scholarly journals Kalman Filter Photovoltaic Power Prediction Model Based on Forecasting Experience

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Yang ◽  
Tianyang Yu ◽  
Weiguang Zhao ◽  
Xianhui Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Photoelectric Conversion ◽  
Filter Model ◽  
Conversion Model ◽  
Model Based

A Kalman filter photovoltaic (PV) power prediction model based on forecasting experience is proposed to solve the problem that the accuracy of the prediction method based on historical experience is reduced under anomalous situations. This study uses the hourly solar irradiance forecasting model, numerical weather prediction (NWP) data, and the photoelectric conversion model to calculate the ground irradiance and PV power generation, which are used as the forecasting experience data. The dynamic equation of the Kalman filter model is obtained by fitting the forecasting data to make the prediction model with the future situation information properties while solving the modeling difficulties caused by the transcendental equation characteristic of the photoelectric conversion model. In the iterative process of the Kalman filter algorithm, the measured power is used to correct the prediction error and significantly limit the error variability so as to realize the ultra-short-term accurate prediction of PV power and ultimately improve the management of PV energy storage power stations. The comparative analysis through DKASC data simulation verifies that the results show that the proposed model is effective and can achieve better results in predictive accuracy.

scholarly journals A Method of Rescue Flight Path Plan Correction Based on the Fusion of Predicted Low-altitude Wind Data

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 479-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Zhang ◽  
Shuo Wang ◽  
Hui Yu
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Unscented Kalman Filter ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Flight Path ◽  
Wind Data ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Low Altitude

This study proposes a low-altitude wind prediction model for correcting the flight path plans of low-altitude aircraft. To solve large errors in numerical weather prediction (NWP) data and the inapplicability of high-altitude meteorological data to low altitude conditions, the model fuses the low-altitude lattice prediction data and the observation data of a specified ground international exchange station through the unscented Kalman filter (UKF)-based NWP interpretation technology to acquire the predicted low-altitude wind data. Subsequently, the model corrects the arrival times at the route points by combining the performance parameters of the aircraft according to the principle of velocity vector composition. Simulation experiment shows that the RMSEs of wind speed and direction acquired with the UKF prediction method are reduced by 12.88% and 17.50%, respectively, compared with the values obtained with the traditional Kalman filter prediction method. The proposed prediction model thus improves the accuracy of flight path planning in terms of time and space.

E4DVar: Coupling an Ensemble Kalman Filter with Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation in a Limited-Area Weather Prediction Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (2) ◽  
pp. 587-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng Zhang ◽  
Fuqing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Hybrid Data Assimilation

A hybrid data assimilation approach that couples the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and four-dimensional variational (4DVar) methods is implemented for the first time in a limited-area weather prediction model. In this coupled system, denoted E4DVar, the EnKF and 4DVar systems run in parallel while feeding into each other. The multivariate, flow-dependent background error covariance estimated from the EnKF ensemble is used in the 4DVar minimization and the ensemble mean in the EnKF analysis is replaced by the 4DVar analysis, while updating the analysis perturbations for the next cycle of ensemble forecasts with the EnKF. Therefore, the E4DVar can obtain flow-dependent information from both the explicit covariance matrix derived from ensemble forecasts, as well as implicitly from the 4DVar trajectory. The performance of an E4DVar system is compared with the uncoupled 4DVar and EnKF for a limited-area model by assimilating various conventional observations over the contiguous United States for June 2003. After verifying the forecasts from each analysis against standard sounding observations, it is found that the E4DVar substantially outperforms both the EnKF and 4DVar during this active summer month, which featured several episodes of severe convective weather. On average, the forecasts produced from E4DVar analyses have considerably smaller errors than both of the stand-alone EnKF and 4DVar systems for forecast lead times up to 60 h.

scholarly journals A Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Model Based on an FOS-ELM Algorithm

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jidong Wang ◽  
Ran Ran ◽  
Yue Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Photovoltaic Power

scholarly journals Short-term Wind Power Prediction Model Based on Encoder-Decoder LSTM

2018 ◽  
Vol 186 ◽  
pp. 012020
Author(s):  
Kuan Lu ◽  
Wen Xue Sun ◽  
Xin Wang ◽  
Xiang Rong Meng ◽  
Yong Zhai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

Prediction and Analysis of Strawberry Moisture Content based on BP Neural Network Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671
Author(s):  
Wei Jiang ◽  
Hongmei Xu ◽  
Elnaz Akbari ◽  
Jiang Wen ◽  
Shuang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Spectral Difference ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Neural Network Prediction ◽  
Network Prediction

Background: Moisture content is one of the most important indicators for the quality of fresh strawberries. Currently, several methods are usually employed to detect the moisture content in strawberry. However, these methods are relatively simple and can only be used to detect the moisture content of single samples but not batches of samples. Besides, the integrity of the samples may be destroyed. Therefore, it is important to develop a simple and efficient prediction method for strawberry moisture to facilitate the market circulation of strawberry. Objective: This study aims to establish a novel BP neural network prediction model to predict and analyze strawberry moisture. Methods: Toyonoka and Jingyao strawberries were taken as the research objects. The hyperspectral technology, spectral difference analysis, correlation coefficient method, principal component analysis and artificial neural network technology were combined to predict the moisture content of strawberry. Results: The characteristic wavelengths were highly correlated with the strawberry moisture content. The stability and prediction effect of the BP neural network prediction model based on characteristic wavelengths are superior to those of the prediction model based on principal components, and the correlation coefficients of the calibration set for Toyonaka and Jingyao respectively reached up to 0.9532 and 0.9846 with low levels of standard deviations (0.3204 and 0.3010, respectively). Conclusion: The BP neural network prediction model of strawberry moisture has certain practicability and can provide some reference for the on-line and non-destructive detection of fruits and vegetables.

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