scholarly journals Will China Achieve Its Ambitious Goal?—Forecasting the CO2 Emission Intensity of China towards 2030

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Li ◽  
Yigang Wei ◽  
Zhang Dong
Keyword(s):  
Emission Intensity ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Emission Peak ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Co2 Emission Intensity

China has set out an ambitious target of emission abatement; that is, a 60–65% reduction in CO2 emission intensity by 2030 compared with the 2005 baseline level and emission peak realisation. This paper aimed to forecast whether China can fulfil the reduction target of CO2 emission intensity and peak by 2030 based on the historical time series data from 1990 to 2018. Four different forecasting techniques were used to improve the accuracy of the forecasting results: the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and three grey system-based models, including the traditional grey model (1,1), the discrete grey model (DGM) and the rolling DGM. The behaviours of these techniques were compared and validated in the forecasting comparisons. The forecasting performance of the four forecasting models was good considering the minimum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), demonstrating MAPE values lower than 2%. ARIMA showed the best forecasting performance over the historical period with a MAPE value of 0.60%. The forecasting results of ARIMA indicate that China would not achieve sufficient reductions despite its projected emission peak of 96.3 hundred million tons by 2021. That is, the CO2 emission intensity of China will be reduced by 57.65% in 2030 compared with the 2005 levels. This reduction is lower than the government goal of 60–65%. This paper presents pragmatic recommendations for effective emission intensity reduction to ensure the achievements of the claimed policy goals.

scholarly journals Improving the precision of modeling the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in mainland China with an ensemble machine learning approach

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0248597
Author(s):  
Guo-hua Ye ◽  
Mirxat Alim ◽  
Peng Guan ◽  
De-sheng Huang ◽  
Bao-sen Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
The Future

Objective Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), one of the main public health concerns in mainland China, is a group of clinically similar diseases caused by hantaviruses. Statistical approaches have always been leveraged to forecast the future incidence rates of certain infectious diseases to effectively control their prevalence and outbreak potential. Compared to the use of one base model, model stacking can often produce better forecasting results. In this study, we fitted the monthly reported cases of HFRS in mainland China with a model stacking approach and compared its forecasting performance with those of five base models. Method We fitted the monthly reported cases of HFRS ranging from January 2004 to June 2019 in mainland China with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model; the Holt-Winter (HW) method, seasonal decomposition of the time series by LOESS (STL); a neural network autoregressive (NNAR) model; and an exponential smoothing state space model with a Box-Cox transformation; ARMA errors; and trend and seasonal components (TBATS), and we combined the forecasting results with the inverse rank approach. The forecasting performance was estimated based on several accuracy criteria for model prediction, including the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Result There was a slight downward trend and obvious seasonal periodicity inherent in the time series data for HFRS in mainland China. The model stacking method was selected as the best approach with the best performance in terms of both fitting (RMSE 128.19, MAE 85.63, MAPE 8.18) and prediction (RMSE 151.86, MAE 118.28, MAPE 13.16). Conclusion The results showed that model stacking by using the optimal mean forecasting weight of the five abovementioned models achieved the best performance in terms of predicting HFRS one year into the future. This study has corroborated the conclusion that model stacking is an easy way to enhance prediction accuracy when modeling HFRS.

scholarly journals A Bayesian Model to Forecast the Time Series Kinetic Energy Data for a Power System

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3299
Author(s):  
Ashish Shrestha ◽  
Bishal Ghimire ◽  
Francisco Gonzalez-Longatt
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Power System ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Power Converter ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Optimal Size ◽  
Short Term

Withthe massive penetration of electronic power converter (EPC)-based technologies, numerous issues are being noticed in the modern power system that may directly affect system dynamics and operational security. The estimation of system performance parameters is especially important for transmission system operators (TSOs) in order to operate a power system securely. This paper presents a Bayesian model to forecast short-term kinetic energy time series data for a power system, which can thus help TSOs to operate a respective power system securely. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method used as a No-U-Turn sampler and Stan’s limited-memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (LM-BFGS) algorithm is used as the optimization method here. The concept of decomposable time series modeling is adopted to analyze the seasonal characteristics of datasets, and numerous performance measurement matrices are used for model validation. Besides, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to compare the results of the presented model. At last, the optimal size of the training dataset is identified, which is required to forecast the 30-min values of the kinetic energy with a low error. In this study, one-year univariate data (1-min resolution) for the integrated Nordic power system (INPS) are used to forecast the kinetic energy for sequences of 30 min (i.e., short-term sequences). Performance evaluation metrics such as the root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) of the proposed model are calculated here to be 4.67, 3.865, 0.048, and 8.15, respectively. In addition, the performance matrices can be improved by up to 3.28, 2.67, 0.034, and 5.62, respectively, by increasing MCMC sampling. Similarly, 180.5 h of historic data is sufficient to forecast short-term results for the case study here with an accuracy of 1.54504 for the RMSE.

Examining the driving forces for improving China’s CO2 emission intensity using the decomposing method

2011 ◽  
Vol 88 (12) ◽  
pp. 4496-4504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongfu Tan ◽  
Li Li ◽  
Jianjun Wang ◽  
Jianhui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Emission Intensity ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Co2 Emission Intensity

Path analysis of factors impacting China's CO2 emission intensity: Viewpoint on energy

Energy Policy ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 650-658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shusen Gui ◽  
Chunyou Wu ◽  
Ying Qu ◽  
Lingling Guo
Keyword(s):  
Path Analysis ◽  
Emission Intensity ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Co2 Emission Intensity

The changing role of global value chains in CO2 emission intensity in 2000–2014

2021 ◽  
Vol 93 ◽  
pp. 105053
Author(s):  
Danyang Zhang ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Andreas Löschel ◽  
Peng Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Emission Intensity ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Co2 Emission Intensity ◽  
Changing Role

scholarly journals Exploring Potential Pathways toward Energy-Related Carbon Emission Reduction in Heavy Industrial Regions of China: An Input–Output Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 2148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingyao Peng ◽  
Yidi Sun ◽  
Junnian Song ◽  
Wei Yang
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Emission Intensity ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Carbon Emission Reduction ◽  
Industrial Regions ◽  
Co2 Emission Intensity

It is a very urgent issue to reduce energy-related carbon emissions in China. The three northeastern provinces (Heilongjiang (HLJ), Jilin (JL), and Liaoning (LN)) are typical heavy industrial regions in China, playing an important role in the national carbon emission reduction target. In this study, we analyzed the energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and CO2 emission intensity of each sector in the three regions, and we compared them with the national level and those of China’s most developed province Guangdong (GD). Then, based on an input–output (I–O) framework, linkage analysis of production and CO2 emission from sector–system and sector–sector dimensions was conducted. The results showed that the three regions accounted for about 1/10 of China’s energy consumption and 1/6 of China’s CO2 emissions in 2012. In addition, the level of energy structure, CO2 emission intensity, and sectoral structure lagged behind China’s average level, much lower than those for GD. According to the sectoral characteristics of each region and unified backward/forward linkages of production and CO2 emissions, we divided sectoral clusters into those whose development was to be encouraged and those whose development was to be restricted. The results of this paper could provide policy–makers with reference to exploring potential pathways toward energy-related carbon emission reduction in heavy industrial regions.

scholarly journals Hybrid methodology for tuberculosis incidence time-series forecasting based on ARIMA and a NAR neural network

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (6) ◽  
pp. 1118-1129 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. WANG ◽  
C. DENG ◽  
J. P. LI ◽  
Y. Y. ZHANG ◽  
X. Y. LI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
And Control

SUMMARYTuberculosis (TB) affects people globally and is being reconsidered as a serious public health problem in China. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of TB. This study proposes a hybrid model combining autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with a nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural network for forecasting the incidence of TB from January 2007 to March 2016. Prediction performance was compared between the hybrid model and the ARIMA model. The best-fit hybrid model was combined with an ARIMA (3,1,0) × (0,1,1)12 and NAR neural network with four delays and 12 neurons in the hidden layer. The ARIMA-NAR hybrid model, which exhibited lower mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error of 0·2209, 0·1373, and 0·0406, respectively, in the modelling performance, could produce more accurate forecasting of TB incidence compared to the ARIMA model. This study shows that developing and applying the ARIMA-NAR hybrid model is an effective method to fit the linear and nonlinear patterns of time-series data, and this model could be helpful in the prevention and control of TB.

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