scholarly journals Estimating the COVID-19 Death Toll by Considering the Time-Dependent Effects of Various Pandemic Restrictions

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 1628
Author(s):  
Hoang Pham
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face

COVID-19, known as Coronavirus disease 2019, is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. As coronavirus restrictions ease and cause changes to social and business activities around the world, and in the United States in particular, including social distancing, reopening states, reopening schools, and the face mask mandates, COVID-19 outbreaks are on the rise in many states across the United States and several other countries around the world. The United States recorded more than 1.9 million new infections in July, which is nearly 36 percent of the more than 5.4 million cases reported nationwide since the pandemic began, including more than 170,000 deaths from the disease, according to data from Johns Hopkins University as of 16 August 2020. In April 2020, the author of this paper presented a model to estimate the number of deaths related to COVID-19, which assumed that there would be no significant change in the COVID-19 restrictions and guidelines in the coming days. This paper, which presents the evolved version of the previous model published in April, discusses a new explicit mathematical model that considers the time-dependent effects of various pandemic restrictions and changes related to COVID-19, such as reopening states, social distancing, reopening schools, and face mask mandates in communities, along with a set of selected indicators, including the COVID-19 recovered cases and daily new cases. We analyzed and compared the modeling results to two recent models based on several model selection criteria. The model could predict the death toll related to the COVID-19 virus in the United States and worldwide based on the data available from Worldometer. The results show the proposed model fit the data significantly better for the United States and worldwide COVID-19 data that were available on 16 August 2020. The results show very encouraging predictability that reflected the time-dependent effects of various pandemic restrictions for the proposed model. The proposed model predicted that the total number of U.S. deaths could reach 208,375 by 1 October 2020, with a possible range of approximately 199,265 to 217,480 deaths based on data available on 16 August 2020. The model also projected that the death toll could reach 233,840 by 1 November 2020, with a possible range of 220,170 to 247,500 American deaths. The modeling result could serve as a baseline to help decision-makers to create a scientific framework to quantify their guidelines related to COVID-19 affairs. The model predicted that the death toll worldwide related to COVID-19 virus could reach 977,625 by 1 October 2020, with a possible range of approximately 910,820 to 1,044,430 deaths worldwide based on data available on 16 August 2020. It also predicted that the global death toll would reach nearly 1,131,000 by 1 November 2020, with a possible range of 1,030,765 to 1,231,175 deaths. The proposed model also predicted that the global death toll could reach 1.47 million deaths worldwide as a result of the SARS CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19. We plan to apply or refine the proposed model in the near future to further study the COVID-19 death tolls for India and Brazil, where the two countries currently have the second and third highest total COVID-19 cases after the United States.

Toward Jerusalem: A journey of the eternal now (A Sermon)

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (1) ◽  
pp. 102-107
Author(s):  
Richard Francis Wilson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Justice ◽  
Martin Luther ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paul Tillich ◽  
Dietrich Bonhoeffer ◽  
As I Lay Dying ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Martin Luther King

This article is a theological-ethical Lenten sermon that attempts to discern the transcendent themes in the narrative of Luke 9-19 with an especial focus upon “setting the face toward Jerusalem” and the subsequent weeping over Jerusalem. The sermon moves from a passage from William Faulkner’s As I Lay Dying through a series of hermeneutical turns that rely upon insights from Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Martin Luther King, Jr., Will Campbell, Augustine, and Paul Tillich with the hope of illuminating what setting of the face on Jerusalem might mean. Tillich’s “eternal now” theme elaborates Augustine’s insight that memory and time reduce the present as, to paraphrase the Saint, that all we have is a present: a present remembered, a present experienced, and a present anticipated. The Gospel is a timeless message applicable to every moment in time and history. The sermon seeks to connect with recent events in the United States and the world that focus upon challenges to the ideals of social justice and political tyranny.

The Journey of Piotr and Kasia Walkowiak

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Erikson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
The United States ◽  
University Of Chicago ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
The University ◽  
Migrant Stream

This chapter tells the story of peasants from rural Poland who entered a migrant stream around the turn of the twentieth century that carried them, along with tens of millions of others, across a number of clearly marked national borderlines as well as a number of unmarked cultural ones. The peasants were a couple named Piotr and Kasia Walkowiak, and the words spoken by them as well as the events recalled here are based on the hundreds of letters and diaries gathered in the 1910s by two sociologists from the University of Chicago, W. I. Thomas and Florian Znaniecki. The chapter first describes the world into which Piotr and Kasia were born, focusing on family, village, and land. It then considers their journey, together with millions of other immigrants, and how they changed both the face of Europe and the face of the United States.

A Republic, If You Can Keep Its Elections Secure, Accurate, and Fair

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (6) ◽  
pp. 667-669
Author(s):  
Martha Kropf
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
The United States ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face

We have kept our republic through a variety of localized disasters and various problem elections. The research presented here highlights the field of “Election Science and Administration” (ESA). Research in our field maximize our probability of continuing to keep our republic—even in the face of a pandemic which is a national—and international challenge. As the United States and the world deal with the specter of a pandemic election, the growth of the scholarly field designed to advocate for transparency in data collection and to improve the quality of elections is more important than ever.

Notes from the Editors, June 2019

2019 ◽  
pp. c2-64
Author(s):  
The Editors
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bolivarian Revolution ◽  
Siege Warfare ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Warfare ◽  
The Face ◽  
Economic Warfare ◽  
Modern Form

buy this issue The situation in Venezuela has become extremely dire due to Washington's heightened economic warfare, its continuing attempts to engineer a political coup, and its growing threats of massive military intervention—all aimed at bringing down the Bolivarian Republic. The recent seizure of Venezuelan oil assets in the United States and its gold reserves in British banks, as well as the sanctioning of Venezuelan oil sales, have come on top of a long series of economic sanctions—beginning with the Obama administration and now intensified under Trump's—that constitute nothing less than a modern form of siege warfare, extended to food supplies and medicine. But the Venezuelan Revolution has managed to resist in the face of the economic and political warfare of the most powerful imperialist nation in the world, and the reasons why are to be found in the nature of the Bolivarian Revolution and the Venezuelan people themselves.

scholarly journals Predictive Modeling on the Number of Covid-19 Death Toll in the United States Considering the Effects of Coronavirus-Related Changes and Covid-19 Recovered Cases

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1140-1155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoang Pham
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
First Case ◽  
Staying At Home ◽  
At Home

COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. Many countries around the world implemented their own policies and restrictions designed to limit the spread of Covid-19 in recent months. Businesses and schools transitioned into working and learning remotely. In the United States, many states were under strict orders to stay home at least in the month of April. In recent weeks, there are some significant changes related restrictions include social-distancing, reopening states, and staying-at-home orders. The United States surpassed 2 million coronavirus cases on Monday, June 15, 2020 less than five months after the first case was confirmed in the country. The virus has killed at least 115,000 people in the United States as of Monday, June 15, 2020, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. With the recent easing of coronavirus-related restrictions and changes on business and social activity such as stay-at-home, social distancing since late May 2020 hoping to restore economic and business activities, new Covid-19 outbreaks are on the rise in many states across the country. Some researchers expressed concern that the process of easing restrictions and relaxing stay-at-home orders too soon could quickly surge the number of infected Covid-19 cases as well as the death toll in the United States. Some of these increases, however, could be due to more testing sites in the communities while others may be are the results of easing restrictions due to recent reopening and changed policies, though the number of daily death toll does not appear to be going down in recent days due to Covid-19 in the U.S. This raises the challenging question: • How can policy decision-makers and community leaders make the decision to implement public policies and restrictions and keep or lift staying-at-home orders of ongoing Covid-19 pandemic for their communities in a scientific way? In this study, we aim to develop models addressing the effects of recent Covid-19 related changes in the communities such as reopening states, practicing social-distancing, and staying-at-home orders. Our models account for the fact that changes to these policies which can lead to a surge of coronavirus cases and deaths, especially in the United States. Specifically, in this paper we develop a novel generalized mathematical model and several explicit models considering the effects of recent reopening states, staying-at-home orders and social-distancing practice of different communities along with a set of selected indicators such as the total number of coronavirus recovered and new cases that can estimate the daily death toll and total number of deaths in the United States related to Covid-19 virus. We compare the modeling results among the developed models based on several existing criteria. The model also can be used to predict the number of death toll in Italy and the United Kingdom (UK). The results show very encouraging predictability for the proposed models in this study. The model predicts that 128,500 to 140,100 people in the United States will have died of Covid-19 by July 4, 2020. The model also predicts that between 137,900 and 154,000 people will have died of Covid-19 by July 31, and 148,500 to 169,700 will have died by the end of August 2020, as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19 based on the Covid-19 death data available on June 13, 2020. The model also predicts that 34,900 to 37,200 people in Italy will have died of Covid-19 by July 4, and 36,900 to 40,400 people will have died by the end of August based on the data available on June 13, 2020. The model also predicts that between 43,500 and 46,700 people in the United Kingdom will have died of Covid-19 by July 4, and 48,700 to 51,900 people will have died by the end of August, as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19 based on the data available on June 13, 2020. The model can serve as a framework to help policy makers a scientific approach in quantifying decision-makings related to Covid-19 affairs.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and LGBTQ Emerging Adults: Risk in the Face of Social Distancing

2020 ◽  
pp. 216769682096869
Author(s):  
Barrett Scroggs ◽  
Heather A. Love ◽  
Chelsey Torgerson
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Alcohol Use ◽  
Emerging Adults ◽  
Minority Stress ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Face

The coronavirus pandemic that began in December 2019 (COVID-19) quickly spread globally with an increased transmission in the United States beginning in March 2020. Social distancing guidelines were instituted across the country, limiting contact individuals could have with others. This compared the mental health of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) emerging adults who completed the survey before ( n = 1,190) many social distancing guidelines went into effect with those who completed the survey after ( n = 705). Participants who participated in the survey after social distancing guidelines were initiated reported lower levels of hope for the future, higher levels of alcohol use, a lower sense of connection to and pride regarding the LGBTQ community, and a lower sense of minority stress. Results indicate a detrimental response to social distancing in the days immediately following the onset of such guidelines as confusion reigned and expectations changed day to day.

The United States’ Response to COVID-19: Learning through Reflection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nouraldeen Ibrahim ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
United States Government ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
States Government ◽  
The U.S

When analyzing the global humanitarian crisis known as the SARS-CoV-2 virus (which causes the disease COVID-19), it is important to analyze the response of the United States so it is possible to learn from any mistakes. Since a global pandemic was completely unprecedented to the United States government, it did not have a concrete plan or solution prepared to deal with the outbreak. COVID-19 exposed the flaws in the United State's ability to deal with pandemics which, consequently, has now led to the U.S. to have the highest death toll in the world.

Epilogue

2021 ◽  
pp. 125-130
Author(s):  
Jennifer Ratner-Rosenhagen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
First Century ◽  
Moral Communities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Diverse World ◽  
Ways Of Thinking ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
New Framework

‘Epilogue’ traces the turn-of-the-twenty-first century interest in globalization and its implication for addressing intellectual problems in the United States. The perils and possibilities of globalization for American life vexed thinkers on how globalization intensified nationalism around the world. Globalization was a new framework and scale for long-standing and familiar ways of thinking about the boundaries of moral communities. It also refashioned identities in the face of a diverse world and uncertain future.

General Arbitration Treaties

1912 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 595-600
Author(s):  
Richard Olney
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Joint Commission ◽  
Present Position ◽  
The Past ◽  
Official Position ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face

It is undoubtedly desirable, in the interest of the arbitration of international controversies, that at the next Hague Conference a form of treaty should be presented which, while covering all differences between states, shall steer clear of the difficulties which in the past have wrecked important treaties of that character. It is a matter in which the United States may be expected to lead, having by precept and example so often distinguished itself as a pioneer in movements tending to do away with war between nations. Facts must be looked in the face, however, and it is apparent that the present position of the United States with reference to this subject is not so advantageous as could be wished. No two countries of the world are so favorably situated for the purposes of an arbitration treaty between them inclusive of all differences as are Great Britain and the United States. Through racial, social, and commercial ties ever knitting them closely together, war between them has become almost unthinkable. Yet two trials for such a comprehensive treaty have failed and the official position of the United States to-day seems to be that there is a class of questions which is necessarily to be excluded from any general arbitration treaty. The class covers controversies described as affecting “the vital interests, the independence, or the honor” of the parties. In the English-American treaty of 1897 such controversies were disposed of by sending them to arbitration but so constituting the arbitral court that an award must have the assent of the representatives of the losing party or of a majority of them. In the treaty of 1911 it was sought to meet the difficulty by a joint commission of inquiry empowered to investigate and decide whether a question was or was not arbitrable and should or should not be arbitrated. But neither plan proved to be acceptable to the United States acting under the treaty-making power vested jointly in the President and Senate.

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