Use of Bayesian Modeling to Determine the Effects of Meteorological Conditions, Prescribed Burn Season, and Tree Characteristics on Litterfall of Pinus nigra and Pinus pinaster Stands

Research Highlights: Litterfall biomass after prescribed burning (PB) is significantly influenced by meteorological variables, stand characteristics, and the fire prescription. Some of the fire-adaptive traits of the species under study (Pinus nigra and Pinus pinaster) mitigate the effects of PB on litterfall biomass. The Bayesian approach, tested here for the first time, was shown to be useful for analyzing the complex combination of variables influencing the effect of PB on litterfall. Background and Objectives: The aims of the study focused on explaining the influence of meteorological conditions after PB on litterfall biomass, to explore the potential influence of stand characteristic and tree traits that influence fire protection, and to assess the influence of fire prescription and fire behavior. Materials and Methods: An experimental factorial design including three treatments (control, spring, and autumn burning), each with three replicates, was established at two experimental sites (N = 18; 50 × 50 m2 plots). The methodology of the International Co-operative Program on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP forests) was applied and a Bayesian approach was used to construct a generalized linear mixed model. Results: Litterfall was mainly affected by the meteorological variables and also by the type of stand and the treatment. The effects of minimum bark thickness and the height of the first live branch were random. The maximum scorch height was not high enough to affect the litterfall. Time during which the temperature exceeded 60 °C (cambium and bark) did not have an important effect. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrated that meteorological conditions were the most significant variables affecting litterfall biomass, with snowy and stormy days having important effects. Significant effects of stand characteristics (mixed and pure stand) and fire prescription regime (spring and autumn PB) were shown. The trees were completely protected by a combination of low-intensity PB and fire-adaptive tree traits, which prevent direct and indirect effects on litterfall. Identification of important variables can help to improve PB and reduce the vulnerability of stands managed by this method.

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The effect of low-intensity prescribed burns in two seasons on litterfall biomass and nutrient content

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf19132 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 29 (11) ◽

pp. 1029 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

J. Espinosa ◽

J. Madrigal ◽

V. Pando ◽

A. C. de la Cruz ◽

M. Guijarro ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prescribed Burning ◽

Nutrient Content ◽

Magnesium Content ◽

Pinus Nigra ◽

Mixed Stand ◽

Limiting Factor ◽

Delayed Response ◽

Pure Stand ◽

Clear Trend ◽

Low Intensity

Litterfall production and composition, fall pattern and nutrient content were studied in a mixed stand of Pinus nigra and Pinus pinaster (El Pozuelo), as well as in a pure stand of Pinus nigra (Beteta) in the Cuenca Mountains in order to determine the effect of two-season prescribed burning treatments. Needles were the most abundant fraction. Pinecone fraction decreased after burning in the mixed stand and the opposite occurred in the pure stand. The inflorescence fraction showed a decrease in the spring-burned plots at El Pozuelo and Beteta. Bark, branch and miscellaneous fractions were affected mainly by meteorological events. Low-intensity prescribed burning was not found to cause significant perturbations. The perturbation was mitigated over the years. An immediate effect of prescribed burning in spring was seen at El Pozuelo and Beteta, although it was more significant for the pure stand. The effect of prescribed burning in autumn at Beteta had a delayed response. As regards nutrient contents, no differences in carbon concentrations were detected. Overall, an increasing trend in N, P, K concentrations in needles after the burning treatment was found. Calcium was not a limiting factor. Magnesium content exhibited no clear trend.

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Tree Growth Response to Low-Intensity Prescribed Burning in Pinus nigra Stands: Effects of Burn Season and Fire Severity

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app11167462 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (16) ◽

pp. 7462

Author(s):

Juncal Espinosa ◽

Dario Martin-Benito ◽

Óscar Rodríguez de Rivera ◽

Carmen Hernando ◽

Mercedes Guijarro ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tree Growth ◽

Prescribed Burning ◽

Fire Severity ◽

Pinus Nigra ◽

Fire Season ◽

Pure Stand ◽

Growth Responses ◽

Individual Tree ◽

Tree Characteristics ◽

Significant Factors

The study of the short-term post-burn tree growth in a mixed stand of Pinus nigra and Pinus pinaster and in a pure stand of P. nigra in the Cuenca Mountains (Spain) will enable us to determine the disturbance of prescribed burning conducted in two seasons. Dendrochronological methods and mixed modelling were used to investigate whether tree growth responses are influenced by stand and tree characteristics, fire season and fire severity variables. The findings revealed that prescribed burning scarcely affected tree growth. The type of stand (mixed or pure) was not critical for tree growth. The individual tree characteristics were significant factors in all the scenarios studied. The inclusion of some fire severity variables for the first time in tree growth models showed that the maximum scorch height determined a main part of the variability of tree growth. The time during which the temperature was above 60 °C in the cambium region and temperature was above 300 °C in the bark surface were only significant factors after spring burnings. The litterfall one year after the prescribed burning was not a significant factor in any of the models. Overall, the findings confirm the characteristic resistance of P. nigra to surface fires and favor the potential application of prescribed burning programs for this species in the Mediterranean Basin.

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Short-term effects of prescribed burning on litterfall biomass in mixed stands of Pinus nigra and Pinus pinaster and pure stands of Pinus nigra in the Cuenca Mountains (Central-Eastern Spain)

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.291 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 618 ◽

pp. 941-951 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

J. Espinosa ◽

J. Madrigal ◽

A.C. De La Cruz ◽

M. Guijarro ◽

E. Jimenez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Pinus Pinaster ◽

Prescribed Burning ◽

Pinus Nigra ◽

Short Term ◽

Mixed Stands ◽

Central Eastern ◽

Short Term Effects

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Climatic Analysis of Wind Patterns to Enhance Sailors’ Performance during Races

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli9050080 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (5) ◽

pp. 80

Author(s):

Pietro Masino ◽

Roberto Bellasio ◽

Roberto Bianconi ◽

Angelo Besana ◽

Alessandro Pezzoli

Keyword(s):

Support Service ◽

Sport Performance ◽

Meteorological Conditions ◽

Meteorological Variables ◽

Wind Data ◽

Weather Research And Forecasting ◽

Innovative Method ◽

Combined Use ◽

The Impact ◽

Wind Patterns

The impact of environmental and meteorological conditions when dealing with sport performance has been demonstrated by several studies carried out in recent years. Among the meteorological variables with the greatest effect are temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind direction and speed. This research focused on analyzing and forecasting the wind patterns occurring in Enoshima Bay (Japan). In particular, the objective of this study was to provide support and guidance to sailors in the preparation of the race strategy, thanks to an in-depth knowledge of these meteorological variables. To do this, an innovative method was used. First, through the combined use of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and CALMET models, a simulation was performed, in order to reconstruct an offshore database of a recent 10-year period (2009–2018) over the race area, inside the bay. Subsequently, the verification of hind-cast was performed: the wind data measured at sea were compared with the data extracted from the CALMET database to verify the validity of the model. The verification was performed through three statistical indexes: BIAS, MAE, and PCC. The analysis showed mixed results, depending on the examined pattern, but made it possible to identify the days that best simulated the reality. Then, the wind data from the selected days were summarized and collected in plots, tables, and maps to design a decision support service (DSS), in order to provide athletes with the necessary information in a simple and effective way. In conclusion, we state that the application of this method extends beyond the sports field. Indeed, the study of wind patterns may be necessary in the design of actions to contrast and adapt to climate change, particularly in coastal areas.

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Meteorological Variables and Synoptic Patterns Associated with Air Pollutions in Eastern China during 2013–2018

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17072528 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (7) ◽

pp. 2528 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Zhujun Dai ◽

Duanyang Liu ◽

Kun Yu ◽

Lu Cao ◽

Youshan Jiang

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Eastern China ◽

Meteorological Condition ◽

Temperature Inversion ◽

Meteorological Conditions ◽

Meteorological Variables ◽

Synoptic Situation ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Air Pollutions ◽

Meteorological Elements

Steady meteorological conditions are important external factors affecting air pollution. In order to analyze how adverse meteorological variables affect air pollution, surface synoptic situation patterns and meteorological conditions during heavy pollution episodes are discussed. The results showed that there were 78 RPHPDs (regional PM2.5 pollution days) in Jiangsu, with a decreasing trend year by year. Winter had the most stable meteorological conditions, thus most RPHPDs appeared in winter, followed by autumn and summer, with the least days in spring. RPHPDs were classified into three patterns, respectively, as equalized pressure (EQP), advancing edge of a cold front (ACF) and inverted trough of low pressure (INT) according to the SLP (sea level pressure). RPHPDs under EQP were the most (51%), followed by ACF (37%); INT was the minimum (12%). Using statistical methods and meteorological condition data on RPHPDs from 2013 to 2017 to deduce the thresholds and 2018 as an independent dataset to validate the proposed thresholds, the threshold values of meteorological elements are summarized as follows. The probability of RPHPDs without rain was above 92% with the daily and hourly precipitation of all RPHPDs below 2.1 mm and 0.8 mm. Wind speed, RHs, inversion intensity(ITI), height difference in the temperature inversion(ITK), the lower height of temperature inversion (LHTI) and mixed-layer height (MLH) in terms of 25%–75% high probability range were respectively within 0.5–3.6 m s−1, 55%–92%, 0.7–4.0 °C 100 m −1, 42–576 m, 3–570 m, 200–1200 m. Two conditions should be considered: whether the pattern was EQP, ACF or INT and whether the eight meteorological elements are within the thresholds. If both criteria are met, PM2.5 particles tend to accumulate and air pollution diffusion conditions are poor. Unfavorable meteorological conditions are the necessary, but not sufficient condition for RPHPDs.

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Can prescribed burning improve resin yield in a tapped Pinus pinaster stand?

Industrial Crops and Products ◽

10.1016/j.indcrop.2018.07.049 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 124 ◽

pp. 91-98 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Aida Rodríguez-García ◽

Javier Madrigal ◽

David González-Sancho ◽

Luis Gil ◽

Mercedes Guijarro ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Pinus Pinaster ◽

Prescribed Burning

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Effects of meteorology and emissions on urban air quality: a quantitative statistical approach to long-term records (1999–2016) in Seoul, South Korea

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-18-16121-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (21) ◽

pp. 16121-16137 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

Jihoon Seo ◽

Doo-Sun R. Park ◽

Jin Young Kim ◽

Daeok Youn ◽

Yong Bin Lim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Air Quality ◽

South Korea ◽

Meteorological Conditions ◽

Meteorological Variables ◽

Urban Air ◽

Short Term ◽

Long Term Trends ◽

Local Emissions

Abstract. Together with emissions of air pollutants and precursors, meteorological conditions play important roles in local air quality through accumulation or ventilation, regional transport, and atmospheric chemistry. In this study, we extensively investigated multi-timescale meteorological effects on the urban air pollution using the long-term measurements data of PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, and O3 and meteorological variables over the period of 1999–2016 in Seoul, South Korea. The long-term air quality data were decomposed into trend-free short-term components and long-term trends by the Kolmogorov–Zurbenko filter, and the effects of meteorology and emissions were quantitatively isolated using a multiple linear regression with meteorological variables. In terms of short-term variability, intercorrelations among the pollutants and meteorological variables and composite analysis of synoptic meteorological fields exhibited that the warm and stagnant conditions in the migratory high-pressure system are related to the high PM10 and primary pollutant, while the strong irradiance and low NO2 by high winds at the rear of a cyclone are related to the high O3. In terms of long-term trends, decrease in PM10 (−1.75 µg m−3 yr−1) and increase in O3 (+0.88 ppb yr−1) in Seoul were largely contributed by the meteorology-related trends (−0.94 µg m−3 yr−1 for PM10 and +0.47 ppb yr−1 for O3), which were attributable to the subregional-scale wind speed increase. Comparisons with estimated local emissions and socioeconomic indices like gross domestic product (GDP) growth and fuel consumptions indicate probable influences of the 2008 global economic recession as well as the enforced regulations from the mid-2000s on the emission-related trends of PM10 and other primary pollutants. Change rates of local emissions and the transport term of long-term components calculated by the tracer continuity equation revealed a decrease in contributions of local emissions to the primary pollutants including PM10 and an increase in contributions of local secondary productions to O3. The present results not only reveal an important role of synoptic meteorological conditions on the episodic air pollution events but also give insights into the practical effects of environmental policies and regulations on the long-term air pollution trends. As a complementary approach to the chemical transport modeling, this study will provide a scientific background for developing and improving effective air quality management strategy in Seoul and its metropolitan area.

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