scholarly journals Demand Forecasting for Multichannel Fashion Retailers by Integrating Clustering and Machine Learning Algorithms

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1578
Author(s):  
I-Fei Chen ◽  
Chi-Jie Lu
Keyword(s):  
Demand Uncertainty ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fashion Industry ◽  
Fast Fashion ◽  
Product Demand ◽  
Learning Machines ◽  
Forecasting Method

In today’s rapidly changing and highly competitive industrial environment, a new and emerging business model—fast fashion—has started a revolution in the apparel industry. Due to the lack of historical data, constantly changing fashion trends, and product demand uncertainty, accurate demand forecasting is an important and challenging task in the fashion industry. This study integrates k-means clustering (KM), extreme learning machines (ELMs), and support vector regression (SVR) to construct cluster-based KM-ELM and KM-SVR models for demand forecasting in the fashion industry using empirical demand data of physical and virtual channels of a case company to examine the applicability of proposed forecasting models. The research results showed that both the KM-ELM and KM-SVR models are superior to the simple ELM and SVR models. They have higher prediction accuracy, indicating that the integration of clustering analysis can help improve predictions. In addition, the KM-ELM model produces satisfactory results when performing demand forecasting on retailers both with and without physical stores. Compared with other prediction models, it can be the most suitable demand forecasting method for the fashion industry.

scholarly journals Development of Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Smoking Cessation Outcome

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2584
Author(s):  
Cheng-Chien Lai ◽  
Wei-Hsin Huang ◽  
Betty Chia-Chen Chang ◽  
Lee-Ching Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Success Rate ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Classification And Regression Tree ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Smoking Cessation Outcome

Predictors for success in smoking cessation have been studied, but a prediction model capable of providing a success rate for each patient attempting to quit smoking is still lacking. The aim of this study is to develop prediction models using machine learning algorithms to predict the outcome of smoking cessation. Data was acquired from patients underwent smoking cessation program at one medical center in Northern Taiwan. A total of 4875 enrollments fulfilled our inclusion criteria. Models with artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), logistic regression (LoR), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), classification and regression tree (CART), and naïve Bayes (NB) were trained to predict the final smoking status of the patients in a six-month period. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC or ROC value) were used to determine the performance of the models. We adopted the ANN model which reached a slightly better performance, with a sensitivity of 0.704, a specificity of 0.567, an accuracy of 0.640, and an ROC value of 0.660 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.617–0.702) for prediction in smoking cessation outcome. A predictive model for smoking cessation was constructed. The model could aid in providing the predicted success rate for all smokers. It also had the potential to achieve personalized and precision medicine for treatment of smoking cessation.

Patient visit forecasting in an emergency department using a deep neural network approach

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (9) ◽  
pp. 2335-2348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milad Yousefi ◽  
Moslem Yousefi ◽  
Masood Fathi ◽  
Flavio S. Fogliatto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Neural Network Approach ◽  
Content Type

Purpose This study aims to investigate the factors affecting daily demand in an emergency department (ED) and to provide a forecasting tool in a public hospital for horizons of up to seven days. Design/methodology/approach In this study, first, the important factors to influence the demand in EDs were extracted from literature then the relevant factors to the study are selected. Then, a deep neural network is applied to constructing a reliable predictor. Findings Although many statistical approaches have been proposed for tackling this issue, better forecasts are viable by using the abilities of machine learning algorithms. Results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms statistical alternatives available in the literature such as multiple linear regression, autoregressive integrated moving average, support vector regression, generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations, seasonal ARIMA and combined ARIMA and linear regression. Research limitations/implications The authors applied this study in a single ED to forecast patient visits. Applying the same method in different EDs may give a better understanding of the performance of the model to the authors. The same approach can be applied in any other demand forecasting after some minor modifications. Originality/value To the best of the knowledge, this is the first study to propose the use of long short-term memory for constructing a predictor of the number of patient visits in EDs.

scholarly journals Fourier Analysis for Demand Forecasting in a Fashion Company

10.5772/56839 ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Fumi ◽  
Arianna Pepe ◽  
Laura Scarabotti ◽  
Massimiliano M. Schiraldi
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Fourier Method ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Fast Fourier Transform Algorithm ◽  
Fashion Industry ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Short Lifecycle ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

In the fashion industry, demand forecasting is particularly complex: companies operate with a large variety of short lifecycle products, deeply influenced by seasonal sales, promotional events, weather conditions, advertising and marketing campaigns, on top of festivities and socio-economic factors. At the same time, shelf-out-of-stock phenomena must be avoided at all costs. Given the strong seasonal nature of the products that characterize the fashion sector, this paper aims to highlight how the Fourier method can represent an easy and more effective forecasting method compared to other widespread heuristics normally used. For this purpose, a comparison between the fast Fourier transform algorithm and another two techniques based on moving average and exponential smoothing was carried out on a set of 4-year historical sales data of a €60+ million turnover medium- to large-sized Italian fashion company, which operates in the women's textiles apparel and clothing sectors. The entire analysis was performed on a common spreadsheet, in order to demonstrate that accurate results exploiting advanced numerical computation techniques can be carried out without necessarily using expensive software.

scholarly journals Using Metrics for Risk Prediction in Object-Oriented Software: A Cross-Version Validation

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Salim Moudache ◽  
◽  
Mourad Badri
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Object Oriented ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Empirical Risk ◽  
Severity Prediction ◽  
Object Oriented Metrics

This work aims to investigate the potential, from different perspectives, of a risk model to support Cross-Version Fault and Severity Prediction (CVFSP) in object-oriented software. The risk of a class is addressed from the perspective of two particular factors: the number of faults it can contain and their severity. We used various object-oriented metrics to capture the two risk factors. The risk of a class is modeled using the concept of Euclidean distance. We used a dataset collected from five successive versions of an open-source Java software system (ANT). We investigated different variants of the considered risk model, based on various combinations of object-oriented metrics pairs. We used different machine learning algorithms for building the prediction models: Naive Bayes (NB), J48, Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Multilayer Perceptron (ANN). We investigated the effectiveness of the prediction models for Cross-Version Fault and Severity Prediction (CVFSP), using data of prior versions of the considered system. We also investigated if the considered risk model can give as output the Empirical Risk (ER) of a class, a continuous value considering both the number of faults and their different levels of severity. We used different techniques for building the prediction models: Linear Regression (LR), Gaussian Process (GP), Random forest (RF) and M5P (two decision trees algorithms), SmoReg and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The considered risk model achieves acceptable results for both cross-version binary fault prediction (a g-mean of 0.714, an AUC of 0.725) and cross-version multi-classification of levels of severity (a g-mean of 0.758, an AUC of 0.771). The model also achieves good results in the estimation of the empirical risk of a class by considering both the number of faults and their levels of severity (intra-version analysis with a correlation coefficient of 0.659, cross-version analysis with a correlation coefficient of 0.486).

scholarly journals Comparison of machine learning algorithms applied to symptoms to determine infectious causes of death in children: national survey of 18,000 verbal autopsies in the Million Death Study in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Idicula-Thomas ◽  
Ulka Gawde ◽  
Prabhat Jha
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Verbal Autopsy ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Classification And Regression Tree ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Diarrhoeal Diseases

Abstract Background Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been successfully employed for prediction of outcomes in clinical research. In this study, we have explored the application of ML-based algorithms to predict cause of death (CoD) from verbal autopsy records available through the Million Death Study (MDS). Methods From MDS, 18826 unique childhood deaths at ages 1–59 months during the time period 2004–13 were selected for generating the prediction models of which over 70% of deaths were caused by six infectious diseases (pneumonia, diarrhoeal diseases, malaria, fever of unknown origin, meningitis/encephalitis, and measles). Six popular ML-based algorithms such as support vector machine, gradient boosting modeling, C5.0, artificial neural network, k-nearest neighbor, classification and regression tree were used for building the CoD prediction models. Results SVM algorithm was the best performer with a prediction accuracy of over 0.8. The highest accuracy was found for diarrhoeal diseases (accuracy = 0.97) and the lowest was for meningitis/encephalitis (accuracy = 0.80). The top signs/symptoms for classification of these CoDs were also extracted for each of the diseases. A combination of signs/symptoms presented by the deceased individual can effectively lead to the CoD diagnosis. Conclusions Overall, this study affirms that verbal autopsy tools are efficient in CoD diagnosis and that automated classification parameters captured through ML could be added to verbal autopsies to improve classification of causes of death.

scholarly journals An Ensemble Prediction Model for Potential Student Recommendation Using Machine Learning

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijuan Yan ◽  
Yanshen Liu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Student Performance ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Importance Analysis ◽  
Better Than

Student performance prediction has become a hot research topic. Most of the existing prediction models are built by a machine learning method. They are interested in prediction accuracy but pay less attention to interpretability. We propose a stacking ensemble model to predict and analyze student performance in academic competition. In this model, student performance is classified into two symmetrical categorical classes. To improve accuracy, three machine learning algorithms, including support vector machine (SVM), random forest, and AdaBoost are established in the first level and then integrated by logistic regression via stacking. A feature importance analysis was applied to identify important variables. The experimental data were collected from four academic years in Hankou University. According to comparative studies on five evaluation metrics (precision, recall, F1, error, and area   under   the   receiver   operating   characteristic   curve ( AUC ) in this analysis, the proposed model generally performs better than compared models. The important variables identified from the analysis are interpretable, they can be used as guidance to select potential students.

Demand forecasting at retail stage for selected vegetables: a performance analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1042-1063 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahul Priyadarshi ◽  
Akash Panigrahi ◽  
Srikanta Routroy ◽  
Girish Kant Garg
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Performance Analysis ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forecasting Models

Purpose The purpose of this study is to select the appropriate forecasting model at the retail stage for selected vegetables on the basis of performance analysis. Design/methodology/approach Various forecasting models such as the Box–Jenkins-based auto-regressive integrated moving average model and machine learning-based algorithms such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), random forest regression, gradient boosting regression (GBR) and extreme GBR (XGBoost/XGBR) were proposed and applied (i.e. modeling, training, testing and predicting) at the retail stage for selected vegetables to forecast demand. The performance analysis (i.e. forecasting error analysis) was carried out to select the appropriate forecasting model at the retail stage for selected vegetables. Findings From the obtained results for a case environment, it was observed that the machine learning algorithms, namely LSTM and SVR, produced the better results in comparison with other different demand forecasting models. Research limitations/implications The results obtained from the case environment cannot be generalized. However, it may be used for forecasting of different agriculture produces at the retail stage, capturing their demand environment. Practical implications The implementation of LSTM and SVR for the case situation at the retail stage will reduce the forecast error, daily retail inventory and fresh produce wastage and will increase the daily revenue. Originality/value The demand forecasting model selection for agriculture produce at the retail stage on the basis of performance analysis is a unique study where both traditional and non-traditional models were analyzed and compared.

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