scholarly journals Making rainfed crops adapted to potential climate change impacts: Modeling sustainable options

2020 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 03002
Author(s):  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Abdelghani Chehbouni ◽  
Aziz Abouabdillah ◽  
Jamal Hallam ◽  
Fouad Moudden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Rainfed agriculture is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This situation is expected to worsen under most future climate projections, which might increase the risks linked to food security and economies which depend on it. Providing insights about the potential responses of rainfed crops to climate change will helps on designing future adaptation strategies. In this study, large amount of data and the agro-hydrological model SWAT have been used to investigate future climate change impacts on rainfed wheat and sunflower crops in a semiarid watershed in Morocco (R’dom watershed). Downscaled CORDEX climate projections were used in generating future plants growth simulation for R’dom watershed in the 2031 to 2050 horizon under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. The main results of climate change scenarios highlighted that R’dom watershed will undergo significant decrease in water resources availability with more impact under the scenario RCP 8.5. Water productivities of both studied crops could be lower by up to -21% in comparison with baseline situation. Different sustainable management strategies have been simulated using SWAT model under climate change context. The adopted approach succeeded in building up sustainable management strategies toward secured food security in the future.

Chaos in Estimates of Climate Change Impacts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuele Massetti ◽  
Emanuele Di Lorenzo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Exogenous Forcing

<p>Estimates of physical, social and economic impacts of climate change are less accurate than usually thought because the impacts literature has largely neglected the internal variability of the climate system. Climate change scenarios are highly sensitive to the initial conditions of the climate system due the chaotic dynamics of weather. As the initial conditions of the climate system are unknown with a sufficiently high level of precision, each future climate scenario – for any given model parameterization and level of exogenous forcing – is only one of the many possible future realizations of climate. The impacts literature usually relies on only one realization randomly taken out of the full distribution of future climates. Here we use one of the few available large scale ensembles produced to study internal variability and an econometric model of climate change impacts on United States (US) agricultural productivity to show that the range of impacts is much larger than previously thought. Different ensemble members lead to significantly different impacts. Significant sign reversals are frequent. Relying only on one ensemble member leads to incorrect conclusions on the effect of climate change on agriculture in most of the US counties. Impacts studies should start using large scale ensembles of future climate change to predict damages. Climatologists should ramp-up efforts to run large ensembles for all GCMs, for at least the most frequently used scenarios of exogenous forcing.</p>

scholarly journals Global distribution of Sapindus habitats under current and future climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiming Liu ◽  
Lianchun Wang ◽  
Caowen Sun ◽  
Benye Xi ◽  
Doudou Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Abstract Sapindus (Sapindus L.) is a widely distributed economically important tree genus that provides biodiesel, biomedical and biochemical products. However, with climate change, deforestation, and economic development, Sapindus germplasm resources have been lost. Therefore, utilising historical environmental data and future climate projections from the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate database, we simulated the present and future global distributions of suitable habitats for Sapindus using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The estimated ecological thresholds for critical environmental factors were: a minimum temperature of 0–20°C in the coldest month, soil moisture levels of 40–140 mm, a mean temperature of 2–25°C in the driest quarter, a mean temperature of 19–28°C in the wettest quarter, and a soil pH of 5.6–7.6. The total suitable habitat area was 6059.97 × 104 km2, which was unevenly distributed across six continents. As greenhouse gas emissions increased over time, the area of suitable habitats contracted in lower latitudes and expanded in higher latitudes. Consequently, surveys and conservation should be prioritised in southern hemisphere areas which are in danger of becoming unsuitable. In contrast, other areas in northern and central America, China, and India can be used for conservation and large-scale cultivation in the future.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Daily Extreme Peak and Low Flows of Zenne Basin in Belgium

Hydrology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olkeba Leta ◽  
Willy Bauwens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
The Impact

Integrating hydrology with climate is essential for a better understanding of the impact of present and future climate on hydrological extremes, which may cause frequent flooding, drought, and shortage of water supply. This study assessed the impact of future climate change on the hydrological extremes (peak and low flows) of the Zenne river basin (Belgium). The objectives were to assess how climate change impacts basin-wide extreme flows and to provide a detailed overview of the impacts of four future climate change scenarios compared to the control (baseline) values. The scenarios are high (wet) summer (projects a future with high storm rain in summer), high (wet) winter (predicts a future with high rainfall in winter), mean (considers a future with intermediate climate conditions), and low (dry) (projects a future with low rainfall during winter and summer). These scenarios were projected by using the Climate Change Impact on HYDRological extremes perturbation tool (CCI-HYDR), which was (primarily) developed for Belgium to study climate change. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes by the 2050s (2036–2065) and the 2080s (2066–2095) by perturbing the historical daily data of 1961–1990. We found that the four climate change scenarios show quite different impacts on extreme peak and low flows. The extreme peak flows are expected to increase by as much as 109% under the wet summer scenario, which could increase adverse effects, such as flooding and disturbance of the riverine ecosystem functioning of the river. On the other hand, the low (dry) scenario is projected to cause a significant decrease in both daily extreme peak and low flows, by as much as 169% when compared to the control values, which would cause problems, such as droughts, reduction in agricultural crop productivity, and increase in drinking water and other water use demands. More importantly, larger negative changes in low flows are predicted in the downstream part of the basin where a higher groundwater contribution is expected, indicating the sensitivity of a basin to the impact of climate change may vary spatially and depend on basin characteristic. Overall, an amplified, as well as an earlier, occurrence of hydrological droughts is expected towards the end of this century, suggesting that water resources managers, planners, and decision makers should prepare appropriate mitigation measures for climate change for the Zenne and similar basins.

scholarly journals Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 9689
Author(s):  
Tewekel Melese Gemechu ◽  
Hongling Zhao ◽  
Shanshan Bao ◽  
Cidan Yangzong ◽  
Yingying Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Changes in hydrological cycles and water resources will certainly be a direct consequence of climate change, making the forecast of hydrological components essential for water resource assessment and management. This research was thus carried out to estimate water balance components and water yield under current and future climate change scenarios and trends in the Guder Catchment of the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia, using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Hydrological modeling was efficaciously calibrated and validated using the SUFI-2 algorithm of the SWAT model. The results showed that water yield varied from 926 mm to 1340 mm per year (1986–2016). Regional climate model (RCM) data showed, under representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5), that the precipitation will decrease by up to 14.4% relative to the baseline (1986–2016) precipitation of 1228 mm/year, while the air temperature will rise under RCP 8.5 by +4.4 °C in the period from 2057 to 2086, possibly reducing the future basin water yield output, suggesting that the RCP 8.5 prediction will be warmer than RCP 4.5. Under RCP 8.5, the total water yield from 2024 to 2086 may be reduced by 3.2 mm per year, and a significant trend was observed. Local government agencies can arrange projects to solve community water-related issues based on these findings.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

scholarly journals Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Leclerc ◽  
Franck Courchamp ◽  
Céline Bellard
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Insular Ecosystems

Abstract Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

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