scholarly journals Examining the Effect of Host Recruitment Rates on the Transmission of Streptococcus suis in Nursery Swine Populations

Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elissa Giang ◽  
Benjamin M. Hetman ◽  
Jan M. Sargeant ◽  
Zvonimir Poljak ◽  
Amy L. Greer
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Streptococcus Suis ◽  
Recruitment Rate ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Demographic Parameters ◽  
High Turnover ◽  
Swine Pathogen

Streptococcus suis is a swine pathogen that is capable of causing severe outbreaks of disease in the nursery. Demographic parameters such as host recruitment rates can have profound effects on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and, thus, are critically important in high-turnover populations such as farmed swine. However, knowledge concerning the implications that such parameters have on S. suis disease control remains unknown. A stochastic mathematical model incorporating sub-clinically infected pigs was developed to capture the effects of changes in host recruitment rate on disease incidence. Compared to our base model scenario, our results show that monthly introduction of pigs into the nursery (instead of weekly introduction) reduced cumulative cases of S. suis by up to 59%, while increasing disease-removal rates alone averted up to 64% of cases. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the course of infection in sub-clinically infected pigs was highly influential and generated significant variability in the model outcomes. Our model findings suggest that modifications to host recruitment rates could be leveraged as a tool for S. suis disease control, however improving our understanding of additional factors that influence the risk of transmission would improve the precision of the model estimates.

scholarly journals Mathematical Analysis of Influenza A Dynamics in the Emergence of Drug Resistance

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline W. Kanyiri ◽  
Kimathi Mark ◽  
Livingstone Luboobi
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Drug Resistance ◽  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
Backward Bifurcation ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
High Morbidity

Every year, influenza causes high morbidity and mortality especially among the immunocompromised persons worldwide. The emergence of drug resistance has been a major challenge in curbing the spread of influenza. In this paper, a mathematical model is formulated and used to analyze the transmission dynamics of influenza A virus having incorporated the aspect of drug resistance. The qualitative analysis of the model is given in terms of the control reproduction number,Rc. The model equilibria are computed and stability analysis carried out. The model is found to exhibit backward bifurcation prompting the need to lowerRcto a critical valueRc∗for effective disease control. Sensitivity analysis results reveal that vaccine efficacy is the parameter with the most control over the spread of influenza. Numerical simulations reveal that despite vaccination reducing the reproduction number below unity, influenza still persists in the population. Hence, it is essential, in addition to vaccination, to apply other strategies to curb the spread of influenza.

scholarly journals Eigenvalue Elasticity and Sensitivity Analyses of the Transmission Dynamic Model of Corruption

2019 ◽  
pp. 30-34
Author(s):  
Adeyemi Olukayode Binuyo
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Transmission Dynamic ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Mathematical Model

In this paper, the eigenvalue elasticity and sensitivity values of the mathematical model of transmission dynamics of corruption were obtained and presented using the eigenvalue elasticity and sensitivity analysis methods. The parameter with the greatest impact on the mathematical model was determined using the methods. This parameter will assist the government on how to reduce and provide measures to eradicate corrupt practices among the populace. From the mathematical model of corruption presented, it was obtained that the effective contact rate of corruption has the highest value when using the eigenvalue elasticity and sensitivity analysis.

scholarly journals Wildlife disease elimination and density dependence

2012 ◽  
Vol 279 (1741) ◽  
pp. 3139-3145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Potapov ◽  
Evelyn Merrill ◽  
Mark A. Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Density Dependence ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Compensatory Growth ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Healthy Individuals ◽  
Wasting Disease ◽  
Population Reduction

Disease control by managers is a crucial response to emerging wildlife epidemics, yet the means of control may be limited by the method of disease transmission. In particular, it is widely held that population reduction, while effective for controlling diseases that are subject to density-dependent (DD) transmission, is ineffective for controlling diseases that are subject to frequency-dependent (FD) transmission. We investigate control for horizontally transmitted diseases with FD transmission where the control is via culling or harvest that is non-selective with respect to infection and the population can compensate through DD recruitment or survival. Using a mathematical model, we show that culling or harvesting can eradicate the disease, even when transmission dynamics are FD. Eradication can be achieved under FD transmission when DD birth or recruitment induces compensatory growth of new, healthy individuals, which has the net effect of reducing disease prevalence by dilution. We also show that if harvest is used simultaneously with vaccination, and there is high enough transmission coefficient, application of both controls may be less efficient than vaccination alone. We illustrate the effects of these control approaches on disease prevalence for chronic wasting disease in deer where the disease is transmitted directly among deer and through the environment.

scholarly journals Modeling the transmission dynamics of racism propagation with community resilience

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dejen Ketema Mamo
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Social Bonds ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Community Resilience ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Political Views ◽  
Spread Dynamics ◽  
Effective Community ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRacism spreading can have a vital influence on people’s lives, declining adherence, pretending political views, and recruiters’ socio-economical crisis. Besides, Web 2.0 technologies have democratized the creation and propagation of racist information, which facilitated the rapid spreading of racist messages. In this research work, the impact of community resilience on the spread dynamics of racism was assessed. To investigate the effect of resilience-building, new SERDC mathematical model was formulated and analyzed. The racism spread is under control where $$R_0<1$$ R 0 < 1 , whereas persist in the community whenever $$R_0>1$$ R 0 > 1 . Sensitivity analysis of the parameters value of the model are conducted. The rising of transmission and racial extremeness rate provides the prevalence of racism spread. Effective community resilience decline the damages, mitigate, and eradicate racism propagation. Theoretical analysis of the model are backed up by numerical results. Despite the evidence of numerical simulations, reducing the transmission and racial extremeness rate by improving social bonds and solidarity through community resilience could control the spread of racism.

scholarly journals Modeling and analysis of taeniasis and cysticercosis transmission dynamics in humans, pigs and cattle

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua A. Mwasunda ◽  
Jacob I. Irunde ◽  
Damian Kajunguri ◽  
Dmitry Kuznetsov
Keyword(s):  
Disease Control ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Recruitment Rate ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Sensitivity Indices ◽  
Sensitive Parameters

AbstractTaeniasis and cysticercosis pose a significant challenge to food safety and public health. Cysticercosis reduces the market value for pigs and cattle by making pork and beef unsafe for consumption. In this paper, a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of taeniasis and cysticercosis in humans, pigs and cattle is formulated and analyzed. The analysis shows that both the disease free equilibrium (DFE) and the endemic equilibrium (EE) exist. To study the dynamics of the diseases, we derived the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ R 0 by next generation matrix method. When $R_{0}< 1$ R 0 < 1 , the DFE is globally asymptotically stable whereas when $R_{0} > 1$ R 0 > 1 the EE is globally asymptotically stable. The normalized forward sensitivity index was used to determine sensitive parameters to the diseases. Humans’ recruitment rate, probability of humans’ infection with taeniasis and the defecation rate of taenia eggs by humans with taeniasis are the most positive sensitive parameters to diseases’ transmission whereas the human natural death rate is the most negative sensitive parameter. However, it is biologically unethical and not practical to increase human natural mortality rate for disease control. In this case, other parameters with negative sensitivity indices such as death rate of taenia eggs and proportions of unconsumed infected beef and pork can be considered for disease control. Generally, to control the diseases, more efforts should be made directed to reducing the number of humans who have taeniasis and defecate in the open environment. Also meat inspection and indoor keeping of cattle and pigs should be emphasized.

scholarly journals Volterra–Lyapunov Stability Analysis of the Solutions of Babesiosis Disease Model

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1272
Author(s):  
Fengsheng Chien ◽  
Stanford Shateyi
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Global Stability ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Lyapunov Stability ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Global Stability Analysis ◽  
Lyapunov Stability Analysis ◽  
Disease Free

This paper studies the global stability analysis of a mathematical model on Babesiosis transmission dynamics on bovines and ticks populations as proposed by Dang et al. First, the global stability analysis of disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is presented. Furthermore, using the properties of Volterra–Lyapunov matrices, we show that it is possible to prove the global stability of the endemic equilibrium. The property of symmetry in the structure of Volterra–Lyapunov matrices plays an important role in achieving this goal. Furthermore, numerical simulations are used to verify the result presented.

scholarly journals Modeling the spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) in a swine population: transmission dynamics, immunity information, and optimal control strategies

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Phithakdet Phoo-ngurn ◽  
Chanakarn Kiataramkul ◽  
Farida Chamchod
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Respiratory Syndrome Virus ◽  
Respiratory Problems ◽  
Prrs Virus ◽  
Swine Population ◽  
Swine Disease

Abstract Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is an important swine disease that affects many swine industries worldwide. The disease can cause reproductive failure and respiratory problems in a swine population. As vaccination is an important tool to control the spread of PRRS virus (PRRSV), we employ a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of PRRSV and the effects of immunity information, as well as vaccination control strategies. We also explore optimal vaccination coverage and vaccination rate to minimize the number of infected swines and vaccination efforts. Our results suggest that: (i) higher vaccination coverage and vaccination rate together with prior knowledge about immunity may help reduce the prevalence of PRRSV, and (ii) longer maximum vaccination efforts are required when swines stay longer in a population and it takes them longer time to recover from PRRS infections.

scholarly journals Sensitivity analysis of effective population size to demographic parameters in house sparrow populations

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 2449-2465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlene Waege Stubberud ◽  
Ane Marlene Myhre ◽  
Håkon Holand ◽  
Thomas Kvalnes ◽  
Thor Harald Ringsby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Effective Population Size ◽  
House Sparrow ◽  
Demographic Parameters ◽  
Effective Population

Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis for a mathematical model with time delays of leukemia

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doina Cândea ◽  
Andrei Halanay ◽  
Rodica Rădulescu ◽  
Rodica Tălmaci
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Time Delays

scholarly journals Vaccine refusal and the endgame: walking the last mile first

2013 ◽  
Vol 368 (1623) ◽  
pp. 20120148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diane S. Saint-Victor ◽  
Saad B. Omer
Keyword(s):  
Disease Control ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Disease Eradication ◽  
Vaccine Refusal ◽  
Last Mile ◽  
Low Levels

As multiple papers within this special issue illustrate, the dynamics of disease eradication are different from disease control. When it comes to disease eradication, ‘the last mile is longest’. For social and ecological reasons such as vaccine refusal, further ending incidence of a disease when it has reached low levels is frequently complex. Issues of non-compliance within a target population often influence the outcome of disease eradication efforts. Past eradication efforts confronted such obstacles towards the tail end of the campaign, when disease incidence was lowest. This article provides a comparison of non-compliance within polio, measles and smallpox campaigns, demonstrating the tendency of vaccine refusal to rise as disease incidence falls. In order to overcome one of the most intractable challenges to eradication, future disease eradication efforts must prioritize vaccine refusal from the start, i.e. ‘walk the last mile first’.

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