A Comprehensive Analysis of Hurricane Damage across the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic Coasts Using Geospatial Big Data

(1) Background: Hurricane events are expected to increase as a consequence of climate change, increasing their intensity and severity. Destructive hurricane activities pose the greatest threat to coastal communities along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Coasts in the conterminous United States. This study investigated the historical extent of hurricane-related damage, identifying the most at-risk areas of hurricanes using geospatial big data. As a supplement to analysis, this study further examined the overall population trend within the hurricane at-risk zones. (2) Methods: The Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model and the HURRECON model were used to estimate the geographical extent of the storm surge inundation and wind damage of historical hurricanes from 1950 to 2018. The modeled results from every hurricane were then aggregated to a single unified spatial surface to examine the generalized hurricane patterns across the affected coastal counties. Based on this singular spatial boundary coupled with demographic datasets, zonal analysis was applied to explore the historical population at risk. (3) Results: A total of 777 counties were found to comprise the “hurricane-prone coastal counties” that have experienced at least one instance of hurricane damage over the study period. The overall demographic trends within the hurricane-prone coastal counties revealed that the coastal populations are growing at a faster pace than the national average, and this growth puts more people at greater risk of hurricane hazards. (4) Conclusions: This study is the first comprehensive investigation of hurricane vulnerability encompassing the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts stretching from Texas to Maine over a long span of time. The findings from this study can serve as a basis for understanding the exposure of at-risk populations to hurricane-related damage within the coastal counties at a national scale.

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The current burden of Japanese encephalitis and the estimated impacts of vaccination: Combining estimates of the spatial distribution and transmission intensity of a zoonotic pathogen

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽

10.1371/journal.pntd.0009385 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (10) ◽

pp. e0009385

Author(s):

Sean M. Moore

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Japanese Encephalitis ◽

Vaccination Coverage ◽

Susceptible Population ◽

Incidence Data ◽

Force Of Infection ◽

Risk Areas ◽

At Risk Populations ◽

The Impact ◽

Combining Estimates

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a major cause of neurological disability in Asia and causes thousands of severe encephalitis cases and deaths each year. Although Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a WHO reportable disease, cases and deaths are significantly underreported and the true burden of the disease is not well understood in most endemic countries. Here, we first conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE to identify the areas suitable for sustained JEV transmission and the size of the population living in at-risk areas. We then estimated the force of infection (FOI) for JE-endemic countries from age-specific incidence data. Estimates of the susceptible population size and the current FOI were then used to estimate the JE burden from 2010 to 2019, as well as the impact of vaccination. Overall, 1,543.1 million (range: 1,292.6-2,019.9 million) people were estimated to live in areas suitable for endemic JEV transmission, which represents only 37.7% (range: 31.6-53.5%) of the over four billion people living in countries with endemic JEV transmission. Based on the baseline number of people at risk of infection, there were an estimated 56,847 (95% CI: 18,003-184,525) JE cases and 20,642 (95% CI: 2,252-77,204) deaths in 2019. Estimated incidence declined from 81,258 (95% CI: 25,437-273,640) cases and 29,520 (95% CI: 3,334-112,498) deaths in 2010, largely due to increases in vaccination coverage which have prevented an estimated 314,793 (95% CI: 94,566-1,049,645) cases and 114,946 (95% CI: 11,421-431,224) deaths over the past decade. India had the largest estimated JE burden in 2019, followed by Bangladesh and China. From 2010-2019, we estimate that vaccination had the largest absolute impact in China, with 204,734 (95% CI: 74,419-664,871) cases and 74,893 (95% CI: 8,989-286,239) deaths prevented, while Taiwan (91.2%) and Malaysia (80.1%) had the largest percent reductions in JE burden due to vaccination. Our estimates of the size of at-risk populations and current JE incidence highlight countries where increasing vaccination coverage could have the largest impact on reducing their JE burden.

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Millions More Americans Face Flood Risks Than Previously Thought

Eos ◽

10.1029/2018eo106321 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 99 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Oliver Wing ◽

Paul Bates ◽

Christopher Sampson ◽

Andrew Smith ◽

Joseph Fargione ◽

...

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Flood Risks ◽

Modeling Approach ◽

Risk Estimates ◽

Risk Areas ◽

The U.S

A different modeling approach fills large gaps in the U.S. government's flood risk estimates, revealing previously overlooked at-risk areas often surrounding small flood-prone streams.

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The current burden of Japanese encephalitis and the estimated impacts of vaccination: Combining estimates of the spatial distribution and transmission intensity of a zoonotic pathogen

10.1101/2021.04.08.21255086 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sean M. Moore

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Japanese Encephalitis ◽

Vaccination Coverage ◽

Susceptible Population ◽

Incidence Data ◽

Force Of Infection ◽

Risk Areas ◽

At Risk Populations ◽

The Impact ◽

Combining Estimates

AbstractJapanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a major cause of neurological disability in Asia and causes thousands of severe encephalitis cases and deaths each year. Although Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a WHO reportable disease, cases and deaths are significantly underreported and the true burden of the disease is not well understood in most endemic countries. Here, we first conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE to identify the areas suitable for sustained JEV transmission and the size of the population living in at-risk areas. We then estimated the force of infection (FOI) for JE-endemic countries from age-specific incidence data. Estimates of the susceptible population size and the current FOI were then used to estimate the JE burden from 2010 to 2019, as well as the impact of vaccination. Overall, 1.15 billion (range: 982.1-1543.1 million) people were estimated to live in areas suitable for endemic JEV transmission, which represents 28.0% (range: 24.0-37.7%) of the over four billion people living in countries with endemic JEV transmission. Based on the baseline number of people at risk of infection, there were an estimated 45,017 (95% CI: 13,579-146,375) JE cases and 16,319 (95% CI: 1,804-60,041) deaths in 2019. Estimated incidence declined from 61,879 (95% CI: 18,377-200,406) cases and 22,448 (95% CI: 2,470-83,588) deaths in 2010, largely due to increases in vaccination coverage which have prevented an estimated 214,493 (95% CI: 75,905-729,009) cases and 78,544 (95% CI: 8,243-325,755) deaths over the past decade. India had the largest estimated JE burden in 2019, followed by Bangladesh and China. From 2010-2019, we estimate that vaccination had the largest absolute impact in China, with 142,471 (95% CI: 56,208-484,294) cases and 52,338 (95% CI: 6,421-185,285) deaths prevented, while Taiwan (91.1%) and Malaysia (80.5%) had the largest percent reductions in JE burden due to vaccination. Our estimates of the size of at-risk populations and current JE incidence highlight countries where increasing vaccination coverage could have the largest impact on reducing their JE burden.Author SummaryJapanese encephalitis is a vector-transmitted, zoonotic disease that is endemic throughout a large portion of Asia. Vaccination has significantly reduced the JE burden in several formerly high-burden countries, but vaccination coverage remains limited in several other countries with high JE burdens. A better understanding of both the spatial distribution and the magnitude of the burden in endemic countries is critical for future disease prevention efforts. To estimate the number of people living in areas within Asia suitable for JEV transmission we conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE. We estimate that over one billion people live in areas suitable for local JEV transmission. We then combined these population-at-risk estimates with estimates of the force of infection (FOI) to model the national-level burden of JE (annual cases and deaths) over the past decade. Increases in vaccination coverage have reduced JE incidence from over 60,000 cases in 2010 to 45,000 cases in 2019. We estimate that vaccination has prevented over 214,000 cases and 78,000 deaths in the past decade. Our results also call attention to the countries, and high-risk areas within countries, where increases in vaccination coverage are most needed.

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Age and marital status predictors of binge alcohol use among adults with major depressive episode

10.31234/osf.io/e7w6y ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Areen Omary

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Alcohol Use ◽

Marital Status ◽

Depressive Episode ◽

Major Depressive Episode ◽

Age Groups ◽

Future Research ◽

Major Depressive ◽

Never Married ◽

At Risk Populations

Aims: This study aims to examine if age and marital status can predict the risk for binge alcohol use (BAU) among adults with a major depressive episode (MDE). Methods: Data from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration’s (SAMHSA) 2018 National Survey for Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) were analyzed. The unweighted sample included 6,999 adults representing a weighted population size of 33,900,452.122 in the US. Results and Conclusions: The findings of this retrospective research confirmed that age and marital status significantly predicted BAU in the past month among adults with MDE. Adults with MDE at higher risk for BAU were adults under the age of 50, adults who were never married, and adults who were divorced/separated. Special attention must be paid to those in age groups under 50, never married, and have been separated/divorced who are particularly at-risk for future alcohol abuse. Future research should consider examining additional potential confounders for BAU among other at-risk populations.

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We Don't Need No Education - Is the U.S. at Risk of Losing its Edge in Higher Education to China?

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.2761300 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Ann M. Murphy

Keyword(s):

Higher Education ◽

At Risk ◽

The U.S

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Prevention of HIV/AIDS/STIs among most at risk populations in Uganda

Journal of HIV & Retro Virus ◽

10.21767/2471-9676-c1-002 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 04 ◽

Author(s):

Christine Namukasa

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

At Risk Populations ◽

Most At Risk Populations ◽

Prevention Of Hiv ◽

Hiv Aids

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Coverage of immediate postpartum long-acting reversible contraception has improved birth intervals for at-risk populations

American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology ◽

10.1016/j.ajog.2019.11.1282 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 222 (4) ◽

pp. S886.e1-S886.e9 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Abigail Liberty ◽

Kimberly Yee ◽

Blair G. Darney ◽

Ana Lopez-Defede ◽

Maria I. Rodriguez

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Birth Intervals ◽

At Risk Populations ◽

Long Acting

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Babesiosis Occurrence among the U.S. Medicare Beneficiaries Ages 65 and Older, During 2006-2017: Overall, and by State and County of Residence

Open Forum Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/ofid/ofaa608 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mikhail Menis ◽

Barbee I Whitaker ◽

Michael Wernecke ◽

Yixin Jiao ◽

Anne Eder ◽

...

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

Rhode Island ◽

Parasitic Infection ◽

Medicare Beneficiaries ◽

Study Objective ◽

Diagnosis Codes ◽

Real World Evidence ◽

At Risk Populations ◽

Human Babesiosis ◽

The U.S

Abstract Background Human babesiosis is a mild-to-severe parasitic infection that poses health concerns especially in older and other at-risk populations. The study objective was to assess babesiosis occurrence among the U.S. Medicare beneficiaries, ages 65 and older, during 2006-2017. Methods Our retrospective claims-based study utilized Medicare databases. Babesiosis cases were identified using recorded diagnosis codes. The study estimated rates (per 100,000 beneficiary-years) overall, by year, diagnosis month, demographics, state and county of residence. Results Nationwide, 19,469 beneficiaries had babesiosis recorded, a rate of 6 per 100,000 person-years, ranging from 4 in 2006 to 9 in 2017 (p<0.05). The highest babesiosis rates were in: Massachusetts (62), Rhode Island (61), Connecticut (51), New York (30), and New Jersey (19). The highest rates by county were in: Nantucket, MA (1,089); Dukes, MA (236); Barnstable, MA (213); and Dutchess, NY (205). Increasing rates, from 2006 through 2017 (p<0.05), were identified in multiple states, including states previously considered non-endemic. New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont, Pennsylvania, and Delaware saw rates increase by several times. Conclusion Our 12-year study shows substantially increasing babesiosis diagnosis trends, with highest rates in well-established endemic states. It also suggests expansion of babesiosis infections in other states and highlights the utility of real-world evidence.

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Identifying subgroups within at-risk populations that drive late HIV diagnosis in a Southern U.S. state

International Journal of STD & AIDS ◽

10.1177/0956462420947567 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 095646242094756

Author(s):

Sabina O Nduaguba ◽

Kentya H Ford ◽

James P Wilson ◽

Kenneth A Lawson ◽

Robert L Cook

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Older Individuals ◽

Hiv Diagnosis ◽

Interaction Terms ◽

Late Hiv Diagnosis ◽

Increased Risk ◽

At Risk Populations ◽

Sex With Men ◽

Aids Diagnosis ◽

Racial Ethnic

We aimed to identify subgroups within age, racial/ethnic, and transmission categories that drive increased risk for late HIV diagnosis (LHD). A 1996–2013 retrospective study of HIV-diagnosed individuals (N = 77,844) was conducted. The proportion of individuals with LHD (AIDS diagnosis within 365 days of HIV diagnosis) was determined, stratified by age, race/ethnicity, and transmission category. Logistic regression with interaction terms was used to identify groups/subgroups at risk for LHD during 1996–2001, 2002–2007, and 2008–2013. Respectively, 78%, 27%, 38%, and 31% were male, White, Black, and Hispanic. Overall, 39% had LHD with a 6.7% reduction for each year increase (OR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.93–0.94, p < 0.01). Older age was significantly associated with increased odds of LHD (OR range = 1.90–4.55). Compared to their White counterparts, all Hispanic transmission categories (OR range = 1.31–2.58) and only Black female heterosexuals and men who have sex with men (MSM) (OR range = 1.14–1.33) had significantly higher odds of LHD during 1996–2001 and/or 2002–2007. Significance was limited to Hispanic MSM (all age categories), MSM/IDUs (30–59 years), and heterosexuals (18–29 years) and Black MSM (30–39 years) during 2008–2013. Older individuals and Hispanics (driven by MSM) are at increased risk for LHD. HIV testing interventions directed at seniors and Hispanic MSM can further reduce rates of LHD.

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