scholarly journals Multivariate Analysis of Cryptocurrencies

Econometrics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Candila

Recently, the world of cryptocurrencies has experienced an undoubted increase in interest. Since the first cryptocurrency appeared in 2009 in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the popularity of digital currencies has, year by year, risen continuously. As of February 2021, there are more than 8525 cryptocurrencies with a market value of approximately USD 1676 billion. These particular assets can be used to diversify the portfolio as well as for speculative actions. For this reason, investigating the daily volatility and co-volatility of cryptocurrencies is crucial for investors and portfolio managers. In this work, the interdependencies among a panel of the most traded digital currencies are explored and evaluated from statistical and economic points of view. Taking advantage of the monthly Google queries (which appear to be the factors driving the price dynamics) on cryptocurrencies, we adopted a mixed-frequency approach within the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model. In particular, we introduced the Double Asymmetric GARCH–MIDAS model in the DCC framework.

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 144
Author(s):  
Mila Andreani ◽  
Vincenzo Candila ◽  
Giacomo Morelli ◽  
Lea Petrella

This paper shows the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy markets. We estimate daily volatilities and correlations among energy commodities relying on a mixed-frequency approach that exploits information from the number of weekly deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States. The mixed-frequency approach takes advantage of the MIxing-Data Sampling (MIDAS) methods. We compare our results to those obtained by employing two well-known models that do not account for the COVID-19 low-frequency variable, namely the Dynamic EquiCorrelation (DECO) and corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation (cDCC). Moreover, we consider four possible specifications of the volatility: GARCH, GJR, GARCH-MIDAS, and Double-Asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS. The empirical results show that our approach is statistically superior to other models and represents a valuable methodology that can be used for risk managers, investors, and policy makers to assess the effects of the pandemic on spillovers effects in energy markets.


Author(s):  
Louçã Francisco ◽  
Ash Michael

Chapter 11 assesses the growth prospects of the world economy. The history of global economic doomsaying is traced briefly, a frequently reasonable position that has not done well with the facts for the past hundred years. Capitalism has been adept at escaping from the pit and pendulum. A set of global imbalances is then reviewed that are seen as posing a severe threat to global economic stability and certainly to the prospects for sustainable and equitable growth. The Great Recession following the Crash of 2007–8 might be “different this time.” Historical and contemporary fears of “secular stagnation” are discussed but the speculative nature of stagnationist assessments is acknowledged.


2021 ◽  
Vol 81 (319) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Dulce Albarrán Macías ◽  
Pablo Mejía Reyes ◽  
Francisco López Herrera

<p>El objetivo de este documento es analizar la sincronización de los ciclos económicos de México y Estados Unidos durante el periodo 1981-2017 mediante la estimación de un coeficiente de correlación condicional dinámica que permite tener una estimación para cada periodo de tiempo. Los resultados, obtenidos a partir de distintos indicadores de producción y métodos de eliminación de tendencia, muestran un aumento desde la apertura de la economía mexicana a mediados de la década de 1980, especialmente durante las recesiones de 2001-2002 y 2008-2009 y también una serie de descensos aislados, explicados por diferencias en los ritmos de crecimiento de ambas economías, y una declinación sostenida en la fase pos-Gran Recesión que se explica principalmente por reducciones en el comercio exterior.</p><p> </p><p align="center">SYNCHRONIZATION OF THE BUSINESS CYCLES OF MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: A DYNAMIC CORRELATION APPROACH</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>The objective of this paper is to analyze the business cycle synchronization of Mexico and the United States over the period 1981-2017 by estimating a dynamic conditional correlation coefficient that allows us to have an estimate for each time period. The results, obtained from different production indicators and different de-trending methods, show an increase in this synchronization after the opening of the Mexican economy in the mid-eighties, especially during the common recessions of 2001-2002 and 2008-2009, and some isolated drops explained by differences in the growth rates of both economies as well as a sustained decline in the post-Great Recession phase resulting from the decline of international trade.</p>


Author(s):  
Michael Berlemann ◽  
Vera Jahn ◽  
Robert Lehmann

AbstractIn a globalized world with high international factor mobility, crises often spread quickly over large parts of the world. Politicians carry a vital interest in keeping crises as small and short as possible. Against this background we study whether the type of company of owner-managed SMEs, in Germany well-known as Mittelstand firms, helps increasing an economy’s crisis resistance. We study this issue at the example of the Great Recession of the years 2008/2009. Using micro panel data from the ifo Business Survey, we study the comparative performance of Mittelstand enterprises and find supporting evidence for the hypothesis that Mittelstand firms performed more stable throughout the Great Recession than non-Mittelstand firms. We also show that owner-managed SMEs performed significantly better than SMEs and owner-managed large enterprises. Thus, it is rather the combination of firm size and owner-management that leads to more crisis resistance.


2019 ◽  
pp. 31-64
Author(s):  
Demetrios Argyriades ◽  
Pan Suk Kim

With the Great Recession receding, but crises still afflicting large swaths of the world and a climate of rampant distrust adversely affecting governance, it may be time to ask whether and, if so, how and where our field went wrong. Have we been willing victims of sleep-walkers using metaphors as models? This paper argues as much. Specifically, it contends that, foisted on the world as the one- size-fits-all prescription for good governance, nationally and internationally, it has ended turning governance and democracy on their heads, while also undermining the very foundations on which a global order, based on peaceful coexistence and constructive cooperation through the United Nations, was predicated. The prevalence of symptoms of hurt and discontent should lead us to conclude that the roots of our predicament and problems go much deeper, to a might counter- culture, which triumphed in the 1990s but still goes strong, in places.


2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 560-570
Author(s):  
Gerardo del Cerro Santamaría

This article discusses the consequences of the financial crisis that started in 2008 in the West, and particularly in the United States, as a manifestation of neoliberal capitalism’s multiple failures. In doing so, it focuses on the scholarly contributions of Manuel Castells and his colleagues in two important books: Aftermath: The Cultures of the Economic Crisis (2012) and Another Economy is Possible (2017). Both books are collective works led and edited by Castells. Also included in the review is a third book by Castells, Rupture: The Crisis of Liberal Democracy (2018), which can be read as a statement on some of the political consequences of the 2008 financial crisis and a report on the current crisis of liberal democracy. The contention is that Castells et al. make an important contribution to the socio-economic literature on the financial crisis, its consequences, and the interpretation of the societal changes that ensued and are key to understand our contemporary world. Such contribution, as observed in the three books under review, can be summarized as follows: (1) Castells and colleagues provide cases and examples from around the world in a broad comparative fashion, thus expanding our understanding of a crisis that was essentially a crisis of the West with ramifications in other countries but never a truly global crisis. (2) The approach of Castells and his colleagues is interdisciplinary and goes beyond purely economic arguments to include sociological, political and cultural ideas and insights that help us understand the complexity of the historical period under analysis; readers develop an awareness of the systemic character of the crisis, where all events were closely interrelated; in particular, both micro and macro processes leading to the crisis converged into a mutually dialectical and reinforcing relationship that warrants the contention by the authors that ‘economies’ are ‘cultures.’ (3) The authors in both Aftermath and Another Economy is Possible focus on the (long) aftermath of the crisis, which is still ongoing as of September 2019 around the world; in fact, one of Castells’ main points is that the financial crisis brought about irreversible societal change, ongoing and clearly visible today, as it triggered a significant restructuring of global informational capitalism. (4) The authors provide a focus on one of the reactive consequences of the crisis: alternative economic practices developing in the aftermath of the crisis, under the premise that we might be witnessing the rise of a new economic model based on new, alternative values. (5) Castells provides a discussion (in Rupture) of aspects of the contemporary political landscape a decade after the outset of the financial crisis and the Great Recession.


2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 467-481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susana Alvarez-Diez ◽  
J. Samuel Baixauli-Soler ◽  
Maria Belda-Ruiz

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the Brexit effect – pre-Brexit and post-Brexit referendum periods – on the co-movements between the British pound (GBP), the euro (EUR) and the yen (JPY) against the US dollar (USD).Design/methodology/approachTo ascertain the asymmetric behavior of dynamic correlations, the authors use the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model, the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (A-DCC) model and the diagonal BEKK model assuming Gaussian and Student’stdistribution. Several dummy variables have been included in order to identify the main periods related to Brexit.FindingsFindings show a negative impact of the pre-Brexit referendum period on the correlation between GBP and EUR, while there is no significant effect on GBP–JPY and EUR–JPY pairs. The loss of correlation in the GBP–EUR pairing has not recovered during the post-Brexit referendum period, which could be attributed to the uncertainty about the final impact of Brexit on British and Eurozone economies.Practical implicationsThe loss of correlation in the GBP–EUR pair has important implications for individual investors, portfolio managers and traders with respect to hedging activities, international trading and investment strategies.Originality/valueThe results are the first to address how Brexit has impacted on the co-movements between exchange rates using different multivariate models that allow for correlations to change over time.


2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio C. Bagliano ◽  
Claudio Morana

Author(s):  
Benjamin Leruth

France has established itself as one of the most ‘generous’ welfare states in the world. The Great Recession of 2007–8 confronted French social policy with escalating unemployment and deepening inequalities. Combined with major pension reforms, these led to strong levels of dissatisfaction across the country, exacerbated by tensions over immigration, Euroscepticism, and internal security problems. This chapter examines how these issues developed in political context and uses material from attitude surveys to analyse existing and future challenges for the welfare state in France. It assesses recent reforms: governments of right and left offered contrasting programmes but failed to win public trust. France now stands at a cross-roads, facing a strong presidential challenge from the anti-immigrant, anti-EU right.


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