scholarly journals Effect of Forecast Climate Changes on Water Needs of Giant Miscanthus Cultivated in the Kuyavia Region in Poland

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (20) ◽  
pp. 6628
Author(s):  
Stanisław Rolbiecki ◽  
Małgorzata Biniak-Pieróg ◽  
Andrzej Żyromski ◽  
Wiesława Kasperska-Wołowicz ◽  
Barbara Jagosz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Supplementary Irrigation ◽  
Giant Miscanthus ◽  
Climate Change Model ◽  
Crop Coefficients ◽  
The Impact

Giant miscanthus is a vigorously growing energy plant, popularly used for biofuels production. It is a grass with low soil and water requirements, although its productivity largely depends on complementary irrigation, especially in the first year of cultivation. The aim of the study was to assess the impact of the forecast climate changes, mainly air temperature increase, on the water needs of giant miscanthus during the growing season in 2021–2050 in the Kuyavia region (central Poland). The years 1981–2010 as the reference period were applied. The meteorological data was based on the regional climate change model RM5.1 with boundary conditions from the global ARPEGE model for the SRES A1B emission scenario. Crop evapotranspiration, calculated using the Penman-Monteith method and crop coefficients, was assumed as a measure of water needs. The study results showed that in view of the expected temperature changes, in the forecast period 2021–2050, the giant miscanthus water needs will increase by 10%. The highest monthly increase may occur in August (16%) and in September (23%). In the near future, the increase in water needs of giant miscanthus will necessitate the use of supplementary irrigation. Hence the results of this study may contribute to increasing the efficiency of water use, and thus to the rational management of irrigation treatments and plant energy resources in the Kuyavia region.

scholarly journals Climate Change Controls Phosphorus Transport from the Watershed into Lake Kinneret (Israel)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moshe Gophen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Lake Kinneret ◽  
Phosphorus Transport ◽  
Efficient Management ◽  
Hula Valley ◽  
Reclamation Project ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPart of the Kinneret watershed, the Hula Valley, was modified from wetlands – shallow lake for agricultural cultivation. Enhancement of nutrient fluxes into Lake Kinneret was predicted. Therefore, a reclamation project was implemented and eco-tourism partly replaced agriculture. Since the mid-1980s, regional climate change has been documented. Statistical evaluation of long-term records of TP (Total Phosphorus) concentrations in headwaters and potential resources in the Hula Valley was carried out to identify efficient management design targets. Significant correlation between major headwater river discharge and TP concentration was indicated, whilst the impact of external fertilizer loads and 50,000 winter migratory cranes was probably negligible. Nevertheless, confirmed severe bdamage to agricultural crops carried out by cranes led to their maximal deportation and optimization of their feeding policy. Consequently, the continuation of the present management is recommended.

scholarly journals AI-Based Campus Energy Use Prediction for Assessing the Effects of Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soheil Fathi ◽  
Ravi S. Srinivasan ◽  
Charles J. Kibert ◽  
Ruth L. Steiner ◽  
Emre Demirezen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Energy Use Prediction ◽  
Campus Energy ◽  
The Impact

In developed countries, buildings are involved in almost 50% of total energy use and 30% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions. The operational energy needs of buildings are highly dependent on various building physical, operational, and functional characteristics, as well as meteorological and temporal properties. Besides physics-based energy modeling of buildings, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the capability to provide faster and higher accuracy estimates, given buildings’ historic energy consumption data. Looking beyond individual building levels, forecasting building energy performance can help city and community managers have a better understanding of their future energy needs, and to plan for satisfying them more efficiently. Focusing at an urban scale, this research develops a campus energy use prediction tool for predicting the effects of long-term climate change on the energy performance of buildings using AI techniques. The tool comprises four steps: Data Collection, AI Development, Model Validation, and Model Implementation, and can predict the energy use of campus buildings with 90% accuracy. We have relied on energy use data of buildings situated in the University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida (FL). To study the impact of climate change, we have used climate properties of three future weather files of Gainesville, FL, developed by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), represented based on their impact: median (year 2063), hottest (2057), and coldest (2041).

The Impact of Regional Climate Change on the Marine Ecosystem of the Western Antarctic Peninsula

2012 ◽  
pp. 91-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Clarke ◽  
David K. A. Barnes ◽  
Thomas J. Bracegirdle ◽  
Hugh W. Ducklow ◽  
John C. King ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Western Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Continentality and Oceanity in the Mid and High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edvinas Stonevicius ◽  
Gintautas Stankunavicius ◽  
Egidijus Rimkus
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Impact

The climate continentality or oceanity is one of the main characteristics of the local climatic conditions, which varies with global and regional climate change. This paper analyzes indexes of continentality and oceanity, as well as their variations in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1950–2015. Climatology and changes in continentality and oceanity are examined using Conrad’s Continentality Index (CCI) and Kerner’s Oceanity Index (KOI). The impact of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns on continentality/oceanity conditions was also evaluated. According to CCI, continentality is more significant in Northeast Siberia and lower along the Pacific coast of North America as well as in coastal areas in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean. However, according to KOI, areas of high continentality do not precisely correspond with those of low oceanity, appearing to the south and west of those identified by CCI. The spatial patterns of changes in continentality thus seem to be different. According to CCI, a statistically significant increase in continentality has only been found in Northeast Siberia. In contrast, in the western part of North America and the majority of Asia, continentality has weakened. According to KOI, the climate has become increasingly continental in Northern Europe and the majority of North America and East Asia. Oceanity has increased in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and in some parts of the Mediterranean region. Changes in continentality were primarily related to the increased temperature of the coldest month as a consequence of changes in atmospheric circulation: the positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) patterns has dominated in winter in recent decades. Trends in oceanity may be connected with the diminishing extent of seasonal sea ice and an associated increase in sea surface temperature.

scholarly journals REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES IN NORTH-EASTERN POLAND AND THEIR IMPACT ON MAIZE CROPS

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-18
Author(s):  
Leszek Kuchar ◽  
◽  
Zbigniew Szwejkowski ◽  
Bogumił Rychcik ◽  
Ewa Dragańska ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Maize Varieties

Aim of the study. Indication of changes in maize yield for grain and silage in connection with the observed climate changes. Material and methods.Data from field experiments of the experimental station of the University of Warmia and Mazury since 1972 as well as meteorological data (air temperatures and precipitation). Calculations using the trend analysis of original variables and determined indexes (GDD, SPI, Sielianinov index), weather-yield linear models and elements of spectral analysis. Results and conclusions. Changes in thermal conditions were demonstrated based on average air temperatures and the GDD index. There were no significant changes in atmospheric precipitation, showing a small periodicity of ten years, and no changes in monthly frequency with a deficit of precipitation (SPI analysis). It was demonstrated that changes in thermal conditions as well as the introduction of new maize varieties over fifty years significantly improved plant maturation, which resulted in a significant increase in grain weight. However, this did not affect the yield of maize for silage, neither in crop rotation nor in the monoculture system.

scholarly journals Evaluation of three different regional climate change scenarios for the application of a water balance model in a mesoscale catchment in Northeast Germany

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 57-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wegehenkel ◽  
U. Heinrich ◽  
H. Jochheim ◽  
K. C. Kersebaum ◽  
B. Röber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Future climate changes might have some impacts on catchment hydrology. An assessment of such impacts on e.g. ground water recharge is required to derive adaptation strategies for future water resources management. The main objective of our study was an analysis of three different regional climate change scenarios for a catchment with an area of 2415 km2 located in the Northeastern German lowlands. These data sets consist of the STAR-scenario with a time period 1951–2055, the WettReg-scenario covering the period 1961–2100 and the grid based REMO-scenario for the time span 1950–2100. All three data sets are based on the SRES scenario A1B of the IPCC. In our analysis, we compared the meteorological data for the control period obtained from the regional climate change scenarios with corresponding data measured at meteorological stations in the catchment. The results of this analysis indicated, that there are high differences between the different regional climate change scenarios regarding the temporal dynamics and the amount of precipitation. In addition, we applied a water balance model using input data obtained from the different climate change scenarios and analyzed the impact of these different input data on the model output groundwater recharge. The results of our study indicated, that these regional climate change scenarios due to the uncertainties in the projections of precipitation show only a limited suitability for hydrologic impact analysis used for the establishment of future concrete water management procedures in their present state.

The Impact of Climate Change on the River Jordan-Lake Kinneret (Israel) Ecosystem

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Moshe Gophen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Lake Water ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Nitrogen Deficiency ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Lake Kinneret ◽  
Ecosystem Structure ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Lake Water Level ◽  
The Impact

The long-term record of River Jordan-Lake Kinneret ecosystem indicates some significant climate condition changes: water temperature increase, decline in rainfall, and diminishing river discharges and lake water inflows accompanied by a reduction in nitrogen and a slight increase in phosphorus in the Lake upper layers (Epilimnion). Lake Water level decreased, Prolongation of Residence Time was documented, nutrient inputs and dynamics modifications resulting water quality deterioration. As a result of temperature elevation and nitrogen deficiency, the biomass of Peridinium spp significantly reduced and was replaced by Cyanobacterial biomass enhancement. Dryness trend expressed as enhanced frequency of drought seasons initiated an elevation of lake water salinity. It has been suggested that these changes in the phytoplankton community structure are caused by regional climate change. This study evaluates a multi-annual respective approach although the summer is the most critical. The objective of this research is evaluate the background of the ecosystem structure modification aimed at define future potential management design.

scholarly journals Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information

2019 ◽  
Vol 475 (2225) ◽  
pp. 20190013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theodore G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ethical Implications ◽  
Climate Change Information ◽  
The Impact

Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and what will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects of climate change, but is ineffective when it comes to aspects of climate change related to atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, atmospheric circulation strongly mediates climate impacts at the regional scale. In this way, the confidence framework, which focuses on avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises the prospect of committing type 2 errors (missed warnings). This has ethical implications. At the regional scale, however, where information on climate change has to be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability and exposure—most of which are highly uncertain—the societally relevant question is not ‘What will happen?’ but rather ‘What is the impact of particular actions under an uncertain regional climate change?’ This reframing of the question can cut the Gordian knot of regional climate change information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties—something that is generally not done in climate projections. It is argued that the storyline approach to climate change—the identification of physically self-consistent, plausible pathways—has the potential to accomplish precisely this.

Interpreting Results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX Ensembles in the Context of Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Projections

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (10) ◽  
pp. 2093-2106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambarish V. Karmalkar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTwo ensembles of dynamically downscaled climate simulations for North America—the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) featuring simulations for North America (NA-CORDEX)—are analyzed to assess the impact of using a small set of global general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) on representing uncertainty in regional projections. Selecting GCMs for downscaling based on their equilibrium climate sensitivities is a reasonable strategy, but there are regions where the uncertainty is not fully captured. For instance, the six NA-CORDEX GCMs fail to span the full ranges produced by models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in summer temperature projections in the western and winter precipitation projections in the eastern United States. Similarly, the four NARCCAP GCMs are overall poor at spanning the full CMIP3 ranges in seasonal temperatures. For the Southeast, the NA-CORDEX GCMs capture the uncertainty in summer but not in winter projections, highlighting one consequence of downscaling a subset of GCMs. Ranges produced by the RCMs are often wider than their driving GCMs but are sensitive to the experimental design. For example, the downscaled projections of summer precipitation are of opposite polarity in two RCM ensembles in some regions. Additionally, the ability of the RCMs to simulate observed temperature trends is affected by the internal variability characteristics of both the RCMs and driving GCMs, and is not systematically related to their historical performance. This has implications for adequately sampling the impact of internal variability on regional trends and for using model performance to identify credible projections. These findings suggest that a multimodel perspective on uncertainties in regional projections is integral to the interpretation of RCM results.

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