scholarly journals Load Nowcasting: Predicting Actuals with Limited Data

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1443
Author(s):  
Florian Ziel
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Ridge Estimator ◽  
Accuracy Improvement ◽  
Energy Forecasting ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Generation Unit

We introduce the problem of load nowcasting to the energy forecasting literature. The recent load of the objective area is predicted based on limited available metering data within this area. Thus, slightly different from load forecasting, we are predicting the recent past using limited available metering data from the supply side of the system. Next, to an industry benchmark model, we introduce multiple high-dimensional models for providing more accurate predictions. They evaluate metered interconnector and generation unit data of different types like wind and solar power, storages, and nuclear and fossil power plants. Additionally, we augment the model by seasonal and autoregressive components to improve the nowcasting performance. We consider multiple estimation techniques based on the lassoand ridge and study the impact of the choice of the training/calibration period. The methodology is applied to a European TSO dataset from 2014 to 2019. The overall results show that in comparison to the industry benchmark, an accuracy improvement in terms of MAE and RMSE of about 60% is achieved. The best model is based on the ridge estimator and uses a specific non-standard shrinkage target. Due to the linear model structure, we can easily interpret the model output.

scholarly journals Deactivation of V2O5−WO3/TiO2 DeNOx Catalyst under Commercial Conditions in Power Production Plant

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 6200
Author(s):  
Maciej Zyrkowski ◽  
Monika Motak ◽  
Bogdan Samojeden ◽  
Krzysztof Szczepanek
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Catalyst Deactivation ◽  
Catalytic Reduction ◽  
Production Plant ◽  
Health It ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Ammonia Slip ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Denox Catalyst

Nitrogen dioxide is one of the most dangerous air pollutants, because its high concentration in air can be directly harmful to human health. It is also responsible for photochemical smog and acid rains. One of the most commonly used techniques to tackle this problem in large combustion plants is selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Commercial SCR installations are often equipped with a V2O5−WO3/TiO2 catalyst. In power plants which utilize a solid fuel boiler, catalysts are exposed to unfavorable conditions. In the paper, factors responsible for deactivation of such a catalyst are comprehensively reviewed where different types of deactivation mechanism, like mechanical, chemical or thermal mechanisms, are separately described. The paper presents the impact of sulfur trioxide and ammonia slip on the catalyst deactivation as well as the problem of ammonium bisulfate formation. The latter is one of the crucial factors influencing the loss of catalytic activity. The majority of issues with fast catalyst deactivation occur when the catalyst work in off-design conditions, in particular in too high or too low temperatures.

scholarly journals Reproducing different types of changes in hydrological indicators with rainfall-runoff models

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 238-256
Author(s):  
Carolina Massmann
Keyword(s):  
Objective Function ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Anthropogenic Changes ◽  
Riverine Ecosystems ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Future Value ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Flow Reversals

Abstract Hydrological indicators support analyses about the impact of climate and anthropogenic changes on riverine ecosystems. As these studies often rely on hydrological models for estimating the future value of the indicators, it is important to investigate how well, and under which conditions, we can replicate changes in the indicators. This study looks at these questions by investigating the performance that can be achieved depending on the objective function for calibrating the model, the direction of the change in the indicator, the magnitude of this change and the properties of the catchments. The results indicate that, in general, indicators describing the magnitude of discharge (monthly and annual) can be adequately estimated with hydrological models, but that there are difficulties when estimating the characteristics of flow pulses, flow reversals and timing variables. For some of these indicators, it is not even possible to correctly estimate the direction of large changes. The analysis showed further that these problems cannot be resolved by adjusting the calibrated parameters, but that the model structure is unsuitable for modelling these indicators.

An implementation model for automated construction materials tracking and locating

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 588-599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Nasir ◽  
Carl T. Haas ◽  
Duncan A. Young ◽  
Saiedeh Nawabzadi Razavi ◽  
Carlos Caldas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Emerging Technologies ◽  
Construction Materials ◽  
Materials Management ◽  
Implementation Model ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Industrial Projects ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Good materials management on large construction projects is critical for maximizing productivity and project performance. When key materials are temporarily lost, whole crews may be left idle and the project may be delayed. When key materials are completely lost, the impact can be enormous. In fact, one of the major problems in managing construction materials and equipment is tracking them in the supply chain and knowing their location on large job sites. Fortunately, location can now be automatically estimated within metres using emerging technologies. This paper proposes a general implementation model for automated construction materials tracking and locating on large industrial projects, such as refineries and power plants. It includes a methodology for determining what type of technology should be used for different types of projects and construction materials. It is based on an analysis of the capabilities of emerging technologies and on experience gained from implementing automated materials tracking prototypes on two large industrial projects. It is concluded that these technologies can produce substantial net benefits, if implemented properly on the right projects using the model described here.

Quota Women Are Threatening to Men

2017 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 107-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klea Faniko ◽  
Till Burckhardt ◽  
Oriane Sarrasin ◽  
Fabio Lorenzi-Cioldi ◽  
Siri Øyslebø Sørensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Organizational Performance ◽  
Gender Stereotypes ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
Preferential Treatment ◽  
Public Sector Employees ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Women In Decision Making ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Two studies carried out among Albanian public-sector employees examined the impact of different types of affirmative action policies (AAPs) on (counter)stereotypical perceptions of women in decision-making positions. Study 1 (N = 178) revealed that participants – especially women – perceived women in decision-making positions as more masculine (i.e., agentic) than feminine (i.e., communal). Study 2 (N = 239) showed that different types of AA had different effects on the attribution of gender stereotypes to AAP beneficiaries: Women benefiting from a quota policy were perceived as being more communal than agentic, while those benefiting from weak preferential treatment were perceived as being more agentic than communal. Furthermore, we examined how the belief that AAPs threaten men’s access to decision-making positions influenced the attribution of these traits to AAP beneficiaries. The results showed that men who reported high levels of perceived threat, as compared to men who reported low levels of perceived threat, attributed more communal than agentic traits to the beneficiaries of quotas. These findings suggest that AAPs may have created a backlash against its beneficiaries by emphasizing gender-stereotypical or counterstereotypical traits. Thus, the framing of AAPs, for instance, as a matter of enhancing organizational performance, in the process of policy making and implementation, may be a crucial tool to countering potential backlash.

ANALISIS RISIKO OPERASIONAL MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN DISTRIBUSI KERUGIAN DENGAN METODE AGREGAT

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Y. ARBI ◽  
R. BUDIARTI ◽  
I G. P. PURNABA
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial Distribution ◽  
Binomial Distribution ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Loss Distribution Approach ◽  
Potential Loss ◽  
The Impact

Operational risk is defined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes or external problems. Insurance companies as financial institution that also faced at risk. Recording of operating losses in insurance companies, were not properly conducted so that the impact on the limited data for operational losses. In this work, the data of operational loss observed from the payment of the claim. In general, the number of insurance claims can be modelled using the Poisson distribution, where the expected value of the claims is similar with variance, while the negative binomial distribution, the expected value was bound to be less than the variance.Analysis tools are used in the measurement of the potential loss is the loss distribution approach with the aggregate method. In the aggregate method, loss data grouped in a frequency distribution and severity distribution. After doing 10.000 times simulation are resulted total loss of claim value, which is total from individual claim every simulation. Then from the result was set the value of potential loss (OpVar) at a certain level confidence.

Economic Structure of Pakistan.—By Khawaja Amjad Saeed. Accountancy and Taxation Service Institute, Lahore, 1977. pp. 396.

1978 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 264-265
Author(s):  
Moin-ud-din Moin-ud-din
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
International Comparisons ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Development Effort ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
World Economic ◽  
World Economic Order ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vast Range

A number of books on Pakistan's economy have recently been published, but most of them do hot provide the latest statistical data or keep pace with events and development during the 1970's. The book under review, however, has admirably fulfilled the requirements. It covers a vast range of subjects concerning economic development in the country during the recent past The book is divided into nine parts and covers such diverse areas as development, industry, the price situation and the impact of inflation, Pakistan's planning and development effort, trade priorities and balance of payments situation, .taxation* foreign aid, and socio-economic reforms. The analysis is general, broadbased, and historical in perspective and a large amount of data have been put together. To bring out a clearer picture international comparisons are made whereever possible, especially in the last part of the book where the author reiterates on the need for a "New World Economic Order".

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