scholarly journals The Impact of Flood Risk on the Activity of the Residential Land Market in a Polish Cultural Heritage Town

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 10098
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Dudzińska ◽  
Barbara Prus ◽  
Radosław Cellmer ◽  
Stanisław Bacior ◽  
Katarzyna Kocur-Bera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Residential Land ◽  
Market Activity ◽  
Gis Tools ◽  
Level Of Activity ◽  
Distance Weighting ◽  
The Impact

The article attempts to determine the effect of perceived flood risk, based on identified flood hazard zones, on the level of activity in the market of land property designated for housing developments in the historical town of Sandomierz, Poland. The study employed graphical, analytical, quantitative methods, and spatial analyses with GIS tools. The proposed methodology, involving spatial interpolation of the phenomenon (Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW)) and an expert opinion survey, facilitates the assessment of the market activity in towns where transactions are scarce. Trade in property is lower in areas at risk of flooding than for the remaining parts of the town. The potential flood hazard zone affects both the activity of the property market and the average prices of land. The study demonstrated that both a flood and flood risk affect the levels of market activity and the prices of residential land. However, this impact differs at various times and locations and is greater immediately after a flood. Properties located in the most attractive location within an area are characterised by a greater sensitivity to this risk.

scholarly journals Evaluating the impact of model complexity on flood wave propagation and inundation extent with a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model coupling framework

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1723-1735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jannis M. Hoch ◽  
Dirk Eilander ◽  
Hiroaki Ikeuchi ◽  
Fedor Baart ◽  
Hessel C. Winsemius
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Model Complexity ◽  
Model Coupling ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Flood Simulations ◽  
Inundation Extent ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Fluvial flood events are a major threat to people and infrastructure. Typically, flood hazard is driven by hydrologic or river routing and floodplain flow processes. Since they are often simulated by different models, coupling these models may be a viable way to increase the integration of different physical drivers of simulated inundation estimates. To facilitate coupling different models and integrating across flood hazard processes, we here present GLOFRIM 2.0, a globally applicable framework for integrated hydrologic–hydrodynamic modelling. We then tested the hypothesis that smart model coupling can advance inundation modelling in the Amazon and Ganges basins. By means of GLOFRIM, we coupled the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB with the hydrodynamic models CaMa-Flood and LISFLOOD-FP. Results show that replacing the kinematic wave approximation of the hydrologic model with the local inertia equation of CaMa-Flood greatly enhances accuracy of peak discharge simulations as expressed by an increase in the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) from 0.48 to 0.71. Flood maps obtained with LISFLOOD-FP improved representation of observed flood extent (critical success index C=0.46), compared to downscaled products of PCR-GLOBWB and CaMa-Flood (C=0.30 and C=0.25, respectively). Results confirm that model coupling can indeed be a viable way forward towards more integrated flood simulations. However, results also suggest that the accuracy of coupled models still largely depends on the model forcing. Hence, further efforts must be undertaken to improve the magnitude and timing of simulated runoff. In addition, flood risk is, particularly in delta areas, driven by coastal processes. A more holistic representation of flood processes in delta areas, for example by incorporating a tide and surge model, must therefore be a next development step of GLOFRIM, making even more physically robust estimates possible for adequate flood risk management practices.

Assessing the global risk of climate change to re/insurers using catastrophe models and hazard maps

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Jones ◽  
Emma Raven ◽  
Jane Toothill
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The Impact

<p>In 2018 worldwide natural catastrophe losses were estimated at around USD $155 billion, resulting in the fourth-highest insurance payout on sigma records, and in 2020 JBA Risk Management (JBA) estimate 2 billion people will be at risk to inland flooding. By 2100, under a 1.5°C warming scenario, the cost of coastal flooding alone as a result of sea level rise could reach USD $10.2 trillion per year, assuming no further adaptation. It is therefore imperative to understand the impact climate change may have on global flood risk and insured losses in the future.</p><p>The re/insurance industry has an important role to play in providing financial resilience in a changing climate. Although integrating climate science into financial business remains in its infancy, modelling companies like JBA are increasingly developing new data and services to help assess the potential impact of climate change on insurance exposure.</p><p>We will discuss several approaches to incorporating climate change projections with flood risk data using examples from research collaborations and commercial projects. Our case studies will include: (1) building a national-scale climate change flood model through the application of projected changes in river flow, rainfall and sea level to the stochastic event set in the model, and (2) using Global Climate Model data to adjust hydrological inputs driving 2D hydraulic models to develop climate change flood hazard maps.</p><p>These tools provide outputs to meet different needs, and results may sometimes invoke further questions. For example: how can an extreme climate scenario produce lower flood risk than a conservative one? Why may adjacent postcodes' flood risk differ? We will explore the challenges associated with interpreting these results and the potential implications for the re/insurance industry.</p>

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Building-Level Flood Mitigation Measures Made Possible by Early Flood Warnings on Community-Level Flood Loss Reduction

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 475
Author(s):  
Omar M. Nofal ◽  
John W. van de van de Lindt ◽  
Harvey Cutler ◽  
Martin Shields ◽  
Kevin Crofton
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Flood Vulnerability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Flood Warnings

The growing number of flood disasters worldwide and the subsequent catastrophic consequences of these events have revealed the flood vulnerability of communities. Flood impact predictions are essential for better flood risk management which can result in an improvement of flood preparedness for vulnerable communities. Early flood warnings can provide households and business owners additional time to save certain possessions or products in their buildings. This can be accomplished by elevating some of the water-sensitive components (e.g., appliances, furniture, electronics, etc.) or installing a temporary flood barrier. Although many qualitative and quantitative flood risk models have been developed and highlighted in the literature, the resolution used in these models does not allow a detailed analysis of flood mitigation at the building- and community level. Therefore, in this article, a high-fidelity flood risk model was used to provide a linkage between the outputs from a high-resolution flood hazard model integrated with a component-based probabilistic flood vulnerability model to account for the damage for each building within the community. The developed model allowed to investigate the benefits of using a precipitation forecast system that allows a lead time for the community to protect its assets and thereby decreasing the amount of flood-induced losses.

scholarly journals A Novel Method for Evaluation of Flood Risk Reduction Strategies: Explanation of ICPR FloRiAn GIS-Tool and Its First Application to the Rhine River Basin

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian Schmid-Breton ◽  
Gesa Kutschera ◽  
Ton Botterhuis ◽  
The ICPR Expert Group ‘Flood Risk Analysis’ (EG HIRI)
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Rhine River ◽  
Culture Heritage ◽  
Flood Risk Reduction ◽  
The Impact

To determine the effects of measures on flood risk, the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR), supported by the engineering consultant HKV has developed a method and a GIS-tool named “ICPR FloRiAn (Flood Risk Analysis)”, which enables the broad-scale assessment of the effectiveness of flood risk management measures on the Rhine, but could be also applied to other rivers. The tool uses flood hazard maps and associated recurrence periods for an overall damage and risk assessment for four receptors: human health, environment, culture heritage, and economic activity. For each receptor, a method is designed to calculate the impact of flooding and the effect of measures. The tool consists of three interacting modules: damage assessment, risk assessment, and measures. Calculations using this tool show that the flood risk reduction target defined in the Action Plan on Floods of the ICPR in 1998 could be achieved with the measures already taken and those planned until 2030. Upon request, the ICPR will provide this tool and the method to other river basin organizations, national authorities, or scientific institutions. This article presents the method and GIS-tool developed by the ICPR as well as first calculation results.

Flood Risk Management: Analysis of Evacuation Process

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Borowska-Stefańska ◽  
Szymon Wiśniewski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Traffic Load ◽  
Forthcoming Article ◽  
Economic Point ◽  
The Impact

This is an advance summary of a forthcoming article in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science. Please check back later for the full article. Globally, floods cause widespread damage, especially in densely populated areas exposed to heavy land use. As a result, enormous financial expenditure is invested in flood protection and the mitigation of flood-related effects. Decisions on the allocation of resources to ensure flood protection are made on the determination of the costs entailed and the expected benefits that such actions may bring. From the economic point of view, the outlays incurred for flood protection should be outweighed by the expected results. For this reason, flood risk management is very important. Mitigation of flood-related loss should take into account a comprehensive spectrum of actions, from prevention and education, through measures taken during a flood, to strategies that help people return to normality once the disaster is over. In the 21st century there has been a radical change in the approach to the issue of flood protection (as seen in the 2007 Floods Directive)—it is no longer believed that there is such a thing as complete protection against flood, but that the damage and loss floods inflict can be mitigated, and since floods cannot be completely eradicated, societies must learn how to live with them. In the event of a flood, pre-prepared procedures to counteract and mitigate the effects of the disaster are followed, including evacuation of people and movable property from affected areas. Evacuation planning is meant to reduce the number of disaster-related fatalities and material losses. Crucially, this type of planning requires a well-defined, optimum evacuation policy for people/households within flood hazard areas. In addition, evacuation modeling is particularly important for authorities, planners, and other experts managing the process of evacuation, as it allows for more effective relocation of evacuees. Modeling can also facilitate the identification of bottlenecks within the transport system prior to the occurrence of a disaster, that is, the impact of flood-related road closures and the effects a phased evacuation has on traffic load, among other things, can be determined. Furthermore, not only may the ability to model alternative evacuation scenarios lead to the establishment of appropriate policies, evacuation strategies, and contingency plans, but it might also facilitate better communication and information flow.

scholarly journals Instant Flood Risk Modelling (Inform) Tool for Co-Design of Flood Risk Management Strategies with Stakeholders in Can Tho City, Vietnam

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 3131
Author(s):  
Hieu Ngo ◽  
Mohanasundar Radhakrishnan ◽  
Roshanka Ranasinghe ◽  
Assela Pathirana ◽  
Chris Zevenbergen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Damage Maps ◽  
Can Tho City ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
The Impact

Flood risk reduction strategies play an important role in flood risk management (FRM) and these strategies are being co-designed with the engagement of the stakeholder through multiple consultations and co-designing sessions. Effective participation of stakeholders in interactive work sessions requires fast and accurate modeling systems with a user-friendly interface, which can simulate the impact due to various flood reduction measures selected by the stakeholders and also generate outputs that can be understood by all stakeholders, especially those who are not FRM specialists. Presenting an easy-to-understand tool with easy inputs and outputs for a variety of stakeholders and at the same time providing reliable and accurate results for a range of scenarios and interventions is a challenge. Seven requirements that are essential for a user-friendly flood risk tool were used to develop an instant flood risk modeling tool. This paper presents a web-based hydraulic tool, i.e., instant flood risk model (Inform), to support FRM in the urban center of Can Tho city (Ninh Kieu district), Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Inform was developed based on (i) a simplified 1D model for the entire Mekong Delta; and (ii) flood hazard and damage maps, and estimated flood damage for Ninh Kieu district in Can Tho city obtained directly from the 1D/2D coupled model for Ninh Kieu district. Inform rapidly generates flood levels, flood hazard and damage maps, estimated damages. Pilot testing with experts confirmed that Inform qualifies as a reliable co-design tool for developing FRM strategies as it features an inbuilt input library, comprises flexible options, easy to use, produces quick results and has a user-friendly interface. With the help of an interactive web-based tool such as Inform presented here, it is possible to co-design FRM strategies for Can Tho or any other city that is subject to flood risk.

Flood Risk Characterization of Highly Flood-prone Data Scarce Region under Changing Climate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aditya Gusain ◽  
Naveen Sudharsan ◽  
Subhankar Karmakar ◽  
Subimal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Risk Framework ◽  
The Impact

<p>It is evident that changes in climate alter the incidence of hydro-climatic extreme events, specifically floods, which are likely to cause irreparable socio-economic and ecological damages. With a 7,516 km coastline that is prone to climate-mediated disturbances and cyclones, the eastern coast of the Indian subcontinent is comparatively more vulnerable to the changing climate and land use with higher incidences of extensive flooding. Therefore, the policy-makers and decision-making authorities are dependent on the scientific community to provide reliable estimates of hydro-meteorological variables for simulating extreme events under the impact of climate change. However, a comprehensive flood risk framework at a finer administrative level is not yet available under the Indian scenario that assesses the changing dynamics and complexities of different components of climatic risk (hazard, vulnerability, and exposure). The present study attempts to demonstrate a proposed framework of flood risk assessment for a highly flood-prone deltaic region of Mahanadi River Basin, India, under climate change scenarios for near-future (the 2040s) at present-day vulnerability and exposure status. It was noted that changes in future flood risk are highly influenced by the vulnerability and exposure status of the region. Lower vulnerability and exposure in coastal sub-districts reduces the overall risk even if a higher flood hazard is observed. Under both future scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the number of villages under high hazard zones with greater flood magnitude has increased. Therefore, it thrusts upon the need to adopt stringent actions for devising better adaptation strategies and sustainable planning which can aid in lowering the vulnerability of the region to future floods.</p>

Flood hazard and management: a UK perspective

2006 ◽  
Vol 364 (1845) ◽  
pp. 2135-2145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard S Wheater
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Water Flooding ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
The Impact

This paper discusses whether flood hazard in the UK is increasing and considers issues of flood risk management. Urban development is known to increase fluvial flood frequency, hence design measures are routinely implemented to minimize the impact. Studies suggest that historical effects, while potentially large at small scale, are not significant for large river basins. Storm water flooding within the urban environment is an area where flood hazard is inadequately defined; new methods are needed to assess and manage flood risk. Development on flood plains has led to major capital expenditure on flood protection, but government is attempting to strengthen the planning role of the environmental regulator to prevent this. Rural land use management has intensified significantly over the past 30 years, leading to concerns that flood risk has increased, at least at local scale; the implications for catchment-scale flooding are unclear. New research is addressing this issue, and more broadly, the role of land management in reducing flood risk. Climate change impacts on flooding and current guidelines for UK practice are reviewed. Large uncertainties remain, not least for the occurrence of extreme precipitation, but precautionary guidance is in place. Finally, current levels of flood protection are discussed. Reassessment of flood hazard has led to targets for increased flood protection, but despite important developments to communicate flood risk to the public, much remains to be done to increase public awareness of flood hazard.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact Index of Urbanization Index on Urban Flood Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 509-516
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Tapi Basin ◽  
The Impact

The process of urbanization has changed overall Land use/Land cover patterns which are being attributed to flooding and resulting in the economic damages from flooding events. This current study aims to evaluate the implication of spatiotemporal changes of LULC Pattern on the flood risk of Surat city (Gujarat, India), Lower Tapi Basin. The Topographical maps and satellite imagery of Resources-1 of the year 1968 and the year 2006 respectively are used for analyses the urbanization index. As the flood risk is a combination of flood hazard, and vulnerability of the urbanized area, flood losses are expected to rise due to change in each of these aspects. The remote sensing and spatial analysis tools of Geographic Information System (GIS) have been used to statistically examine the flood risk index along with their different land-use scenarios. It has been observed that other than natural processes, rapid urbanization obstructions are being considered as one of the main drivers of flood risk aggravation, and if so, it has made essential for the implementation of flood management approach at the top priority for reducing the risk of flood.

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