of high-resolution hazard models. The present work is a first attempt to quantify the uncertainty stemming from such procedure. We compare the GIS-based inundation maps informed by a regional model with those obtained from a local high-resolution hazard model. Two locations on the coast of eastern Sicily were considered, and the local hazard was addressed with the same seismic model as the regional one, but using a higher-resolution DTM and massive numerical inundation calculations with the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA nonlinear shallow water code. This study shows that the GIS-based inundation maps used for planning deal conservatively with potential hazard underestimation at the local scale, stemming from typically unmodeled uncertainties in the numerical source and tsunami evolution models. The GIS-based maps used for planning fall within the estimated “error-bar” due to such uncertainties. The analysis also demonstrates the need to develop local assessments to serve very specific risk mitigation actions to reduce the uncertainty. More in general, the presented case-studies highlight the importance to explore ways of dealing with uncertainty hidden within the high-resolution numerical inundation models, e.g., related to the crude parameterization of the bottom friction, or the inaccuracy of the DTM.

scholarly journals Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 2127-2161 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Álvarez-Gómez ◽  
Í. Aniel-Quiroga ◽  
O. Q. Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez ◽  
J. Larreynaga ◽  
M. González ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Central America ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Eastern Area ◽  
Run Up ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has approximately a length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there have been 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and hundreds of victims. The hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached from both Probabilistic and Deterministic Methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold, on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps and from the elevation in the near-shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differences – finite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the Linear and Non-linear Shallow Water Equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake generated tsunami scenarios. In the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results obtained with the high resolution numerical modelling, being a good and fast approximation to obtain preliminary tsunami hazard estimations. In Acajutla and La Libertad, both important tourism centres being actively developed, flooding depths between 2 and 4 m are frequent, accompanied with high and very high person instability hazard. Inside the Gulf of Fonseca the impact of the waves is almost negligible.

scholarly journals Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2927-2939 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Álvarez-Gómez ◽  
Í. Aniel-Quiroga ◽  
O. Q. Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez ◽  
J. Larreynaga ◽  
M. González ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Central America ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Eastern Area ◽  
Run Up ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has an approximate length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there were 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and resulting in hundreds of victims. Hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached through both probabilistic and deterministic methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold: on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high-resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps, and from the elevation in the near shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific Basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differences–finite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the linear and non-linear shallow water equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake-generated tsunami scenarios. Our results show that at the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results obtained with the high-resolution numerical modelling, being a good and fast approximation to obtain preliminary tsunami hazard estimations. In Acajutla and La Libertad, both important tourism centres being actively developed, flooding depths between 2 and 4 m are frequent, accompanied with high and very high person instability hazard. Inside the Gulf of Fonseca the impact of the waves is almost negligible.

Coastal risk management: How to motivate individual economic decisions to lower flood risk?

2011 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 164-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana Filatova ◽  
Jan P.M. Mulder ◽  
Anne van der Veen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Economic Decisions ◽  
Coastal Risk

COMBINED HRLEED AND STM INVESTIGATIONS ON THE INITIAL STAGES OF Cu HETEROEPITAXY Ru(0001)

1997 ◽  
Vol 04 (06) ◽  
pp. 1167-1171 ◽  
Author(s):  
CH. AMMER ◽  
K. MEINEL ◽  
H. WOLTER ◽  
A. BECKMANN ◽  
H. NEDDERMEYER
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Electron Diffraction ◽  
Strain Relaxation ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Low Energy ◽  
Scanning Tunneling ◽  
Tunneling Microscopy ◽  
Low Energy Electron Diffraction ◽  
Layer Structures ◽  
Low Energy Electron

Recent scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) observations revealed different layer structures in the heteroepitaxial Cu/Ru(0001) system with increasing film thickness attributed to various stages of strain relaxation. High-resolution low-energy electron diffraction (HRLEED) analysis permits one to derive more exactly both lattice periodicities and lattice rotations. Furthermore, the representative character of local STM results can be proved. However, STM measurements are needed to identify and to assign the satellite spots to coexistent different superstructures which are superposed incoherently in the diffraction pattern. Generally, the integral LEED results confirm the crystallographic data obtained by STM in a local scale.

scholarly journals Impact of Management Regime and Regime Change on Gravel Barrier Response to a Major Storm Surge

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
James A. Pollard ◽  
Elizabeth K. Christie ◽  
Susan M. Brooks ◽  
Tom Spencer
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Natural State ◽  
Hydrodynamic Conditions ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
Management Regime ◽  
Coastal Defense ◽  
Management Regimes ◽  
Coastal Risk ◽  
The Impact

Gravel barriers represent physiographic, hydrographic, sedimentary, and ecological boundaries between inshore and open marine offshore environments, where they provide numerous important functions. The morphosedimentary features of gravel barriers (e.g., steep, energy reflective form) have led to their characterization as effective coastal defense features during extreme hydrodynamic conditions. Consequently, gravel barriers have often been intensively managed to enhance coastal defense functions. The Blakeney Point Barrier System (BPBS), U.K., is one such example, which offers the opportunity to investigate the impact of alternative management regimes under extreme hydrodynamic conditions. The BPBS was actively re-profiled along its eastern section from the 1950s to the winter of 2005, whilst undergoing no active intervention along its western section. Combining an analysis of remotely sensed elevation datasets with numerical storm surge modeling, this paper finds that interventionist management introduces systemic differences in barrier morphological characteristics. Overly steepened barrier sections experience greater wave run-up extents during storm surge conditions, leading to more extreme morphological changes and landward barrier retreat. Furthermore, while high, steep barriers can be highly effective at preventing landward flooding, in cases where overwashing does occur, the resultant landward overtopping volume is typically higher than would be the case for a relatively lower crested barrier with a lower angled seaward slope. There is a growing preference within coastal risk management for less interventionist management regimes, incorporating natural processes. However, restoring natural processes does not immediately or inevitably result in a reduction in coastal risk. This paper contributes practical insights regarding the time taken for a previously managed barrier to relax to a more natural state, intermediary morphological states, and associated landward water flows during extreme events, all of which should be considered if gravel barriers are to be usefully integrated into broader risk management strategies.

scholarly journals An objective and efficient method for estimating probabilistic coastal inundation hazards

2019 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 1105-1130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Yang ◽  
Vladimir Paramygin ◽  
Y. Peter Sheng
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Highly Efficient ◽  
Inundation Maps ◽  
Flood Elevation

Abstract The joint probability method (JPM) is the traditional way to determine the base flood elevation due to storm surge, and it usually requires simulation of storm surge response from tens of thousands of synthetic storms. The simulated storm surge is combined with probabilistic storm rates to create flood maps with various return periods. However, the map production requires enormous computational cost if state-of-the-art hydrodynamic models with high-resolution numerical grids are used; hence, optimal sampling (JPM-OS) with a small number of (~ 100–200) optimal (representative) storms is preferred. This paper presents a significantly improved JPM-OS, where a small number of optimal storms are objectively selected, and simulated storm surge responses of tens of thousands of storms are accurately interpolated from those for the optimal storms using a highly efficient kriging surrogate model. This study focuses on Southwest Florida and considers ~ 150 optimal storms that are selected based on simulations using either the low fidelity (with low resolution and simple physics) SLOSH model or the high fidelity (with high resolution and comprehensive physics) CH3D model. Surge responses to the optimal storms are simulated using both SLOSH and CH3D, and the flood elevations are calculated using JPM-OS with highly efficient kriging interpolations. For verification, the probabilistic inundation maps are compared to those obtained by the traditional JPM and variations of JPM-OS that employ different interpolation schemes, and computed probabilistic water levels are compared to those calculated by historical storm methods. The inundation maps obtained with the JPM-OS differ less than 10% from those obtained with JPM for 20,625 storms, with only 4% of the computational time.

scholarly journals A high resolution multimedia environmental monitoring project at regional and local scale: the Campania region (southern Italy) case study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedetto De Vivo ◽  
Stefano Albanese ◽  
Annamaria Lima ◽  
Domenico Cicchella ◽  
David Hope ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Environmental Monitoring ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Campania Region

scholarly journals Case study: mapping the tsunami-hazard zone in the Pasir Jambak sub-district, in Padang, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 331 ◽  
pp. 04006
Author(s):  
Leli Honesti ◽  
Meli Muchlian
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Tsunami Inundation ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
Nested Grid ◽  
Inundation Map ◽  
Run Up

A tsunami hazard is an adverse event that causes damage to properties and loss of life. The problem in assessing a tsunami risk zone for a small area is significant, as available tsunami inundation zone data does not give detailed information for tsunami inundation and run-up in every nested grid. Hence, this study aims to establish a tsunami risk map in the Pasir Jambak sub-district, Padang, Indonesia. The map was carried out in every nested grid point of the area and on a large scale (1:5,000). The TUNAMI N3 program was used for the simulation of the tsunami inundation. A tsunami assessment was made through simulations in nine scenarios of fault parameter data for Sipora block earthquakes. The result of the study provides a tsunami inundation map. Furthermore, this tsunami inundation map can be used for communities, local authorities, government, and others for many studies, and decision-makers can come up with mitigation plans for a small study area.

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