Dynamic Prediction of Chilo suppressalis Occurrence in Rice Based on Deep Learning

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 2166
Author(s):  
Siqiao Tan ◽  
Yu Liang ◽  
Ruowen Zheng ◽  
Hongjie Yuan ◽  
Zhengbing Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stem Borer ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Chilo Suppressalis ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Dynamic Prediction ◽  
Rice Pest

(1) Background: The striped rice stem borer (SRSB), Chilo suppressalis, has severely diminished the yield and quality of rice in China. A timely and accurate prediction of the rice pest population can facilitate the designation of a pest control strategy. (2) Methods: In this study, we applied multiple linear regression (MLR), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), and deep auto-regressive (DeepAR) models in the dynamic prediction of the SRSB population occurrence during the crop season from 2000 to 2020 in Hunan province, China, by using weather factors and time series of related pests. (3) Results: This research demonstrated the potential of the deep learning method used in integrated pest management through the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of a reasonable validating dataset (the average coefficient of determination Rmean2 for the DeepAR, GBDT, and MLR models were 0.952, 0.500, and 0.166, respectively). (4) Conclusions: The DeepAR model with integrated ground-based meteorological variables, time series of related pests, and time features achieved the most accurate dynamic forecasting of the population occurrence quantity of SRSB as compared with MLR and GBDT.

scholarly journals “Dust in the Wind...”, Deep Learning Application to Wind Energy Time Series Forecasting

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaume Manero ◽  
Javier Béjar ◽  
Ulises Cortés
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
North America ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Learning Architectures

To balance electricity production and demand, it is required to use different prediction techniques extensively. Renewable energy, due to its intermittency, increases the complexity and uncertainty of forecasting, and the resulting accuracy impacts all the different players acting around the electricity systems around the world like generators, distributors, retailers, or consumers. Wind forecasting can be done under two major approaches, using meteorological numerical prediction models or based on pure time series input. Deep learning is appearing as a new method that can be used for wind energy prediction. This work develops several deep learning architectures and shows their performance when applied to wind time series. The models have been tested with the most extensive wind dataset available, the National Renewable Laboratory Wind Toolkit, a dataset with 126,692 wind points in North America. The architectures designed are based on different approaches, Multi-Layer Perceptron Networks (MLP), Convolutional Networks (CNN), and Recurrent Networks (RNN). These deep learning architectures have been tested to obtain predictions in a 12-h ahead horizon, and the accuracy is measured with the coefficient of determination, the R² method. The application of the models to wind sites evenly distributed in the North America geography allows us to infer several conclusions on the relationships between methods, terrain, and forecasting complexity. The results show differences between the models and confirm the superior capabilities on the use of deep learning techniques for wind speed forecasting from wind time series data.

Deep Learning for text in limted data settings

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pathikkumar Patel ◽  
Bhargav Lad ◽  
Jinan Fiaidhi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Sentiment Analysis ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Text Classification ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Text Data ◽  
Performance Levels

During the last few years, RNN models have been extensively used and they have proven to be better for sequence and text data. RNNs have achieved state-of-the-art performance levels in several applications such as text classification, sequence to sequence modelling and time series forecasting. In this article we will review different Machine Learning and Deep Learning based approaches for text data and look at the results obtained from these methods. This work also explores the use of transfer learning in NLP and how it affects the performance of models on a specific application of sentiment analysis.

The quantitative structure-activity relationships between GABAA receptor and ligands based on binding interface characteristic

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu Cheng ◽  
Yanrui Ding
Keyword(s):  
Gabaa Receptor ◽  
Molecular Descriptors ◽  
Qsar Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Receptor Interaction ◽  
Gamma Aminobutyric Acid ◽  
Quantitative Structure ◽  
Binding Interface ◽  
Structure Activity

Background: Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) methods based on machine learning play a vital role in predicting biological effect. Objective: Considering the characteristics of the binding interface between ligands and the inhibitory neurotransmitter Gamma Aminobutyric Acid A(GABAA) receptor, we built a QSAR model of ligands that bind to the human GABAA receptor. Method: After feature selection with Mean Decrease Impurity, we selected 53 from 1,286 docked ligand molecular descriptors. Three QSAR models are built using gradient boosting regression tree algorithm based on the different combinations of docked ligand molecular descriptors and ligand-receptor interaction characteristics. Results: The features of the optimal QSAR model contain both the docked ligand molecular descriptors and ligand-receptor interaction characteristics. The Leave-One-Out-Cross-Validation (Q2 LOO) of the optimal QSAR model is 0.8974, the Coefficient of Determination (R2) for the testing set is 0.9261, the Mean Square Error (MSE) is 0.1862. We also used this model to predict the pIC50 of two new ligands, the differences between the predicted and experimental pIC50 are -0.02 and 0.03 respectively. Conclusion : We found the BELm2, BELe2, MATS1m, X5v, Mor08v, and Mor29m are crucial features, which can help to build the QSAR model more accurately.

scholarly journals Load forecasting of refrigerated display cabinet based on CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM combined model

Open Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 360-374
Author(s):  
Yuan Pei ◽  
Lei Zhenglin ◽  
Zeng Qinghui ◽  
Wu Yixiao ◽  
Lu Yanli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Consumption Reduction

Abstract The load of the showcase is a nonlinear and unstable time series data, and the traditional forecasting method is not applicable. Deep learning algorithms are introduced to predict the load of the showcase. Based on the CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM combination algorithm, this paper builds a refrigerated display cabinet load forecasting model. Compared with the forecast results of other models, it finally proves that the CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM model has the highest load forecasting accuracy, and the model’s determination coefficient is 0.9105, which is obviously excellent. Compared with other models, the model constructed in this paper can predict the load of showcases, which can provide a reference for energy saving and consumption reduction of display cabinet.

scholarly journals Modeling of Lake Malombe Annual Fish Landings and Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE)

Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-55
Author(s):  
Rodgers Makwinja ◽  
Seyoum Mengistou ◽  
Emmanuel Kaunda ◽  
Tena Alemiew ◽  
Titus Bandulo Phiri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Annual Fish ◽  
Unit Effort ◽  
The Mean

Forecasting, using time series data, has become the most relevant and effective tool for fisheries stock assessment. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling has been commonly used to predict the general trend for fish landings with increased reliability and precision. In this paper, ARIMA models were applied to predict Lake Malombe annual fish landings and catch per unit effort (CPUE). The annual fish landings and CPUE trends were first observed and both were non-stationary. The first-order differencing was applied to transform the non-stationary data into stationary. Autocorrelation functions (AC), partial autocorrelation function (PAC), Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), square root of the mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), percentage standard error of prediction (SEP), average relative variance (ARV), Gaussian maximum likelihood estimation (GMLE) algorithm, efficiency coefficient (E2), coefficient of determination (R2), and persistent index (PI) were estimated, which led to the identification and construction of ARIMA models, suitable in explaining the time series and forecasting. According to the measures of forecasting accuracy, the best forecasting models for fish landings and CPUE were ARIMA (0,1,1) and ARIMA (0,1,0). These models had the lowest values AIC, BIC, RMSE, MAE, SEP, ARV. The models further displayed the highest values of GMLE, PI, R2, and E2. The “auto. arima ()” command in R version 3.6.3 further displayed ARIMA (0,1,1) and ARIMA (0,1,0) as the best. The selected models satisfactorily forecasted the fish landings of 2725.243 metric tons and CPUE of 0.097 kg/h by 2024.

scholarly journals A Machine Learning Method for Predicting Vegetation Indices in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1147
Author(s):  
Xiangqian Li ◽  
Wenping Yuan ◽  
Wenjie Dong
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Spatiotemporal Distribution ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Vegetation Growth ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Boosting Method

To forecast the terrestrial carbon cycle and monitor food security, vegetation growth must be accurately predicted; however, current process-based ecosystem and crop-growth models are limited in their effectiveness. This study developed a machine learning model using the extreme gradient boosting method to predict vegetation growth throughout the growing season in China from 2001 to 2018. The model used satellite-derived vegetation data for the first month of each growing season, CO2 concentration, and several meteorological factors as data sources for the explanatory variables. Results showed that the model could reproduce the spatiotemporal distribution of vegetation growth as represented by the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The predictive error for the growing season NDVI was less than 5% for more than 98% of vegetated areas in China; the model represented seasonal variations in NDVI well. The coefficient of determination (R2) between the monthly observed and predicted NDVI was 0.83, and more than 69% of vegetated areas had an R2 > 0.8. The effectiveness of the model was examined for a severe drought year (2009), and results showed that the model could reproduce the spatiotemporal distribution of NDVI even under extreme conditions. This model provides an alternative method for predicting vegetation growth and has great potential for monitoring vegetation dynamics and crop growth.

Exploring Weather Data to Predict Activity Attendance in Event-based Social Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Jifeng Zhang ◽  
Wenjun Jiang ◽  
Jinrui Zhang ◽  
Jie Wu ◽  
Guojun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Real Life ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
User Interest ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Event Duration ◽  
Outdoor Activities ◽  
Weather Factor ◽  
Event Based

Event-based social networks (EBSNs) connect online and offline lives. They allow online users with similar interests to get together in real life. Attendance prediction for activities in EBSNs has attracted a lot of attention and several factors have been studied. However, the prediction accuracy is not very good for some special activities, such as outdoor activities. Moreover, a very important factor, the weather, has not been well exploited. In this work, we strive to understand how the weather factor impacts activity attendance, and we explore it to improve attendance prediction from the organizer’s view. First, we classify activities into two categories: the outdoor and the indoor activities. We study the different ways that weather factors may impact these two kinds of activities. We also introduce a new factor of event duration. By integrating the above factors with user interest and user-event distance, we build a model of attendance prediction with the weather named GBT-W , based on the Gradient Boosting Tree. Furthermore, we develop a platform to help event organizers estimate the possible number of activity attendance with different settings (e.g., different weather, location) to effectively plan their events. We conduct extensive experiments, and the results show that our method has a better prediction performance on both the outdoor and the indoor activities, which validates the reasonability of considering weather and duration.

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