scholarly journals Liquidity Synchronization, Its Determinants and Outcomes under Economic Growth Volatility: Evidence from Emerging Asian Economies

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Syeda Hina Zaidi ◽  
Ramona Rupeika-Apoga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Market Index ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
Growth Volatility

This study investigates the country-level determinants of liquidity synchronization and degrees of liquidity synchronization during economic growth volatility. As a non-diversifiable risk factor, liquidity co-movement shock spreads market-wide and thus disrupts the overall functioning of the financial market. Firms in Asian markets operate in legal and regulatory environments distinct from those of firms analyzed in the previous literature. Comprehensive analyses of liquidity synchronicity in emerging markets are limited. A major knowledge gap pertaining to Asian emerging markets serves as the primary motivation for this study. Seven Asian emerging economies are selected from the MSCI emerging market index: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and the Philippines for analysis from 2010 to 2019. The empirical findings show high levels of liquidity synchronicity in weaker economic and financial environments with low GDP growth, high inflation and interest rates and underdeveloped financial systems taking the form of low levels of private credit. Liquidity synchronicity is also affected by poor investor protection, political instability, weak rule of law and government ineffectiveness. Moreover, levels of liquidity synchronicity are higher in a period of economic growth volatility.

scholarly journals Liquidity Synchronization, its Determinants and Outcomes under Economic Growth Volatility: Evidence from Emerging Asian Economies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syeda Hina Zaidi ◽  
Ramona Rupeika-Apoga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Market Index ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
Growth Volatility

This study investigates the country level determinants of liquidity synchronization and degrees of liquidity synchronization during economic growth volatility. As a non-diversifiable risk factor, liquidity co-movement shock spreads market wide and thus disrupts the overall functioning of the financial market. Firms in Asian markets operate in legal and regulatory environments distinct from those of firms analyzed in the previous literature. Comprehensive analyses of liquidity synchronicity in emerging markets are limited. A major knowledge gap pertaining to Asian emerging markets serves as the primary motivation for this study. Seven Asian emerging economies are selected from the MSCI emerging market index: Bangladesh, China, India, Indo-nesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and the Philippines for analysis from 2010 to 2019. The empirical findings show high levels of liquidity synchronicity in weaker economic and financial environments with low GDP growth, high inflation and interest rates and underdeveloped financial systems taking the form of low levels of private credit. Liquidity synchronicity is also affected by poor investor protection, political instability, weak rule of law and government ineffectiveness. Moreover, levels of liquidity synchronicity are higher in period of economic growth volatility.

scholarly journals An Ex-Post Investigation Of Interest Rate Parity In Asian Emerging Markets

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahram Adrangi ◽  
Kambiz Raffiee ◽  
Todd M. Shank
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Uncovered Interest Parity ◽  
Interest Rate Parity ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Interest Parity ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the uncovered interest parity theory for the three emerging markets of Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. The study provides evidence on the efficiency of the currency markets of these economies. In this paper we test for the uncovered interest parity because futures markets for currencies of most emerging markets are not well developed. Furthermore, short- term exchange rate supply and demand are often dominated by the uncovered international investments. Several statistical tests are applied in an attempt to detect evidence of uncovered interest parity. We find there is evidence that the currencies of higher interest rate emerging economies tend to depreciate in the future spot market. However, our test results indicate that this relationship does not support the uncovered interest parity strictly. Arbitrage opportunities remain for a longer periods than predicted by the uncovered interest parity. Furthermore, these abnormal gains are not random and could be predicted by a well designed econometric model. These findings are consistent with empirical findings surrounding uncovered interest parity for mature markets of the world.

scholarly journals The Effects from The U.S. and Japan to Emerging Stock Markets in Asia and Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
SDAG Lab
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Return Effect ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
The U.S

The subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. in mid-2008 suggests that stock prices volatility do spillover from one market to another after international stock markets downturn. The purpose of this paper is to examine the magnitude of return and volatility spillovers from developed markets (the U.S. and Japan) to eight emerging equity markets (India, China, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand) and Vietnam. Employing a mean and volatility spillover model that deals with the U.S. and Japan shocks and day effects as exogenous variables in ARMA(1,1), GARCH(1,1) for Asian emerging markets, the study finds some interesting findings. Firstly, the day effect is present on six out of nine studied markets, except for the Indian, Taiwanese and Philippine. Secondly, the results of return spillover confirm significant spillover effects across the markets with different magnitudes. Specifically, the U.S. exerts a stronger influence on the Malaysian, Philippine and Vietnamese market compared with Japan. In contrast, Japan has a higher spillover effect on the Chinese, Indian, Korea, and Thailand than the U.S. For the Indonesian market, the the return effect is equal. Finally, there is no evidence of a volatility effect of the U.S. and Japanese markets on the Asian emerging markets in this study.

Corruption and corporate risk-taking: evidence from emerging markets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Quoc Trung Tran
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Information Disclosure ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financing Cost ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Public Enemy ◽  
Corporate Risk

PurposeThis paper investigates the relationship between corruption and corporate risk-taking in emerging markets where corruption is considered as “public enemy number one.”Design/methodology/approachThe study measures corruption based on Corruption Control Index annually published by World Bank and examines how corruption affects corporate risk-taking in emerging markets covered in MSCI Emerging Market Index.FindingsWith a sample of 75,338 observations from 8,326 firms across 20 emerging stock markets during the period 2005–2016, the author finds that corruption negatively affects corporate risk-taking. Robustness checks with a reduced sample without China and India, alternatives of corruption measures, various measures of risk-taking and Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator also show consistent results. Moreover, additional analysis shows that information disclosure mitigates the effect of corruption on risk-taking.Originality/valueThe extant literature implies that corruption may decrease corporate risk-taking behavior through two channels including operational cost and debt financing cost.

Another rating upgrade is likely for Hungary soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Grade

Significance Hungary thereby regains investment-grade status, albeit at the lowest level, from being downgraded to 'junk' because of doubts about the government's policies and the high public debt burden. Hungary's improving creditworthiness, underpinned by its current account surplus and deleveraging in the banking sector, contrasts with the increasing strain on Poland's credit rating. Political risk has become a major driver of investor sentiment towards emerging markets. Impacts Emerging market assets have become more vulnerable as investors reprice US monetary policy. Futures markets are now assigning a 51% probability to another rise in US interest rates at or before the Federal Reserve's July meeting. Central Europe's government bond markets are being supported by the persistently dovish monetary policy stance of its central banks. This contrasts with Latin America, where inflationary pressures are forcing many central banks to raise rates. Brazil, Turkey, Poland and the Philippines are among several countries where political uncertainty is a key determinant of asset prices.

How much does valuation model choice matter? Target price accuracy of PE and DCF model in Asian emerging markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samie Ahmed Sayed
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Institutional Setting ◽  
Research Report ◽  
Target Price ◽  
Predictive Utility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
Dcf Model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to focus on valuation practices applied by analysts to derive target price forecasts in Asian emerging markets. The key objective of this study is to understand valuation model preference of analysts and to compare the predictive utility of target price forecasts derived through heuristics-driven price-to-earnings (PE) model and theoretically sound discounted cash flow (DCF) model. Design/methodology/approach Each research report in the sample of 502 research reports has been studied in detail to understand the dominant valuation model (PE or DCF) applied by analyst to derive target price forecasts. These research reports have been issued on stocks trading in seven emerging markets including India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines, Korea and Thailand during a six-year period starting 2008. Standard OLS and logit regression analysis has been performed to derive empirical findings. Findings The study finds that lower regulatory and reporting standards prevailing in emerging markets have no significant bearing on analyst choice of valuation model (PE or DCF). Time-series analysis suggests that emerging market analysts did not rely upon the usage of DCF model and preferred PE model during and immediately after the financial crisis of 2008. Multivariate regression results show weak evidence that PE model produces better results than DCF model after adjusting for the complexities associated with analyzing emerging market equities. The results imply that PE model, to some degree, is better equipped to capture market moods and sentiment in dynamic emerging markets rather than theoretically sound DCF model. Originality/value Most past studies on valuation model practices have focused on developed markets and this study provides a fresh perspective on analyst valuation model practices and performance in a new institutional setting of Asian emerging markets. The marginally better predictive utility of PE model as compared to DCF model is possibly a feature limited to Asian emerging markets.

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Inflation, and Monetary Policy in Pakistan: Preliminary Empirical Estimates

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (4II) ◽  
pp. 961-974 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed M. Khalid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Macroeconomic Imbalances ◽  
High Inflation

The recent increase in financial market volatility and the increased surge within developing world to become part of the global market have posed several challenges for policy-makers in the emerging markets to decide on a policy regime— monetary or exchange rate—that suits their needs and could also provide stability to the financial system. In view of the macroeconomic characteristics of these emerging economies, the choice of an appropriate policy becomes important to achieve certain targets such as sizeable domestic and foreign investment, reduced reliance on external borrowings, fiscal discipline, etc. These would require both price and exchange rate stability and country’s ability to deal with external shocks to maintain and achieve sustainable economic growth. Pakistan is no different and until recently had a history of macroeconomic imbalances with extremely high foreign (as well as domestic) debt, high budget and current account deficits, extremely low international reserves, high inflation, high nominal interest rates and low economic growth. The average economic growth over 40 years is around 4 percent. The main focus of any policy has been to achieve a sustainable growth pattern. However, due to a number of macroeconomic imbalances such as high budget deficits, extremely high indebtedness, low savings and investment rates, lack of fiscal discipline, undeveloped financial markets, unstable exchange rates along with high population growth and huge defence expenditure made this task almost impossible. Some of these macroeconomic imbalances contributed to episodes of high inflation and unemployment that the country experienced during most of the period since independence.

scholarly journals The effects from the United States and Japan to emerging stock markets in Asia and Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
AISDL
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
The U.S

The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States (U.S.) in mid-2008 suggests that stock prices volatility do spillover from one market to another after international stock markets downturn. The purpose of this paper is to examine the magnitude of return and volatility spillovers from developed markets (the U.S. and Japan) to eight emerging equity markets (India, China, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand) and Vietnam. Employing a mean and volatility spillover model that deals with the U.S. and Japan shocks and day effects as exogenous variables in ARMA(1,1), GARCH(1,1) for Asian emerging markets, the study finds some interesting findings. Firstly, the day effect is present on six out of nine studied markets, except for the Indian, Taiwanese and Philippine. Secondly, the results of return spillover confirm significant spillover effects across the markets with different magnitudes. Specifically, the U.S. exerts a stronger influence on the Malaysian, Philippine and Vietnamese market compared with Japan. In contrast, Japan has a higher spillover effect on the Chinese, Indian, Korea, and Thailand than the U.S. For the Indonesian market, the return effect is equal. Finally, there is no evidence of a volatility effect of the U.S. and Japanese markets on the Asian emerging markets in this study.

Impulse buying tendencies among Indian consumers: scale development and validation

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 205-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheetal Mittal ◽  
Deepak Chawla ◽  
Neena Sondhi
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Impulse Buying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
Impulse Buying Tendency

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize, develop and validate the measurement of impulse buying tendency India, an emerging market in Asia. Design/methodology/approach The conceptualization of India’s impulse buying tendency (IBT) has been based on a review of academic literature and an analysis of qualitative data from 30 observations at retail stores and 25 in-depth consumer interviews. The scale’s reliability and validity were assessed by content, convergent, discriminant, nomological and predictive validity using statistical techniques such as exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Findings A two-dimensional measure for IBT was developed for the Indian market, and then tested and validated using appropriate statistical measures. Research limitations/implications The study was skewed towards offline retail with both observations and interviews focusing on the bricks-and-mortar model. With e-retailing in India growing at a rapid rate, future research should extend the study and verify the IBT instrument’s validity specifically for impulse buying behaviour online. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, the present study is the first to bridge the gap in the existing research of impulse buying in context of emerging markets like India that are culturally, unlike both the western/developed and other Asian/emerging markets; and socio-economically, facing an interplay of variety of factors that are in a state of flux. The developed IBT scale would help by providing academics and practitioners with means of broadening their perspectives and understanding of retail behaviours in a context that is characterized by unprecedented consumer spending, increasing proliferation of modern retail and influence of a culture traditionally been given to simplicity and frugality.

scholarly journals The Case For Emerging Market Funds

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart Michelson ◽  
Elena Philipova ◽  
Petra Srotova
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Performance Studies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Wide Range

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This study investigates the performance of open-end actively managed emerging market mutual funds during the time period 1999 to 2005. Our analysis is cross-sectional and time series across a wide range of emerging markets. Previous research includes performance studies of international mutual funds and emerging market funds, but none of the previous studies were as broad nor as specific as the current study. Monthly fund returns are compared to three indices (emerging markets, MSCI, and S&amp;P 500 Index), using annualized returns, Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The results show that the emerging market funds outperform the MSCI Index and the S&amp;P 500 Index, but not the emerging market index. During the study period, an investor would have benefited by either investing in emerging market funds or the emerging market index. There is also a negative relationship between emerging market fund returns and turnover, and a positive relationship between fund returns and size.</span></span></p>

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