Determinants and Predictors of SMEs’ Financial Failure: A Logistic Regression Approach

This paper aims to identify the determinants and predictors of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ financial failure. Within this framework, we have opted for a quantitative method based on a sample of healthy and failing SMEs of a Moroccan bank. The main results of the different optimal models are obtained by the stepwise method of estimating logistic regression. These results show, in a normal economic context, that the variables that discriminate between healthy and failing SMEs are the main predictors of financial failure. Autonomy ratio, interest to sales, asset turnover, days in accounts receivable, and duration of trade payables are the variables that increase the probability of financial failure, while repayment capacity and return on assets reduce the probability of failure. These variables present an overall classification rate of healthy and failing SMEs of 91.11% three years before failure and of 84.44% two years and one year before failure.

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An Optimal Model of Financial Distress Prediction: A Comparative Study between Neural Networks and Logistic Regression

Risks ◽

10.3390/risks9110200 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 200

Author(s):

Youssef Zizi ◽

Amine Jamali-Alaoui ◽

Badreddine El Goumi ◽

Mohamed Oudgou ◽

Abdeslam El Moudden

Keyword(s):

Neural Networks ◽

Logistic Regression ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Type I ◽

Return On Assets ◽

Logistic Regression Models ◽

The Face ◽

One Year ◽

Type Ii Errors

In the face of rising defaults and limited studies on the prediction of financial distress in Morocco, this article aims to determine the most relevant predictors of financial distress and identify its optimal prediction models in a normal Moroccan economic context over two years. To achieve these objectives, logistic regression and neural networks are used based on financial ratios selected by lasso and stepwise techniques. Our empirical results highlight the significant role of predictors, namely interest to sales and return on assets in predicting financial distress. The results show that logistic regression models obtained by stepwise selection outperform the other models with an overall accuracy of 93.33% two years before financial distress and 95.00% one year prior to financial distress. Results also show that our models classify distressed SMEs better than healthy SMEs with type I errors lower than type II errors.

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Pengaruh Ukuran Perusahaan, ROA (Return On Asset), DER (Debt To Equity Ratio), Dan TATO (Total Asset Turn Over) Terhadap Perataan Laba

CICES ◽

10.33050/cices.v1i1.132 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 81-93

Author(s):

Sri Rahayu ◽

Elisa Elsera ◽

Eduard Hotman Purba

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Firm Size ◽

Goodness Of Fit ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Income Smoothing ◽

Total Asset ◽

Goodness Of Fit Test ◽

Return On Assets ◽

Asset Turnover ◽

Equity Ratio

This study aims to analyze the influence of the firm size, ROA (Return on Assets), DER (Debt To Equity Ratio), and Total Asset Turnover for income smoothing, either partially or simultaneously. Variabels used in the study as independent variabels are firm size, ROA (Return on Assets), DER (Debt To Equity Ratio), and Total Asset Turnover. While the dependent variabel is income smoothing. The population in this study are all companies manufacturing food and beverage field are listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange year of 2008-2011, as many as 14 companies, with a total sample of 8 companies that passed the stage purposive sampling. Analysis techniques that will be used this research is logistic regression to obtain an overall picture of the relationship between one variabel with another variabel. Processing is done by using logistic regression with SPSS version 19. Independent variabels used in this study are firm size, ROA (Return on Assets), DER (Debt To Equity Ratio), and Total Asset Turnover and income smoothing as the dependent variabel. The data analysis used in this study were descriptive statistics, assessing model fit,-2loglikehood, Cox's and Snell's R square nagekerke's R square, Hosmer and Lemeshow's goodness-of-fit test, and 2 x 2 classification tables. The test results in this study show that the simultaneous testing and retesting or separate company size (X1) significantly influence income smoothing (Y), while ROA (Return on Assets) (X2), DER (Debt To Equity Ratio) (X3) , and Total Asset Turnover (X4) does not have a significant impact on income smoothing (Y) as the dependent variabel.

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Logit business failure prediction in V4 countries

Engineering Management in Production and Services ◽

10.2478/emj-2019-0033 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 54-64 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Marek Durica ◽

Katarina Valaskova ◽

Katarina Janoskova

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Failure Prediction ◽

Predictive Ability ◽

Binary Logistic Regression ◽

Business Failure ◽

Data Set ◽

Prediction Ability ◽

Regression Approach ◽

High Prediction ◽

One Year

Abstract The paper presents the creation of the model that predicts the business failure of companies operating in V4 countries. Based on logistic regression analysis, significant predictors are identified to forecast potential business failure one year in advance. The research is based on the data set of financial indicators of more than 173 000 companies operating in V4 countries for the years 2016 and 2017. A stepwise binary logistic regression approach was used to create a prediction model. Using a classification table and ROC curve, the prediction ability of the final model was analysed. The main result is a model for business failure prediction of companies operating under the economic conditions of V4 countries. Statistically significant financial parameters were identified that reflect the impending failure situation. The developed model achieves a high prediction ability of more than 88%. The research confirms the applicability of the logistic regression approach in business failure prediction. The high predictive ability of the created model is comparable to models created by especially sophisticated artificial intelligence approaches. The created model can be applied in the economies of V4 countries for business failure prediction one year in advance, which is important for companies as well as all stakeholders.

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Perceived Effectiveness of Random Testing for Alcohol and Drugs in the Australian Aviation Community

Aviation Psychology and Applied Human Factors ◽

10.1027/2192-0923/a000031 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 72-81

Author(s):

Christina M. Rudin-Brown ◽

Eve Mitsopoulos-Rubens ◽

Michael G. Lenné

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Online Survey ◽

Random Testing ◽

Regression Analyses ◽

Perceived Effectiveness ◽

Student Pilots ◽

Alcohol And Drugs ◽

Positive Attitudes ◽

One Year ◽

Alcohol And Other Drugs

Random testing for alcohol and other drugs (AODs) in individuals who perform safety-sensitive activities as part of their aviation role was introduced in Australia in April 2009. One year later, an online survey (N = 2,226) was conducted to investigate attitudes, behaviors, and knowledge regarding random testing and to gauge perceptions regarding its effectiveness. Private, recreational, and student pilots were less likely than industry personnel to report being aware of the requirement (86.5% versus 97.1%), to have undergone testing (76.5% versus 96.1%), and to know of others who had undergone testing (39.9% versus 84.3%), and they had more positive attitudes toward random testing than industry personnel. However, logistic regression analyses indicated that random testing is more effective at deterring AOD use among industry personnel.

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A multilevel logistic regression approach to studying faking

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e518532013-120 ◽

2007 ◽

Author(s):

David M. LaHuis ◽

Derek A. Copeland

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Multilevel Logistic Regression ◽

Regression Approach

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High Risk of One-year Stroke Recurrence in Patients with Younger Age and Prior History of Ischemic Stroke

Current Neurovascular Research ◽

10.2174/1567202616666190618164528 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (3) ◽

pp. 250-257 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jiann-Der Lee ◽

Ya-Han Hu ◽

Meng Lee ◽

Yen-Chu Huang ◽

Ya-Wen Kuo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Ischemic Stroke ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽

Stroke Recurrence ◽

Prior History ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽

Cart Analysis ◽

Younger Age ◽

History Of ◽

One Year

Background and Purpose: Recurrent ischemic strokes increase the risk of disability and mortality. The role of conventional risk factors in recurrent strokes may change due to increased awareness of prevention strategies. The aim of this study was to explore the potential risk factors besides conventional ones which may help to affect the advances in future preventive concepts associated with one-year stroke recurrence (OSR). Methods: We analyzed 6,632 adult patients with ischemic stroke. Differences in clinical characteristics between patients with and without OSR were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analyses. Results: Among the study population, 525 patients (7.9%) had OSR. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that male sex (OR 1.243, 95% CI 1.025 – 1.506), age (OR 1.015, 95% CI 1.007 - 1.023), and a prior history of ischemic stroke (OR 1.331, 95% CI 1.096 – 1.615) were major factors associated with OSR. CART analysis further identified age and a prior history of ischemic stroke were important factors for OSR when classified the patients into three subgroups (with risks of OSR of 8.8%, 3.8%, and 12.5% for patients aged > 57.5 years, ≤ 57.5 years/with no prior history of ischemic stroke, and ≤ 57.5 years/with a prior history of ischemic stroke, respectively). Conclusions: Male sex, age, and a prior history of ischemic stroke could increase the risk of OSR by multivariate logistic regression analysis, and CART analysis further demonstrated that patients with a younger age (≤ 57.5 years) and a prior history of ischemic stroke had the highest risk of OSR.

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AB1065 VISIT COMPLIANCE IN PATIENTS WITH FAMILIAL MEDITERRANEAN FEVER: RESULTS FROM A GAZI UNIVERSITY FMF COHORT

Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases ◽

10.1136/annrheumdis-2020-eular.4675 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽

pp. 1822.1-1822

Author(s):

R. Bilici Salman ◽

A. Avanoğlu Güler ◽

H. Satiş ◽

H. Karadeniz ◽

H. Babaoglu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Family History ◽

Familial Mediterranean Fever ◽

Predictive Factors ◽

Severity Score ◽

Comorbid Disease ◽

Rheumatology Clinic ◽

Mediterranean Fever ◽

One Year

Background:Follow-up in all rheumatologic patients is critical, particularly Familial Mediterranean Fever (FMF). Current recommendations for all experts by the EULAR state that patients with FMF should be evaluated 6-monthly intervals to monitore the character and frequency of the attacks and the acute phase response. Disease-related complications such as amyloidosis can beasymptomaticand need only a careful follow-up.Objectives:to quantify this phenomenon and to find predictive factors of visit compliance in patients with FMF.Methods:The study included 474 adult patients with a diagnosis of FMF who followed at the outpatient rheumatology clinic of tertiary university hospital, from January 2018 to December 2018. . Demographic, socioeconomic data, familiy history, comorbid disease, medication history, characteristics, the International Severity Score for FMF (ISSF),autoinflammatory disease damage index (ADDI) were recorded. Visit compliance was defined as the presence of two visits in the outpatient rheumatology clinic for FMF last one year for the purposes set out in EULAR suggestion.Those who had fewer than two visits in the last one year were considered noncompliant.Results:230 (48.5%) were compliant while 244 (51.5 %) patients were noncompliant with their rheumatology visit. Both compliant and noncompliant patients had similar median age and disease duration. Female sex and being married was increased the visit compliance.The results of the logistic regression model exploring factors associated with compliance indicated that presence of family history in parents, absence of family history in sibling, treatment with biologic agents, other drug using,presence of more than 2 attacks except fever and adequate medical care were important predictors of visit compliance.Conclusion:In conclusion, if FMF patients visit compliance increase, their functionality, medication adherence and quality of life will increase and flares and complication of disease can decrease. Thus, we highlight some recommendations for FMF specialist, patients and health care providers to improve outcomes.Table 2.Multivariate logistic regression analysis for predictive factors of visit compliance of the patients with FMF, n=430Adj. OR%95 CI**pFamily history in parents(positive history vs negative)1,81,0-3,10.03Family history in sibling(negative history vs positive)1,91,2-3,10.004Comorbid disease status1,30,7-2,50.32Treatment(anakinra&canakinumab vs colchicine)3,71,7-8,20.001Drug using(other drugs vs FMF drugs)2,21,1-4,40.01More than 2 attacks except fever2,31,2-4,00.004Chronic peripheral arthritis2,30,8-6,60.10Proteinuria2,20,7-6,70.14Adequate medical care1,91,2-3,10.003Number of index flare within last 12-month0,90,9-1,00.38ISSF severity score0,80,7-1,10,30Disclosure of Interests:None declared

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OP0034 DOES THE RISK OF VENOUS THROMBOEMBOLISM VARY WITH DISEASE ACTIVITY IN RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS?

Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases ◽

10.1136/annrheumdis-2020-eular.353 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽

pp. 23.2-24

Author(s):

V. Molander ◽

H. Bower ◽

J. Askling

Keyword(s):

Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽

Logistic Regression ◽

Venous Thromboembolism ◽

Disease Activity ◽

Das28 Score ◽

Logistic Regression Models ◽

Highly Active ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Das28 Remission ◽

One Year

Background:Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are at increased risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE), including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) (1). Several established risk factors of VTE, such as age, immobilization and comorbid conditions, occur more often patients with RA (2). In addition, inflammation may in itself also increase VTE risk by upregulating procoagolatory factors and causing endothelial damage (3). Recent reports indicate an increased risk of VTE in RA patients treated with JAK-inhibitors (4), pointing to the need to better understand how inflammation measured as clinical RA disease activity influences VTE risk.Objectives:To investigate the relationship between clinical RA disease activity and incidence of VTE.Methods:Patients with RA were identified from the Swedish Rheumatology Quality Register (SRQ) between July 1st2006 and December 31st2017. Clinical rheumatology data for these patients were obtained from the visits recorded in SRQ, and linked to national registers capturing data on VTE events and comorbid conditions. For each such rheumatologist visit, we defined a one-year period after the visit and determined whether a VTE event had occurred within this period or not. A visit followed by a VTE event was categorized as a case, all other visits were used as controls. Each patient could contribute to several visits. The DAS28 score registered at the visit was stratified into remission (0-2.5) vs. low (2.6-3.1), moderate (3.2-5.1) and high (>5.1) disease activity. Logistic regression with robust cluster standard errors was used to estimate the association between the DAS28 score and VTE.Results:We identified 46,311 patients with RA who contributed data from 320,094 visits. Among these, 2,257 visits (0.7% of all visits) in 1345 unique individuals were followed by a VTE within the one-year window. Of these, 1391 were DVT events and 866 were PE events. Figure 1 displays the absolute probabilities of a VTE in this one-year window, and odds ratios for VTE by each DAS28 category, using DAS28 remission as reference. The one-year risk of a VTE increased from 0.5% in patients in DAS28 remission, to 1.1% in patients with DAS28 high disease activity (DAS28 above 5.1). The age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio for a VTE event in highly active RA compared to RA in remission was 2.12 (95% CI 1.80-2.47). A different analysis, in which each patient could only contribute to one visit, yielded similar results.Figure 1.Odds ratios (OR) comparing the odds of VTE for DAS28 activity categories versus remission. Grey estimates are from unadjusted logistic regression models, black estimates are from logistic regression models adjusted for age and sex. Absolute one-year risk of VTE are estimated from unadjusted models.Conclusion:This study demonstrates a strong association between clinical RA inflammatory activity as measured through DAS28 and risk of VTE. Among patients with high disease activity one in a hundred will develop a VTE within the coming year. These findings highlight the need for proper VTE risk assessment in patients with active RA, and confirm that patients with highly active RA, such as those recruited to trials for treatment with new drugs, are already at particularly elevated risk of VTE.References:[1]Holmqvist et al. Risk of venous thromboembolism in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and association with disease duration and hospitalization. JAMA. 2012;308(13):1350-6.[2]Cushman M. Epidemiology and risk factors for venous thrombosis. Semin Hematol. 2007;44(2):62-9.[3]Xu J et al. Inflammation, innate immunity and blood coagulation. Hamostaseologie. 2010;30(1):5-6, 8-9.[4]FDA. Safety trial finds risk of blood clots in the lungs and death with higher dose of tofacitinib (Xeljanz, Xeljanz XR) in rheumatoid arthritis patients; FDA to investigate. 2019.Acknowledgments:Many thanks to all patients and rheumatologists persistently filling out the SRQ.Disclosure of Interests:Viktor Molander: None declared, Hannah Bower: None declared, Johan Askling Grant/research support from: JA acts or has acted as PI for agreements between Karolinska Institutet and the following entities, mainly in the context of the ARTIS national safety monitoring programme of immunomodulators in rheumatology: Abbvie, BMS, Eli Lilly, Merck, MSD, Pfizer, Roche, Samsung Bioepis, Sanofi, and UCB Pharma

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