scholarly journals Comparative Risk Assessment for Fossil Energy Chains Using Bayesian Model Averaging

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 295
Author(s):  
Matteo Spada ◽  
Peter Burgherr
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Severe Accident ◽  
Accident Risk ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Fossil Energy ◽  
Accident Data

The accident risk of severe (≥5 fatalities) accidents in fossil energy chains (Coal, Oil and Natural Gas) is analyzed. The full chain risk is assessed for Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 28 Member States of the European Union (EU28) and non-OECD countries. Furthermore, for Coal, Chinese data are analysed separately for three different periods, i.e., 1994–1999, 2000–2008 and 2009–2016, due to different data sources, and highly incomplete data prior to 1994. A Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is applied to investigate the risk and associated uncertainties of a comprehensive accident data set from the Paul Scherrer Institute’s ENergy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD). By means of BMA, frequency and severity distributions were established, and a final posterior distribution including model uncertainty is constructed by a weighted combination of the different models. The proposed approach, by dealing with lack of data and lack of knowledge, allows for a general reduction of the uncertainty in the calculated risk indicators, which is beneficial for informed decision-making strategies under uncertainty.

MODEL SELECTION AND AVERAGING OF HEALTH COSTS IN EPISODE TREATMENT GROUPS

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shujuan Huang ◽  
Brian Hartman ◽  
Vytaras Brazauskas
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Model Selection ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Large Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Treatment Groups ◽  
Wide Range

Episode Treatment Groups (ETGs) classify related services into medically relevant and distinct units describing an episode of care. Proper model selection for those ETG-based costs is essential to adequately price and manage health insurance risks. The optimal claim cost model (or model probabilities) can vary depending on the disease. We compare four potential models (lognormal, gamma, log-skew-t and Lomax) using four different model selection methods (AIC and BIC weights, Random Forest feature classification and Bayesian model averaging) on 320 ETGs. Using the data from a major health insurer, which consists of more than 33 million observations from 9 million claimants, we compare the various methods on both speed and precision, and also examine the wide range of selected models for the different ETGs. Several case studies are provided for illustration. It is found that Random Forest feature selection is computationally efficient and sufficiently accurate, hence being preferred in this large data set. When feasible (on smaller data sets), Bayesian model averaging is preferred because of the posterior model probabilities.

scholarly journals A tutorial on Bayesian multi-model linear regression with BAS and JASP

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don van den Bergh ◽  
Merlise A. Clyde ◽  
Akash R. Komarlu Narendra Gupta ◽  
Tim de Jong ◽  
Quentin F. Gronau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Selection Of

AbstractLinear regression analyses commonly involve two consecutive stages of statistical inquiry. In the first stage, a single ‘best’ model is defined by a specific selection of relevant predictors; in the second stage, the regression coefficients of the winning model are used for prediction and for inference concerning the importance of the predictors. However, such second-stage inference ignores the model uncertainty from the first stage, resulting in overconfident parameter estimates that generalize poorly. These drawbacks can be overcome by model averaging, a technique that retains all models for inference, weighting each model’s contribution by its posterior probability. Although conceptually straightforward, model averaging is rarely used in applied research, possibly due to the lack of easily accessible software. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we provide a tutorial on linear regression using Bayesian model averaging in , based on the BAS package in . Firstly, we provide theoretical background on linear regression, Bayesian inference, and Bayesian model averaging. Secondly, we demonstrate the method on an example data set from the World Happiness Report. Lastly, we discuss limitations of model averaging and directions for dealing with violations of model assumptions.

scholarly journals A Tutorial on Bayesian Multi-Model Linear Regression with BAS and JASP

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don van den Bergh ◽  
Merlise Aycock Clyde ◽  
Akash Raj ◽  
Tim de Jong ◽  
Quentin Frederik Gronau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Selection Of

Linear regression analyses commonly involve two consecutive stages of statistical inquiry. In the first stage, a single ‘best’ model is defined by a specific selection of relevant predictors; in the second stage, the regression coefficients of the winning model are used for prediction and for inference concerning the importance of the predictors. However, such second-stage inference ignores the model uncertainty from the first stage, resulting in overconfident parameter estimates that generalize poorly. These drawbacks can be overcome by model averaging, a technique that retains all models for inference, weighting each model’s contribution by its posterior probability. Although conceptually straightforward, model averaging is rarely used in applied research, possibly due to the lack of easily accessible software. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we provide a tutorial on linear regression using Bayesian model averaging in JASP, based on the BAS package in R. Firstly, we provide theoretical background on linear regression, Bayesian inference, and Bayesian model averaging. Secondly, we demonstrate the method on an example data set from the World Happiness Report. Lastly, we discuss limitations of model averaging and directions for dealing with violations of model assumptions.

scholarly journals Factors Affecting Life Expectancy in East Java: Predictions with A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-295
Author(s):  
Harun Al Azies ◽  
Vivi Mentari Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Expectancy Value ◽  
Factors Affecting

This study predicts the factors that influence life expectancy in East Java, Indonesia. In particular, this study compares the prediction results between the linear regression model and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The study used a 2015 data set from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of the province of East Java.The results of data exploration show that the life expectancy in East Java is 70.68 years, the Bondowoso regency is the region with the lowest life expectancy at 65.73 years and the city of Surabaya is the area with the highest life expectancy value in East Java, which is 73.85 years.The results of the inference study indicate that the factors that are expected to affect life expectancy in East Java are the infant mortality rate and the illiteracy rate of the population aged 10 and over.The results of the comparison between the BMA and the regression show that the BMA is a better model for predicting the factors that affect life expectancy in East Java than the regression model because the BMA model can estimate the parameters more efficiently by estimating the model parameters based on the standard error value.

Selecting Predictors by Using Bayesian Model Averaging in Bridge Models

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Bencivelli ◽  
Massimiliano Giuseppe Marcellino ◽  
Gianluca Moretti
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Bridge Models
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