scholarly journals Projecting Future Vegetation Change for Northeast China Using CMIP6 Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 3531
Author(s):  
Wei Yuan ◽  
Shuang-Ye Wu ◽  
Shugui Hou ◽  
Zhiwei Xu ◽  
Hongxi Pang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Makers ◽  
Emissions Scenario

Northeast China lies in the transition zone from the humid monsoonal to the arid continental climate, with diverse ecosystems and agricultural land highly susceptible to climate change. This region has experienced significant greening in the past three decades, but future trends remain uncertain. In this study, we provide a quantitative assessment of how vegetation, indicated by the leaf area index (LAI), will change in this region in response to future climate change. Based on the output of eleven CMIP6 global climates, Northeast China is likely to get warmer and wetter in the future, corresponding to an increase in regional LAI. Under the medium emissions scenario (SSP245), the average LAI is expected to increase by 0.27 for the mid-century (2041–2070) and 0.39 for the late century (2071–2100). Under the high emissions scenario (SSP585), the increase is 0.40 for the mid-century and 0.70 for the late century, respectively. Despite the increase in the regional mean, the LAI trend shows significant spatial heterogeneity, with likely decreases for the arid northwest and some sandy fields in this region. Therefore, climate change could pose additional challenges for long-term ecological and economic sustainability. Our findings could provide useful information to local decision makers for developing effective sustainable land management strategies in Northeast China.

Projecting future vegetation change for northeast China using CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Yuan ◽  
Shuang-ye Wu ◽  
Shugui Hou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>This study aims to establish future vegetation changes in the east and central of northern China (ECNC), an ecologically sensitive region in the transition zonal from humid monsoonal to arid continental climate. The region has experienced significant greening in the past several decades. However, few studies exist on how vegetation will change with future climate change, and great uncertainties exist due to complex, and often spatially non-stationary, relationships between vegetation and climate. In this study, we first used historical NDVI and climate data to model this spatially variable relationship with Geographically Weighted Logit Regression. We found that temperature and precipitation could explain, on average, 43% of NDVI variance, and they could be used to model NDVI fairly well. We then establish future climate change using the output of 11 CMIP6 models for the medium (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for the mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100). The results show that for this region, both temperature and precipitation will increase under both scenarios. By late-century under SSP585, precipitation is projected to increase by 25.12% and temperature is projected to increase 5.87<sup>o</sup>C in ECNC. Finally, we used future climate conditions as input for the regression models to project future vegetation (indicated by NDVI). We found that NDVI will increase under climate change. By mid-century, the average NDVI in ECNC will increase by 0.024 and 0.021 under SSP245 and SSP585. By late-century, it will increase by 0.016 and 0.006 under SSP245 and SSP585 respectively. Although NDVI is projected to increase, the magnitude of increase is likely to diminish with higher emission scenarios, possibly due to the benefit of precipitation increase being gradually encroached by the detrimental effects of temperature increase. Moreover, despite the overall NDVI increase, the area likely to suffer vegetation degradation will also expands, particularly in the western part of ECNC. With higher emissions and later into the century, region with low NDVI is likely to shift and/or expand north-forward. Our results could provide important information on possible vegetation changes, which could help to develop effective management strategies to ensure ecological and economic sustainability in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Changes in Coastal Agricultural Land Use in Response to Climate Change: An Assessment Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Household Survey Data in Tien Hai District, Thai Binh Province, Vietnam

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 627
Author(s):  
Duong H. Nong ◽  
An T. Ngo ◽  
Hoa P. T. Nguyen ◽  
Thuy T. Nguyen ◽  
Lan T. Nguyen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Land Uses

We analyzed the agricultural land-use changes in the coastal areas of Tien Hai district, Thai Binh province, in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, using Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 data. We used the object-oriented classification method with the maximum likelihood algorithm to classify six types of land uses. The series of land-use maps we produced had an overall accuracy of more than 80%. We then conducted a spatial analysis of the 5-year land-use change using ArcGIS software. In addition, we surveyed 150 farm households using a structured questionnaire regarding the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and land uses, as well as farmers’ adaptation and responses. The results showed that from 2005 to 2020, cropland decreased, while aquaculture land and forest land increased. We observed that the most remarkable decreases were in the area of rice (485.58 ha), the area of perennial crops (109.7 ha), and the area of non-agricultural land (747.35 ha). The area of land used for aquaculture and forest increased by 566.88 ha and 772.60 ha, respectively. We found that the manifestations of climate change, such as extreme weather events, saltwater intrusion, drought, and floods, have had a profound impact on agricultural production and land uses in the district, especially for annual crops and aquaculture. The results provide useful information for state authorities to design land-management strategies and solutions that are economic and effective in adapting to climate change.

CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China

2014 ◽  
Vol 65 (12) ◽  
pp. 1267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Qian Fang ◽  
Quansheng Ge ◽  
Mengzi Zhou ◽  
Yumei Lin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Adaptive Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rice Cultivars ◽  
Rice Yields ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Global temperatures are rising, and concerns about the response of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. Adaptation is a key factor that will shape the severity of impacts of future climate change on food production. Based on actual meteorological, soil and agricultural management data at site scale, the CERES-Rice model, combined with the Regional Climate Model (RCM)-PRECIS, was used to simulate both the effects of climate change on rice yields and the efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China. The impact simulation showed that rice yield changes ranged from +0.1% to –44.9% (A2 scenario) and from –0.3% to –40.1% (B2 scenario) without considering CO2 fertilisation effects. When considering CO2 fertilisation effects, rice yield reductions induced by temperature increases were decreased at all sites. The CO2 fertilisation effects may partly offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice yields. Adaptive option results revealed that the adverse impacts of climate change on rice yields could be mitigated by advancing the planting dates, transplanting mid–late-maturing rice cultivars to replace early-maturing ones, and breeding new rice cultivars with high thermal requirements. Our findings provide insight into the possible impacts of climate change on rice production, and we suggest which adaptive strategies could be used to cope with future climate change, thus providing evidence-based suggestions for government policy on adaptive strategies.

scholarly journals A Decision Support System for Sustainable Forest Management and Ecosystem Service Provisioning at the Enterprise Scale

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Timothy Thrippleton ◽  
Clemens Blattert ◽  
Reinhard Mey ◽  
Jürgen Zell ◽  
Esther Thürig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Ecosystem Service ◽  
Sustainable Forest Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Service Provisioning

Forest management is becoming increasingly complex due to increasing demands in ecosystem service provisioning and future climate change impacts. For a sustainable forest management, scientifically well-founded decision support is therefore urgently required. Within the project SessFor, a decision support system for strategic planning at the forest enterprise level is being developed, based on the climate sensitive forest model SwissStandSim and initialized from forest inventory data. The system is currently applied to the forest enterprise Wagenrain (440 ha), located in the Swiss Plateau region. Indicators for biodiversity and ecosystem service provisioning (timber production, recreation value and carbon sequestration) are calculated for different management strategies and evaluated using a multi-criteria decision analysis. Preliminary results demonstrate the suitability of the system to evaluate ecosystem service provisioning under different management strategies and to identify the best management strategy, based on criteria defined by the forest manager. Furthermore, results show how the system can be used to assess developments for time-scales of 50–100 years under different climate change scenarios. In the ongoing project, the system will be applied to other case study regions, including mountain forests, which are of key importance in Switzerland and other alpine areas.

scholarly journals Plant Breeding and Management Strategies to Minimize the Impact of Water Scarcity and Biotic Stress in Cereal Crops under Mediterranean Conditions

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Néstor Pérez-Méndez ◽  
Cristina Miguel-Rojas ◽  
Jose Antonio Jimenez-Berni ◽  
David Gomez-Candon ◽  
Alejandro Pérez-de-Luque ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Biotic And Abiotic Stress ◽  
Fungal Disease Resistance ◽  
New Varieties ◽  
Rice Water ◽  
The Impact

Wheat and rice are two main staple food crops that may suffer from yield losses due to drought episodes that are increasingly impacted by climate change, in addition to new epidemic outbreaks. Sustainable intensification of production will rely on several strategies, such as efficient use of water and variety improvement. This review updates the latest findings regarding complementary approaches in agronomy, genetics, and phenomics to cope with climate change challenges. The agronomic approach focuses on a case study examining alternative rice water management practices, with their impact on greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity for ecosystem services. The genetic approach reviews in depth the latest technologies to achieve fungal disease resistance, as well as the use of landraces to increase the genetic diversity of new varieties. The phenomics approach explores recent advances in high-throughput remote sensing technologies useful in detecting both biotic and abiotic stress effects on breeding programs. The complementary nature of all these technologies indicates that only interdisciplinary work will ensure significant steps towards a more sustainable agriculture under future climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Making rainfed crops adapted to potential climate change impacts: Modeling sustainable options

2020 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 03002
Author(s):  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Abdelghani Chehbouni ◽  
Aziz Abouabdillah ◽  
Jamal Hallam ◽  
Fouad Moudden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Rainfed agriculture is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This situation is expected to worsen under most future climate projections, which might increase the risks linked to food security and economies which depend on it. Providing insights about the potential responses of rainfed crops to climate change will helps on designing future adaptation strategies. In this study, large amount of data and the agro-hydrological model SWAT have been used to investigate future climate change impacts on rainfed wheat and sunflower crops in a semiarid watershed in Morocco (R’dom watershed). Downscaled CORDEX climate projections were used in generating future plants growth simulation for R’dom watershed in the 2031 to 2050 horizon under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. The main results of climate change scenarios highlighted that R’dom watershed will undergo significant decrease in water resources availability with more impact under the scenario RCP 8.5. Water productivities of both studied crops could be lower by up to -21% in comparison with baseline situation. Different sustainable management strategies have been simulated using SWAT model under climate change context. The adopted approach succeeded in building up sustainable management strategies toward secured food security in the future.

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