scholarly journals MCR-Modified CA–Markov Model for the Simulation of Urban Expansion

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuquan Li ◽  
Meizhen Wang ◽  
Xuejun Liu ◽  
Zhuan Chen ◽  
Xiaojian Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
Ecological Regions ◽  
Ca Model ◽  
Wuhan Metropolitan Area ◽  
Mcr Model

Ecosystem balance is an important factor that affects healthy and sustainable urban development. The traditional cellular automata (CA) model considers only a few ecological factors, however, the MCR model can account for ecological factors. In previous studies, few ecological factors were added to the CA model. Thus, the minimal cumulative resistance (MCR) model is combined with the CA and Markov models for the simulation of urban expansion. To verify the reliability of the method, the Wuhan metropolitan area was selected as a representative urban area, and its expansion in the past and future was simulated. Firstly, seven influential factors were selected from the perspective of location theory. The transformation rules of the comprehensive resistance surface followed by the modified CA–Markov model were constructed on the basis of the MCR model. The expansion of the Wuhan metropolitan area in 2013 was simulated on the basis of the 1996 and 2006 maps of land-use status, and the kappa coefficient was used as an index to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method. Then, the expansion of the Wuhan metropolitan area in 2020 was simulated. Finally, the simulation results obtained with and without the MCR model were compared and analysed from the macro- and micro levels. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the two models differed for ecological regions, such as woodlands and water bodies. The similarities between the regions that were overestimated and underestimated by the MCR-modified CA–Markov model and non-MCR model may be attributed to solution of the land-use transfer matrix with the Markov model. The accuracy of the MCR-modified CA–Markov model for predicting forests, water and other ecological regions was higher than that of the Markov model. Therefore, the proposed MCR-modified CA–Markov model has potential applications in environmentally-conscious urban expansion.

scholarly journals Delineation of Urban Growth Boundaries with SD and CLUE-s Models under Multi-Scenarios in Chengdu Metropolitan Area

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 5919 ◽  
Author(s):  
He ◽  
Mai ◽  
Shen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Small Region ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Urban Growth Boundaries ◽  
Urbanization In China ◽  
S Model

For megacities experiencing rapid urbanization in China, urban growth boundaries (UGBs) have been considered as a useful means to control urban sprawl and to promote sustainable urban development. However, scientific methods and tools to delineate sound UGBs by planners are few and far between. Using metropolitan Chengdu as the study area, this paper applies the system dynamics (SD) and conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent (CLUE-s) models to delineate UGBs. In this study, land use demand was simulated in the SD model temporally at a macro-level and allocated in the CLUE-s model spatially at a micro-level. Key social-economic elements and spatial pattern factors were used in the simulation process for the period of 2013–2030. The simulation results under various scenarios showed that areas along the major corridors and belt roads of the main Chengdu metropolitan area and its satellite towns have higher chances to be developed. The areas most likely to be developed were used to establish the UGBs for 2020, 2025, and 2030. This research demonstrates that the integrated framework of SD and CLUE-s models provides a feasible means of UGB delineation under different development scenarios.

scholarly journals Big Science, Ethics, and the Scalar Effects of Urban Planning

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 217-226
Author(s):  
Sandra Kopljar
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Materials Science ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
Planning Strategy ◽  
Urban Level ◽  
Research Facilities

The urban expansion currently under development around the two materials science facilities MAX IV and European Spallation Source in Lund, Sweden, surrounds two meticulously designed research facilities steered by global demands. The new urban area, together with the research facilities dedicated to science and the development of knowledge, expands the city of Lund onto high-quality agricultural land. In doing so, the municipal planning is attempting to align contemporary ideas of sustainable urban development with large-scale scientific infrastructure. This actualizes an ethical dilemma as the urban expansion onto productive agricultural land overrides previous decisions taken by the municipality regarding land use. It can also be understood as going against national land use policy which states that development on productive agricultural land should be avoided. As the planning stands today, the research facilities heavily push local urban development into the area while the intended research outcomes primarily relate to a global research community tied to international scientific demands for materials science. Although the Brunnshög area is realized through a neutralizing planning strategy, thought to balance and compensate for the development on farmland, the effects of the counterbalancing acts are primarily played out at a local urban level in terms of diverse, exciting, and locally sustainable neighbourhoods. The land use protection policies meant to secure national food production rather operates on a national scale. The argument made in this text is that sustainable development, and the intended balancing acts it involves, ought to be carefully considered in terms of scalar effects. Sustainable planning<em> </em>effects’ <em>scalar extent</em> should be taken into account through careful assessment of the step between good intentions and expected outcomes.

scholarly journals EXAMINING URBAN EXPANSION USING MULTI-TEMPORAL LANDSAT IMAGERY: A CASE STUDY OF THE MONTREAL CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA FROM 1975 TO 2015, CANADA

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B8 ◽  
pp. 965-972
Author(s):  
Lingfei Ma ◽  
He Zhao ◽  
Jonathan Li
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Landsat Imagery ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Urbanization Process ◽  
Continuous Growth ◽  
Census Metropolitan Area

Urban expansion, particularly the movement of residential and commercial land use to sub-urban areas in metropolitan areas, has been considered as a significant signal of regional economic development. In 1970s, the economic centre of Canada moved from Montreal to Toronto. Since some previous research have been focused on the urbanization process in Greater Toronto Area (GTA), it is significant to conduct research in its counterpart. This study evaluates urban expansion process in Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA), Canada, between 1975 and 2015 using satellite images and socio-economic data. Spatial and temporal dynamic information of urbanization process was quantified using Landsat imagery, supervised classification algorithms and the post-classification change detection technique. Accuracy of the Landsat-derived land use classification map ranged from 80% to 97%. The results indicated that continuous growth of built-up areas in the CMA over the study period resulted in a decrease in the area of cultivated land and vegetation. The results showed that urban areas expanded 442 km<sup>2</sup> both along major river systems and lakeshores, as well as expanded from urban centres to surrounded areas. The analysis revealed that urban expansion has been largely driven by population growth and economic development. Consequently, the urban expansion maps produced in this research can assist decision-makers to promote sustainable urban development, and forecast potential changes in urbanization growth patterns.

scholarly journals Past and Future Trajectories of Farmland Loss Due to Rapid Urbanization Using Landsat Imagery and the Markov-CA Model: A Case Study of Delhi, India

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junmei Tang ◽  
Liping Di
Keyword(s):  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
The Past ◽  
Farmland Loss ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Multi Temporal ◽  
Ca Model

This study integrated multi-temporal Landsat images, the Markov-Cellular Automation (CA) model, and socioeconomic factors to analyze the historical and future farmland loss in the Delhi metropolitan area, one of the most rapidly urbanized areas in the world. Accordingly, the major objectives of this study were: (1) to classify the land use and land cover (LULC) map using multi-temporal Landsat images from 1994 to 2014; (2) to develop and calibrate the Markov-CA model based on the Markov transition probabilities of LULC classes, the CA diffusion factor, and other ancillary factors; and (3) to analyze and compare the past loss of farmland and predict the future loss of farmland in relation to rapid urban expansion from the year 1995 to 2030. The predicted results indicated the high accuracy of the Markov-CA model, with an overall accuracy of 0.75 and Kappa value of 0.59. The predicted results showed that urban expansion is likely to continue to the year of 2030, though the rate of increase will slow down from the year 2020. The area of farmland has decreased and will continue to decrease at a relatively stable rate. The Markov-CA model provided a better understanding of the past, current, and future trends of LULC change, with farmland loss being a typical change in this region. The predicted result will help planners to develop suitable government policies to guide sustainable urban development in Delhi, India.

scholarly journals EXAMINING URBAN EXPANSION USING MULTI-TEMPORAL LANDSAT IMAGERY: A CASE STUDY OF THE MONTREAL CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA FROM 1975 TO 2015, CANADA

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B8 ◽  
pp. 965-972 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingfei Ma ◽  
He Zhao ◽  
Jonathan Li
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Landsat Imagery ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Urbanization Process ◽  
Continuous Growth ◽  
Census Metropolitan Area

Urban expansion, particularly the movement of residential and commercial land use to sub-urban areas in metropolitan areas, has been considered as a significant signal of regional economic development. In 1970s, the economic centre of Canada moved from Montreal to Toronto. Since some previous research have been focused on the urbanization process in Greater Toronto Area (GTA), it is significant to conduct research in its counterpart. This study evaluates urban expansion process in Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA), Canada, between 1975 and 2015 using satellite images and socio-economic data. Spatial and temporal dynamic information of urbanization process was quantified using Landsat imagery, supervised classification algorithms and the post-classification change detection technique. Accuracy of the Landsat-derived land use classification map ranged from 80% to 97%. The results indicated that continuous growth of built-up areas in the CMA over the study period resulted in a decrease in the area of cultivated land and vegetation. The results showed that urban areas expanded 442 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; both along major river systems and lakeshores, as well as expanded from urban centres to surrounded areas. The analysis revealed that urban expansion has been largely driven by population growth and economic development. Consequently, the urban expansion maps produced in this research can assist decision-makers to promote sustainable urban development, and forecast potential changes in urbanization growth patterns.

scholarly journals Urban Sprawl: Environmental Consequence of Rapid Urban Expansion

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 110-118
Author(s):  
Ibimilua Adewale Festus ◽  
Ibimilua Foyeke Omoboye ◽  
Ogundare Babatope Andrew
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Population Expansion ◽  
Wildlife Habitat ◽  
Physical Growth ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
Population Increase

Urban Sprawl is a disturbing issue to geographers, urban planners and allied professionals in the 21st century.  The anxiety is based mainly on the social, political, economic, cultural and environmental consequences of rapid urban growth.  Hence, this study examines the reasons for urbanization, as well as encroachment of urban development into the border belt.  Next, the study probes into the causes, consequences and adverse effects of uncontrolled infringement and conversion of rural land to urban uses.  Likewise, the study investigates the processes of land use development, population expansion and physical growth, as well as their ecological foot prints.  Consequently, the study identified the major causes of urban sprawl as rapid population increase, high level of urban development pressure, provision of housing, changes in living standard, as well as technological changes among others.  Also, the study found out that urban sprawl is desirable because of the benefits of spread of development, low rent at the periphery, as well as lesser pressure on the environment of the border belt.  Also, the effects of urban sprawl were recognized as destruction of the means of livelihood of the rural dwellers at the urban fringe belt, land fragmentation, food scarcity, changes in the ecosystem, environmental pollution, biodiversity loss, as well as loss of wildlife habitat.  For the achievement of sustainable urban development in the 21st century and beyond, the study recommends environmental monitoring with the aid of geographic information systems and remote sensing techniques, environmental impact assessment, development control, farm land policy, regulation of land allocation, sustainable land use management, as well as enforcement of planning policies.

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