scholarly journals Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations for Tourism Receipts: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4349
Author(s):  
Siamand Hesami ◽  
Bezhan Rustamov ◽  
Husam Rjoub ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Significant Finding ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Systematic Understanding

This study investigates the influence of oil prices on tourism income in countries that heavily relied on crude oil exports from 2000 to 2017. We found that oil prices and tourism receipts are cointegrated, revealing the existence of their long-run equilibrium relationship. Another significant finding to emerge from this study is the presence of a unidirectional Granger causality that runs from the oil prices to the tourism receipts. The results of the current study are of particular importance for policymakers who operate in oil-exporting countries. The implications provide a systematic understanding of the effect of oil price fluctuations on tourism income which can benefit investors greatly by enabling them to hedge against oil price fluctuations and plan for their tourism business and policymakers by enabling them to set policies to stabilize oil price fluctuations and plan for tourism development, correspondingly.

scholarly journals Impact of FDI inflow, crude oil prices, and economic growth on CO2 emission in Tunisia: Symmetric and asymmetric analysis through ARDL and NARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Tarek Ghazouani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run

This study explores the symmetric and asymmetric impact of real GDP per capita, FDI inflow, and crude oil price on CO2 emission in Tunisia for the 1972–2016 period. Using the cointegration tests, namely ARDL and NARDL bound test, the results show that the variables are associated in a long run relationship. Long run estimates from both approach confirms the validity of ECK hypothesis for Tunisia. Symmetric analysis reveals that economic growth and the price of crude oil adversely affect the environment, in contrast to FDI inflows that reduce CO2 emissions in the long run. Whereas the asymmetric analysis show that increase in crude oil price harm the environment and decrease in crude oil price have positive repercussions on the environment. The causality analysis suggests that a bilateral link exists between economic growth and carbon emissions and a one-way causality ranges from FDI inflows and crude oil prices to carbon emissions. Thus, some policy recommendations have been formulated to help Tunisia reduce carbon emissions and support economic development.

scholarly journals Price Integration Analysis of Crude Oil and Vegetable Oils

HABITAT ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-92
Author(s):  
Resti Destiarni ◽  
Ahmad Jamil
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Vegetable Oil ◽  
Vegetable Oils ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Long Run

The importance of palm oil as Indonesia's main export commodity from the non-oil and gas sector makes a study about the price integration of crude oil and vegetable oils is conducted. The time-series data is used are monthly data from 2002:2 to 2019:4. Using the Vector Correction Model (VECM), this study aimed to analyze the price integration among Log of Crude Oil Price (LCOP), Palm Oil Price (LPOP), Soybean Oil Price (LSOP), Sun Flower Oil Price (LSFOP) and Rapeseed Oil Price (LROP). Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF) stationary test results show that the time series for those data are stationary at first difference. Using the Pearson Correlation test among price data indicates that there is a high positive correlation among those price data. It reveals a high degree of short-run integration among oil price data. Based on the Johansen cointegration test, the result reveals the presence of long-run relationships among determinants. Knowing presence of cointegration among the data, a bivariate cointegration test was conducted in this study. The test showed that LCOP did not have long-run relationship with vegetable oil prices. The Engel Granger Causality test revealed that generally, LPOP have influence on the movement both LCOP and other vegetable oil prices.

Dynamic linkages among international crude oil, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market: evidence from ARDL bound testing approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shelly Singhal ◽  
Sangita Choudhary ◽  
Pratap Chandra Biswal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run association and short-run causality among oil price, exchange rate and stock market in Norwegian context. Design/methodology/approach This work uses auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound co-integration test to examine the long-run association among international crude oil, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market. Further to test the causality, Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test is used. Daily data ranging from 1 January, 2011 to 31 December, 2018 is used in this study. Findings Findings of this study suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among oil price, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market when oil price is taken as dependent variable. Further, this study observes the bi-directional causality between Norwegian stock market and exchange rate and unidirectional causality between oil and Norwegian stock market (from oil to stock market). Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this the first study in context of Norway to explore the long-run association and causal relationships among international crude oil price, exchange rate and stock market index. Particularly, association of exchange rate and stock market largely remains unexplored for Norwegian economy. Further, majority of studies conducted in Norwegian setup have considered the period up to year 2010 and association of these variables is found to be time varying. Finally, this study uses ARDL bound co-integration test and Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test. These methodologies have been used in literature in context of other countries like India and Mexico but not yet applied to study the Norwegian case.

scholarly journals Test for asymmetry on the ex-pump price of premium gasoline in Ghana, Kenya, and Colombia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-89
Author(s):  
Senanu Kwasi Klutse ◽  
Gábor Dávid Kiss
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Once again, the World has been faced with an oil price shock as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic. This has resurrected an old debate of whether retail fuel prices adjust significantly to either increases or decreases in international crude oil prices. With many countries moving towards the deregulation of their petroleum sub-sector, the impact of the US dollar exchange rate on retail fuel prices cannot be overlooked. This study investigates the rate at which positive and negative changes in international Brent crude oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate affected the increases or decreases in the ex-pump price of premium gasoline between February 2012 and December 2019. Using a non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag model, the exchange rate was found to play a significant role in fluctuations in the retail price of premium gasoline in Ghana and Colombia in the long run, howev-er, the rate of adjustment between the negative and positive changes was not significant, dispelling the perception of price asymmetry. There was no significant relationship between the ex-pump price of premium gasoline and the international Brent crude oil price in Ghana and Kenya in the long run. This study recommends that the aforementioned countries prioritise the creation of ex-change rate buffers to prevent exchange rate shocks that may affect retail fuel prices.

scholarly journals Modeling Nonlinear Granger Causality and Co-Integration Between Gold Price Returns and Crude Oil Price Returns

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-116
Author(s):  
Nawaz Ahmad ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gold Market ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Multiplicative Effects

To model the nonlinear analysis of commodities, Gold market and crude oil market have importance to test their lead and lag price mechanism between the two. For this purpose, the log transformation has been done to calculate easier multiplicative effects. However, to record the dynamic effects of long run cointegreation model applied and tested to find the significance of the problem statement issues. Furthermore, granger causality approach also uses to examine the fundamental linkages between Gold Prices and Crude Oil prices. Meanwhile, the study of Gold markets and oil markets gained popularity among development economists during in last some decades. And try to find out stochastic relationship between the two nonlinear markets. The academic practitioners paved their efforts to run casual time series models in order to find out the robust results which help the economists and financial experts to drive the industry indicator in positive way. This study confirmed that there is cointegration between the two important indicators of large market commodities i.e Gold and crude oil and also casual interactions. Pairwise Granger Causality Tests concluded that Gold Prices return has Granger Cause on Oil Prices return in the long run and if the βeta change in the prices of gold may affect on the prices of crude oil in the long run.

Oil price and exchange rate nexus in Algeria: evidence from nonlinear asymmetric and frequency domain approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidi Mohammed Chekouri ◽  
Abdelkader Sahed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate and oil prices in Algeria over the period 2004Q1–2019Q4. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method is used to capture the potential asymmetric relationship among oil prices and the exchange rate. Frequency domain spectral Granger causality test is also applied to investigate the causal linkage between the two variables. The wavelet coherence is applied to analyze the evolution of this relationship both in time and frequency domains. Findings The empirical results reveal evidence of long-run asymmetric effects of oil price on Algeria’s real effective exchange rate (REER), implying that an increase in oil price causes a real exchange rate to appreciate, while a decrease in oil price leads to a real exchange rate to depreciate. More specifically, it is found that the impact of negative oil price shocks is higher than the one associated with positive shocks. The spectral Granger causality results further indicate that there is unidirectional causality running from oil price to REER in both medium and long run. The wavelet coherence findings provide evidence of some co-movement between the REER and oil price and point out that the oil price is leading real exchange rate in the medium and long terms. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by investigating the asymmetric impact and the time domain causal linkage between oil price fluctuations and real exchange rate in Algeria.

Oil prices are likely to stay high to the end of 2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Wide Spread ◽  
Content Type ◽  
West Texas ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Market Expectations

Subject Outlook for the oil price. Significance OPEC’s decision not to raise production ahead of the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports in November has caused oil prices and market expectations to jump. Impacts US sanctions on Iranian exports are likely to cut global supply by up to 1.5 million barrels per day, twice the forecast earlier in 2018. The wide spread between the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) grades of crude oil will make US refining exports more competitive. Higher oil prices will raise prices and damage budget and trade balances in emerging-market net importers -- adding to mounting risks.

An Empirical Analysis of Relative Oil Price Shocks and Chinese Net Processing Exports

2011 ◽  
Vol 347-353 ◽  
pp. 3098-3102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Ma ◽  
Wei Yang Diao
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Endogenous Technological Change ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper studies the effects of Chinese relative domestic oil prices on net processing exports. Using a set of monthly data ranging from 2002 to 2008, we identify a long-run equilibrium cointegrating relationship between the two inflationary series. The unidirectional short-run Granger causality is running from relative oil prices to net processing exports, while in the long-run, the Granger causality is bidirectional. What is noteworthy is that relative oil price shocks have long-run positive effects on Chinese net processing exports, indicating the existence of an energy cost-driven mechanism of endogenous technological change.

scholarly journals Investigating the Asymmetry Effects of Crude Oil Price on Renewable Energy Consumption in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pritish Sahu ◽  
Sakiru Adebola Solarin ◽  
Usama Al-mulali ◽  
Ilhan Ozturk
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Abstract The reduction in oil prices might make crude oil a cheaper alternative to renewable energy. Given this, the present paper examines the effect of fluctuation of oil prices on the use of renewable energy in the United States during the period 1970–2019. We constructed two nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models to examine the effect of the positive and negative oil prices shocks on the use of renewable energy in the US. The renewable energy consumption is taken as the dependent variable and GDP, Brent crude prices, population density, trade openness and price index as independent variables. The result revealed that the rise in crude oil price, GDP and population density will increase renewable energy use in the short run and in the long run as well. Moreover, the study finds that any decrease in oil prices will decrease renewable energy use in the short run and its effect will eventually diminish in the long run.

scholarly journals Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Human Development: A Standard Study of Iraq

2018 ◽  
pp. 396-399
Keyword(s):  
Human Development ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

This paper examines the impact of oil price fluctuations on Human development in Iraq. We employed UNDP statistical data in HDI and oil prices were obtained from OPEC official statistics. EGARCH model is applied to estimate the series of oil price fluctuation. Further, we applied ARDL bound test approach to estimate the long run relationship between HDI and oil price fluctuation. Evidence shows that there is a long run relationship among the variables under study. A significant impact on human development index is witness due to fluctuations in oil prices. Since the dependence of Iraqi economy on oil exports tightly align the government spending with oil revenues. Therefore, this study proposes that Government should adopt a diversified policy and invest in other sectors of the economy, such as the industrial sectors. Investment in these sectors will help to increase the output of exportable goods. Exports of these goods can earn more foreign exchange. This will reduce the heavy reliance on oil revenues. The government needs to spend more money to provide infrastructure like transport facilities and stable electricity supply. This will help encourage private companies to invest more in their economic resources by reducing the cost of doing business.

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