scholarly journals Risk Analysis for Short-Term Operation of the Power Generation in Cascade Reservoirs Considering Multivariate Reservoir Inflow Forecast Errors

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3689
Author(s):  
Yueqiu Wu ◽  
Liping Wang ◽  
Yi Wang ◽  
Yanke Zhang ◽  
Jiajie Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cascade Reservoirs ◽  
Term Operation ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
T Copula

In the short-term operation of the power generation of cascade reservoirs, uncertainty factors such as inflow forecast errors could cause various types of risks. The inflow to a downstream reservoir is not only affected by inflow forecast errors from upstream reservoirs but also the forecast errors associated with inflow to the stream segment between the reservoirs, such as from a tributary. The inflow forecast errors of different forecast periods may also be correlated. To address this multivariate problem, the inflow forecast error variables were jointly fitted in this study using the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and a t-Copula function based on the analysis of the error distribution characteristics in different forecast periods. Therefore, a stochastic model that coupled with the GMM and t-Copula to calculate inflow forecast errors in multiple forecast periods was established. Furthermore, according to the simulation results of the stochastic model and the predicted runoff series, a set of simulated runoff processes were obtained. Then they were combined with the existing power generation plan to carry out the risk analysis for short-term operation of the power generation in a cascade reservoir. The approach was evaluated using the Jinguan cascade hydropower system within the Yalong River basin as a case study. For this case study, the risk analysis for short-term operation of the power generation was analyzed based on stochastic simulation of the inflow forecast errors; the results show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting based on random forest feature selection and CEEMD: A case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 93 ◽  
pp. 106389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongxiao Niu ◽  
Keke Wang ◽  
Lijie Sun ◽  
Jing Wu ◽  
Xiaomin Xu
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Photovoltaic Power

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operations Considering Short-Term Flood Control and Long-Term Water Supply: A Case Study for the Da-Han Creek Basin in Taiwan

Water ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Ming Cheng ◽  
Chien-Lin Huang ◽  
Nien-Sheng Hsu ◽  
Chih-Chiang Wei
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Reservoir Operations ◽  
Short Term

scholarly journals Optimization Model for the Long-Term Operation of an Interprovincial Hydropower Plant Incorporating Peak Shaving Demands

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 4804
Author(s):  
Rui Cao ◽  
Jianjian Shen ◽  
Chuntian Cheng ◽  
Jian Wang
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Hydropower Plant ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Peak Shaving ◽  
Term Operation ◽  
Proposed Model

The increasing peak-to-valley load difference in China pose a challenge to long-distance and large-capacity hydropower transmission via high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines. Considering the peak shaving demands of load centers, an optimization model that maximizes the expected power generation revenue is proposed here for the long-term operation of an interprovincial hydropower plant. A simulation-based method was utilized to explore the relationships between long-term power generation and short-term peak shaving revenue in the model. This method generated representative daily load scenarios via cluster analysis and approximated the real-time electricity price of each load profile with the time-of-use price strategy. A mixed-integer linear programming model with HVDC transmission constraints was then established to obtain moving average (MA) price curves that bridged two time-coupled operations. The MA price curves were finally incorporated into the long-term optimization model to determine monthly generation schedules, and the inflow uncertainty was addressed by discretized inflow scenarios. The proposed model was evaluated based on the operation of the Xiluodu hydropower system in China during the drawdown season. The results revealed a trade-off between long-term energy production and short-term peak shaving revenue, and they demonstrated the revenue potential of interprovincial hydropower transmission while meeting peak shaving demands. A comparison with other long-term optimization methods demonstrated the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed model in maximizing power generation revenue.

scholarly journals Monte Carlo simulation of district heating system short-term operation in electricity markets

Energetika ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilias Dimoulkas ◽  
Mikael Amelin
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Heat Storage ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Short Term ◽  
District Heating System ◽  
Term Operation ◽  
Operation Scheduling

Energy generation in district heating (DH) systems is usually done in combined heat and power (CHP) units which can efficiently produce both useful heat and electric power. There can also exist heat only boilers, electric heaters, heat pumps and heat storage tanks. The coupling of heat and power generation in the CHP units and the possibility to store heat for later use makes the short-term operation scheduling of such systems quite challenging. Furthermore, big DH systems produce power that is sold in the electricity markets. This makes the operation scheduling problem even more complex as the uncertainty of the electricity prices in the markets should be considered. To make optimal decisions under uncertainty, various mathematical optimization tools were developed, such as stochastic programming and robust optimization. In this paper, an approach based on a Monte Carlo simulation is followed. Initially, a model of DH system short-term operation and power trading is mathematically formulated. Then, this model is used to run a Monte Carlo simulation for a case study system where the values of stochastic parameters are simulated using autoregressive models. Results demonstrate that simulation is fast, taking 300–400 runs to converge. A comparison of two system configurations shows that the use of heat storage increases the daily expected profit by 11%. Finally, the electricity price volatility in this case study is such that mainly two CHP units are operating for most of the time.

SUBCONTRACTING MANAGEMENT IN AN EPC PROJECT: A CASE STUDY OF DELAY RISKS

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Puti Farida Tamin ◽  
Dian Perwitasari ◽  
Rizal Tamin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Infrastructure Project ◽  
Qualitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Critical Project

Subcontracting was adopted in a major EPC power generating infrastructure project in South-Sumatera, Indonesia. The completion of this project, which was executed in the framework of the government’s alternative energy power generation acceleration endeavor, was delayed. This paper analyzes subcontracting management as the main cause of the delay. A data collecting survey, which included interviews with project respondents, was conducted in the objective to obtain their perception on delay risk caused by subcontracting management. A risk factor list was created based on this survey. A qualitative risk analysis was used to assess the risk extent. 18 risk factors with high and significant levels are presented. The list of risk factors in each of the EPC project’s phases was then used in analyzing the project’s completion delay. It is shown that the main contractor’s lack of experience in the work’s subcontracting management has caused miscommunications in engineering phase, tender process miscalculations, lack of procured materials and equipment quality, imperfect construction preparation, imperfect commissioning, and reworks. Construction was identified as the most critical project phase due to a relatively high number of subcontractors involved in the work and the complexity of the EPC project. The interaction of the whole factors finally caused project completion delay.

scholarly journals Risks Analysis and Response of Forecast-Based Operation for Ankang Reservoir Flood Control

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhao Liu ◽  
Jiawei Lyu ◽  
Zhifeng Jia ◽  
Lixia Wang ◽  
Bin Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Information Collection ◽  
Remedial Measures ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Sources ◽  
Regulation Method ◽  
Flood Regulation

With the improvement of short-term flood forecasting and short-term rainfall forecast accuracy, as well as the advance of hydrological and meteorological information collection and collation methods, the reservoir flood regulation method taking rainfall or inflow forecast into consideration is gaining more and more attention. As the index of Forecast-Based Operation (FBO), the forecasted factor plays an important part in determining success or failure of FBO due to its uncertainty and accuracy. In this study, possible risk sources were analyzed considering the process and the characteristics of reservoir flood regulation firstly, and the uncertainty of the forecast information and the FBO risks were discussed based on hypothesis testing. Then, combined with the case study of applying FBO on Ankang Reservoir, in which the forecasted net rainfall was selected as the index of the FBO rules, the probability distribution of the forecasted net rainfall errors was derived as the basis of risk analysis. Finally, FBO risk analysis was conducted based on Monte Carlo method for several real flood processes, while a simulation was also carried out with the Conventional Operation (CO) for contrast. The results indicate that the maximum risk was reduced more than half when FBO was adopted. Consequently, the possible remedial measures were put forward in the case of invalid forecast happened based on simulation and the analysis of the principle of flood regulation. The conclusions and methods in this research provide ideas for real-time flood regulation and risk management of reservoirs.

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