scholarly journals Simulation of Land-Use Changes Using the Partitioned ANN-CA Model and Considering the Influence of Land-Use Change Frequency

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 346
Author(s):  
Quanli Xu ◽  
Qing Wang ◽  
Jing Liu ◽  
Hong Liang
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Space Partitioning ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Ca Model ◽  
Conversion Rules

Land-use change is a typical geographic evolutionary process characterized by spatial heterogeneity. As such, the driving factors, conversion rules, and rate of change vary for different regions around the world. However, most cellular automata (CA) models use the same transition rules for all cells in the model space when simulating land-use change. Thus, spatial heterogeneity change is ignored in the model, which means that these models are prone to over- or under simulation, resulting in a large deviation from reality. An effective means of accounting for the influence of spatial heterogeneity on the quality of the CA model is to establish a partitioned model based on cellular space partitioning. This study established a partitioned, dual-constrained CA model using the area-weighted frequency of land-use change (AWFLUC) to capture its spatial heterogeneity. This model was used to simulate the land-use evolution of the Dianchi Lake watershed. First, the CA space was divided into subzones using a dual-constrained spatial clustering method. Second, an artificial neural network (ANN) was used to automatically acquire conversion rules to construct an ANN-CA model of land-use change. Finally, land-use changes were simulated using the ANN-CA model based on data from 2006 to 2016, and model reliability was validated. The experimental results showed that compared with the non-partitioned CA model, the partitioned counterpart was able to improve the accuracy of land-use change simulation significantly. Furthermore, AWFLUC is an important indicator of the spatial heterogeneity of land-use change. The shapes of the division spaces were more similar to reality and the simulation accuracy was higher when AWFLUC was considered as a land-use change characteristic.

Cellular automata for simulating land-use change with a constrained irregular space representation: A case study in Nanjing city, China

2020 ◽  
pp. 239980832094988
Author(s):  
Jie Zhu ◽  
Yizhong Sun ◽  
Shuyin Song ◽  
Jing Yang ◽  
Hu Ding
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Urban Space ◽  
Spatial Reasoning ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Space Representation ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Geographic Space ◽  
Ca Model

Traditional cell-based cellular automata (CA) models use a regular cellular grid to represent geographic space, and new approaches to CA models have explored the use of a vector representation of space instead of a regular grid to characterize urban space more realistically. However, less attention has been paid to modeling the interaction between the geospatial information and the irregular cells. To date, the majority of spatial boundaries have been created by individual agencies in an uncoordinated manner. As a consequence, the potential uses of the data collected for land-use change models are limited. In this paper, we propose a new vector-based CA model based on a new constrained irregular space representation using the theory of hierarchical spatial reasoning. For dividing the geographic space considering different items, first land patches are considered as the minimum division unit; then aggregation rules, including attribute, geometric and boundary barrier constraints, are defined; and finally different levels of spatial units are formed through land patches based on aggregation rules. The proposed model is used to simulate the land-use changes in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China. The performance validation and comparison illustrate the feasibility of the proposed space representation in a CA model. By using this model, it is expected that the use of the real spatial boundaries that are employed in urban planning could help provide a flexible paradigm to consider various drivers or constraints for realistically simulating land-use changes.

Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matheus Supriyanto Rumetna ◽  
Eko Sediyono ◽  
Kristoko Dwi Hartomo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Moran’S I ◽  
Complete Spatial Randomness ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
Global Moran’S I ◽  
Spatial Randomness

Abstract. Bantul Regency is a part of Yogyakarta Special Province Province which experienced land use changes. This research aims to assess the changes of shape and level of land use, to analyze the pattern of land use changes, and to find the appropriateness of RTRW land use in Bantul District in 2011-2015. Analytical methods are employed including Geoprocessing techniques and analysis of patterns of distribution of land use changes with Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I). The results of this study of land use in 2011, there are thirty one classifications, while in 2015 there are thirty four classifications. The pattern of distribution of land use change shows that land use change in 2011-2015 has a Complete Spatial Randomness pattern. Land use suitability with the direction of area function at RTRW is 24030,406 Ha (46,995406%) and incompatibility of 27103,115 Ha or equal to 53,004593% of the total area of Bantul Regency.Keywords: Geographical Information System, Land Use, Geoprocessing, Global Moran's I, Bantul Regency. Abstrak. Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I. Kabupaten Bantul merupakan bagian dari Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta yang mengalami perubahan tata guna lahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji perubahan bentuk dan luas penggunaan lahan, menganalisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan, serta kesesuaian tata guna lahan terhadap RTRW yang terjadi di Kabupaten Bantul pada tahun 2011-2015. Metode analisis yang digunakan antara lain teknik Geoprocessing serta analisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan dengan Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I). Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah penggunaan tanah pada tahun 2011, terdapat tiga puluh satu klasifikasi, sedangkan pada tahun 2015 terdapat tiga puluh empat klasifikasi. Pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan menunjukkan bahwa perubahan tata guna lahan tahun 2011-2015 memiliki pola Complete Spatial Randomness. Kesesuaian tata guna lahan dengan arahan fungsi kawasan pada RTRW adalah seluas 24030,406 Ha atau mencapai 46,995406 % dan ketidaksesuaian seluas 27103,115 Ha atau sebesar 53,004593 % dari total luas wilayah Kabupaten Bantul. Kata Kunci: Sistem Informasi Georafis, tata guna lahan, Geoprocessing, Global Moran’s I, Kabupaten Bantul.

A GIS-Based Irregular Cellular Automata Model of Land-Use Change

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 708-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Stevens ◽  
Suzana Dragićević
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Cellular Automata Model ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Asynchronous Development ◽  
Canadian City ◽  
Ca Model ◽  
Developing Area

This study proposes an alternative cellular automata (CA) model, which relaxes the traditional CA regular square grid and synchronous growth, and is designed for representations of land-use change in rural-urban fringe settings. The model uses high-resolution spatial data in the form of irregularly sized and shaped land parcels, and incorporates synchronous and asynchronous development in order to model more realistically land-use change at the land parcel scale. The model allows urban planners and other stakeholders to evaluate how different subdivision designs will influence development under varying population growth rates and buyer preferences. A model prototype has been developed in a common desktop GIS and applied to a rapidly developing area of a midsized Canadian city.

scholarly journals A Model-Based Tool for Assessing the Impact of Land Use Change Scenarios on Flood Risk in Small-Scale River Systems—Part 1: Pre-Processing of Scenario Based Flood Characteristics for the Current State of Land Use

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 102
Author(s):  
Frauke Kachholz ◽  
Jens Tränckner
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Impact

Land use changes influence the water balance and often increase surface runoff. The resulting impacts on river flow, water level, and flood should be identified beforehand in the phase of spatial planning. In two consecutive papers, we develop a model-based decision support system for quantifying the hydrological and stream hydraulic impacts of land use changes. Part 1 presents the semi-automatic set-up of physically based hydrological and hydraulic models on the basis of geodata analysis for the current state. Appropriate hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments are derived by a transfer from a calibrated model. In the regarded lowland river basins, parameters of surface and groundwater inflow turned out to be particularly important. While the calibration delivers very good to good model results for flow (Evol =2.4%, R = 0.84, NSE = 0.84), the model performance is good to satisfactory (Evol = −9.6%, R = 0.88, NSE = 0.59) in a different river system parametrized with the transfer procedure. After transferring the concept to a larger area with various small rivers, the current state is analyzed by running simulations based on statistical rainfall scenarios. Results include watercourse section-specific capacities and excess volumes in case of flooding. The developed approach can relatively quickly generate physically reliable and spatially high-resolution results. Part 2 builds on the data generated in part 1 and presents the subsequent approach to assess hydrologic/hydrodynamic impacts of potential land use changes.

scholarly journals Land-Use Change Impacts from Sustainable Hydropower Production in EU28 Region: An Empirical Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 4599
Author(s):  
Mohd Alsaleh ◽  
Muhammad Mansur Abdulwakil ◽  
Abdul Samad Abdul-Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Land Use ◽  
European Union ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Hydropower Production

Under the current European Union (EU) constitution approved in May 2018, EU countries ought to guarantee that estimated greenhouse-gas releases from land use, land-use change, or forestry are entirely compensated by an equivalent accounted removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air during the period between 2021 and 2030. This study investigates the effect of sustainable hydropower production on land-use change in the European Union (EU28) region countries during 1990–2018, using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). The results revealed that land-use change incline with an increase in hydropower energy production. In addition, economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and population density are found to be increasing land-use changes, while institutional quality is found to be decreasing land-use change significantly. The finding implies that land-use change in EU28 region countries can be significantly increased by mounting the amount of hydropower energy production to achieve Energy Union aims by 2030. This will finally be spread to combat climate change and environmental pollution. The findings are considered robust as they were checked with DOLS and pooled OLS. The research suggests that the EU28 countries pay attention to the share of hydropower in their renewable energy combination to minimize carbon releases. Politicians and investors in the EU28 region ought to invest further in the efficiency and sustainability of hydropower generation to increase its production and accessibility without further degradation of forest and agricultural conditions. The authorities of the EU28 region should emphasize on efficiency and sustainability of hydropower energy with land-use management to achieve the international commitments for climate, biodiversity, and sustainable development, reduce dependence on fossil fuel, and energy insecurity.

scholarly journals Land Use Dynamics and Optimization from 2000 to 2020 in East Guangdong Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3473
Author(s):  
Yong Lai ◽  
Guangqing Huang ◽  
Shengzhong Chen ◽  
Shaotao Lin ◽  
Wenjun Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Buffer Zones ◽  
Conflict Zones ◽  
Land Use Dynamics

Anthropogenic land-use change is one of the main drivers of global environmental change. China has been on a fast track of land-use change since the Reform and Opening-up policy in 1978. In view of the situation, this study aims to optimize land use and provide a way to effectively coordinate the development and ecological protection in China. We took East Guangdong (EGD), an underdeveloped but populous region, as a case study. We used land-use changes indexes to demonstrate the land-use dynamics in EGD from 2000 to 2020, then identified the hot spots for fast-growing areas of built-up land and simulated land use in 2030 using the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model. The results indicated that the cropland and the built-up land changed in a large proportion during the study period. Then we established the ecological security pattern (ESP) according to the minimal cumulative resistance model (MCRM) based on the natural and socioeconomic factors. Corridors, buffer zones, and the key nodes were extracted by the MCRM to maintain landscape connectivity and key ecological processes of the study area. Moreover, the study showed the way to identify the conflict zones between future built-up land expansion with the corridors and buffer zones, which will be critical areas of consideration for future land-use management. Finally, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on the research result.

scholarly journals A Cellular Automata Model for Integrated Simulation of Land Use and Transport Interactions

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 149
Author(s):  
Nuno Pinto ◽  
António P. Antunes ◽  
Josep Roca
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Urban Studies ◽  
Particle Swarm Algorithm ◽  
Cellular Automata Model ◽  
Integrated Simulation ◽  
The Road ◽  
Ca Model ◽  
The City

Cellular automata (CA) models have been used in urban studies for dealing with land use change. Transport and accessibility are arguably the main drivers of urban change and have a direct influence on land use. Land use and transport interaction models deal with the complexity of this relationship using many different approaches. CA models incorporate these drivers, but usually consider transport (and accessibility) variables as exogenous. Our paper presents a CA model where transport variables are endogenous to the model and are calibrated along with the land use variables to capture the interdependent complexity of these phenomena. The model uses irregular cells and a variable neighborhood to simulate land use change, taking into account the effect of the road network. Calibration is performed through a particle swarm algorithm. We present an application of the model to a comparison of scenarios for the construction of a ring road in the city of Coimbra, Portugal. The results show the ability of the CA model to capture the influence of change of the transport network (and thus in accessibility) in the land use dynamics.

The Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform: IEEM Platform Technical Guides: User Guide for the IEEM-enhanced Land Use Land Cover Change Model Dyna-CLUE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter H. Verburg ◽  
Žiga Malek ◽  
Sean P. Goodwin ◽  
Cecilia Zagaria
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Environmental Modeling ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Regional Modelling ◽  
Model Application ◽  
Climatic Regions ◽  
Single Region

The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects modeling framework (CLUE) was developed to simulate land use change using empirically quantified relations between land use and its driving factors in combination with dynamic modeling of competition between land use types. Being one of the most widely used spatial land use models, CLUE has been applied all over the world on different scales. In this document, we demonstrate how the model can be used to develop a multi-regional application. This means, that instead of developing numerous individual models, the user only prepares one CLUE model application, which then allocates land use change across different regions. This facilitates integration with the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform for subnational assessments and increases the efficiency of the IEEM and Ecosystem Services Modeling (IEEMESM) workflow. Multi-regional modelling is particularly useful in larger and diverse countries, where we can expect different spatial distributions in land use changes in different regions: regions of different levels of achieved socio-economic development, regions with different topographies (flat vs. mountainous), or different climatic regions (dry vs humid) within a same country. Accounting for such regional differences also facilitates developing ecosystem services models that consider region specific biophysical characteristics. This manual, and the data that is provided with it, demonstrates multi-regional land use change modeling using the country of Colombia as an example. The user will learn how to prepare the data for the model application, and how the multi-regional run differs from a single-region simulation.

scholarly journals Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Ward ◽  
H. Renssen ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts ◽  
R. T. van Balen ◽  
J. Vandenberghe
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Historical Sources

Abstract. In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m3 s−1) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m3 s−1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m3 s−1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m3 s−1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.

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