scholarly journals How the Selection of Training Data and Modeling Approach Affects the Estimation of Ammonia Emissions from a Naturally Ventilated Dairy Barn—Classical Statistics versus Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Hempel ◽  
Julian Adolphs ◽  
Niels Landwehr ◽  
David Janke ◽  
Thomas Amon
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Multilinear Regression ◽  
Temporal Sampling ◽  
Classical Statistics ◽  
Reliable Quantification

Environmental protection efforts can only be effective in the long term with a reliable quantification of pollutant gas emissions as a first step to mitigation. Measurement and analysis strategies must permit the accurate extrapolation of emission values. We systematically analyzed the added value of applying modern machine learning methods in the process of monitoring emissions from naturally ventilated livestock buildings to the atmosphere. We considered almost 40 weeks of hourly emission values from a naturally ventilated dairy cattle barn in Northern Germany. We compared model predictions using 27 different scenarios of temporal sampling, multiple measures of model accuracy, and eight different regression approaches. The error of the predicted emission values with the tested measurement protocols was, on average, well below 20%. The sensitivity of the prediction to the selected training dataset was worse for the ordinary multilinear regression. Gradient boosting and random forests provided the most accurate and robust emission value predictions, accompanied by the second-smallest model errors. Most of the highly ranked scenarios involved six measurement periods, while the scenario with the best overall performance was: One measurement period in summer and three in the transition periods, each lasting for 14 days.

scholarly journals Supervised Machine Learning to Assess Methane Emissions of a Dairy Building with Natural Ventilation

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (19) ◽  
pp. 6938
Author(s):  
Sabrina Hempel ◽  
Julian Adolphs ◽  
Niels Landwehr ◽  
Dilya Willink ◽  
David Janke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Methane Emission ◽  
Natural Ventilation ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Multilinear Regression ◽  
Quartile Range

A reliable quantification of greenhouse gas emissions is a basis for the development of adequate mitigation measures. Protocols for emission measurements and data analysis approaches to extrapolate to accurate annual emission values are a substantial prerequisite in this context. We systematically analyzed the benefit of supervised machine learning methods to project methane emissions from a naturally ventilated cattle building with a concrete solid floor and manure scraper located in Northern Germany. We took into account approximately 40 weeks of hourly emission measurements and compared model predictions using eight regression approaches, 27 different sampling scenarios and four measures of model accuracy. Data normalization was applied based on median and quartile range. A correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of individual features. This indicated only a very weak linear relation between the methane emission and features that are typically used to predict methane emission values of naturally ventilated barns. It further highlighted the added value of including day-time and squared ambient temperature as features. The error of the predicted emission values was in general below 10%. The results from Gaussian processes, ordinary multilinear regression and neural networks were least robust. More robust results were obtained with multilinear regression with regularization, support vector machines and particularly the ensemble methods gradient boosting and random forest. The latter had the added value to be rather insensitive against the normalization procedure. In the case of multilinear regression, also the removal of not significantly linearly related variables (i.e., keeping only the day-time component) led to robust modeling results. We concluded that measurement protocols with 7 days and six measurement periods can be considered sufficient to model methane emissions from the dairy barn with solid floor with manure scraper, particularly when periods are distributed over the year with a preference for transition periods. Features should be normalized according to median and quartile range and must be carefully selected depending on the modeling approach.

scholarly journals Proposing a machine-learning based method to predict stillbirth before and during delivery and ranking the features: nationwide retrospective cross-sectional study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Toktam Khatibi ◽  
Elham Hanifi ◽  
Mohammad Mehdi Sepehri ◽  
Leila Allahqoli
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Fetal Loss ◽  
Null Distribution ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Boosting Method ◽  
Demographic Features

Abstract Background Stillbirth is defined as fetal loss in pregnancy beyond 28 weeks by WHO. In this study, a machine-learning based method is proposed to predict stillbirth from livebirth and discriminate stillbirth before and during delivery and rank the features. Method A two-step stack ensemble classifier is proposed for classifying the instances into stillbirth and livebirth at the first step and then, classifying stillbirth before delivery from stillbirth during the labor at the second step. The proposed SE has two consecutive layers including the same classifiers. The base classifiers in each layer are decision tree, Gradient boosting classifier, logistics regression, random forest and support vector machines which are trained independently and aggregated based on Vote boosting method. Moreover, a new feature ranking method is proposed in this study based on mean decrease accuracy, Gini Index and model coefficients to find high-ranked features. Results IMAN registry dataset is used in this study considering all births at or beyond 28th gestational week from 2016/04/01 to 2017/01/01 including 1,415,623 live birth and 5502 stillbirth cases. A combination of maternal demographic features, clinical history, fetal properties, delivery descriptors, environmental features, healthcare service provider descriptors and socio-demographic features are considered. The experimental results show that our proposed SE outperforms the compared classifiers with the average accuracy of 90%, sensitivity of 91%, specificity of 88%. The discrimination of the proposed SE is assessed and the average AUC of ±95%, CI of 90.51% ±1.08 and 90% ±1.12 is obtained on training dataset for model development and test dataset for external validation, respectively. The proposed SE is calibrated using isotopic nonparametric calibration method with the score of 0.07. The process is repeated 10,000 times and AUC of SE classifiers using random different training datasets as null distribution. The obtained p-value to assess the specificity of the proposed SE is 0.0126 which shows the significance of the proposed SE. Conclusions Gestational age and fetal height are two most important features for discriminating livebirth from stillbirth. Moreover, hospital, province, delivery main cause, perinatal abnormality, miscarriage number and maternal age are the most important features for classifying stillbirth before and during delivery.

Abstract 1122‐000047: Machine Learning to Predict Stroke Outcomes after Mechanical Thrombectomy

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (S1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehdi Bouslama ◽  
Leonardo Pisani ◽  
Diogo Haussen ◽  
Raul Nogueira
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Cerebral Artery ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Discriminative Performance ◽  
Post Procedure ◽  
Procedural Models

Introduction : Prognostication is an integral part of clinical decision‐making in stroke care. Machine learning (ML) methods have gained increasing popularity in the medical field due to their flexibility and high performance. Using a large comprehensive stroke center registry, we sought to apply various ML techniques for 90‐day stroke outcome predictions after thrombectomy. Methods : We used individual patient data from our prospectively collected thrombectomy database between 09/2010 and 03/2020. Patients with anterior circulation strokes (Internal Carotid Artery, Middle Cerebral Artery M1, M2, or M3 segments and Anterior Cerebral Artery) and complete records were included. Our primary outcome was 90‐day functional independence (defined as modified Rankin Scale score 0–2). Pre‐ and post‐procedure models were developed. Four known ML algorithms (support vector machine, random forest, gradient boosting, and artificial neural network) were implemented using a 70/30 training‐test data split and 10‐fold cross‐validation on the training data for model calibration. Discriminative performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) metric. Results : Among 1248 patients with anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke undergoing thrombectomy during the study period, 1020 had complete records and were included in the analysis. In the training data (n = 714), 49.3% of the patients achieved independence at 90‐days. Fifteen baseline clinical, laboratory and neuroimaging features were used to develop the pre‐procedural models, with four additional parameters included in the post‐procedure models. For the preprocedural models, the highest AUC was 0.797 (95%CI [0.75‐ 0.85]) for the gradient boosting model. Similarly, the same ML technique performed best on post‐procedural data and had an improved discriminative performance compared to the pre‐procedure model with an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI [0.77‐ 0.87]). Conclusions : Our pre‐and post‐procedural models reliably estimated outcomes in stroke patients undergoing thrombectomy. They represent a step forward in creating simple and efficient prognostication tools to aid treatment decision‐making. A web‐based platform and related mobile app are underway.

scholarly journals Predicting Electric Vehicle Charging Station Availability Using Ensemble Machine Learning

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (23) ◽  
pp. 7834
Author(s):  
Christopher Hecht ◽  
Jan Figgener ◽  
Dirk Uwe Sauer
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Binary Data ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Charging Infrastructure ◽  
Ensemble Models ◽  
Charging Station ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Electric vehicles may reduce greenhouse gas emissions from individual mobility. Due to the long charging times, accurate planning is necessary, for which the availability of charging infrastructure must be known. In this paper, we show how the occupation status of charging infrastructure can be predicted for the next day using machine learning models— Gradient Boosting Classifier and Random Forest Classifier. Since both are ensemble models, binary training data (occupied vs. available) can be used to provide a certainty measure for predictions. The prediction may be used to adapt prices in a high-load scenario, predict grid stress, or forecast available power for smart or bidirectional charging. The models were chosen based on an evaluation of 13 different, typically used machine learning models. We show that it is necessary to know past charging station usage in order to predict future usage. Other features such as traffic density or weather have a limited effect. We show that a Gradient Boosting Classifier achieves 94.8% accuracy and a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.838, making ensemble models a suitable tool. We further demonstrate how a model trained on binary data can perform non-binary predictions to give predictions in the categories “low likelihood” to “high likelihood”.

Curator: A No-Code Self-Supervised Learning and Active Labeling Tool to Create Labeled Image Datasets from Petabyte-Scale Imagery

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudy Venguswamy ◽  
Mike Levy ◽  
Anirudh Koul ◽  
Satyarth Praveen ◽  
Tarun Narayanan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Active Learning ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Seed Set ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Reference Image ◽  
Query Image ◽  
Real World Datasets

<p>Machine learning modeling for Earth events at NASA is often limited by the availability of labeled examples. For example, training classifiers for forest fires or oil spills from satellite imagery requires curating a massive and diverse dataset of example forest fires, a tedious multi-month effort requiring careful review of over 196.9 million square miles of data per day for 20 years. While such images might exist in abundance within 40 petabytes of unlabeled satellite data, finding these positive examples to include in a training dataset for a machine learning model is extremely time-consuming and requires researchers to "hunt" for positive examples, like finding a needle in a haystack. </p><p>We present a no-code open-source tool, Curator, whose goal is to minimize the amount of human manual image labeling needed to achieve a state of the art classifier. The pipeline, purpose-built to take advantage of the massive amount of unlabeled images, consists of (1) self-supervision training to convert unlabeled images into meaningful representations, (2) search-by-example to collect a seed set of images, (3) human-in-the-loop active learning to iteratively ask for labels on uncertain examples and train on them. </p><p>In step 1, a model capable of representing unlabeled images meaningfully is trained with a self-supervised algorithm (like SimCLR) on a random subset of the dataset (that conforms to researchers’ specified “training budget.”). Since real-world datasets are often imbalanced leading to suboptimal models, the initial model is used to generate embeddings on the entire dataset. Then, images with equidistant embeddings are sampled. This iterative training and resampling strategy improves both balanced training data and models every iteration. In step 2, researchers supply an example image of interest, and the output embeddings generated from this image are used to find other images with embeddings near the reference image’s embedding in euclidean space (hence similar looking images to the query image). These proposed candidate images contain a higher density of positive examples and are annotated manually as a seed set. In step 3, the seed labels are used to train a classifier to identify more candidate images for human inspection with active learning. Each classification training loop, candidate images for labeling are sampled from the larger unlabeled dataset based on the images that the model is most uncertain about (p ≈ 0.5).</p><p>Curator is released as an open-source package built on PyTorch-Lightning. The pipeline uses GPU-based transforms from the NVIDIA-Dali package for augmentation, leading to a 5-10x speed up in self-supervised training and is run from the command line.</p><p>By iteratively training a self-supervised model and a classifier in tandem with human manual annotation, this pipeline is able to unearth more positive examples from severely imbalanced datasets which were previously untrainable with self-supervision algorithms. In applications such as detecting wildfires, atmospheric dust, or turning outward with telescopic surveys, increasing the number of positive candidates presented to humans for manual inspection increases the efficacy of classifiers and multiplies the efficiency of researchers’ data curation efforts.</p>

Machine Learning Application to CO2 Foam Rheology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javad Iskandarov ◽  
George Fanourgakis ◽  
Waleed Alameri ◽  
George Froudakis ◽  
Georgios Karanikolos
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Co2 Foam ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Foam Rheology

Abstract Conventional foam modelling techniques require tuning of too many parameters and long computational time in order to provide accurate predictions. Therefore, there is a need for alternative methodologies for the efficient and reliable prediction of the foams’ performance. Foams are susceptible to various operational conditions and reservoir parameters. This research aims to apply machine learning (ML) algorithms to experimental data in order to correlate important affecting parameters to foam rheology. In this way, optimum operational conditions for CO2 foam enhanced oil recovery (EOR) can be determined. In order to achieve that, five different ML algorithms were applied to experimental rheology data from various experimental studies. It was concluded that the Gradient Boosting (GB) algorithm could successfully fit the training data and give the most accurate predictions for unknown cases.

Exploiting Rules to Enhance Machine Learning in Extracting Information From Multi-Institutional Prostate Pathology Reports

2020 ◽  
pp. 865-874
Author(s):  
Enrico Santus ◽  
Tal Schuster ◽  
Amir M. Tahmasebi ◽  
Clara Li ◽  
Adam Yala ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Hybrid Systems ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Feature Model ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Pathology Reports

PURPOSE Literature on clinical note mining has highlighted the superiority of machine learning (ML) over hand-crafted rules. Nevertheless, most studies assume the availability of large training sets, which is rarely the case. For this reason, in the clinical setting, rules are still common. We suggest 2 methods to leverage the knowledge encoded in pre-existing rules to inform ML decisions and obtain high performance, even with scarce annotations. METHODS We collected 501 prostate pathology reports from 6 American hospitals. Reports were split into 2,711 core segments, annotated with 20 attributes describing the histology, grade, extension, and location of tumors. The data set was split by institutions to generate a cross-institutional evaluation setting. We assessed 4 systems, namely a rule-based approach, an ML model, and 2 hybrid systems integrating the previous methods: a Rule as Feature model and a Classifier Confidence model. Several ML algorithms were tested, including logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB). RESULTS When training on data from a single institution, LR lags behind the rules by 3.5% (F1 score: 92.2% v 95.7%). Hybrid models, instead, obtain competitive results, with Classifier Confidence outperforming the rules by +0.5% (96.2%). When a larger amount of data from multiple institutions is used, LR improves by +1.5% over the rules (97.2%), whereas hybrid systems obtain +2.2% for Rule as Feature (97.7%) and +2.6% for Classifier Confidence (98.3%). Replacing LR with SVM or XGB yielded similar performance gains. CONCLUSION We developed methods to use pre-existing handcrafted rules to inform ML algorithms. These hybrid systems obtain better performance than either rules or ML models alone, even when training data are limited.

scholarly journals SAT-LB121 Development of a Machine-Learning Method for Predicting New Onset of Diabetes Mellitus: A Retrospective Analysis of 509,153 Annual Specific Health Checkup Records

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akihiro Nomura ◽  
Sho Yamamoto ◽  
Yuta Hayakawa ◽  
Kouki Taniguchi ◽  
Takuya Higashitani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Performance Test ◽  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Health Checkup ◽  
Specific Health

Abstract Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disorder, characterized by impaired glucose metabolism. It is linked to increased risks of several diseases such as atrial fibrillation, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases. Therefore, DM prevention is essential. However, the traditional regression-based DM-onset prediction methods are incapable of investigating future DM for generally healthy individuals without DM. Employing gradient-boosting decision trees, we developed a machine learning-based prediction model to identify the DM signatures, prior to the onset of DM. We employed the nationwide annual specific health checkup records, collected during the years 2008 to 2018, from Kanazawa city, Ishikawa, Japan. The data included the physical examinations, blood and urine tests, and participant questionnaires. Individuals without DM (at baseline), who underwent more than two annual health checkups during the said period, were included. The new cases of DM onset were recorded when the participants were diagnosed with DM in the annual check-ups. The dataset was divided into three subsets in a 6:2:2 ratio to constitute the training, tuning (internal validation), and testing datasets. Employing the testing dataset, the ability of our trained prediction model to calculate the area under the curve (AUC), precision, recall, F1 score, and overall accuracy was evaluated. Using a 1,000-iteration bootstrap method, every performance test resulted in a two-sided 95% confidence interval (CI). We included 509,153 annual health checkup records of 139,225 participants. Among them, 65,505 participants without DM were included, which constituted36,303 participants in the training dataset and 13,101 participants in each of the tuning and testing datasets. We identified a total of 4,696 new DM-onset patients (7.2%) in the study period. Our trained model predicted the future incidence of DM with the AUC, precision, recall, F1 score, and overall accuracy of 0.71 (0.69-0.72 with 95% CI), 75.3% (71.6-78.8), 42.2% (39.3-45.2), 54.1% (51.2-56.7), and 94.9% (94.5-95.2), respectively. In conclusion, the machine learning-based prediction model satisfactorily identified the DM onset prior to the actual incidence.

scholarly journals Modelling Timbral Hardness

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andy Pearce ◽  
Tim Brookes ◽  
Russell Mason
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Sound Source ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Automatic Generation ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Sound Effect ◽  
Multilinear Regression ◽  
Perceptual Model ◽  
Search Results

Hardness is the most commonly searched timbral attribute within freesound.org, a commonly used online sound effect repository. A perceptual model of hardness was developed to enable the automatic generation of metadata to facilitate hardness-based filtering or sorting of search results. A training dataset was collected of 202 stimuli with 32 sound source types, and perceived hardness was assessed by a panel of listeners. A multilinear regression model was developed on six features: maximum bandwidth, attack centroid, midband level, percussive-to-harmonic ratio, onset strength, and log attack time. This model predicted the hardness of the training data with R 2 = 0.76. It predicted hardness within a new dataset with R 2 = 0.57, and predicted the rank order of individual sources perfectly, after accounting for the subjective variance of the ratings. Its performance exceeded that of human listeners.

scholarly journals A machine learning framework to determine geolocations from metagenomic profiling

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lihong Huang ◽  
Canqiang Xu ◽  
Wenxian Yang ◽  
Rongshan Yu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Geographic Origin ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Metagenomic Data ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Kriging Interpolation ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Testing Data ◽  
Microbial Samples

Abstract Background Studies on metagenomic data of environmental microbial samples found that microbial communities seem to be geolocation-specific, and the microbiome abundance profile can be a differentiating feature to identify samples’ geolocations. In this paper, we present a machine learning framework to determine the geolocations from metagenomics profiling of microbial samples. Results Our method was applied to the multi-source microbiome data from MetaSUB (The Metagenomics and Metadesign of Subways and Urban Biomes) International Consortium for the CAMDA 2019 Metagenomic Forensics Challenge (the Challenge). The goal of the Challenge is to predict the geographical origins of mystery samples by constructing microbiome fingerprints.First, we extracted features from metagenomic abundance profiles. We then randomly split the training data into training and validation sets and trained the prediction models on the training set. Prediction performance was evaluated on the validation set. By using logistic regression with L2 normalization, the prediction accuracy of the model reaches 86%, averaged over 100 random splits of training and validation datasets.The testing data consists of samples from cities that do not occur in the training data. To predict the “mystery” cities that are not sampled before for the testing data, we first defined biological coordinates for sampled cities based on the similarity of microbial samples from them. Then we performed affine transform on the map such that the distance between cities measures their biological difference rather than geographical distance. After that, we derived the probabilities of a given testing sample from unsampled cities based on its predicted probabilities on sampled cities using Kriging interpolation. Results show that this method can successfully assign high probabilities to the true cities-of-origin of testing samples. Conclusion Our framework shows good performance in predicting the geographic origin of metagenomic samples for cities where training data are available. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential of the proposed method to predict metagenomic samples’ geolocations for samples from locations that are not in the training dataset.

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