Geomorphology-Based Analysis of Flood Critical Areas in Small Hilly Catchments for Civil Protection Purposes and Early Warning Systems: The Case of the Feltrino Stream and the Lanciano Urban Area (Abruzzo, Central Italy)

This work is based on a drainage basin-scale geomorphological investigation combined with flood modeling. It is focused on the assessment of flood critical areas for the implementation of a geomorphology-based urban Early Warning System (EWS) in the urban area of Lanciano and the Feltrino Stream basin (a minor coastal basin of the Abruzzo hills, Central Italy). This area was investigated by combining: pre-existing geological, geomorphological, and hazard data and new detailed field surveys and mapping of geomorphological and hydrographical features (superficial and buried natural and urban stream network). The study was integrated with 2D flood numerical modeling for verifying the expected flooded areas and calibrating the critical areas. All the collected data were integrated into a geodatabase, and an expert-based approach through a geomorphology-based matrix allowed us to define the main categories of flood critical areas. The assessment of the critical areas supported the emplacement of a network of rainfall, temperature, and flood gauges. The geodatabase, the derived critical areas, and the gauge network contributed to set up an urban EWS, integrated with the regional forecast-based warning system. This system provides combined forecast-based, rainfall threshold-based, and flood monitoring-based alerts for floods. It incorporates communication tools for civil protection management. Finally, the EWS provides a tool for civil protection purposes and for the management of flood critical areas and the mitigation of the related risks by local authorities and will be integrated with sensors related to other hazards (i.e., landslides, wind, etc.).

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Geomorphologically based early warning system for flood events in minor hilly catchments and local urban areas: a case study in the Abruzzo region (Central Italy)

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15139 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Tommaso Piacentini ◽

Enrico Miccadei ◽

Cristiano Carabella ◽

Fausto Boccabella ◽

Silvia Ferrante ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Heavy Rainfall ◽

Central Italy ◽

Warning System ◽

Civil Protection ◽

Rainfall Events ◽

Critical Areas ◽

Heavy Rainfall Events

Urban and small catchments flooding is a common type of natural hazard caused by intense rainfall, which may cause inundation to roads, buildings, and infrastructure, interrupting transportation, power lines and, other critical urban infrastructure systems, damaging properties and threatening people&#8217;s lives. The expansion of urban areas and infrastructure over the last 50 years has led to a marked increase in flood risk.The coastal and hilly areas of Central Italy have been largely affected by heavy rainfall and flood/flash-flood events in recent times. The Apennine hilly piedmont and the coastal hills of Abruzzo have been affected by moderate to heavy events (rainfall >35 mm/h and 100-220 mm/d), which caused damages to minor and major urban areas. In this study, the Feltrino Stream area and the Lanciano town were investigated for the realization of a local early warning system for heavy rainfall events and flooding. The project is funded by the Abruzzo Region within the frame of a regional Project named &#8220;Communicate to protect&#8221; and developed in collaboration with the Lanciano Municipality and with the Regional Civil Protection office.The Feltrino Stream basin is located in the hilly area of southeastern Abruzzo, in the eastern piedmont of the Maiella massif (Central Apennines). The basin ranges from about 400 m a.s.l. to sea level, with an overall morphology characterized by a mesa and plateau relief and SW-NE elongated valleys. The Lanciano Town is developed on a mesa relief carved by minor valleys, largely modified and filled by anthropic activities.In this work, the Feltrino Stream was investigated through a drainage basin scale geomorphological analysis incorporating (i) the morphometry of orography and hydrography, (ii) temperature and rainfall data analysis, (iii) acquisition of available geological, geomorphological, and hazard data, (iv) detail urban hydrography analysis and geomorphological field mapping, for the definition of a geodatabase of the geo-hydrological critical areas. The analysis allowed defining the arrangement of a rainfall, hydrometry and flood monitoring system integrating at local scale the existing regional monitoring network. The integration of the monitoring system and the critical areas in a web cloud digital system allowed to plan and realize an early warning system, based on the use of a digital app for smartphone. The warning system is being calibrated for the effectiveness during heavy rainfall events. After calibration, the system will support the local civil protection activities of the Lanciano Municipality. Moreover, under the supervision of the civil protection responsible, it is expected to be implemented as an automatic system for smartphone-based early warning of people exploiting the inbuilt geolocalization features of the recent smartphone.

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Brief communication "Landslide Early Warning System: toolbox and general concepts"

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-13-85-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 85-90 ◽

Cited By ~ 79

Author(s):

E. Intrieri ◽

G. Gigli ◽

N. Casagli ◽

F. Nadim

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Warning System ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

End Users ◽

Flow Chart ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Limited Experience ◽

Practical Guidelines ◽

Landslide Early Warning

Abstract. We define landslide Early Warning Systems and present practical guidelines to assist end-users with limited experience in the design of landslide Early Warning Systems (EWSs). In particular, two flow chart-based tools coming from the results of the SafeLand project (7th Framework Program) have been created to make them as simple and general as possible and in compliance with a variety of landslide types and settings at single slope scale. We point out that it is not possible to cover all the real landslide early warning situations that might occur, therefore it will be necessary for end-users to adapt the procedure to local peculiarities of the locations where the landslide EWS will be operated.

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Communication architecture of an early warning system

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-10-2215-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 2215-2228 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

M. Angermann ◽

M. Guenther ◽

K. Wendlandt

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Satellite Communication ◽

Warning System ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Communication Architecture ◽

Design And Implementation ◽

Communication Links

Abstract. This article discusses aspects of communication architecture for early warning systems (EWS) in general and gives details of the specific communication architecture of an early warning system against tsunamis. While its sensors are the "eyes and ears" of a warning system and enable the system to sense physical effects, its communication links and terminals are its "nerves and mouth" which transport measurements and estimates within the system and eventually warnings towards the affected population. Designing the communication architecture of an EWS against tsunamis is particularly challenging. Its sensors are typically very heterogeneous and spread several thousand kilometers apart. They are often located in remote areas and belong to different organizations. Similarly, the geographic spread of the potentially affected population is wide. Moreover, a failure to deliver a warning has fatal consequences. Yet, the communication infrastructure is likely to be affected by the disaster itself. Based on an analysis of the criticality, vulnerability and availability of communication means, we describe the design and implementation of a communication system that employs both terrestrial and satellite communication links. We believe that many of the issues we encountered during our work in the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009) on the design and implementation communication architecture are also relevant for other types of warning systems. With this article, we intend to share our insights and lessons learned.

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The Role of Seismological Networks in Civil Protection in Low and High Seismic Hazards

Periodica Polytechnica Civil Engineering ◽

10.3311/ppci.17508 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Erzsébet Győri ◽

Arman Bulatovich Kussainov ◽

Gyöngyvér Szanyi ◽

Zoltán Gráczer ◽

Kendebay Zhanabilovich Raimbekov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Economic Losses ◽

Civil Protection ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Ground Shaking ◽

Research Areas ◽

Seismic Networks ◽

Strong Ground

Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters on Earth, causing sometimes huge economic losses and many human casualties. Since earthquake prediction is not yet possible, the purpose of civil protection is to reduce damage and protect human lives, in which the seismological networks of different countries play a very important role. Special applications of seismic networks are the early warning systems that can be used to protect vulnerable infrastructures using automated shutdown procedures, to stop high velocity trains and to save lives if the general public is notified about imminent strong ground shaking. In this paper, we describe the aims and operation of seismological networks, covering in more detail the early warning systems. Then we delineate the seismotectonic settings and seismicity in Hungary and Kazakhstan, furthermore, describe the operating seismological networks and the related scientific research areas with emphasis on civil protection. Hungary and Kazakhstan differ not only in the size of their territory, but also in their seismicity, therefore, in addition to the similarities, there are also significant differences between the aims and problems of their seismological networks.

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On building early-warning systems for preventing the deterioration of financial institutions’ performance

Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Statistics ◽

10.2478/icas-2019-0017 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 194-202

Author(s):

Adrian Costea

Keyword(s):

Financial Institutions ◽

Early Warning ◽

Warning System ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Capital Adequacy ◽

Self Organizing Map ◽

Self Organizing Maps ◽

Performance Dimensions ◽

Som Model ◽

Self Organizing

Abstract This paper assesses the financial performance of Romania’s non-banking financial institutions (NFIs) using a neural network training algorithm proposed by Kohonen, namely the Self-Organizing Maps algorithm. The algorithm takes the financial dataset and positiones each observation into a self-organizing map (a two-dimensional map) which can be latter used to visualize the trajectories of an individual NFI and explain it based on different performance dimensions, such as capital adequacy, assets’ quality and profitability. Further, we use the map as an early-warning system that would accurately forecast the NFIs future performance (whether they would stay or be eliminated from the NFI’s Special Register three quarters into the future). The results are promising: the model is able to correctly predict NFIs’ performance movements. Finally, we compared the results of our SOM-based model with those obtained by applying a multivariate logit-based model. The SOM model performed worse in discriminating the NFIs’ performance: the performance classes were not clearly defined and the model lacked the interpretability of the results. In the contrary, the multivariate logit coefficients have nice interpretability and an individual default probability estimate is obtained for each new observation. However, we can benefit from the results of both techniques: the visualization capabilities of the SOM model and the interpretability of multivariate logit-based model.

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Toward a typology of weak-signal early alert systems: functional early warning systems in the post-COVID age

Online Information Review ◽

10.1108/oir-11-2020-0513 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Jan Černý ◽

Martin Potančok ◽

Elias Castro Hernandez

Keyword(s):

Peer Review ◽

Early Warning ◽

Warning System ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Weak Signal ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Weak Signals ◽

Content Type ◽

Human In The Loop ◽

Early Alert Systems

PurposeThe study aims to expand on the concept of an early warning system (EWS) by introducing weak-signal detection, human-in-the-loop (HIL) verification and response tuning as integral parts of an EWS's design.Design/methodology/approachThe authors bibliographically highlight the evolution of EWS over the last 30+ years, discuss instances of EWSs in various types of organizations and industries and highlight limitations of current systems.FindingsProposed system to be used in the transforming of weak signals to early warnings and associated weak/strong responses.Originality/valueThe authors contribute to existing literature by presenting (1) novel approaches to dealing with some of the well-known issues associated with contemporary EWS and (2) an event-agnostic heuristic for dealing with weak signals.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/OIR-11-2020-0513.

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Torrent Monitoring and Early Warning Systems Development

10.4018/978-1-7998-8459-0.ch010 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. 195-216

Author(s):

Dejan Vasović ◽

Ratko Ristić ◽

Muhamed Bajrić

Keyword(s):

Emergency Management ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Catchment Area ◽

Warning System ◽

Modern Society ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Small Catchment ◽

National Emergency

The level of sustainability of a modern society is associated with the ability to manage unwanted stressors from the environment, regardless of origin. Torrential floods represent a hydrological hazard whose frequency and intensity have increased in recent years, mainly due to climate changes. In order to effectively manage the risks of torrents, it is necessary to apply early warning systems, since torrential floods are formed very quickly, especially on the watercourses of a small catchment area. The early warning system is part of a comprehensive torrential flood risk management system, seen as a technical entity for the collection, transformation, and rapid distribution of data. Modern early warning systems are the successors of rudimentary methods used in the past, and they are based on ICT and mobile applications developed in relation to the requirements of end users. The chapter presents an analysis of characteristic examples of the use. The main conclusion of the chapter indicates the need to implement early warning systems in national emergency management structures.

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KLR Approach as an Early Warning Indicator of Turkish Currency and Banking Crisis in 2000 and 2001

Advances in Finance, Accounting, and Economics - Handbook of Research on Financial and Banking Crisis Prediction through Early Warning Systems ◽

10.4018/978-1-4666-9484-2.ch011 ◽

2016 ◽

pp. 222-239

Author(s):

Filiz Eryılmaz

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Financial Stability ◽

Banking Crisis ◽

Warning System ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Window Approach ◽

Global Growth

International organizations as private sector institutions started to develop Early Warning System [EWS] models aiming to anticipate whether and when individual countries can collide with a financial crisis. EWS models can be made most useful to help sustain global growth and maintain financial stability, especially in light of the lessons learned from the current and past crises. This paper proposes Early Warning Systems (EWS) for Turkish Currency and Banking Crisis in 2000 and 2001. To that end “KLR model” or “signaling window” approach developed by Kaminski, Lorezondo and Reinhart (1998) is testified in the empirical part of this research and applied to a sample of Turkey macroeconomic data for the 1998-2003 monthly periods.

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Recognizing the Famine Early Warning Systems Network: Over 30 Years of Drought Early Warning Science Advances and Partnerships Promoting Global Food Security

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-17-0233.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 100 (6) ◽

pp. 1011-1027 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Chris Funk ◽

Shraddhanand Shukla ◽

Wassila Mamadou Thiaw ◽

James Rowland ◽

Andrew Hoell ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Early Warning ◽

Warning System ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Food Prices ◽

Humanitarian Assistance ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Recent Climate ◽

Drought Early Warning

AbstractOn a planet with a population of more than 7 billion, how do we identify the millions of drought-afflicted people who face a real threat of livelihood disruption or death without humanitarian assistance? Typically, these people are poor and heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture and livestock. Most live in Africa, Central America, or Southwest Asia. When the rains fail, incomes diminish while food prices increase, cutting off the poorest (most often women and children) from access to adequate nutrition. As seen in Ethiopia in 1984 and Somalia in 2011, food shortages can lead to famine. Yet these slow-onset disasters also provide opportunities for effective intervention, as seen in Ethiopia in 2015 and Somalia in 2017. Since 1985, the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has been providing evidence-based guidance for effective humanitarian relief efforts. FEWS NET depends on a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) to help understand, monitor, model, and predict food insecurity. Here we provide an overview of FEWS NET’s DEWS using examples from recent climate extremes. While drought monitoring and prediction provides just one part of FEWS NET’s monitoring system, it draws from many disciplines—remote sensing, climate prediction, agroclimatic monitoring, and hydrologic modeling. Here we describe FEWS NET’s multiagency multidisciplinary DEWS and Food Security Outlooks. This DEWS uses diagnostic analyses to guide predictions. Midseason droughts are monitored using multiple cutting-edge Earth-observing systems. Crop and hydrologic models can translate these observations into impacts. The resulting information feeds into FEWS NET reports, helping to save lives by motivating and targeting timely humanitarian assistance.

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