scholarly journals Using a Multiclass Machine Learning Model to Predict the Outcome of Acute Ischemic Stroke Requiring Reperfusion Therapy

Diagnostics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
I-Min Chiu ◽  
Wun-Huei Zeng ◽  
Chi-Yung Cheng ◽  
Shih-Hsuan Chen ◽  
Chun-Hung Richard Lin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Outcome Prediction ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Stroke Patients ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Prediction of functional outcome in ischemic stroke patients is useful for clinical decisions. Previous studies mostly elaborate on the prediction of favorable outcomes. Miserable outcomes, which are usually defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 5–6, should be considered as well before further invasive intervention. By using a machine learning algorithm, we aimed to develop a multiclass classification model for outcome prediction in acute ischemic stroke patients requiring reperfusion therapy. This was a retrospective study performed at a stroke medical center in Taiwan. Patients with acute ischemic stroke who visited between January 2016 and December 2019 and who were candidates for reperfusion therapy were included. Clinical outcomes were classified as favorable outcome, intermediate outcome, and miserable outcome. We developed four different multiclass machine learning models (Logistic Regression, Supportive Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting) to predict clinical outcomes and compared their performance to the DRAGON score. A sample of 590 patients was included in this study. Of them, 180 (30.5%) had favorable outcomes and 152 (25.8%) had miserable outcomes. All selected machine learning models outperformed the DRAGON score on accuracy of outcome prediction (Logistic Regression: 0.70, Supportive Vector Machine: 0.67, Random Forest: 0.69, and Extreme Gradient Boosting: 0.67, vs. DRAGON: 0.51, p < 0.001). Among all selected models, Logistic Regression also had a better performance than the DRAGON score on positive predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity. Compared with the DRAGON score, the multiclass machine learning approach showed better performance on the prediction of the 3-month functional outcome of acute ischemic stroke patients requiring reperfusion therapy.

scholarly journals Machine Learning-Based Three-Month Outcome Prediction in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Single Cerebrovascular-Specialty Hospital Study in South Korea

Diagnostics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1909
Author(s):  
Dougho Park ◽  
Eunhwan Jeong ◽  
Haejong Kim ◽  
Hae Wook Pyun ◽  
Haemin Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Functional Outcome ◽  
Outcome Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Background: Functional outcomes after acute ischemic stroke are of great concern to patients and their families, as well as physicians and surgeons who make the clinical decisions. We developed machine learning (ML)-based functional outcome prediction models in acute ischemic stroke. Methods: This retrospective study used a prospective cohort database. A total of 1066 patients with acute ischemic stroke between January 2019 and March 2021 were included. Variables such as demographic factors, stroke-related factors, laboratory findings, and comorbidities were utilized at the time of admission. Five ML algorithms were applied to predict a favorable functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale 0 or 1) at 3 months after stroke onset. Results: Regularized logistic regression showed the best performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.86. Support vector machines represented the second-highest AUC of 0.85 with the highest F1-score of 0.86, and finally, all ML models applied achieved an AUC > 0.8. The National Institute of Health Stroke Scale at admission and age were consistently the top two important variables for generalized logistic regression, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting models. Conclusions: ML-based functional outcome prediction models for acute ischemic stroke were validated and proven to be readily applicable and useful.

scholarly journals Localized prediction of tissue outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients using diffusion- and perfusion-weighted MRI datasets

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0241917
Author(s):  
Malte Grosser ◽  
Susanne Gellißen ◽  
Patrick Borchert ◽  
Jan Sedlacik ◽  
Jawed Nawabi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Outcome Prediction ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Stroke Patients ◽  
Local Approach ◽  
Prediction Approach ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Background An accurate prediction of tissue outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients is of high interest for treatment decision making. To date, various machine learning models have been proposed that combine multi-parametric imaging data for this purpose. However, most of these machine learning models were trained using voxel information extracted from the whole brain, without taking differences in susceptibility to ischemia into account that exist between brain regions. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a local tissue outcome prediction approach, which makes predictions using locally trained machine learning models and thus accounts for regional differences. Material and methods Multi-parametric MRI data from 99 acute ischemic stroke patients were used for the development and evaluation of the local tissue outcome prediction approach. Diffusion (ADC) and perfusion parameter maps (CBF, CBV, MTT, Tmax) and corresponding follow-up lesion masks for each patient were registered to the MNI brain atlas. Logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models were trained employing a local approach, which makes predictions using models individually trained for each specific voxel position using the corresponding local data. A global approach, which uses a single model trained using all voxels of the brain, was used for comparison. Tissue outcome predictions resulting from the global and local RF and LR models, as well as a combined (hybrid) approach were quantitatively evaluated and compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC), the Dice coefficient, and the sensitivity and specificity metrics. Results Statistical analysis revealed the highest ROC AUC and Dice values for the hybrid approach. With 0.872 (ROC AUC; LR) and 0.353 (Dice; RF), these values were significantly higher (p < 0.01) than the values of the two other approaches. In addition, the local approach achieved the highest sensitivity of 0.448 (LR). Overall, the hybrid approach was only outperformed in sensitivity (LR) by the local approach and in specificity by both other approaches. However, in these cases the effect sizes were comparatively small. Conclusion The results of this study suggest that using locally trained machine learning models can lead to better lesion outcome prediction results compared to a single global machine learning model trained using all voxel information independent of the location in the brain.

Abstract P308: Machine Learning Based Models of the 30-Day Readmission for Stroke Patients Using Electronic Health Record Data

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Negar Darabi ◽  
Niyousha Hosseinichimeh ◽  
Anthony Noto ◽  
Ramin Zand ◽  
Vida Abedi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Stroke Patients ◽  
Electronic Health Record Data ◽  
Percutaneous Gastrostomy ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Electronic Health

Background: At a personalized level, identification of patients at higher risk of 30-day readmission and in need of special clinical attention could lower their chances of readmission. While at a system’s level, reducing hospital readmission improves the overall quality of care delivery and reduces the associated cost burden. Objective: To enhance understanding of the predictors of 30-day readmission after ischemic stroke and identify high-risk individuals. We aimed to compare the performance and the predictive power of machine learning-based methods and identify the best model. Method: The electronic health records (EHR) of acute ischemic stroke patients were extracted from two tertiary centers within the Geisinger Health System between January 1, 2015, and October 7, 2018. A total of 61 variables, including clinical variables, demographical characteristics, discharge status, and type of health insurance were used in this study. Patients were randomly split for model development (80%) and testing (20%). Random forest, gradient boosting machine, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine, and logistic regression, were developed to predict the 30-day readmission after stroke. The models were evaluated based on the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV). Results: A total of 3,184 patients with ischemic stroke (mean age: 71±13.90 years, men: 51.06%) were included in this study. From the 3,184, 301 (9.40%) were readmitted within 30-day. The best performance was obtained when XGBoost was used with ROSE-sampling. The AUC for the test set was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.64-0.78) with PPV of 0.43. The top four predictors of the 30-day readmission model were National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score above 24, insert an indwelling urinary catheter, hypercoagulable state, and percutaneous gastrostomy. Conclusions: Machine learning model can be designed to predict 30-day readmission after stroke using structured data from EHR. Among the five algorithms analyzed, XGBoost had the best performance.

Abstract WP312: Identifying Acute Ischemic Stroke by Analyzing Icd-10 Claims Data Using Machine Learning Models

Stroke ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Esenwa ◽  
Jorge Luna ◽  
Benjamin Kummer ◽  
Hojjat Salmasian ◽  
David Vawdrey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Claims Data ◽  
Administrative Claims ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Icd 10 ◽  
New Diagnosis ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Introduction: Retrospective identification of patients hospitalized with new diagnosis of acute ischemic stroke is important for administrative quality assurance, post-discharge clinical management, and stroke research. The benefit of using administrative claims data is its widespread availability, but the disadvantage is in the inability to accurately and consistently identify the clinical diagnosis of interest. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that decision tree and logistic regression models could be applied to administrative claims data coded using International Classification of Diseases, version 10 (ICD-10) to create algorithms that could accurately identify patients with acute ischemic stroke. Methods: We used hospital records from our institution to develop a gold standard list of 243 patients, continuously hospitalized with a new diagnosis of stroke from 10/1/2015 to 3/31/2016. We used 1,393 neurological patients without a diagnosis of stroke as negative controls. This list was used to train and test two machine learning methods of diagnosis and procedure codes analysis, for the purpose of ischemic stroke identification: one using classification and regression tree (CART) and another using regularized logistic regression. We trained the models using 75% of the data and performed the evaluation using the remaining 25%. Results: The CART model had a κ=0.78, sensitivity of 96%, specificity of 90%, and a positive predictive value of 99%. The regularized logistic regression model had a κ=0.73, sensitivity of 97%, specificity of 81%, and a positive predictive value of 98%. Conclusion: Both the decision tree and logistic regression machine based learning models showed very high accuracy in identifying patients with a new diagnosis of ischemic stroke, using ICD-10 code claims data, when compared to our gold standard. Applying these machine learning models to identify patients with ischemic stroke has widespread applications, especially in this period where national billing data has transitioned from ICD-9 to ICD-10 codes.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Models of Acute Kidney Injury Prediction in Acute Pancreatitis Patients

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Cheng Qu ◽  
Lin Gao ◽  
Xian-qiang Yu ◽  
Mei Wei ◽  
Guo-quan Fang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Acute Pancreatitis ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Background. Acute kidney injury (AKI) has long been recognized as a common and important complication of acute pancreatitis (AP). In the study, machine learning (ML) techniques were used to establish predictive models for AKI in AP patients during hospitalization. This is a retrospective review of prospectively collected data of AP patients admitted within one week after the onset of abdominal pain to our department from January 2014 to January 2019. Eighty patients developed AKI after admission (AKI group) and 254 patients did not (non-AKI group) in the hospital. With the provision of additional information such as demographic characteristics or laboratory data, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), classification and regression tree (CART), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were used to build models of AKI prediction and compared to the predictive performance of the classic model using logistic regression (LR). XGBoost performed best in predicting AKI with an AUC of 91.93% among the machine learning models. The AUC of logistic regression analysis was 87.28%. Present findings suggest that compared to the classical logistic regression model, machine learning models using features that can be easily obtained at admission had a better performance in predicting AKI in the AP patients.

scholarly journals Prediction of Post-Intubation Tachycardia Using Machine-Learning Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1151
Author(s):  
Hanna Kim ◽  
Young-Seob Jeong ◽  
Ah Reum Kang ◽  
Woohyun Jung ◽  
Yang Hoon Chung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Feature Sets ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Post Intubation ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Tachycardia is defined as a heart rate greater than 100 bpm for more than 1 min. Tachycardia often occurs after endotracheal intubation and can cause serious complication in patients with cardiovascular disease. The ability to predict post-intubation tachycardia would help clinicians by notifying a potential event to pre-treat. In this paper, we predict the potential post-intubation tachycardia. Given electronic medical record and vital signs collected before tracheal intubation, we predict whether post-intubation tachycardia will occur within 10 min. Of 1931 available patient datasets, 257 remained after filtering those with inappropriate data such as outliers and inappropriate annotations. Three feature sets were designed using feature selection algorithms, and two additional feature sets were defined by statistical inspection or manual examination. The five feature sets were compared with various machine learning models such as naïve Bayes classifiers, logistic regression, random forest, support vector machines, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural networks. Parameters of the models were optimized for each feature set. By 10-fold cross validation, we found that an logistic regression model with eight-dimensional hand-crafted features achieved an accuracy of 80.5%, recall of 85.1%, precision of 79.9%, an F1 score of 79.9%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85.

scholarly journals Machine learning models to identify low adherence to influenza vaccination among Korean adults with cardiovascular disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moojung Kim ◽  
Young Jae Kim ◽  
Sung Jin Park ◽  
Kwang Gi Kim ◽  
Pyung Chun Oh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Background Annual influenza vaccination is an important public health measure to prevent influenza infections and is strongly recommended for cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients, especially in the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The aim of this study is to develop a machine learning model to identify Korean adult CVD patients with low adherence to influenza vaccination Methods Adults with CVD (n = 815) from a nationally representative dataset of the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES V) were analyzed. Among these adults, 500 (61.4%) had answered "yes" to whether they had received seasonal influenza vaccinations in the past 12 months. The classification process was performed using the logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) machine learning techniques. Because the Ministry of Health and Welfare in Korea offers free influenza immunization for the elderly, separate models were developed for the < 65 and ≥ 65 age groups. Results The accuracy of machine learning models using 16 variables as predictors of low influenza vaccination adherence was compared; for the ≥ 65 age group, XGB (84.7%) and RF (84.7%) have the best accuracies, followed by LR (82.7%) and SVM (77.6%). For the < 65 age group, SVM has the best accuracy (68.4%), followed by RF (64.9%), LR (63.2%), and XGB (61.4%). Conclusions The machine leaning models show comparable performance in classifying adult CVD patients with low adherence to influenza vaccination.

scholarly journals Dysphagia in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke: Early Dysphagia Screening May Reduce Stroke-Related Pneumonia and Improve Stroke Outcomes

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 81-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Al-Khaled ◽  
Christine Matthis ◽  
Andreas Binder ◽  
Jonas Mudter ◽  
Joern Schattschneider ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
National Institutes Of Health ◽  
Modified Rankin Scale ◽  
Stroke Patients ◽  
Stroke Outcomes ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Reduced Risk

Background: Dysphagia is associated with poor outcome in stroke patients. Studies investigating the association of dysphagia and early dysphagia screening (EDS) with outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) are rare. The aims of our study are to investigate the association of dysphagia and EDS within 24 h with stroke-related pneumonia and outcomes. Methods: Over a 4.5-year period (starting November 2007), all consecutive AIS patients from 15 hospitals in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, were prospectively evaluated. The primary outcomes were stroke-related pneumonia during hospitalization, mortality, and disability measured on the modified Rankin Scale ≥2-5, in which 2 indicates an independence/slight disability to 5 severe disability. Results: Of 12,276 patients (mean age 73 ± 13; 49% women), 9,164 patients (74%) underwent dysphagia screening; of these patients, 55, 39, 4.7, and 1.5% of patients had been screened for dysphagia within 3, 3 to <24, 24 to ≤72, and >72 h following admission. Patients who underwent dysphagia screening were likely to be older, more affected on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and to have higher rates of neurological symptoms and risk factors than patients who were not screened. A total of 3,083 patients (25.1%; 95% CI 24.4-25.8) had dysphagia. The frequency of dysphagia was higher in patients who had undergone dysphagia screening than in those who had not (30 vs. 11.1%; p < 0.001). During hospitalization (mean 9 days), 1,271 patients (10.2%; 95% CI 9.7-10.8) suffered from stroke-related pneumonia. Patients with dysphagia had a higher rate of pneumonia than those without dysphagia (29.7 vs. 3.7%; p < 0.001). Logistic regression revealed that dysphagia was associated with increased risk of stroke-related pneumonia (OR 3.4; 95% CI 2.8-4.2; p < 0.001), case fatality during hospitalization (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.1-3.7; p < 0.001) and disability at discharge (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.6-2.3; p < 0.001). EDS within 24 h of admission appeared to be associated with decreased risk of stroke-related pneumonia (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.52-0.89; p = 0.006) and disability at discharge (OR 0.60; 95% CI 0.46-0.77; p < 0.001). Furthermore, dysphagia was independently correlated with an increase in mortality (OR 3.2; 95% CI 2.4-4.2; p < 0.001) and disability (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.8-3.0; p < 0.001) at 3 months after stroke. The rate of 3-month disability was lower in patients who had received EDS (52 vs. 40.7%; p = 0.003), albeit an association in the logistic regression was not found (OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.51-1.2; p = 0.2). Conclusions: Dysphagia exposes stroke patients to a higher risk of pneumonia, disability, and death, whereas an EDS seems to be associated with reduced risk of stroke-related pneumonia and disability.

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