Sociality of Future Outcomes Moderates The Effects Of Warmth And Competence On Social Optimism Bias - A Pre-Registered Study

People are overoptimistic about the future of those they like or admire (social optimism bias), expecting significantly more desirable than undesirable outcomes. By contrast, they are pessimistic about those they don’t like. To operationalize the (dis)like of social targets, warmth and competence are used as two universal dimensions of social perception. In this pre-registered study, we replicate previous findings while adding two new levels of complexity. First, we make the distinction between the sociality of future outcomes: “alone” outcomes (e.g., enjoying a quiet afternoon by oneself) and “social” outcomes (e.g., enjoying a vacation with the significant other). Second, we investigate the effect of attachment styles on one’s expectations for alone and social outcomes towards the social targets. In line with our hypotheses, the sociality of outcomes moderates both the additive and the multiplicative effects of the warmth and competence of social targets on social optimism bias. Diverging from our hypotheses, we find that attachment anxiety and avoidance do not influence the effects of warmth and competence on social optimism bias. However, exploratory analyses revealed that attachment dimensions buffer the magnitude of social optimism bias for highly self-relevant social targets but do not impact a social pessimism bias for irrelevant targets.

Taking dyads seriously

International relations scholarship concerns dyads, yet standard modeling approaches fail to adequately capture the data generating process behind dyadic events and processes. As a result, they suffer from biased coefficients and poorly calibrated standard errors. We show how a regression-based approach, the Additive and Multiplicative Effects (AME) model, can be used to account for the inherent dependencies in dyadic data and glean substantive insights in the interrelations between actors. First, we conduct a simulation to highlight how the model captures dependencies and show that accounting for these processes improves our ability to conduct inference on dyadic data. Second, we compare the AME model to approaches used in three prominent studies from recent international relations scholarship. For each study, we find that compared to AME, the modeling approach used performs notably worse at capturing the data generating process. Further, conventional methods misstate the effect of key variables and the uncertainty in these effects. Finally, AME outperforms standard approaches in terms of out-of-sample fit. In sum, our work shows the consequences of failing to take the dependencies inherent to dyadic data seriously. Most importantly, by better modeling the data generating process underlying political phenomena, the AME framework improves scholars’ ability to conduct inferential analyses on dyadic data.

An Intersectional Analysis of Labor Market Outcomes

Recent work highlights the importance of intersectionality to the study of the economic and labor market inequalities of those with disabilities. Yet, little attention has been given to examining the causes and consequences of these intersectional effects. The current chapter expands on previous research by (1) examining how race/ethnicity, gender, and disability status work in tandem to shape employment probabilities among working-age adults with disabilities and (2) whether potential disparities among these groups can be explained by government assistance receipt. This chapter uses data from the 2017 American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate a series of logistic regression models predicting employment from 16 race-gender-disability groups. Results provide evidence for a “spillover effect” where the disadvantages or advantages an individual acquires from the combination of their status-based characteristics spill over to affect their employment probabilities. This spillover effect may result from the multiplicative effects of race/ethnicity, gender, and disability status on institutions, including employment and government assistance, intertwining to create and maintain hierarchies of disadvantage, leading to overlapping institutions of oppression.

MULTIPLICATIVE EFFECTS OF HYBRID THREATS*

The purpose of this article is to develop methodological approaches to assess the likelihood of multiplicative effects of hybrid threat combinations based on their systematization according to the key areas of hybrid confrontation. Methodology. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to identify the key areas of hybrid confrontation; methods of abstraction and generalization - to justify the multiplicative effects of implementing combinations of hybrid threats; method of mathematical modeling – to formalize the criterion of effectiveness of various hybrid aggression tools. The research is based on scientific publications, materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and European analytical services. Results of the study. It has been proved that the transformation of modern interstate conflicts takes place in the direction of acquiring by them signs of hybridization, provided that it is understood as a process of using various means of pressure, predominantly of non-military nature. It is argued that the urgent task in the context of counteracting hybrid threats is to assess the probability of multiplicative effects from the implementation of their combinations. The military, economic and information spheres have been identified as key dimensions of the hybrid confrontation. The specifics of hybrid threats in the economic sphere are those that would allow the country initiating the aggression to disguise its participation in the conflict, and the target country to obtain critical resources for the development of its economic system. The essence of synergy and cumulation effects is considered and their interpretation in the coordinates of hybrid warfare is given. The relevant effects are defined as multiplicative, that is, those that have a multiplier effect, providing accumulation (accumulation) and synergy (amplification) from the implementation of threats in different areas of hybrid confrontation. Practical implications. Assessing the likelihood of the multiplier effect of a variety of hybrid threats will focus on countering those combinations of threats that can have a significant impact on the political and economic system of the state of hybrid aggression. Value/originality. Justification and formalization of conditions for obtaining multiplicative (cumulative and synergistic) effects from the use of various hybrid confrontation tools.

COVID CRISIS AND TOURISM EVOLUTION IN SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: ADAPT TO REALITIES OR REINVENT THE FUTURE?

The health crisis has exerted a significant pressure on the global economic system, implicitly on the evolution of tourism, value chain creation and supply chains, generating shocks on various national economic sectors. In this context, the objective of the paper is to make a brief synoptic analysis on the evolution of the tourism sector in some EU countries. Two periods of time were considered - before the onset of the pandemic (2018-2019) and during the pandemic (in 2020). The results of the analysis confirm the specific trends of reducing the multiplicative effects that tourism has on the economy as well as the decrease, even contracting of the sector, a phenomenon identified through specific analyzed indicators.

National and regional type I and II input—output multipliers: Analysis of calculation methods

The main application of input—output models is the analysis and forecasting of impact that changes in the final consumption volume and composition have on the production structure. The paper presents results of type I and II multipliers calculation for national and regional (evidence from Moscow) economies based on the input—output tables for 2016 for aggregated economic activities. The attention is devoted first of all to structural aspects of multiplicative effects and to the analysis of the variability of regional multipliers calculation results depending on the approaches. To derive regional multipliers we apply location quotient-based approaches. We show that national type II (including induced effects) and regional multipliers estimations may be highly sensitive to the estimation technique choice. Results from such calculations should be interpreted with consideration to differences of the used techniques and their tendencies to under- or overestimate effects of the final consumption structural changes.

Parental Education and Left Lateral Orbitofrontal Cortical Activity during N-Back Task: An fMRI Study of American Adolescents

Introduction. The Orbitofrontal Cortex (OFC) is a cortical structure that has implications in cognition, memory, reward anticipation, outcome evaluation, decision making, and learning. As such, OFC activity correlates with these cognitive brain abilities. Despite research suggesting race and socioeconomic status (SES) indicators such as parental education may be associated with OFC activity, limited knowledge exists on multiplicative effects of race and parental education on OFC activity and associated cognitive ability. Purpose. Using functional brain imaging data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study, we tested the multiplicative effects of race and parental education on left lateral OFC activity during an N-Back task. In our study, we used a sociological rather than biological theory that conceptualizes race and SES as proxies of access to the opportunity structure and exposure to social adversities rather than innate and non-modifiable brain differences. We explored racial variation in the effect of parental educational attainment, a primary indicator of SES, on left lateral OFC activity during an N-Back task between Black and White 9–10 years old adolescents. Methods. The ABCD study is a national, landmark, multi-center brain imaging investigation of American adolescents. The total sample was 4290 9–10 years old Black or White adolescents. The independent variables were SES indicators, namely family income, parental education, and neighborhood income. The primary outcome was the average beta weight for N-Back (2 back versus 0 back contrast) in ASEG ROI left OFC activity, measured by functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) during an N-Back task. Ethnicity, age, sex, subjective SES, and family structure were the study covariates. For data analysis, we used linear regression models. Results. In White but not Black adolescents, parental education was associated with higher left lateral OFC activity during the N-Back task. In the pooled sample, we found a significant interaction between race and parental education on the outcome, suggesting that high parental education is associated with a larger increase in left OFC activity of White than Black adolescents. Conclusions. For American adolescents, race and SES jointly influence left lateral OFC activity correlated with cognition, memory, decision making, and learning. Given the central role of left lateral OFC activity in learning and memory, our finding calls for additional research on contextual factors that reduce the gain of SES for Black adolescents. Cognitive inequalities are not merely due to the additive effects of race and SES but also its multiplicative effects.

The Implications of Functional Form Choice on Model Misspecification in Longitudinal Survey Mode Adjustments

In this chapter, we develop theory and methodology to support mode adjustment and hindcasting/forecasting in the presence of different possible mode effect types, including additive effects and odds-multiplicative effects. Mode adjustment is particularly important if the ultimate goal is to report one aggregate estimate of response parameters, and also to allow for comparison to historical surveys performed with different modes. Effect type has important consequences for inferential validity when the baseline response changes over time (i.e. when there is a time trend or time effect). We present a methodology to provide inference for additive and odds-multiplicative effect types, and demonstrate its performance in a simulation study. We also show that if the wrong effect type is assumed, the resulting inference can be invalid as confidence interval coverage is greatly reduced and estimates can be biased.

The Impact of Transportation on the Croatian Economy: The Input–Output Approach

The aim of this paper was to determine the economic impact of the transportation sector on the Croatian economy by using input–output analysis. According to the input–output tables for the Croatian economy for 2004, 2010, 2013, and 2015, output and gross value-added multipliers were calculated. The results of the conducted analysis indicated that the multiplicative effects of the transportation sector in Croatia were significant in the observed period, especially for the air transport sector. Furthermore, comparative multiplier analysis with selected European Union countries was performed to assess the Croatian transportation industry position from an international perspective. Lower output and gross value-added multipliers for the Croatian transportation sector imply that old European Union member states capitalized the transportation sector more for growth and development. The Croatian transportation sector recorded lower imported intermediate inputs, average domestic inputs, and higher value-added multipliers similar to new European Union members. Simulations based on multiplicative effects show that restrictions on movements and human contacts, imposed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, could induce a strong reduction in the economic activity of transport and other sectors that are included in the value-added chain of the transport industry.