Unemployment Rates Forecasting with Grey-Based Models in the Post-COVID-19 Period: A Case Study from Vietnam

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on most countries’ social and economic perspectives worldwide. Unemployment has become a vital challenge for policymakers as a result of COVID-19′s negative impact. Because of the nonstationary and nonlinear nature of the dataset, researchers applied various time series models to forecast the unemployment rate. This study aims to ensure a better forecasting approach for predicting the unemployment rates with an uncertainty of insufficient knowledge and tiny data throughout Vietnam. The study proposes the Grey theory system-based GM (1,1), the Grey Verhulst Model (GVM), and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model that can more precisely predict unemployment rates. The model’s applications are shown using the Vietnamese unemployment rate at six different rural and urban areas with data sets from 2014–2019. The results indicate that the lower Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) values obtained with the GM (1,1) model at all regions for rural and urban areas (excluding Highlands Region in urban area) are extremely encouraging in comparison to other traditional methods. The accurate level of the ARIMA and GVM models follows the GM (1,1) model. The findings of this study show that the effects of the modeling assist policymakers in shaping future labor and economic policies. Furthermore, this study can contribute to the unemployment literature, providing future research directions in the unemployment problems.

Download Full-text

ICT

E-Innovation for Sustainable Development of Rural Resources During Global Economic Crisis - Practice, Progress, and Proficiency in Sustainability ◽

10.4018/978-1-4666-4550-9.ch003 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 22-34

Author(s):

Julián Briz ◽

José María Duran ◽

Isabel Felipe ◽

Teresa Briz

Keyword(s):

Rural Communities ◽

Information And Communication Technologies ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Communication Technologies ◽

Future Research ◽

Rural And Urban Areas ◽

Rural And Urban ◽

Information And Communication ◽

Future Research Directions ◽

The University

Agriculture is facing new challenges in rural and urban areas, and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) may play a significant role. In this chapter, there is a background description of the ICT sector in the interface of urban and rural communities within the framework of agriculture. It describes some case analyses focused in agronomy and social sciences. In agronomy, the focuses are environment, food production, and pollution. In socioeconomics, there is a brief identification of ICT applications such as the collaboration between the university and firms. Considering the heterogeneousness of the analysis, the future research directions include different methods of studies for ICT programs (house of quality, structural organization, and others).

Download Full-text

Place attachment and disasters: Knowns and unknowns

Journal of Emergency Management ◽

10.5055/jem.2016.0299 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 14 (5) ◽

pp. 349 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Mehdi Jamali, MS ◽

Ali Nejat, PhD

Keyword(s):

Urban Areas ◽

Place Attachment ◽

Disaster Recovery ◽

Future Research ◽

Community Attachment ◽

Job Status ◽

Rural And Urban Areas ◽

Spatial Category ◽

Rural And Urban ◽

Living Area

When considering the factors important for disaster recovery, one must consider the attachment individuals have toward their living area. This article reviews and synthesizes the current literature on the determinants of place attachment in the context of postdisaster recovery. Although the majority of the reviewed articles focused on disaster recovery, there were some which had a broader scope and were included due to their importance. This research categorizes the determinants of place attachment into four categories: demographic, socioeconomic, spatial, and psychosocial. Age, ethnicity, and religion were grouped under the category of demographics. Job status, education, and property ownership were categorized under the socioeconomic category. Attachment to home, neighborhood, and city, together with attachment to rural and urban areas, were grouped under the spatial category. Finally, mental health status and community attachment were classified under the psychosocial heading. Based on the outcome of the aforementioned synthesis, this article develops a conceptual framework to guide future research.

Download Full-text

Thinking of Village Construction in Central Region under the Context of Labor Migration

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.507.666 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 507 ◽

pp. 666-674

Author(s):

Pan Yi ◽

Li Xin ◽

Sheng Yu Guo

Keyword(s):

Central Region ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Labor Migration ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Floating Population ◽

Rapid Urbanization ◽

Rural And Urban Areas ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Rural And Urban

China’s 30 years’ rapid urbanization process is not a usual one but a particular process promoted in the dual social-economic structure like household registration policy and land system, According to the sixth census, China's floating population has reached 261 million, that is, among every three Chinese city's residents, there is one person belonging to the “Migrant-urbanization” group made up of migrant peasant workers. Large number of rural labor migration, on the one hand, it causes false components in the process of urbanization, on the other hand, it brings a lot of problems to village construction of the central region which is considered as population exporter. It also somehow gradually formed the result of the "amphibious" population who was not engaged in agricultural production, localization tendency of rural industries, sidelined agriculture, and the disordered development of towns and villages. This paper is based on the background that regional labor movement from backward areas to developed coastal areas.Furthermore, this paper analyzes both the positive effects and the negative impact of labor migration which brought about to the construction of the central region village in China. Finally, this paper proposed three strategies about construction of the central region village in China with the aim to contribute to the much better sustainable development of rural villages and improve the co-development of both the rural and urban areas, first, how to arrange the surplus rural laborers; how to make rural land use more economically and intensively; and how to balance the development of urban and rural areas.

Download Full-text

Statistical evaluation of unemployment problems in Ukraine

Economics. Finances. Law ◽

10.37634/efp.2019.12.3 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 14-18

Author(s):

Ihor TARLOPOV ◽

Vlada OLEKSIIENKO

Keyword(s):

Unemployment Rate ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Age Groups ◽

Modern Society ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Age Group ◽

Rural And Urban Areas ◽

Active Population ◽

Rural And Urban

The article investigates and analyzes the unemployment rate in Ukraine for a certain period (2000-2018). The general state of the unemployment market of Ukraine is considered. We compared the number of unemployed in rural and urban areas, and identified the causes and methods of overcoming and reducing unemployment. The unemployment rate of Ukraine was compared with the developed countries of the world, namely with Japan, Great Britain, USA and Poland. a comparison of the number of unemployed in rural and urban areas. Labor market and unemployment surveys were conducted. Analyzes the economically active population of Ukraine (2000 - 2018). Different age groups are considered, their economic activity for January - June 2019, it is recognized what age groups prevail in the unemployment market, why they proposed methods of increasing their economic activity. We attributed the economically active population to eight age groups: the first age group - 15-24 years, the second age group - 25 - 29 years, the third age group - 30-34 years, the fourth age group - 35-39 years, the fifth age group - 40-49 years old, sixth age group 50-59 years old, seventh age group 60-69 years old, and the last age group - people 70+ The number of unemployed in rural and urban areas by age group for January - June 2019 is compared, the prevailing and least economically active age group is determined. Based on our research and data analysis, we will be able to offer methods of solving the unemployment problem. Based on the results of the study conducted in this article, we will be able to provide recommendations on how to reduce unemployment among Ukrainians. Unemployment is one of the most pressing problems of modern society, an integral part of a market economy. Based on the data analyzed, the unemployment rate will increase and adversely affect the efficiency of Ukraine's economic activity, if the issue related to overcoming this phenomenon is not resolved. That is why to overcome this phenomenon we need to apply the developed methods.

Download Full-text

Associations of the Initial COVID-19 Lockdown on Self-Reported Happiness and Worry about Developing Loneliness: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Rural, Regional, and Urban Australian Communities

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18189501 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (18) ◽

pp. 9501

Author(s):

Vivian Isaac ◽

Teresa Cheng ◽

Louise Townsin ◽

Hassan Assareh ◽

Amy Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Urban Communities ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Postgraduate Education ◽

Well Being ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Rural And Urban Areas ◽

Rural And Urban ◽

Sectional Analysis

Australia adopted hard lockdown measures to eliminate community transmission of COVID-19. Lockdown imposes periods of social isolation that contributes to increased levels of stress, anxiety, depression, loneliness, and worry. We examined whether lockdowns have similar psychosocial associations across rural and urban areas and whether associations existed between happiness and worry of loneliness in the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. Data were collected using the “COVID-19 Living Survey” between 13 and 20 May 2020 by BehaviourWorks Australia at the Monash Sustainable Development Institute. The mean self-reported feeling of happiness and anxiousness (N = 1593), on a 10-point Likert scale with 0 being least happy or highly anxious, was 6.5 (SD = 2.4) and 3.9 (2.9), respectively. Factors associated with happiness were older age and having a postgraduate education. Participants worried about becoming lonely also exhibited reduced happiness (estimate = −1.58, 95%CI = −1.84–−1.32) and higher anxiousness (2.22, 1.93–2.51) scores, and these conditions remained associated after adjusting for demographics. Interestingly, worry about loneliness was greater in rural areas than in urban communities. The negative impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on rural youth and those less-educated was evident. Participants in rural Australia who were worried about becoming lonely were reportedly less happy than participants in major cities. This dataset provides a better understanding of factors that influence psychological well-being and quality of life in the Australian population and helps to determine whether happiness may be an associative factor that could mitigate self-feelings of anxiety and worry about loneliness.

Download Full-text

Students’ Errors in Solving Science Reasoning-Domain of Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS)

Jurnal Pendidikan IPA Indonesia ◽

10.15294/jpii.v7i1.11352 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 48-53 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

A. P. Utomo ◽

K. Yuana ◽

E. Narulita ◽

K. Fikri ◽

B. Wahono

Keyword(s):

Urban Areas ◽

Cognitive Domain ◽

Error Type ◽

Science Reasoning ◽

Average Percentage ◽

Rural And Urban Areas ◽

Descriptive Research ◽

Judgment Error ◽

Rural And Urban ◽

Qualitative Descriptive

This research aims to identify the errors of students’ answers in solving the TIMSS cognitive domain of reasoning. This research was a qualitative descriptive research. A total 259 students from four secondary schools located in rural and urban areas in Jember, East Java participated in a paper and pencil test. Error identification was examined by reducing the result of wrong students’ answer and grouping based on error type of general errors. The results showed that the average percentage of total errors from the four schools were contradicting error of 7.3%, disregarding evidence error of 5.2%, misreading error of 45.7%, and opinion-based judgment error of 40.9%. In conclusion, there were four types of general errors made by students in answering TIMMS test item of reasoning domain with misreading and disregarding evidence as the highest and lowest error, respectively.

Download Full-text

Patterns of and Copying with Cyberbullying in Croatia

The International Journal of Person Centered Medicine ◽

10.5750/ijpcm.v4i4.489 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

pp. 251-256

Author(s):

Gordana Buljan Flander ◽

Domagoj Stimac ◽

Ella Selak Bagaric ◽

Maks Vinscak

Keyword(s):

Social Networks ◽

Social Network ◽

Child Protection ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Population Based ◽

Academic Community ◽

Future Research ◽

Rural And Urban Areas ◽

Abusive Behavior ◽

Rural And Urban

Aims. Children’s online activities can result in serious consequences in their offline lives. Although Facebook is one of the biggest and most popular social networks in the world, there is little scientific research on cyberbullying via this social network because it is a new phenomenon. This study had the aim of examining children's behavior and experiences of violence on the Facebook social network. This seems to be the first research on cyberbullying on social networks in Croatia.Methods. Data presented in this paper were collected as part of an extensive research project conducted in 2013 by NGO Brave Phone and The Child Protection Center of Zagreb. The sample consisted of 1,489 children in Croatia aged 11 to 18 in rural and urban areas that completed the Scale of Victimization on Facebook and Scale of Committing Violence via Facebook.Results. Our results show that the average age when cyberbullying is most prevalent is between the ages of 15 and 16. In the overall sample, 12.1% of them experience abuse on Facebook, while 9.6% of them are abusive. The analysis of the children who were involved in abuse on Facebook in any way, showed that 44.4% of them experienced abuse, 29.7% showed abusive behavior, while 25.9% of children both experienced abuse and were abusive on Facebook. Victims are mostly girls (60%), while boys commit cyberbullying more often (62%). Also, 58% of mixed cybervictims and cyberbullies are boys.Discussion. The results of prevalence of cyberbullying in our study are similar to those of previous population based studies. It is important to point out that although the prevalence of bullying was high; it is mostly a rare experience for the majority of children.Conclusions. Cyberbullying is a serious and growing problem and the academic community has to continue with the extensive research and development of practical prevention and intervention programs. Future research aimed at examining methods of coping with negative experiences on the Internet is necessary and there is a strong need for more research considering coping strategies of adolescents struggling with cyber victimization.

Download Full-text