scholarly journals Prospective Climate Change Impacts upon Energy Prices in the 21ST Century: A Case Study in Italy

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bombelli ◽  
Soncini ◽  
Bianchi ◽  
Bocchiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Price Fluctuations

The assessment of the effect of the electricity price on energy production is important when studying the profitability and benefits of energy systems. The demand and price of electricity depends upon societal and economic development, but it is subject to a seasonal, weather-dependent variability, and possibly to long-term variation under climate change. Here, we developed a methodology to model the energy demand and electricity price in response to gross domestic product (GDP), temperatures, and random factors, usable for the purpose of cost/benefit analysis of production systems. The method was applied to the case study of the Italian electricity market, showing acceptable capacity of modelling recently observed price fluctuations. Then, we gathered climate projections until 2100 from three global climate models of the IPCC AR5, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, and we produced future scenarios of price fluctuations for two reference decades, half-century 2040–2049, and end-of-century 2090–2099. Our scenarios displayed a potential for the reduction of energy demand in winter, and an increase in summer and spring, and for the similarly-changing electricity price throughout the 21st century. We discuss the application of our model with the specific aim of the projection of future hydropower production, as controlled by climate, hydrology, demand, and price constraints, with examples from recent studies. Our results provide a tool for modelling the behaviour of energy systems based upon knowledge of external factors, usable for further investigation of energy systems, such as hydropower, and others, taking into account the key variables affecting energy production and energy price.

scholarly journals Understanding the Energy System of the Paulista Macrometropolis: first step in local action toward climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flávia Mendes de Almeida Collaço ◽  
Raiana Schirmer Soares ◽  
João Marcos Mott Pavanelli ◽  
Lira Luz Benites-Lazaro ◽  
Guilherme Massignan Berejuk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Installed Capacity

Abstract This paper analyzes the historical trends in the energy supply and demand for the Macrometrópole Paulista Energy System, as well as the existing options for harnessing the renewable energy potential of the region. The research included a case study covering the 174 municipalities that belong to the macro-metropolis to characterize the energy system from 2006 to 2017 while analyzing the CO2 emissions of the system. The results indicated that, in 2017, the Paulista macro-metropolis accounted for 73% of the total energy demand of the entire state of São Paulo. Moreover, considering the energy generated from within the administrative limits of the 174 municipalities, the macro-metropolis accounted for about 17% of the total installed capacity of the state for electricity generation. This study found that the installed capacity for electricity generation in the region can be increased by ~ 112%. There so, an understanding of the local energy systems is of utmost importance for the formulation of coherent and integrated public policies, which are necessary to cope with the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Urban Geometry Optimization to Mitigate Climate Change: Towards Energy-Efficient Buildings

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Hatem Mahmoud ◽  
Ayman Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Efficiency ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Geometry ◽  
Outdoor Spaces ◽  
The Impact

The density of building blocks and insufficient greenery in cities tend to contribute dramatically not only to increased heat stress in the built environment but also to higher energy demand for cooling. Urban planners should, therefore, be conscious of their responsibility to reduce energy usage of buildings along with improving outdoor thermal efficiency. This study examines the impact of numerous proposed urban geometry cases on the thermal efficiency of outer spaces as well as the energy consumption of adjacent buildings under various climate change scenarios as representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projections for New Aswan city in 2035. The investigation was performed at one of the most underutilized outdoor spaces on the new campus of Aswan University in New Aswan city. The potential reduction of heat stress was investigated so as to improve the thermal comfort of the investigated outdoor spaces, as well as energy savings based on the proposed strategies. Accordingly, the most appropriate scenario to be adopted to cope with the inevitable climate change was identified. The proposed scenarios were divided into four categories of parameters. In the first category, shelters partially (25–50% and 75%) covering the streets were used. The second category proposed dividing the space parallel or perpendicular to the existing buildings. The third category was a hybrid scenario of the first and second categories. In the fourth category, a green cover of grass was added. A coupling evaluation was applied utilizing ENVI-met v4.2 and Design-Builder v4.5 to measure and improve the thermal efficiency of the outdoor space and reduce the cooling energy. The results demonstrated that it is better to cover outdoor spaces with 50% of the overall area than transform outdoor spaces into canyons.

scholarly journals Mixed Regional Shifts in Conifer Productivity under 21st-Century Climate Projections in Canada’s Northeastern Boreal Forest

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 248
Author(s):  
Tyler Searls ◽  
James Steenberg ◽  
Xinbiao Zhu ◽  
Charles P.-A. Bourque ◽  
Fan-Rui Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Validation ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Acer Rubrum ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Balsam Fir ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Climate Projections

Models of forest growth and yield (G&Y) are a key component in long-term strategic forest management plans. Models leveraging the industry-standard “empirical” approach to G&Y are frequently underpinned by an assumption of historical consistency in climatic growing conditions. This assumption is problematic as forest managers look to obtain reliable growth predictions under the changing climate of the 21st century. Consequently, there is a pressing need for G&Y modelling approaches that can be more robustly applied under the influence of climate change. In this study we utilized an established forest gap model (JABOWA-3) to simulate G&Y between 2020 and 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Simulations were completed using the province’s permanent sample plot data and surface-fitted climatic datasets. Through model validation, we found simulated basal area (BA) aligned with observed BA for the major conifer species components of NL’s forests, including black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton et al.] and balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill]. Model validation was not as robust for the less abundant species components of NL (e.g., Acer rubrum L. 1753, Populus tremuloides Michx., and Picea glauca (Moench) Voss). Our simulations generally indicate that projected climatic changes may modestly increase black spruce and balsam fir productivity in the more northerly growing environments within NL. In contrast, we found productivity of these same species to only be maintained, and in some instances even decline, toward NL’s southerly extents. These generalizations are moderated by species, RCP, and geographic parameters. Growth modifiers were also prepared to render empirical G&Y projections more robust for use under periods of climate change.

scholarly journals A time-of-use based electricity price package mechanism in retail market considering consumers’ diversity

2020 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 02009
Author(s):  
Gang Luo ◽  
Yujun He ◽  
Chen Zhao ◽  
Xuan Zhang ◽  
Shaohua Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Demand Elasticity ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Retail Market ◽  
Specific Time ◽  
Optimal Price ◽  
Numerical Case Study

In the deregulated retail market, consumers should have more right of choice for paying for their energy demand. This paper focuses on the design of electricity price package mechanism in retail market considering the demand elasticity of consumers. An optimal price package mechanism is proposed to incentivize consumers for peak-clipping/valley-filling. Consumers are able to choose the appropriate one from a set of price packages, each of which consists of specific time-of-use energy price and maximum-demand price. A numerical case study has shown the usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed mechanism.

scholarly journals PROJECTION OF INCIDENT SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION IN CHINA UNDER A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W9 ◽  
pp. 187-194
Author(s):  
Y. K. Xiao ◽  
Z. M. Ji ◽  
C. S. Fu ◽  
W. T. Du ◽  
J. H. Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation

Abstract. We projected incident surface solar radiation (SSR) over China in the middle (2040–2059) and end (2080–2099) of the 21st century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario using a multi-model ensemble derived from the weighted average of seven global climate models (GCMs). The multi-model ensemble captured the contemporary (1979–2005) spatial and temporal characteristics of SSR and reproduced the long-term temporal evolution of the mean annual SSR in China. However, it tended to overestimate values compared to observations due to the absence of aerosol effects in the simulations. The future changes in SSR showed increases over eastern and southern China, and decreases over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and northwest China relative to the present day. At the end of the 21st century, there were SSR increases of 9–21 W m−2 over northwest, central, and south China, and decreases of 18–30 W m−2 over the TP in June–July–August (JJA). In northeast China, SSR showed seasonal variation with increases in JJA and decreases in December–January–February. The time series of annual SSR had a decreased linear trend for the TP, and a slightly increased trend for China during 2006–2099. The results of our study suggest that solar energy resources will likely decrease in the TP under future climate change scenarios.

Complex Energy Networks Optimization: Part II — Software Application to a Case Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Ancona ◽  
M. Bianchi ◽  
L. Branchini ◽  
A. De Pascale ◽  
F. Melino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Production ◽  
Internal Combustion Engines ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Distribution Networks ◽  
Optimal Scheduling ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Complex Energy ◽  
Energy Networks ◽  
Energy Network

Abstract In order to increase the exploitation of the renewable energy sources, the diffusion of the distributed generation systems is grown, leading to an increase in the complexity of the electrical, thermal, cooling and fuel energy distribution networks. With the main purpose of improving the overall energy conversion efficiency and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions associated to fossil fuel based production systems, the design and the management of these complex energy grids play a key role. In this context, an in-house developed software, called COMBO, presented and validated in the Part I of this study, has been applied to a case study in order to define the optimal scheduling of each generation system connected to a complex energy network. The software is based on a non-heuristic technique which considers all the possible combination of solutions, elaborating the optimal scheduling for each energy system by minimizing an objective function based on the evaluation of the total energy production cost and energy systems environmental impact. In particular, the software COMBO is applied to a case study represented by an existing small-scale complex energy network, with the main objective of optimizing the energy production mix and the complex energy networks yearly operation depending on the energy demand of the users. The electrical, thermal and cooling needs of the users are satisfied with a centralized energy production, by means of internal combustion engines, natural gas boilers, heat pumps, compression and absorption chillers. The optimal energy systems operation evaluated by the software COMBO will be compared to a Reference Case, representative of the current energy systems set-up, in order to highlight the environmental and economic benefits achievable with the proposed strategy.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Manashi Paul ◽  
Sijal Dangol ◽  
Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽  
Amy R. Sapkota ◽  
Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

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