Reforming China’s Pension Scheme for Urban Workers: Liquidity Gap and Policies’ Effects Forecasting

The need to focus on banks funding structure and stress testing in an explicit way arose as a consequence of the crisis of past decades. Liquidity risks usually occur as a consequence of other kinds of risks, hence analysing scenarios in a prospective manner is essential for the assessment if the bank can fulfill its obligations as they come due and if its funding costs are appropriate. The structural liquidity risk and the degree of the liquidity mismatch can be measured based on the liquidity gap analysis, where expected cash-in- and outflows, divided in different time-buckets are depicted. The liquidity gap report (LGR) shows if a liquidity shortcoming appears in the future and how high is the amount a bank would have to pay, if any hedging were not possible. This paper shows how to build a comprehensive LGR which is the base for both, liquidity and wealth risk evaluation. To improve the accuracy of the forecast, the counterbalancing capacity will be incorporated into the LGR. This tool is a methodological basis for quantitative and qualitative risk assessment and stress testing.

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Pension Reform in Russia: Assessing the Susceptibility of GDP Production to a Shift in the Number of the Working-Age Population

Economics and Management ◽

10.35854/1998-1627-2019-9-80-86 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 80-86

Author(s):

T. P. Skufina ◽

S. V. Baranov

Keyword(s):

Pension Reform ◽

Fixed Capital ◽

Economic Effects ◽

Pension Scheme ◽

Retirement Age ◽

Working Age ◽

Working Age Population ◽

Long Term Forecasting ◽

The Impact

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.

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The Impacts of Demographic Changes on Pension Scheme and Capital Market Return

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.2029650 ◽

2012 ◽

Author(s):

Tristan Nguyen ◽

Ralf Stuetzle

Keyword(s):

Capital Market ◽

Pension Scheme ◽

Demographic Changes ◽

Market Return

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Pension Scheme Designs: Can It Influence Timing of Retirement? The Case of the Public Service Pension Scheme in Uganda

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3380969 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Kibs Boaz Muhanguzi

Keyword(s):

Public Service ◽

Pension Scheme ◽

The Public

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AGRICULTURAL WORKERS’ STANDARD OF LIVING DURING CENTRAL CHILE'S AGRARIAN EXPANSION, CF. 1870-1930

Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History ◽

10.1017/s0212610921000100 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-30

Author(s):

Claudio Robles-Ortiz ◽

Ignacio González-Correa ◽

Nora Reyes Campos ◽

Uziel González Aliaga

Keyword(s):

Living Standards ◽

Standard Of Living ◽

Real Wages ◽

Causal Factors ◽

Central Chile ◽

Rural Workers ◽

The Great Depression ◽

Urban Workers ◽

Wage Labour ◽

Agricultural Labourers

ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to determine trends in the wages and living standards of male agricultural labourers in Central Chile during the agrarian expansion, c. 1870-1930. We found that nominal wages increased eightfold; this is relevant because wage labour became the main rural labour regime in this period. Nominal wages rose steadily from the early 1870s until 1910, and with significant fluctuations thereafter, before plummeting with the Great Depression. Real wages also increased, but only slightly. Furthermore, during certain short periods, agricultural labourers' real wages were similar to or higher than those of low-skilled urban workers. However, the persistent gap between agricultural and non-agricultural wages was one of the causal factors of the outmigration of rural workers.

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Robert Glen. Urban Workers in the Early Industrial Revolution. (Croom Helm Studies in Society and History.) New York: St. Martin's or Croom Helm, London. 1984. Pp. 348. $30.00

The American Historical Review ◽

10.1086/ahr/90.1.131 ◽

1985 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

Industrial Revolution ◽

Urban Workers

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Demography and Dispossession: Explaining the Growth of the Global Informal Workforce, 1950-2000

Social Science History ◽

10.1017/ssh.2019.34 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 43 (4) ◽

pp. 679-703

Author(s):

Aaron Benanav

Keyword(s):

Labor Force ◽

High Income ◽

Informal Employment ◽

Urban Migration ◽

Demographic Expansion ◽

Urban Workers ◽

Urban Labor ◽

Rural To Urban Migration ◽

Global Population ◽

Demographic Growth

AbstractSince 1950, the world’s urban labor force has expanded dramatically, a process that has been accompanied by a large increase in informal employment. Accounts of these phenomena generally assume that urban workers without formal work are mostly recent migrants from the countryside. This article shows that outside of China, most of the growth of the world’s urban workforce has been the consequence of demographic expansion rather than rural-to-urban migration. A large portion of the world’s growing urban-born workforce has ended up in informal employment. I develop a concept of demographic dispossession to explain the relatively autonomous role demographic growth has played, first, in the proletarianization of the global population and, second, in the informalization of the urban workforce. I then explore the reasons why demographic growth in low- and medium-income countries tended to be more rapid and urban than demographic growth had been historically in the high-income countries.

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The Place of Lump-Sum Benefits in Superannuation Schemes

Journal of the Staple Inn Actuarial Society ◽

10.1017/s0020269x00007064 ◽

1960 ◽

Vol 16 (01) ◽

pp. 3-22

Author(s):

P. R. Francis

Keyword(s):

Local Government ◽

Pension Scheme ◽

Government Service ◽

The Public ◽

Insurance Contracts ◽

Lump Sum ◽

Considerable Success ◽

Industry And Commerce

It has long been recognized by statute and by general consent that the main purpose of a pension scheme is the provision of annuities for employees on their retirement and for the dependants of employees who die either in service or after retirement. In recent years, however, the provision of lump-sum benefits in addition to annuities has become widespread; in national and local government service, and in some of the public boards, superannuation arrangements include the provision of lump sums on a substantial scale. In industry and commerce, the advantages of tax-free lump sums have been vigorously sold, with considerable success, by brokers specializing in pension-scheme business.The objects of this paper are to place such claims in perspective and to explain in broad terms the various methods by which lump-sum benefits may be provided. Reference will be made to insured and to privately administered schemes, but the detailed provisions of trust deeds and insurance contracts are not within the scope of this paper.

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